The Republican Party is in a quandary -  they’ve lost the popular vote in 5 of the last 6 Presidential elections. So, what to do? They could change and not promote such hard right policies. But naw, that’s not the Republican way. Besides, any success they’ve had in the last few years has been largely due to the fringe far right Tea Party. And there’s a simpler way: If you can’t win the hearts and minds of voters, just change the way their votes count.

We already have an illegitimate Congress – Democratic House candidates received over a million more votes than Republican House candidates received,with Democrats wining a majority of 50.5% of the vote to the Republicans 49.5%. But the Republicans control the House with 53.7% of the seats belonging to Republicans. How? Simple – gerrymandering. You pack the densely Democratic areas – mostly urban centers – into a select few districts, and then mix the more evenly divided suburban areas in with heavily Republican rural areas, and voila! You have a majority of congressional districts favoring Republicans even while statewide it’s a Blue state. The Tea Party wave of 2010 swept Republicans into control of state legislatures and the Governorship of a number of Blue states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Michigan, and into control of a number of swing states such as Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. And they went right to work gerrymandering the hell out of their Congressional Districts. Just look at the 2012 election results: President Obama carried Michigan by 9 points, but Michigan’s Congressional delegation? 9 Republican Congressmen and only 5 Democrats. Obama carried Pennsylvania by just under 5 points, while its Congressional delegation is 13 Republicans and only 5 Democrats. And Ohio? Obama carried it my just under 3% (much to Karl Rove’s disbelief), while its Congressional delegation is 75% Republican , 12 Republicans to only 4 Democrats. Such a disparity in the results for President and the resulting makeup of the Congressional delegation is due only to gerrymandering the vast majority of districts to favor Republicans. And that’s I call  it an illegitimate House of Representatives – because it doesn’t represent the will of the voters, it represents the dirty tricks of politicians. And yes, to be fair, the Democratic dominated legislature in Illinois returned the favor and gerrymandered a couple Republican districts, causing a couple incumbent Republicans to lose last November. I’m against gerrymandering, whoever does it.

Compare what happened in those Midwestern states carried by President Obama but the congressional districts were gerrymandered by Republican controlled legislatures to the election results here in Arizona, where districts are set by an Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) instead of by politicians. Romney carried Arizona 54-45%, but our Congressional delegation is 5-4 Democratic. Aha! you say? That proves Republican claims that the  IRC drew maps to favor Democrats? No, look again: Here in CD2 Republican Martha McSally came within 2500 votes of defeating Ron Barber. In CD1 Republican Jonathon Paton came within 9200 votes of defeating Ann Kirkpatrick and in the new CD9 Republican Vernon Parker came within 10,400 votes of defeating Kyrsten Sinema. Those 3 districts are swing districts, and in a Republican year such as 2010 all 3 could swing to the Republicans, resulting in 7-2 Republican delegation. The IRC drew 4 “safe” Republican districts, 2 safe Democratic districts, and 3 swing districts, and that’s pretty much in line with our statewide voter registration of 36% Republican, 32% Independent, and 31% Democrat. While President Obama isn’t terribly popular here, Democratic Senate candidate Richard Carmona did much better, losing to Jeff Flake by only 3%. Swing districts are fair districts because either major party can carry them, and the current Congressman or Congresswoman had better pay close to the needs and views of his or her district, because if they make very many unpopular votes in Congress they can easily wind up on the losing side in the next election. Gerrymandered districts are far from fair – in most of those gerrymandered Republican districts the current officeholder fears a primary challenge from the right far more than they fear a Democratic opponent.

But back to the Republican quandary of how to win the Presidency. They were so sure they could defeat Obama that they even put up a rich guy moderate that nobody liked but were sure could beat the pants off that Obama guy. And they still got their butts kicked, by over 5 million popular votes and a landslide 62% of the Electoral vote. And then they had what they though was a stroke of genius: let’s change the way those Electoral votes are awarded! Instead of all the state’s electoral votes going to the winner of the statewide vote, they want to award by winner of those gerrymandered congressional districts. But not in Red states, of course! That would only help Democrats. Red states like Texas where Obama won 42% of the popular vote but got 0 of it’s 38 electoral votes. No, if the electoral vote was awarded to the winner of congressional districts in places like Texas Obama would have walked away with at least 12 electoral votes. We can’t have that! So, in true Republican tradition they want to change the rules only when & where it favors them, so want only only those swing states to award votes to the winner of congressional districts – Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. A bill has already passed a legislative committee in Virginia that would award the 1 electoral vote to the winner of each Congressional district, and then the remaining 2 electoral votes to the winner of the most congressional districts. Yes, you read that right – not to the statewide winner, but to who wins the most gerrymandered congressional districts. We’ve got to stack this in our favor as much as possible! Had that been effect in the 2012 election, President Obama would have defeated Mitt Romney 51-47% in the statewide vote, but Romney would have won 10 of it’s electoral votes and Obama only 3. In fact, if this plan to award electoral votes by congressional districts in these swing states only (an in none of the Red states) had been in effect in 2012, it would have been Mitt Romney taking the oath of office last Monday, despite losing the popular vote by 5 million votes! Only a Republican politician could come up with such a truly anti-Democracy idea.

