Updated: 11/19/12 5:30 p.m. (see below)

Prop. 118 Permanent State Land Fund was losing on Election Night but has flipped to the winning side & the gap is widening:

YES 946,568
NO 926,414

Prop. 409 Bonds for City Street Improvements (switched to winning side on Nov. 12, first time since Election Night. No votes to be counted 11/17/12 but counting of provisional ballots resumed on 11/18/12.) Final tally done 11/19/12 and Prop. 409 won by 953 votes.

YES 72,483
NO 71,530

The Congressional race in CD 2 has been very close and the lead has been switching back & forth, but Barber started leading on Nov. 10 and has declared victory, with McSally conceding on 11/17/12). Final tally done 11/19/12, Barber won by 2454 votes.

Ron Barber (D), incumbent CD 8, 147,338
Martha McSally (R) 144,884

I will continue to monitor the AZ Sec. of State website (click here) and the Pima County Elections Division website (click here) for updates on Prop. 118, Prop. 409 and CD 2.

Apparently in CD 1 Democratic former Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick has declared victory over Republican Jonathan Paton, who has conceded. Paton has now ran for Congress twice (in CD 8 and CD 2) and lost both races.

No change so far in who’s leading in other close races (and I will only update if there is any change of status):

LD 9 House (Republican Ethan Orr and Democrat Victoria Steele leading for 2 seats)

LD 10 House (Democrats Stefanie Mach & incumbent Bruce Wheeler leading for 2 seats)

PCC Governing Board District 5 (incumbent Marty Cortez leading for one seat)

TUSD Governing Board (Kristel Foster, incumbent Mark Stegeman, & Camy Juarez leading for 3 seats)

The other races appear to be decided, but stay tuned till the final & official count.

For my Election night posts, click here for the candidate tally, and here for the propositions tally, updated to 11/9/12 but for only the close races.

Barack Obama (D), and Joe Biden, incumbents
Gary Johnson (L), and James Gray
Mitt Romney (R), and Paul Ryan
Jill Stein (G), and Cheri Honkala

Here’s the list of who’s running in the State of Arizona, with emphasis on the Southern AZ seats:

U.S. Senate (open seat)
Richard Carmona (D)
Jeff Flake (R)
Marc Victor (L)

CD 1 (open seat)
Kim Allen (L)
Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
Jonathan Paton (R)

CD 2
Ron Barber (D), incumbent CD 8
Martha McSally (R)

CD 3
Raul Grijalva (D), incumbent CD 7
Blanca Guerra (L)
Gabriela Saucedo Mercer (R)

LD 2
State Senate
Linda Lopez (D), incumbent LD 29
Don Woolley (R), write-in

State House – 2 seats
Chris John Ackerley (R)
Andrea Dalessandro (D)
Rosanna Gabaldon (D)

LD 3
State Senate (unopposed)
Olivia Cajero Bedford, incumbent LD 27

State House – 2 seats (unopposed)
Sally Ann Gonzales (D), incumbent LD 27
Macario Saldate (D), incumbent LD 27

LD 9
State Senate
Steve Farley (D)
Tyler Mott (R)

State House – 2 seats
Ethan Orr (R)
Mohur Sarah Sidhwa (D)
Victoria Steele (D)

LD 10
State Senate
Frank Antenori (R), incumbent LD 30
David Bradley (D)

State House – 2 seats
Todd Clodfelter (R)
Stefanie Mach (D)
Ted Vogt (R), incumbent LD 30
Bruce Wheeler (D), incumbent LD 28

LD 11
State Senate
Jo Holt (D)
Al Melvin (R), incumbent LD 26

State House – 2 seats
Dave Joseph (D)
Adam Kwasman (R)
Steve Smith (R)

LD 14
State Senate
Pat Fleming (D)
Gail Griffin (R), incumbent LD 25

State House – 2 seats
David Gowan ( R), incumbent LD 30
Robert Leach (D)
David Stevens (R), incumbent LD 25
Mark Stonebracker (D)

Corporation Commission (3 seats)
Robert Burns (R)
Marcia Busching (D)
Christopher Gohl (L)
Sandra Kennedy (D), incumbent
Thomas Meadows (G)
Paul Newman (D), incumbent
Daniel Pout (G)
Susan Bitter Smith (R)
Bob Stump (R), incumbent

Pima County Assessor (unopposed)
Bill Staples (D), incumbent

Pima County Attorney
Claudia Ellquist (G)
Barbara LaWall (D), incumbent

Pima County Recorder
Bill Beard (R)
F. Ann Rodriguez (D), incumbent

Pima County Sheriff
Dave Croteau (G)
Clarence Dupnik (D), incumbent
Mark Napier (R)

Pima County Superintendent of Schools (unopposed)
Linda Arzoumanian (R), incumbent

Board of Supervisors
District 1 (open seat)
Ally Miller (R)
Nancy Young Wright (D)

