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Going green may cause you to see red

by on Jan. 21, 2012, under Politics

As you pat yourself on the back for “going green” by installing solar panels purchased from a local company, you may have unknowingly boosted the Chinese economy as well. Most people are unaware that a solar trade war is being waged right inside our country due, in part, to an avalanche of of inexpensive imported panels from China and the ongoing push by environmental groups to abandon virtually everything associated with oil and gas energy.

But there’s a slight glitch; the U.S. solar industry is equally split over these imports with U.S. manufacturers of the panels insisting their sales are being diminished and are demanding a special tariff placed on the imports. However, another segment of the U.S. solar energy industry supports the import of less expensive panels are actually helping to fuel solar sales across the country.

U.S. based solar panel manufacturers are now offering a new patriotic sales pitch something on the order of “True green is also red, white and blue.” While this sounds good in theory, it isn’t resonating with consumers who must also consider their bottom line, and that means if the products perform comparably well, then the nod goes to the lowest cost option, and the U.S. manufactured panel are much higher priced than the ones coming from China. When boiled down to the ultimate reason for the price differentiation, its once again a union-driven phenomenon of higher wages being passed on to the consumer.

U.S. solar panel manufacturers also insist that the Chinese are breaking trade laws using a practice called “dumping” whereby they subsidize a customer/company that ultimately opens the door for selling a huge quantity at a discounted price rather than trickling in the products at a higher price. So far the U.S. Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission hasn’t been able to determine any wrong doing on the part of the Chinese, they’re simply following U.S. laws to the letter.

Interestingly, an owner of one of the largest solar panel manufacturing companies in the U.S. openly admits that adding tariffs to Chinese solar panel imports would result in higher prices for American consumers, but the equalization of pricing makes the industry a much more fair place overall. It’s unlikely that most U.S. consumers look much beyond the bottom line price when shopping for comparable products whether they’re solar panels or any other mass produced commodity.

Another significant factor is that the majority of solar-related businesses in the U.S. are solely involved in installation of the panel, not the actual retail sale of them. So adding a tariff to Chinese solar panel would indirectly undermine the profitability, and potentially the sustainability, of these businesses and could ultimately put them out of business when consumers reach a financial tipping point of postponing the addition of solar panels. This aspect play directly into the shortage of jobs in the country, and shuttering solar panel installation businesses that are finally gaining some traction seems counter-productive at this time when millions of Americans remain out of work. In addition, such a move to hike tariffs could spark a trade war with China, and that’s surely a no-win issue, especially for the U.S.

The bottom line, as with most buying decisions, is the price of the product, not the country of origin. If a solar panel from the U.S. and China perform equally well, then a consumer is most likely to buy the one that has the lowest cost. We do it every time we go grocery shopping or searching for something online. Like it or not, it’s all about the money, and when we can buy a comparable product for less that means we have more money left over for buying something else. And when that “something else” is sold by an American company it tracks back to actual jobs versus unemployment.

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  • Victor Victor

    Our country (USA) needs to lower our minimum wage. This will help make us competitive with the rest of the world, bring back jobs from overseas, and in general get us in sync with reality.

    • tunkashila

      Apparently, you’re missing the reality that our minimum wage doesn’t even begin to cover the real-world costs of living in this country.  Your argument is similar to those who argue that we need the Patriot Act or the NDAA to protect us from terrorism-you do not fight tyranny by becoming tyrannical.  This is akin to holding orgies to support virginity.