First of all we need to defeat this anti-Democracy plan. It may be a bridge too far for even some Republicans, with influential Republicans in Virginia and Florida coming out against the plan. But watch out Michigan and and Pennsylvania. Secondly, we need to do away with this Electoral College system of electing our President. When our Constitution was written our Founding Fathers were leery of citizens directly electing the President. And with good reason – a significant portion of the population had no formal education and couldn’t even read or write. And with such a small population with many poor, votes could be bought. In this Age of Information, there is no reason our citizens shouldn’t directly elect our President. And as a Republicans have demonstrated, 538 Electoral votes can be much more easily manipulated than the votes of hundreds of millions of citizens. And thirdly, we need to put the task of redistricting into the hands of Independent Redistricting Commissions like we do here in Arizona. Politicians have proved over and over again that when they draw the maps they consider their own reelection first, election of fellow members of their political party second, and the needs of the voters dead last.

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It’s a new morning in America, an America whose finest hours lie ahead. We said ‘No Thanks’ to the millions and millions of Citizens United spending from corporations and the 1% who thought our democracy could be bought, who thought our vote was up for the highest bidder. We reelected the President who brought us back from the brink of another Great Depression. We reelected the President who understood that a thriving automobile industry was essential to the economic vitality of our Midwestern states. We reelected the President who understood the greatest economic and military power our planet has ever known cannot allow millions of its citizens go without adequate health care. We reelected the President who believes the millions who were brought here as children through no choice of their own and know no other life than that as Americans deserve to pursue their American DREAM. We reelected the President who understands that the way to strengthen marriage is to let everyone marry the person they love. We reelected the President who will take us Forward.

Mitch McConnell, Republican leader in the U.S. Senate famously said that the #1 priority of Republican Senators was to make the President a one term President. So they used the filibuster a record number of times to block any and all legislation that would strengthen our economic recovery. Well Mitch, the chickens came home to roost. Not only will President Obama be a two term President, in a year when Democrats had to defend 23 of 33 Senate seats up for election, we increased our majority in the Senate by two seats, increasing our majority from 53 to 55. And not only will be there more Democrats in the U.S. Senate, there will be better Democrats. Elizabeth Warren, a tireless fighter for the middle class, replaces Tea Party darling Scott Brown in the seat held by Teddy Kennedy for 47 years and will be the first woman to represent Massachusetts in the U.S. Senate. Richard Mourdock found out that it was God’s intent that he not serve in the U.S. Senate.  Todd Akin found out that women’s bodies have something to shut the whole thing down when it comes to him serving in the Senate. Tammy Baldwin will be the first openly gay person to serve in the U.S. Senate, and the amazing thing is that the issue never even came up in the campaign, it was rightly considered that who she loves is her own business. Mazie Hirono from Hawaii will be the first Asian American woman to serve in the U.S. Senate. Although not yet called, Heidi Heitkamp has apparently overcome a 20 point deficit in the Presidential race there to be elected North Dakota’s first woman Senator. Sadly, Rich Carmona came up short here in Arizona but ran a campaign to be proud of, while Jeff Flake should be ashamed of his.

