Does incumbency matter in political campaigns? Do voters just elect the “same old same old” politician during each election cycle?

I used to think that a sitting politician always got re-elected– except if they had faced a scandal (personal or financial) prior to the election.

So I was surprised when one term President George H.W. Bush (father of President George W. Bush) and Vice President Dan Quayle were not re-elected and lost to then-Governor Bill Clinton and his running mate then-U.S. Senator Al Gore in 1992.

President Bush had no scandal prior to the General Election, but the American voters must have thought otherwise of his capabilities, and went for the new Democratic contender.

President George H.W. Bush

Remember Democrat incumbent Congressman Gary Condit of California who lost his re-election bid, due to the alleged scandal over missing person Chandra Levy?

On the local scene, incumbent Ward 6 Democratic Councilmember Nina Trasoff narrowly lost the November, 2009 election to political newcomer Republican Steve Kozachik. People told me it was due to the financial mess of Rio Nuevo downtown development.

So, coming up on August 24 (Arizona primary) we have several incumbents running, with opposition in the primary:

–Republican U.S. Senate John McCain (facing former Congressman J.D. Hayworth & Jim Deakin)
–Republican Governor Jan Brewer (facing Dr. Matt Jette)
–Republican Corporation Commissioner Gary Pierce (facing Brenda Burns and Barry Wong, but for 2 seats)

and in the Legislature in Southern Arizona:

–Republican LD 30 State Senator Ted Antenori (facing former House Rep. Marian McClure)

–Republican LD 26 House Rep. Vic Williams (facing Wade McLean and Terri Proud, but for 2 seats)

–Democrat LD 28 House Rep. Steve Farley (facing Ted Prezelski, Mohur Sidhwa, Tim Sultan, and former House Rep. Bruce Wheeler, but for 2 seats)

–Republicans LD 30 House Rep. David Gowan and Rep.Ted Vogt (facing Brian Abbott, Kurt Knurr, Doug Sposito and Parralee Schneider, for 2 seats). These candidates are meeting tonight at the Eastside Republicans meeting (click here).

Of course, it is conceivable (since voters are volatile and incumbency does not guarantee the seat) that the incumbents could lose, and brand new candidates may be selected in their stead. After all, political experience isn’t everything. But name recognition may be.

Stay tuned if any or all of these incumbents earn enough of the people’s votes to win their primaries, to face other contenders in the General Election on November 2nd.

Do you remember other incumbents who have lost their seats, and for what reason (s)?

If you live in Legislative District 30 and haven’t yet decided whom to vote for as your two representatives in the State House in the Republican primary on August 24, go to this meeting:

Eastside Republicans Meeting with Legislative District 30 House Candidates Brian Abbott, David Gowan, Kurt Knurr, Parralee Schneider, Doug Sposito, and Ted Vogt.

When: Wednesday, August 18, 2010, 6:00 PM

Where: Miller-Golf Links Branch Library – Community Room
9649 E. Golf Links Road (east of Harrison Rd., south side)

Besides the two incumbents Rep. Gowan and Rep. Vogt, you can consider the four other candidates. Rep. Gowan was elected to this seat in November, 2008, and Rep. Vogt was appointed to it in March, 2010, by the Pima County Board of Supervisors.

I blogged about them recently when four of them (Gowan, Knurr, Schneider, & Sposito) debated on July 20 for the Arizona Citizens Clean Elections program. Click here for my earlier blog (with photos) announcing that debate.

There is only one Democrat Andrea Dalessandro running in this LD30 house race, to face off in the General Election, with the 2 winners of the Republican primary. She ran before for this same seat in 2008.

Contact info for Eastside Republicans: Lori Oien, oienjmo@msn.com, 520-749-3472.

More info on LD 30, click here, from Pima County Republican Party website.

Another crowded field of candidates for representatives in the Arizona House is in LD 30 with 6 candidates (two incumbents) seeking the two Republican nominations in the August 24 primary.

The Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission (CCEC) debate between these candidates was held on July 20, and is online now (click here). The debate was held at the Pima Community College East campus, 8181 E. Irvington Road, and only 3 candidates Rep. David Gowan, Kurt Knurr, and Parralee Schneider initially participated. Doug Sposito arrived 30 minutes into the debate.

C marks candidate running a “clean” election campaign, T marks a traditional candidate:

Brian Abbott (C)
Rep. David Gowan (C), www.gowan4az.com
Kurt Knurr (C), www.knurr4az30.com
Parralee Schneider (C), www.parralee.com
Doug Sposito (T), www.az30house.com
Rep. Ted Vogt (T), www.vogt4arizona.com

I reported about this race back on March 16, 2010 when Ted Vogt was appointed to the vacant LD 30 house seat by the Pima County Board of Supervisors (click here).
Rep. David Gowan has been serving in the state house for 2 years, and is seeking re-election to this seat.

See map of Legislative District 30 (from Pima County Republican Party website).

Kurt Knurr

Parralee Schneider

Rep. David Gowan

Doug Sposito

Photo of Brian Abbott not available.

Rep. Ted Vogt