      • James Sandefer

        Unfortunately, not everyone is qualified (skills, education, etc.) top hold a job that pays higher than minimum wage. And the fact is some jobs are simply worth minimum wage, not a significantly higher amount.
        Arbitrarily paying people who have minimal skills, training, education, etc. is akin to merely providing another handout, an unearned freebie paid for by the taxpayers.
        Some employers are unscrupulous, but the majority seem to have a genuinely sincere stake in their business and their employees, and their success is earned through a team effort.
        What is often happening recently, especially with the occupiers, is the notion that somehow there’s a “right” to nearly everything for free. That’s the most shallow, lame, lazy mindset I’ve heard in ages. Life doesn’t
        come with any guarantees, warranties, or any form of promise of lifelong prosperity from cradle to grave. We don’t pick and choose our parents and they don’t know what kind of kid or kids they’re going to have, if
        any. Life is a gamble from the first breath to the last, and a lot of it is a matter of sheer luck, and that can be bad and good depending upon the situation and timing…

    • James Sandefer

      I’ve struggled to come to a firm position regarding the minimum wage for years and have heard both sides of the argument, from workers and employers.
      Unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be a win-win at the minimum wage level, it’s more on the order of a marginal win for people who don’t have the skills, education, etc. to qualify for higher paying positions.
      Conversely, I’m not on board with employers who take advantage of the minimum wage to reap obscene profits on the backs of those who won’t likely ever become qualified to earn a significantly higher wage.
      And the government’s hands aren’t clean in this issue either given the enormous number of civil service workers added to the rolls over the past couple of years. As we’ve heard and read about and possibly experienced
      first hand, there’s massive waste at the Washington level of government. This isn’t the fault of those who applied for, were deemed qualified, and hired into the these various positions. The fault is with the bureaucrats of
      both sides of the aisle who’ve intentionally or obliviously ignored the fact that so many government agencies perform overlapping functions. Yet the agencies charged with ensuring our safety still have a poor, if any, system
      in place for sharing information. In Washington, information is power, and power equates to money, and the bottom line of most everything these days is money…

  • James

    Sorry, but I have trouble believing wages play a significant part in the construction of solar panels. At least as far as manufacturing goes. You’re likely paying 10x+ as much as proportion of the cost of the solar panel to installers as goes to those on the factory floor. From what I’ve seen the business is highly automated and material costs and energy inputs by far amount to the greatest costs. The low price of Chinese modules makes sense because it comes only a couple years after the Chinese government labeled solar a strategic industry and threw tens of billions at subsidizing the cost of inputs. Solar companies in China can survive at a huge loss as long as their seen as furthering Chinese progress in the industry. While labor cost is a major factor in some industries like fashion, in this case CASM hit the nail on the head. This is a capital (not labor) intensive industry, none of this would be possible without substantial subsidization from the Chinese government.

    • James Sandefer

      They do have a knack for undercutting the price of products made in most other countries.
      Given the virtually limitless manpower supply in China it isn’t likely that we will ever be able to match their production cost…

      • James

        But my argument here is that solar panel production is largely driven by an army of robots not humans. Sure human input may account for a minor part of the product but it’s insignificant compared with what comes from automation, material costs, and energy. When accounting for the additional cost of shipping it should cost more to produce solar panels in China than in America.

        If driven by market forces alone producing solar panels in America would make much more sense. But in this case the Chinese government is willing to lose money to gain dominant market share, because they know if they gain a large enough market share it will be nearly impossible for others to challenge them due to economies of scale. It’s happened in a number of other capital intensive industries, it doesn’t have to happen solar, but barring trade action against these merchantilistic practices this will end in a Chinese solar monopoly and all the inefficiencies that come with it; that would have huge future ramifications for the future of the industry and the economy.

        Monopolies stifle innovation and at the moment most of the worlds solar innovation is coming from companies located outside of China.
          

