My esteemed TucsonCitizen blogging colleague, Fort Buckley, is touting former Congressman Jim Kolbe’s advice on the Value of Voting GOP for Congress this Year.

Well, here’s the former Congressman just four years ago cheering Sen. McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as Vice President nominee as a “great selection”:

Question: What do you think about the selection of Sarah Palin?

Kolbe: I think it’s a great selection. It’s a changer, shakes things up in the right direction. I think it’s a great move by Senator McCain, shows he’s thinking outside the box.

Question: What do you have to say about her traditional conservative values?
Kolbe: Well, uh, you know, she hasn’t taken a position on any federal issues . . .

I stopped caring about what Jim Kolbe thinks about anything after he gave that brain dead partisan hack response.

Elect Richard Carmona to the U.S. Senate

Elect Ann Kirkpatrick to Congressional District 1

Reelect Ron Barber to Congressional District 2

Reelect Raul Grijalva to Congressional District 3

Elect Kyrsten Sinema to Congressional District 9

The right team for Arizona in Congress

“You can’t be strong around the world unless you’re strong at home“. That’s the message of Lawrence Korb, former Reagan Assistant Secretary of Defense. That’s the message of a growing number of bi-partisan and non-partisan economists. And that was the message last Thursday from over 80 Chief executives of major U.S. corporations, ranging from Aetna  to Weyerhaeuser. In the a statement the CEOs called for Congress and the President to take action to reduce the deficit with tax revenue increases as well as spending cuts. The statement specifically states that any fiscal plan “that can succeed both financially and politically has to limit the growth of health-care spending, make Social Security solvent and “include comprehensive and pro-growth tax reform, which broadens the base, lowers rates, raises revenues and reduces the deficit. ”

“There is no possible way to avoid raising taxes“, said Mark Bertolini, CEO of Aetna. “You can’t tax your way to fix this problem, and you can’t cut entitlements enough to fix this problem.”

“You can’t tax your way to fix this problem, and you can’t cut entitlements enough to fix this problem”. Spending cuts alone can’t fix our deficits and long term federal debt. And yes, we can’t just tax our way out. And we sure as heck can’t just tax cut our way to long term financial strength. But tell that to this guy:

That would be Mitt Romney, 4th from the left, raising his hand along with every other candidate in a Republican Presidential candidates debate when asked the question: Would you reject a deficit reduction plan with a ratio of 10 to 1 of spending cuts to new tax revenue? Not a single Republican Presidential candidate, including Mitt Romney, would accept even one single dollar of new tax revenue coupled with ten dollars of spending cuts to help reduce the deficit.  That’s not a Path to Prosperity, that’s a Recipe for Disaster.

“When you talk about a $15 trillion debt, I don’t see how you avoid addressing both sides – spending cuts and tax increases” – AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson.

Mr. Stephenson also said heads of capital-intensive companies, now making spending plans for next year, are particularly alarmed by the looming fiscal cliff, the spending cuts and tax increases set for Dec. 31 unless there is agreement on an alternative road to deficit reduction. “It is already having a direct and immediate effect on us“.

The letter signed by the CEOs specified that any deficit reduction plan should:

• Reform Medicare and Medicaid, improve efficiency in the overall health care system and limit future cost growth.

The Affordable Care Act was a significant first step to improving efficiency in our healthcare system and future cost growth by negotiating with healthcare providers and getting them to agree to lower reimbursement rates that will save Medicare over $700 billion over the next 10 years. No, not the Republican lie that it cuts over $700 billion from Medicare, saves Medicare that money, money that stays in the Medicare Trust Fund and extends its solvency.

• Strengthen Social Security, so that it is solvent and will be there for future beneficiaries.

Simple, minor tweaks to the Medicare tax can completely eliminate any projected shortfall. Currently the Social Security tax is capped at the first $110,100 of a worker’s wages.  Apply the Social Security tax to all wages, with no cap. This alone would eliminate 72% of the projected shortfall. The Social Security tax rate is currently12.4%, workers pay half and their employers pay the other half. Gradually increase the tax by 0.1% a year until it reaches 14.4 percent in 20 years – 2032. This alone would  eliminate 53%of the projected shortfall.