John Boehner will be returning as Speaker of the House, with a smaller majority. So, Mr. Speaker, what’s your plan? Are you going to try to repeal the Affordable Care Act, for like the 20th time? A repeal that would be rejected by the Senate and ripped to shreds if it ever reached the President’s desk? Or will you reach out and pass common sense legislation that can pass with a majority of Republicans and Democrats? Thanks to your Do Nothing Congress that accomplished absolutely nothing in the last two year, there’s alot of important stuff that needs to be done. And there’s a lot the Democrats can accomplish in the next Congress. I suggest they start with new leadership – I think Nancy Pelosi was a terrific Speaker, but I also think it’s time for her to step down as Minority Leader and let fresh blood with fresh ideas take charge. And Democrats should start by standing strong: let ALL the Bush Tax Cuts expire. Republicans will never vote to raise taxes on the 1%, so let all the tax cuts expire. Then in January in the new Congress pass an Obama Tax Cut reinstating the lower tax rates for the poor and middle class – but $250k annual income is NOT middle class, reinstate the lower tax rates to a maximum of $100k annual income. And Democrats should tell Republicans: “Don’t like those sequestration defense spending cuts? Raise the debt limit without the circus theatrics you did last time, and then we’ll talk to you about those spending cuts.”. And Fix the Debt, address the debt and deficits with a responsible mix of increased revenue and decreased spending.

Here in Arizona it was mixed results and close races. CD1 has yet to be called with DemocratAnn Kirkpatrick leading Jonathon Paton by around 9500 votes. CD2 has yet to called, with Republican Martha McSally leading Ron Barber by around 1300 votes. In CD3, Raul Grijalva soundly defeated Gabriele Saucedo Mercer 57-39%. Our new CD9 has yet to be called, with Democrat Kyrsten Sinema leading Vernon Parker by around 2100 votes. As Mark Evans points out in his Caveat Lector blog, many thousands of “early” mail-in ballots have yet to be returned and processed and it will likely be the end of the week before many of those races are called. One race we don’t need to wait to be called is LD10, where David Bradley handily defeated Republican state Sen. Frank Antenori. The So Long Frank Celebration Party starts this morning. Statewide, Democrats increased State Senate seats by 4, with the Republican majority reduced from 2/3rds 21-9 majority to only 17-13. How’d that voting to remove the Independent Redistricting Commission Independent Chairwoman work out for you?

In politics there are winners and losers. Last night our country was a winner.

Have hope ye of little faith! The End is Near! No, I’m not talking about that Mayan calendar thingy – I think they just haven’t found the other half yet. Or maybe they just didn’t decipher the Mayonnaise language correctly.  I’m taking about Election 2012 – only 4 more days of being afraid to turn on your television! Only 4 more days of being deluged and insulted from political ads from shadowy outside groups we’ve never heard of telling us how bad and low down dirty rotten the other guy is! In a way we’re fortunate here in Arizona that we’re not considered a battleground state for the Presidential race and have largely been spared the barrage of ads states like Ohio and Florida have had to endure. I grew up in suburban Columbus Ohio and my sister and her family still live there. She tell me they gave up on live TV and ordered a DVR from the cable company so she can record their favorite TV shows and then fast forward through all the political ads, which she estimated at up to 20 per half hour during the local newscast. The latest 7-11 robbery or fender bender go unreported so they can squeeze in more political ads. Not only is Ohio ground zero for the Obama and Romney campaigns, but outside groups have poured over $30 million into TV ads trying to defeat incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown – who’s coasting to reelection anyway. But then Rich Carmona came out of nowhere and threatened Jeff Flake’s coronation as our next Jon Kyle and the outside money poured in and we were subjected to images of a shadowy figure banging on a door in  the middle of the night and the Grand Canyon turned into a large uranium open pit mine. And the Republican establishment never gives up their dream of winning the Congressional seat once held by Gabriele Giffords.

So take heart fellow southern Arizonans, the End is Near! After next Tuesday the political ads will all be gone, replaced with normal ads. Ads touting the magic of Viagra for those unexpected moments. Ads for new breakthrough drugs for the heartbreak of psoriasis. And my personal favorite – ads touting new miracle drugs for the torment of Restless Leg Syndrome! With all due empathy for those affected by that, of all the afflictions I could worry about contracting, Restless Leg Syndrome isn’t even on the radar – personally, my legs are always on their best behavior. And I hate to admit it, but I’ve even missed Jim Click hawking what a great deal he has on a new Ford. Oh wait, was that a new Chrysler? No wait, it was a new Kia . . . er, I meant new Hyundai! And where’s that appliance guy been? The one who always assures us that their low prices are our priority while he’s dressed up in some goofy outfit? I want Ace Hardware back assuring me I won’t need a sledge hammer to fix that drippy faucet or need a fireman when I try to switch out that buggy light socket.

