Public Policy Polling (PPP) released their poll of the CD8 special election this morning:
Democrats are headed for a victory in tomorrow’s special election to replace Gabby Giffords in the House. Democrat Ron Barber leads with 53% to 41% for Republican Jesse Kelly, with Green Party candidate Charlie Manolakis polling at 4%. Barber is well liked by voters in the district, sporting a 54/38 favorability rating. Kelly, meanwhile, has very high negatives with only 37% of voters rating him positively while 59% have a negative opinion.
Ouch! Nearly 60% of CD8 voters have a negative opinion of Jesse Kelly. Quick, Jesse – trot Grandpa out again to tell us that you’re really a nice boy and didn’t mean any that stuff you said in 2010. Of course it’s not over until it’s over. Well, actually, maybe it is -
Barber appears to have the race pretty much already locked up. 57% of voters say they’ve already cast their ballots, and with that group Barber enjoys a 21 point advantage at 58-37. People planning to vote tomorrow are much more evenly split with 46% for Barber and 45% for Kelly. Barber’s winning 90% of the Democratic vote, while Kelly’s getting just 82% of Republicans. Barber also has a 51-34 advantage with independents. Barber’s advantage is pretty thorough along demographic lines- he leads with men, women, whites, Hispanics, and voters in every age group.
No, of course it’s not over. There is only one way to make your voice heard – go out tomorrow and exercise your right and civic duty and vote! Voters on election day often have a different opinion then those who vote by early mail-in ballots. Martha McSally won more votes on election day than Jesse Kelly. Many analyst credit Gabby’s victory over Jesse in 2010 to her lead in the mail-in ballots. This is no time for Democrats to rest easy, get out there and vote! Independents go out and vote, whichever way you see things. And yes, you Republicans go out tomorrow and vote as well. And remember that you have many much better qualified candidates to take on Ron Barber or Matt Heinz in November in the new CD2.
I have never been better represented in Congress than I was by Gabby Giffords, and it’s heartening to see so many of my fellow CD8 residents also hold her in such high esteem:
One final note- 67% of voters in Giffords’ district have a positive opinion of her to only 24% with a negative one. There aren’t many special House elections where the departing incumbent has a 67% favorability rating, and that fact makes this a very difficult one for the GOP to win.
UPDATE: There are reports of fliers being left on registered Democrat’s doors with the pretense of encouraging them to vote, but listing an incorrect polling location. If you are uncertain of your polling location you can call the Pima County Recorder’s office at 520-740-4330 or the Ron Barber campaign office at 520-207-0937. The Pima County Recorder also has a Precinct Locator Page where you key in your address and it tells you your polling location. A PDF listing all the polling locations for Santa Cruz County is here, and one for Cochise County is here.