• Include comprehensive and pro-growth tax reform, which broadens the base, lowers rates, raises revenues and reduces the deficit.

Broaden the base. A lot of attention has been focused recently on the 53% who don’t earn enough to pay federal income taxes. Folks like retirees living off Social Security and retirement savings who often don’t reach the income level at which they’re liable for federal income taxes. The combat pay earned by soldiers serving in active war zones is not liable for federal income taxes.  Broadening the tax base to them is pocket change, and they earned what they have. But there is a lot of millionaires who also don’t pay income taxes. Eliminate offshore tax shelters and institute a minimum tax rate. And how about corporations? Exxon Mobil made $19 billion in profits in 2009. Exxon not only paid no federal income taxes, it actually received a $156 million rebate from the IRS. Bank of America received a $1.9 billion tax refund from the IRS last year, although it made $4.4 billion in profits and received a bailout from the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department of nearly $1 trillion.Citigroup last year made more than $4 billion in profits but paid no federal income taxes. It received a $2.5 trillion bailout from the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury. Broaden the tax base indeed.

The CEO statement was organized by the Fix the Debt organization, a bipartisan effort largely inspired by Republican Alan Simpson and Democrat Erskine Bowles, who chaired a 2010 deficit panel appointed by President Obama. The deficit reduction plan that was killed by Republican votes in Congress, including the vote of Congressman Paul Ryan.

In reaction to the CEOs’ letter, Obama campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt said, “There’s a strong and growing consensus that the only way to reduce the deficit while also growing the economy is through a balanced approach that includes both tough spending cuts and increased revenue”. The President and Democrats in Congress are ready to roll up their sleeves and get to work on a responsible path the deficit reduction through a mix of pro-growth tax policies, broadening the tax base, increased tax revenue, and targeted spending cuts. President Obama already nearly reached a $4.5 trillion deficit reduction plan with a responsible mix of spending cuts and increased tax revenue. But House Speaker John Boehner had to walk away from the deal when his knucklehead my-way-or-the-highway Tea Party base refused to accept any tax increases. We need responsible, moderate, and independent thinking people in Congress with whom we can work. Like Congressman Ron Barber who has already demonstrated his independent approach to problem solving. And Senator Rich Carmona, who has always been an independent thinker.

Vote for President Barack Obama, vote for Rich Carmona for U.S. Senate, vote for Ann Kirkpatrick in CD1, Ron Barber in CD2, Raul Grijalva in CD3, and Kyrsten Sinema in CD9, and let’s get to work.

Think Democrats aren’t serious about addressing and fixing the lack of tax revenue and excess spending structural problems causing our deficits and national debt? Remember the last time we not only had a balanced budget but actually had a budget surplus repaying our debt? It was under this guy:

And remember the guy who squandered that budget surplus and turned it into 8 years of deficits and $5 trillion added to our national debt? It was this guy:

That would be Mitt Romney campaigning with Indiana Republican Senate candidate Richard Mourdock in the photo above. Mitt Romney recently cut a TV ad endorsing Mourdock, calling him the “51st vote in the U.S. Senate”:

The 51st vote in the United States Senate? Scary thought – the guy who thinks Social Security and Medicare are “unconstitutional” could be the 51st vote in the Senate? The guy who said that bipartisanship is “driving us into bankruptcy”, and also said that his idea of bipartisanship is Democrats coming to the Republican point of view? The guy who said:

 I struggled with myself for a long time but I came to realize life is that gift from God, even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape. It is something that God intended to happen.

“Something that God intended to happen“. The old “It’s God’s Will!” argument. Was it “God’s will” that the rape happened in the first place? Do we stop prosecuting murderers because the murder must have been God’s will? Do we let Jerry Sandusky out of prison because his rapes of young boys must have been God’s will? No, we don’t – because it wasn’t God’s will, it was the heinous acts of men. And pregnancy isn’t God’s will, it’s a sperm cell and egg cell uniting.