Over $2 billion spent on the Presidential race, and billions more spent on Senate, Governor, and Congressional races. Thanks, Supreme Court, for deciding when our Founding Fathers wrote our Constitution what they really meant was that corporations are people and their money is actually free speech. But thanks, American voters for deciding our democracy isn’t up for sale and that your vote doesn’t go to the highest bidder. But only if you do actually take the time and effort to vote. If you haven’t mailed in that early mail-in ballot, today is the last day to do so. If you don’t, you can still drop it off at any polling place next Tuesday until 7PM. If you plan to vote in person next Tuesday be sure to check the location of you polling location – with the large majority of voters switching to mail-in voting, polling locations have been significantly reduced and your place to vote may have changed since the last election. You can check it right here at the AZ Secretary of State website. You’ll need either your voter ID # or Driver’s License #. Your vote is important, take it from this guy:

So take heart fellow southern Arizonans, the End is Near! Meanwhile, it’s going to be another great weekend here in southern Arizona – get out there and enjoy it!

Have a great weekend.

Two years ago, the summer of 2010, and the Tea Party was all the rage. “Taxed Enough Already!” they shouted, even though taxes hadn’t been raised – and some taxes even lowered as apart of the stimulus package. They railed against the “porkulus”, as the called the stimulus package that was intended to prevent the U,S. economy from falling into the depths of the Great Recession. They railed against the Wall Street Bailout, blaming Obama, Pelosi & Reid – even though it was proposed by GW Bush’s Secretary of Treasury, passed with support of Republicans in Congress, and signed into law by President Bush. They rallied against the rescue of the automobile industry, even though without millions of jobs would have lost and the Midwest rustbelt would have turned into a dustbowl. The Tea Party really wasn’t anything new – they were the same crusty, cranky conservatives that have always been around. Just a new name, some new faces, and some new targets for their anger. Here in southern Arizona Jesse Kelly won the CD8 GOP nomination fueled by Tea Party support and spouted off nonsense such as those on Social Security and Medicare were on the “public dole”, and that Government workers were “leeches”. We didn’t fall for that here in southern Arizoza (barely), but nationwide Republicans were swept into control of the U.S. House and many state legislatures and Governorships. So, have they saved us from the “excesses” of Obama and a Democratic Congress? Have they tackled our economic problems with innovative new initiatives freeing free enterprise from the “shackles” of government? Let’s take a look:

Swept into control of the House and gaining much more clout in the Senate, the GOP united behind a single goal. Was that goal to help Americans get back to work? No. Was their goal to work with Democrats to find areas on which they could agree and move the nation forward? Nope. Their common goal, as voiced by Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell was to ensure that President Obama was a one term president. McConnell said it was the “single most important thing we want to achieve”.  So, almost nothing has passed in the Senate as the GOP invoked filibuster after filibuster, requiring 60 votes to even bring an issue to vote, and almost impossible task in face if united Republican opposition. They don’t want to do a single thing to help the American economy if it helps President Obama even the slightest.  The House has passed little, and what they have passed they know cannot get passed in the Senate. The result? Stalemate. A Do Nothing Congress. What does the American public think of Congress? Public opinion of Congress has “rebounded” to a 10% favorability rating, after reaching an historic low of 9% favorability rating. Probably the Republican Congress’ “greatest” accomplishment was to take the U.S. Government to the brink of financial default over a senseless fight over raising the debt limit. The same Republican leadership that routinely raised the debt limit during the GW Bush Presidency now demanded that any increase in the debt limit be “offset” with spending cuts in the same amount. Republican leadership agreed that the spending cuts be applied equally to defense and domestic programs, unless a special Congressional Committee could come up with a plan on how to apply the cuts. Of course the committee couldn’t agree to anything, and the cuts begin to go into effect next year, part of what many economists call the “falling off financial cliff” and risk sliding the economy back to recession. And who do the Republicans now blame? It’s Obama’s fault, of course.