District 2
Jim Kelley (R)
Ramon Valadez (D), incumbent

District 3
Tanner Bell (R)
Sharon Bronson (D), incumbent

District 4 (unopposed)
Ray Carroll (R),incumbent

District 5
Richard Elias (D), incumbent
Fernando Gonzales (R)

Pima County Treasurer
Beth Ford (R), incumbent
Elaine Richardson

TUSD Governing Board (nonpartisan race, 3 seats):

Menelik Bakari
Debe Campos-Fleenor
Don Cotton
Miguel Cuevas,incumbent
Ralph Ellinwood
Kristel Foster
John Hunnicutt
Camy Juarez
Robert Medler
Betts Putnam-Hidalgo
Mark Stegeman, incumbent
Alex Sugiyama, incumbent

Pima Community College governing board (non partisan,2 seats):

District 3:
Sylvia Lee
“Vicki” Marshall, incumbent

District 5:
Marty Cortez, incumbent
Richard Fridena
Francis Saitta

Vote wisely today, and on or before November 6th. Early ballots are being mailed today so they should arrive shortly in your mail box. You should return them by Friday November 2nd to be counted in time for the results on General Election night.

Official Results from Sec. of State website– for Pima County voting:

Democrats: 75,672
Greens: 589
Libertarian: 716
Republicans: 91,365
Total voted: 168,342

The question is which primary ballot did the Others/Independents/No Party Affiliation voters choose?

But look again at the registered voters in Pima County:

Democrats: 185,851
Greens: 1200
Libertarians: 3960
Republicans: 149,734
Others: 137,214
Total: 477,959

In Maricopa County there was a lower Democratic voter turn out in the primary compared to the Republicans (30% to 52%). This might have been due to the contested U.S. Senate race between Senator John McCain and his two challengers. Same thing in Pima County, Democratic turn out was 40%, Republican turn out was much higher at 61%.

Interesting stats: highest voter turnout in Yavapai County (41.35%), lowest in Mojave County (23.72%). And Maricopa County has more registered “Others” than Democrats, 571,968 to 541,244.

Take a look at the Secretary of State’s website to see the 15 individual County breakdowns on the number of votes cast, and for whom. Also for Pima County Elections returns (including breakdown of early ballots vs. election day polling, click here.)

The General Election should be fascinating, depending on how the Independents/Others vote, and whether the 2 major parties can get their voters to cast early ballots or go to the polls on November 2nd.

Arizona map of 15 counties

I used to think that a sitting politician always got re-elected– except if they had faced a scandal (personal or financial) prior to the election.

So I was surprised when one term President George H.W. Bush (father of President George W. Bush) and Vice President Dan Quayle were not re-elected and lost to then-Governor Bill Clinton and his running mate then-U.S. Senator Al Gore in 1992.

President Bush had no scandal prior to the General Election, but the American voters must have thought otherwise of his capabilities, and went for the new Democratic contender.

President George H.W. Bush

Remember Democrat incumbent Congressman Gary Condit of California who lost his re-election bid, due to the alleged scandal over missing person Chandra Levy?

On the local scene, incumbent Ward 6 Democratic Councilmember Nina Trasoff narrowly lost the November, 2009 election to political newcomer Republican Steve Kozachik. People told me it was due to the financial mess of Rio Nuevo downtown development.

So, coming up on August 24 (Arizona primary) we have several incumbents running, with opposition in the primary:

–Republican U.S. Senate John McCain (facing former Congressman J.D. Hayworth & Jim Deakin)
–Republican Governor Jan Brewer (facing Dr. Matt Jette)
–Republican Corporation Commissioner Gary Pierce (facing Brenda Burns and Barry Wong, but for 2 seats)

and in the Legislature in Southern Arizona:

–Republican LD 30 State Senator Ted Antenori (facing former House Rep. Marian McClure)

–Republican LD 26 House Rep. Vic Williams (facing Wade McLean and Terri Proud, but for 2 seats)

–Democrat LD 28 House Rep. Steve Farley (facing Ted Prezelski, Mohur Sidhwa, Tim Sultan, and former House Rep. Bruce Wheeler, but for 2 seats)

–Republicans LD 30 House Rep. David Gowan and Rep.Ted Vogt (facing Brian Abbott, Kurt Knurr, Doug Sposito and Parralee Schneider, for 2 seats). These candidates are meeting tonight at the Eastside Republicans meeting (click here).

Of course, it is conceivable (since voters are volatile and incumbency does not guarantee the seat) that the incumbents could lose, and brand new candidates may be selected in their stead. After all, political experience isn’t everything. But name recognition may be.

Stay tuned if any or all of these incumbents earn enough of the people’s votes to win their primaries, to face other contenders in the General Election on November 2nd.

Do you remember other incumbents who have lost their seats, and for what reason (s)?