It’s sad just how far the Republican party has sunk. Remember Todd “Legitimate rape” Akin? Think those two Republican Senate candidates are isolated cases? Nope, there’s plenty of Republican Congressmen and Senators who think exactly like Richard Mourdock and Todd Akin, but have the political savvy to keep their mouths shut. Congressman and Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan, Todd Akin and over 200 other Republican Congressmen co-sponsored a bill in Congress that re-defined the definition of rape. The Hyde Amendment has long banned any federal funding for abortion, except in cases of rape, incest or the danger to the life of the mother from a pregnancy. Paul Ryan, Todd Akin and over 200 others thought that too many women were getting a free pass on that rapey thing. They tried to insert the word “forcible” in front of “rape”, they tried to say the woman had to bear signs of being “forcibly raped” – that she clearly had been beaten into submission. Didn’t fight back hard enough? No rape exception for you. Victim of the so called “date rape” drug, slipped a mickey that puts your mind so far out in lah-lah land you have no idea or recollection of what you did? No rape exception for you. Victim of statutory rape, an adult forcing himself onto someone far too young to understand what they are doing? No rape exception for you. Republicans eventually had to take the term “forcible” out of the bill because of public outcry, but that’s what they tried to do.

When you consider the choice between President Obama and Mitt Romney, remember that Mitt Romney thinks Richard Mourdock would make a just fine & dandy 51st Senator.

When you consider the choice between Richard Carmona and Jeff Flake for the U.S. Senate, remember that Jeff Flake could be serving and voting with the likes of Richard Mourdock and Todd Akin, and remember what women think of Rich Carmona.

Those of you in Congressional District (CD) 1, when you consider the choice between Ann Kirkpatrick and Jonathon Paton, remember that Jonathon Paton could be voting for bills passed by a Republican House that could be approved by a Senate with the likes of Richard Mourdock and Todd Akin and signed into law by a President Romney should Republicans win control of the Senate and Mitt Romney win the election.

Those of you in CD 2, when you consider the choice between Ron Barber and Martha McSally, remember that Martha McSally could be voting for bills passed by a Republican House that could be approved by a Senate with the likes of Richard Mourdock and Todd Akin and signed into law by a President Romney should Republicans win control of the Senate and Mitt Romney win the election.

Those of you in CD 3, when you consider the choice between Raul Grijalva and Gabriele  Saucedo-Mercer , remember that Saucedo-Mercer could be voting for bills passed by a Republican House that could be approved by a Senate with the likes of Richard Mourdock and Todd Akin and signed into law by a President Romney should Republicans win control of the Senate and Mitt Romney win the election.

This election isn’t about Obama – it’s about your mama. It’s about your daughter, your sister, and it’s about you.

Notice the caption at the beginning of the ad? Dr. Cristina V. Beato, Acting Assistant Secretary for Health, 2003-2005. Not “Assistant Secretary for Health”, Acting Assistant Secretary for Health – “acting”, because while Bush nominated her for the office she was so controversial she could never win confirmation from the US Senate, even when Republicans controlled the Senate. Her nomination was derailed in 2004 after accusations surfaced that she had padded her résumé. She claimed all that was just a little “misunderstanding” and “clerical errors”. A Cuban-American, Dr. Beato was a very right wing Republican and highly partisan. In July 2007 Dr. Carmona testified before Congress that top Bush administration officials had interfered with his public health mission for political reasons. Out of loyalty he refused to name names, but speculation quickly focused on Dr. Cristina V. Beato. In a NY Times article shortly after Dr. Carmona’s testimony before Congress, Dr. Philip R. Lee, a former government health official said “Dr. Beato was more ideological and more right-wing, less objective and more political than Dr. Carmona“. Dr. Lee said Dr. Carmona frequently consulted him “when he was particularly frustrated” as surgeon general, adding: “Rich is a straight shooter, but he was naïve about the ways of Washington“. Frustrated – not “angry”. It was after Dr. Carmona’s testimony before Congress and attention focused on Dr. Beato as the one had interfered with the Surgeon General’s public health mission that she testified and made those claims years after she claimed they happened. She claims now that she “feared for her life and that of her children”, but never told anyone about that until years later? Her claims against Dr. Carmona were rejected by Congress because she couldn’t produce one shred of evidence. She couldn’t produce a single friend, family member, colleague – ANYONE who could testify that Beato had complained to them about Dr. Carmona’s behavior. It was retribution for Dr. Carmona’s testimony, plain and simple. She lied.

