“Most polls show Attorney General Terry Goddard lagging behind Gov. Jan Brewer by double digits in the governor’s race. Can Goddard close the gap by Nov. 2?” (dated 9/28/10, 330 votes so far). Vote now or see online results by checking their website & scrolling down on the left of the homepage, http://azcapitoltimes.com/.

Past polls from their archives:

“Which statewide Democratic candidate has the best shot at winning on Nov. 2?”
–Felecia Rotellini, attorney general’s race (44%, 148 Votes of 339 votes)

“Who will be the next Senate president?”
–Sen. Steve Pierce (42%, 171 Votes of 408 votes)
–Sen. Russell Pearce (31%, 127 Votes)

“Who is the most vulnerable Democratic member of AZ’s congressional delegation?”
–Harry Mitchell (34%, 121 Votes of 361 votes)
–Ann Kirkpatrick (29%, 104 Votes)

Which primary race was the biggest surprise?
— CD3 (R) – Quayle beats field of 10 (40%, 188 Votes of 473 votes)

“Which Republican will win the primary race for state treasurer?”
– Doug Ducey (42%, 171 Votes of 403 votes)

Some of these polls were accurate (State Treasurer one, which was surprising as all 3 opponents had state legislative experience and Ducey is a political newcomer). And of course the Ben Qualye win was another surprise by a political newcomer, though son of former U.S. Vice President Dan Qualye.

Wait for November 2nd for some of the results for these other polls, or thereafter for the Arizona State Senate President vote. I’m not much of a believer in political polls, but they do indicate some trends. Readers, do you agree with these poll results?

For other interesting political polls from their archives click here.

I used to think that a sitting politician always got re-elected– except if they had faced a scandal (personal or financial) prior to the election.

So I was surprised when one term President George H.W. Bush (father of President George W. Bush) and Vice President Dan Quayle were not re-elected and lost to then-Governor Bill Clinton and his running mate then-U.S. Senator Al Gore in 1992.

President Bush had no scandal prior to the General Election, but the American voters must have thought otherwise of his capabilities, and went for the new Democratic contender.

President George H.W. Bush

Remember Democrat incumbent Congressman Gary Condit of California who lost his re-election bid, due to the alleged scandal over missing person Chandra Levy?

On the local scene, incumbent Ward 6 Democratic Councilmember Nina Trasoff narrowly lost the November, 2009 election to political newcomer Republican Steve Kozachik. People told me it was due to the financial mess of Rio Nuevo downtown development.

So, coming up on August 24 (Arizona primary) we have several incumbents running, with opposition in the primary:

–Republican U.S. Senate John McCain (facing former Congressman J.D. Hayworth & Jim Deakin)
–Republican Governor Jan Brewer (facing Dr. Matt Jette)
–Republican Corporation Commissioner Gary Pierce (facing Brenda Burns and Barry Wong, but for 2 seats)

and in the Legislature in Southern Arizona:

–Republican LD 30 State Senator Ted Antenori (facing former House Rep. Marian McClure)

–Republican LD 26 House Rep. Vic Williams (facing Wade McLean and Terri Proud, but for 2 seats)

–Democrat LD 28 House Rep. Steve Farley (facing Ted Prezelski, Mohur Sidhwa, Tim Sultan, and former House Rep. Bruce Wheeler, but for 2 seats)

–Republicans LD 30 House Rep. David Gowan and Rep.Ted Vogt (facing Brian Abbott, Kurt Knurr, Doug Sposito and Parralee Schneider, for 2 seats). These candidates are meeting tonight at the Eastside Republicans meeting (click here).

Of course, it is conceivable (since voters are volatile and incumbency does not guarantee the seat) that the incumbents could lose, and brand new candidates may be selected in their stead. After all, political experience isn’t everything. But name recognition may be.

Stay tuned if any or all of these incumbents earn enough of the people’s votes to win their primaries, to face other contenders in the General Election on November 2nd.

Do you remember other incumbents who have lost their seats, and for what reason (s)?