And how about those state legislatures and Governorships the GOP won? Have they made the economies better in their states, made lives better for their citizens? Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and the Republican controlled legislature thanked their corporate sponsors by passing tax cuts for business, which led to a budget shortfall. Then they used the phoney budget shortfall to attack state workers, cutting pensions and freezing wages. Walker survived a recall in recall weary Wisconsin by outspending his opponent 10 to 1 with corporate donations, but the voters had the wisdom to put Democrats back in control of the state senate to balance things out. Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder and the GOP controlled legislature came up with a way to circumvent democracy and the will of the voters. They passed a law which enables a panel selected by him to decide if a local government is in “financial stress” the panel selects an “emergency manager” to take over running that local government. The mayor, city councilmen, county supervisors elected by the voters no longer have any say in anything, what the “emergency manager” decides is what goes. Organizers secured almost twice the number if signatures required to put this measure on the ballot this fall, where it will likely be overturned. But the GOP controlled elections panel rejected the petitions, claiming they used the wrong font size. It took a Republican member of the state Supreme Court to agree with the Democratic court appointees that font size be damned, the petitions and signatures were valid and voters get to decide the issue. Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett the GOP controlled legislature managed to reduce the state budget 3% – by cutting spending more higher education by 50%. Where did the rest go? More tax cuts for business, of course. Sound familiar, Arizonans? But even more ominous, the GOP attempted to guarantee their grip on power by passing a  rigid voter ID law. An estimated 750,000 Pennsylvanian voters will be turned away from the polls this fall. And in a court challenge to the law the State of Pennsylvania couldn’t cite a single incident of in person voter fraud to justify the law. But for them the math is simple – those most likely not to have the required ID are those most likely to vote Democratic – the poor and the elderly living in cities and don’t drive a car. The hit list continues – Ohio Gov. John Kasich and the GOP legislature followed Scott Walker’s lead and went after unions and state workers. A successful petition drive led to the measure be out before the voters, who overwhelmingly rejected it. And the GOP also attempted to protect their grip on power by sharply curtailing early voting. Following the massive long lines in cities in the 2004 election caused by lack of polling places and voting machines, the Democratic legislature extended early voting days and hours, which lead to a tremendous increase in minority turnout in the 2008 elections. So once the GOP regained control they greatly reduced early voting, and are even attempting to impose early voting hours only 8-5 Mon.-Fri. in the urban counties (Democratic strongholds) while extending evening and weekend early voting in rural and suburban counties (Republican strongholds). Florida Gov. Rick Scott and a GOP state legislature? More of the same, spending cuts in education, tax cuts for business. Attempts to ensure their grip on power with Vote ID laws and reduced early voting.

How about right here in Arizona? The Republicans were swept into power with an absolute two-thirds majority in the state legislature along with Gov. Jan Brewer. Did they lead the charge for “smaller, more limited government”? No, they led the charge to expand government into the private lives and healthcare for women by passing a bill to prohibit abortions after the 18th week of pregnancy, a bill to protect doctors from being sued if they withhold health information about a pregnancy that could cause a woman to seek an abortion, and a bill to mandate that how school curriculum address the topic of unwanted pregnancies. They even passed a bill that lets the government define when the magic moment of life begins – for them, life begins at the end of a women’s last menstrual period. The GOP State School Superintendent demanded TUSD end the sacrilege of ethnic studies, while the GOP legislature voted to have the Bible taught in school. Other bills introduced by this awesome GOP 2/3rds super majority? A bill to limit what what teachers can say in the classroom. A bill to allow students and professors to carry guns on higher education campuses – I guess we’ll really make those professors watch what they say, but then at least they can shoot back. A bill that would help the state impound cars or suspend licenses of motorists who evade tolls on toll roads. What’s that you say? Arizona doesn’t have any toll roads? True, so far – but since those private prisons are working out so well maybe they’re thinking of privatizing ADOT and selling off the state highways. (See  Caveat Lector’s blog Private prisons not saving us money – so why do we still have them?)  Gov. Brewer and the GOP legislature had the financial genius to sell off the state capital and a number of state buildings and properties in 2009, to help balance the state budget. Earlier this year Gov. Brewer  proposed buying the state capital back thinking it was a bit embarrassing for the state to be celebrating the 100th year of statehood wile meeting in a state capital building it only rents. It would only cost $105 million she said, money which the state had.   The problem? The state only got $81 million when it sold it, so that’s the equivalent of paying $24 million in interest, a rate of  almost 30%. Maybe the state should have just borrowed the money at a payday loan center?

Two years ago, the summer of 2010, and the Tea Party was all the rage. The Tea Party didn’t really bring anyone new into the Republican Party – Republican turnout in 2010 was about the same as it was in 2008 when John McCain lost decisively and Democrats gained seats in the House and Senate. Democratic turnout was down, as those voters motivated primarily by the prospect of an Obama Presidency stayed at home. But the largest factor in the Republican wave of 2010 was that Independents and Moderates swung heavily to the GOP. Well folks, it’s your turn at the bat again. What do you think of the Republican “accomplishments” of the last two years? What do you think of their priorities of tax cuts for business and the wealthy at the expense of education, healthcare, and police & fire protection? What do you think of the Republicans insisting that their morals and religious beliefs be passed into law and imposed on everyone else? What do you think of the Republican attempts to protect their grip on power at the expense of democracy with voter suppression? Are you better off then you were two years ago?