Here’s what another woman who worked with Dr. Carmona has to say about him:

Yes, Congressman Flak should be ashamed. Why is Jeff Flake stooping so low? Flake worked in Washington as a lobbyist for years before being elected to Congress. He’s now been in Congress for a dozen years, and is now asking voters for another six year job in Washington. I guess when you’re a career politician and that career is on the line you’ll do and say just about anything for another free ticket back to Washington.

Senator Richard Carmona – an Independent voice for all Arizonans.

The Amazing Story of Dr. Richard Carmona and my Late Grandfather

You may all be familiar with Richard Carmona – he is a Vietnam Veteran, former US Surgeon General who then became highly critical of the Bush Administration over its political interference with scientific findings, and is currently running for Senate in Arizona against Tea Party candidate Jeff Flake.  However, Richard Carmona has also had an amazing interaction with my family that I feel I must share with all of you.

Back in 2003 when Dr. Carmona was Surgeon General, he gave an interview with the New York Daily News, where he discussed the people who helped him achieve his career success.  In that interview, he singled out my late grandfather, Sal DiGrande.  I never met my grandfather, as he died of melanoma skin cancer in 1977, 3 years before I was born.  But before he died, he was a public school teacher in the Bronx at De Witt Clinton High School for decades.  By chance, my aunt saw the Daily News article in March of 2003 and read the interview, where Dr. Carmona credited my grandfather and another teacher Ed Blau with encouraging him to avoid dropping out of school.  She showed it to my mother and both of them were overcome with surprise and pride, and continued to watch his career from afar.

(Dr. Carmona mentions my grandfather near the bottom of the article)

Fast forward to last weekend.  I come from a family of strong Democrats who donate to several Democratic politicians, and this year with Dr. Carmona running for Senate, my mom sent him a donation online and attached a note saying how she is my grandfather Sal’s daughter and she saw Dr. Carmona mention him in the interview and she wished him luck in his Senate race.  Literally 5 minutes after the donation was made, Dr. Carmona personally called my mother to express his gratitude for the guidance given to him by my grandfather.  He told my mother that his office forwarded him my mother’s note and that he has been trying to track down my grandfather for years to thank him for teaching him the importance of education and for being a great teacher and that he owes a lot of his success to my grandfather’s support.  He didn’t know that he had died and said that if he were alive he would want to put his arms around him in thanks.  My mom was overwhelmed that a Senate candidate would take the time off the campaign trail to call her personally and, suffice to say, it affected her greatly.

(my grandfather in his classroom at Dewitt Clinton High School in the 70′s)

So the takeaways from this story are that teachers can be among the most important drivers of success for their students, like for a disadvantaged Puerto Rican child from the gritty 1970′s New York who rose to be the Surgeon General of the United States and hopefully a Senator shortly, and great teachers should always be appreciated.  And also that Rich Carmona is an amazing individual and we need to do everything we can to help him win his Senate seat 3 weeks from now.

(my grandparents in 1976)

Please show Dr. Camona some of the love he has shown my family.

That’s it. Short, but sweet: A man recalling the Grandfather he was never able to meet. A man who as Surgeon General of the United States recalling and saluting the teacher who had inspired him to never give up, to go for it and be all that he can be. A daughter remembering his tribute to her late father and sending him a modest campaign contribution and wishing him well.  A man running for the office of United States Senator taking the time out of his busy schedule to reach out to her, thanking her once again for her father teaching him the importance of education, and thanking him for being a great teacher. 

I had some pretty great teachers as well. Thank you to ALL our great teachers, a big thanks to all the Sal DiGrandes out there.  And thank you for remembering those who helped guide you through your amazing life’s journey, our next United States Senator, Dr. Richard Carmona.

A new poll conducted by Latino Decisions and America’s Voice released today reveals that 80% of Arizona Latinos plan to vote for President Obama, with just 14% saying they plan to vote for Mitt Romney; 6% are undecided. U.S. Senate Candidate Richard Carmona has nearly the same commanding lead, with 75% saying the will vote for him, with only 14% planing to vote for Jeff Flake; 13% are undecided. Especially interesting is that 69% said the were “very enthusiastic” about voting this year, and 60% said they were more enthusiastic about voting this year than they were in 2008. Why the surge in enthusiasm in Latino voter interest this year? Immigration reform and the DREAM Act were selected at the most important issue to facing Hispanic/Latino community by 55% of respondents, followed by the economy/jobs with 44% . Respondents could select up to two issues,  education/school reform (15%) and health care (10%) were the only other issues with double digit results. And it’s personal: 66% of Arizona Latinos know someone who is undocumented, and 55% know someone who may be eligible for the DREAM Act.

Can Arizona be the Nevada of 2012?

What’s especially interesting is that Latino Decisions asks the question: “Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 – the big Latino vote that you didn’t see coming”

In 2010, the average of 16 polls of likely voters in Nevada suggested Sharon Angle had a firm 3 point lead, and 538′s Nate Silver gave her an 83.4% chance of winning.  On election night, the results showed Harry Reid with a 5 point win — an 8 point difference from the poll averages.  Why the error? Almost every statewide poll in Nevada badly missed the Latino vote.  In the final analysis, Reid won close to 90% of the Latino vote, and Latino turnout was much higher than anticipated.

Matt Barreto of Latino Decisions suggested to Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight blog at the NY Times how the polls all missed the impact of the Latino vote in Nevada in 2010: All the major polling firms conduct their polls in English only, while Latino Decisions conducts their polls in both English and Spanish, with the respondent selecting the language in which they prefer the poll to be conducted. The major polling firms missed the Latino voters who prefer to speak Spanish. About 40 percent of Latino voters in California meet this description, with likely similar numbers in Nevada and Arizona. Mr. Silver compiled results from the eight states with the largest share of Latinos in their population: these are Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, New York and Texas. He found that in 10 of the 15 races, the polling average underestimated the Democrat’s margin by at least 2.5 points. He concluded that there was the beginnings of a pattern — and considering how rapidly the Latino population is growing, it’s one that pollsters are going to need to address. That was right after the November 2010 election. And less than a month away from the 2012 election, the major polling firms still haven’t addressed that, still conduct their polls in English only, and are likely under representing Latino voters in places like Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and elsewhere.

Do I think President Obama can carry Arizona in this election? Frankly, no – while I do believe the Latino vote is significantly under represented in polls, it’s still too steep a hill to climb for this year. Do I care? Frankly, no – this Presidential election will likely be all over before our votes are starting to be tallied, decided in places like Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire and Iowa. But after a combined 32 years of Arizona being represented in the U.S. Senate by the likes of John McCain and Jon Kyle, I care very much about Arizona finally electing a Senator who will strengthen and protect our middle class, care about the disadvantaged, and represent all Arizonans, instead of electing yet another career politician deep into the pockets of corporations and billionaires. I care very much about Arizona electing Richard Carmona our next U.S. Senator.

I also care very much about, and am confident that after this election we will have two new Congresswomen, Ann Kirkpatrick (CD1) and Kyrsten Sinema (CD9), joining Ron Barber, Raul Grijalva and Ed Pastor for a 5/4 Democratic majority in Arizona’s Congressional delegation.

Former President Bill Clinton will be the keynote speaker at a Get Out the Early Vote rally next Wednesday, Oct. 10,  at the ASU Sun Devil Performance lawn in Tempe. Gates open at 8:00PM and the program starts at 9:00PM. The event is free and open to the public, all you need to do is register online in advance at www.CarmonaForArizona.com/early-vote.

A Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll released just last Wednesday has Carmona leading Jeff Flake by 2 points, 45-43%, and it is Arizona’s Independent voters who are deciding this election – Independents prefer Carmona by 52-37% over career politician Jeff Flake. Rich Carmona’s independence also appeals to Arizona Republicans, with 14% preferring Carmona over Flake, while Flake wins only 7% of Democrats. And who better to explain to all Arizonans why Rich Carmona is clearly the best choice for our next U.S. Senator then Explainer-in-Chief Bill Clinton?

Carmona for Arizona!

Invasion of the Zombies on their way to the voting booth? Mitt Romney campaign political director Rich Beeson dismissed yesterday dismissed recent polls showing every single battleground state slipping away from Mitt Romney.

“The public polls are what they are. I feel confident about where we are. At the end of the day, Ohio is going to come down to the wire.”

Come down to the wire? The latest swing state polls from Quinnipiac University, CBS News and the New York Times show Obama holding leads of 10 points in Ohio, 9 points in Florida and 12 points in Pennsylvania.  In all three states, 51 percent of voters prefer Obama over Romney to preside over the national economy — a policy area over which the president has seized the upper-hand in the last month. About 60 percent of voters in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania say Obama understands and cares about their problems, while similarly large majorities say Romney does not.Obama’s consistent advantage among women voters has spanned virtually the entire campaign, but the gender gap has swollen considerably in the three states. The president holds commanding leads among women voters in Ohio (25 points), Florida (19 points) and Pennsylvania (21 points).

Mitt Romney campaign political director Rich Beeson  claimed the competitiveness of the race in states like Wisconsin and Iowa suggest a close national contest. “This is a wide open race” he claimed.

Meanwhile, back in the land of reality, last week’s NBC/Marist poll has the President leading Romney 50-42% in Iowa. The same poll has Obama leading Romney 50-45% in Wisconsin; PPP has it 52-45%. Does Mr. Beeson see dead people planning on coming back from the grave and into a voting booth? Or is their internal polling done by the same make believe NFL referees that gave Seattle a winning touchdown over Green Bay? Langer Research Associates poll for ABC News & Washington Post 9/19-23:

Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the way Barack Obama is running his presidential campaign?
Favorable: 53
Unfavorable: 45

…the way Mitt Romney is running his presidential campaign?
Favorable: 36
Unfavorable: 61

  …Romney’s recent comments about people who don’t pay income taxes?
Favorable: 33
Unfavorable: 54

Yes, election day is still 6 weeks away and anything can happen. Well, sorta. Except for that little thing called early voting. Early voting kicks off tomorrow in  Iowa, and with more swing states following close behind, including Ohio next Tuesday, George Mason University professor Michael McDonald, who researches early voting behavior, forecasts that 35% of the vote will be cast before Election Day. That’s nationwide; in many states it’s much higher. In the swing state of Colorado, 78% of all votes in 2008 were cast prior to election day; this year it;’s predicted to be 85%. Here in Arizona, where we start getting early mail-in ballots 2 weeks from tomorrow, it’s predicted over 65% of all ballots will be cast prior to election day.

So, desperate times call for desperate measures, and the Republicans are getting desperate. In the Massachusetts Senate race, GOP darling Scott Brown decided to make his closing argument challenging Democrat Elizabeth Warren’s claim of Native American ancestry because  . . . she looks white to him. At a campaign rally yesterday Warren supporters were taunted with Indian war whoops and tomahawk chops. Among those doing the taunting were Brown’s deputy Chief of Staff Greg Casey and Constituent Service Counsel Jack Richard. Those guys’ salaries are paid by taxpayers, and they belittle Native Americans? Scott Brown, you deserve to loose. And Missouri GOP Senate candidate Todd “Legitimate Rape” Akin? After he made those remarks Republican Party leaders demanded his resignation, calling his remarks “disgraceful”. Yesterday those same party leaders were saying “Todd Akin is a principled conservative who is committed to winning and fighting for freedom in the U.S. Senate”. Why the sudden about face? Yesterday was the absolute deadline for Akin to drop out of the race and have his name removed from the ballot, and their fading hopes of gaining control of the Senate is more important to them than principle. No rape is legitimate, and no, women who are rape victims have no magic defense from getting pregnant. Mr. Akin, you deserve to lose.  And here in Arizona, Democratic Senate candidate Richard Carmona released a new ad pointing out a series of votes Jeff Flake cast on veterans’ issues, including cuts to services and his opposition to a bonus for Iraq and Afghanistan War veterans. Jeff Flake, you deserve to lose.

The Mecklenburg County VA Republican Party’s Facebook page:

Nice. You guys all deserve to lose. Big time.

The new U.S. Senate that convenes in early January will likely be very narrowly divided, with independent thinking, moderate Senators in the driver’s seat. Above are two of them – Angus King of Maine and Richard Carmona of Arizona. And after the miserable failure of the current Do Nothing Congress, there will be no shortage of challenges facing the next Congress. Undoing that jobs destroying “Sequestration” budget cuts of over $100 Billion imposed on us by the current Congress, which many economists say that if they go into effect as scheduled next year will push us over the “fiscal cliff” and back into recession. The Bush tax cuts expire at the end of this year. The Democrats say keep the tax cuts for the middle class and let the tax rates for those earning over $250k per year revert back to what they were under President Clinton, when the economy was just fine; actually, really fine. The Republicans say it’s all or nothing, if they don’t get the tax cuts for the wealthy, then everyone suffers. What we need is independent, centrist Senators to break this gridlock and get each side to meet them in the middle. Like Senator Angus King and Senator Richard Carmona. Why do I think they can succeed? Let me explain what I think will happen on Nov. 6:

President Obama and Vice-President Biden will be reelected. Mitt Romney has run a miserable candidacy, and has nothing but the tired old Republican meme that more tax cuts for the wealthy will magically kick start the economy. Sound familiar? It should – that’s how George W Bush sold his tax cuts back in 2001 & 2003. It’s never worked before, it didn’t work then, and won’t work now.As the old saying goes, it ain’t over until the fat lady sings – but she’s about to start warming up. Respected pollster statistician Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com rates Obama’s reelection chances at 75%. Bettors at Intrade.com have Obama’s reelection at 66.5%, Romney chances at 33.3%.

It pains me to write this, but the gavel of the Speaker of the House will remain in John Boehner’s hands. At least he will have less of a majority and hopefully he’ll be more inclined to pass legislation that can pass with moderate Republican and Democratic support instead of only legislation he can sell to his teapublicans on the far right. Real Clear Politics (RCP) currently rates the House as 229 Republicans, 183 Democrats, and 23 tossups. My prediction is for 235 Republicans and 200 Democrats, a net gain of around 9 for the Democrats (there are currently3 vacancies, 2 Dem and 1 GOP ).

It’s the U.S. Senate where is gets interesting. Currently there are 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans, and 2 Independents, both of whom caucus with the Democrats. One of them is retiring, Joe Liberman. RCP currently rates the Senate races as 48 Democrats, 46 Republican, and 6 tossups. But for my scoring, I’m taking 2 seats they rate as “leans Republican” back and including them in tossups – Arizona and Nevada -  for a total of 8 tossups.

• 4 Republican Seats: AZ, IN, MA & NV. I think Democrat Elizabeth Warren will win in MA, Dems +1, 3 Tossups
• 4 Democratic Seats: CT, MT, ND & VA.  I think Democrats will hold CT & MT No change, 2 tossups

So, let’s say Republicans hold IN & NV but Carmona wins here in Arizona, and Republicans win in ND & VA. That would give us a Senate evenly divided 50-50. With VP Biden presiding over the Senate, his tie-breaking vote gives the majority to the Democrats. Except for one little detail: RCP is counting Independent Angus King as a Democrat, and he has steadfastly refused to say which side he would caucus with. And he appears to be truly independent. He was elected twice as Governor of Maine as an Independent, defeating Republican and Democrat opponents. He endorsed GW Bush in 2000, but John Kerry in 2004. He endorsed Barack Obama in 2008 and again this year – but with the caveat “considering the alternative”. He appears to relish the role of Kingmaker, no pun intended, and will no doubt make Harry Reid or Mitch McConnell earn his vote for Majority Leader, and on every other vote. And I have no doubt longtime Independent Richard Carmona will be right at his side. Perhaps not on who should be Majority Leader since he is running on the Democratic nomination, but certainly on the many vital issues the new Senate will face. And they could convince other centrists to join them in a Centrist Coalition in the center to get Republicans and Democrats to compromise and tackle the problems and issues facing us. On the Republican side, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who lost the GOP nomination in 2010 and won reelection with the votes of Democrats & Independents. Fellow Maine Senator Susan Collins. On the Democratic side, Jon Testor of Montana, who like many Montanans has an independent, centrist streak. New Senator Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, Mark Begich of Alaska, Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Just 6-8 independent, centrist thinking Senators could tip the balance for legislation they support. Meaningful compromise to tackle the deficit through careful, targeted spending reductions coupled with increased revenue. Letting the tax rates revert back to pre-2001 rates for those best positioned in this economy – those earning over a quarter million a year. Ending welfare – corporate welfare – by ending the billions in subsidies for big oil and other industries who don’t need taxpayers to subsidize them.

Jeff Flake has already been in Washington for a dozen years. He’s towed the line for Republicans without compromise, voting for both Bush tax cuts, voting for the Iraq war, voting to increase the debt limit under George W Bush with no pre-conditions, while joining with other Republicans to impose the stupid “sequestration” spending cuts for the debt limit to be increased under Obama. We have a clear choice in Arizona: send a partisan, Washington insider to the Senate to continue the partisan gridlock in Washington. Or, send a new, Independent voice to the Senate to work with fellow independent centrists to break the gridlock and tackle the vital issues that will face the next U.S. Senate.

If you watch Tucson TV stations in the early evening you’ve no doubt heard of Will Cardon – he’s been flooding the airwaves with ads denouncing Jeff Flake as a “career politician”, “world traveler” (at taxpayer expense), pro-amnesty, pro-cap and trade, and even lobbying the ultimate Republican insult: “liberal”.  He seems to be getting some bang for his buck – PPP (Public Policy Polling) reports when they first polled the race last February Will Cardon had little name recognition and Flake was trouncing him 56-7. But when they polled again late last month Cardon had shaved 27 points off Flake’s lead, narrowing it to 42-20. Yes, that’s still a pretty sizable lead, but the polling suggest momentum is on Cardon’s side. His name recognition has improved from 17% to 35%, and among those who know Cardon enough to have an opinion of him – either favorable or negative – he trails Flake only by 45-35.

And help may be on the way - both Politico and RollCall are reporting that Congressman Trent Franks appears set to endorse Cardon over Flake.

UPDATE: It appears I’m behind the time reading Politico & RollCall – Franks endorsed Cardin last night:

In front of more than a hundred Arizona voters in Sun City West Tuesday night, Congressman Trent Franks gave his heartfelt endorsement to Wil Cardon in Cardon’s bid for the U.S. Senate.

“Wil Cardon understands what Arizona needs in Washington,” says Franks. “He is committed to getting our economy back on track, upholding our country’s rule of law and looking out for Arizona families.

I also missed that Cardin has already been endorsed by recalled State Senator Russell Pearce:

“Wil, I think you’d do a great job there (in the Senate) — You’re my kind of guy,” Pearce said near the end of the broadcast on KFNX (1100 AM). “I hope we get a chance to expose you more to those folks who love this country, that want a champion, a warrior. A warrior! I’m tired of sending wimps to Washington. I want a warrior! I want our country back! I want a guy that doesn’t apologize — an unapologetic American. That’s what I want in Washington, D.C., and I think you’re the man that fits that.”

Well, it will be an interesting race to watch. We would love to see Will Cardon win the GOP nomination for US Senate – it’s high time Arizona have it’s very own Sharon Angle or Christine O’Donnell.