        • James Sandefer

          Sounds good in theory, but the reality of it is China can and will likely always pay its workers lower wages than the U.S.
          With the labor unions firmly entrenched in the wonderful world of Washington politics, our workers will always receive
          significantly higher wages than most workers in other countries. Adding higher tariffs to Chinese produced solar panels
          will simply trickle down to the consumer/taxpayers via higher prices. Because their production of goods has become so
          diverse they could stop or cut back production and quickly re-tool for production of a different product that’s in demand at
          a comparable profit margin. This is a win-win for the them and a loss of us, as usual.
          While it sounds so nice to say “Made in the USA” the fact is that isn’t happening much these days. But consider the fallback
          position of the Chinese; they too can raise tariffs of goods that we do produce such as computer hardware (i.e. Intel processors)
          and that would cause an immediate meltdown of that industry. BTW, while I like and use an Intel processor in my computer, that’s
          about as close to a monopoly as you’re going to find in the country. But most of us don’t have a gripe with that because we like, need
          and use their products.
          We aren’t holding many good cards in our hand at the moment when it comes to producing and exporting goods that are highly sought
          around the world. It wouldn’t be a particularly long list if you were to sit down and list them on paper. We’ve essentially become a nation
          of reactive consumers rather than pro-active producers…

          • James

            Fair enough, though Intel has production facilities across the world these days, it is one of the few tech giants that hasn’t outsourced production to Chinese producers, nor has AMD for that matter. However, only the more advanced processors are built in America. Only ARM processors have been completely outsourced.

            Intel has been able to establish a tech empire entirely on its intellectual property rather than cheap production costs. If Intel’s products were easy to replicate they would have been challenged by cheap Chinese production years ago. If China were to raise tariffs on Intel products they’d be shooting themselves in the foot because computer manufacturers that assemble computers/laptops would simply move production to Vietnam resulting in tens of thousands of job lost in China.

            Arguably American solar producers if given a fair competitive environment too could follow Intel’s lead and dominate the competition on superior intellectual property.  With production becoming more and more automated companies that can build a strong intellectual property base will be the leaders of tomorrow.

            We’re holding more cards than we imagine, China has a large trade surplus (a lot more to lose). Furthermore, the majority of America’s exports to China are not value-added products but raw material/low level inputs for Chinese production and food products; China placing tariffs on such exports on such products would increase core consumer inflation/production costs in China with little effect on the balance of trade. Our biggest problem is that we don’t realize how much we actually could do to make this trade relationship more beneficial to our own economy.
             

            • James Sandefer

              We also might want to keep in mind that we aren’t the only trade partner with China, the South American and European countries are ramping up their relationship with them along with gross imports.
              With a $15+ trillion dollar deficit hanging over our heads we aren’t exactly holding any trump cards. Even by cutting back or totally halting export of raw materials, the Chinese could, rather easily, make
              a quick arrangement with a number of other countries to pick up the slack and keep them in the production business. But the fallout from that action could be financially devastating to us if they opted to
              jack up the price of the final product.
              Intel is somewhat of a rarity and their largest U.S. facility is in Rio Rancho, NM. I know some people who work there are cyber-intelligence scientists and keep me posted, within the understandable bounds
              of their security clearances–we don’t discuss issues in that realm and I wouldn’t ask them to do it.
              Historically, our arrogance has gotten us into economic trouble, wars, etc. because we tend to 1) overlook history, 2) assume we know more about just about everything than everyone else, or 3) believe that
              if we do something for another country they will automatically befriend us when the time arises. In reality, we don’t have many true allies, and even some of those keep one foot on both sides of the line “just
              in case.”

              • James

                Fair point, though the EU, Brazil/Argentina, and India (some of the key players) all have their own trade quarrels with China now. All of those regions already have more tariffs in place against China than America currently has in place. If China were to turn to other nations it would not necessarily be cheap to scale up production, as they found out when they banned soy exports from Argentina.
                 
                This article discusses the problems Brazil has been experiencing of late: 
                http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/07/brazil-china-trade-idUSN1E78522420110907

                In my opinion, allowing advanced technical industries to opportunity to thrive in America would be more valuable to the economy and future of the country than padded margins for large raw material producers. The most likely outcome of a Chinese ban would be American raw materials either flowing more to domestic producers or third countries at a slightly lower price rather than outright collapse.

                The risk for China would be far greater as, given the types of products exported to America, any escalation in trade action would result in millions, even tens of millions of job losses. Most likely they would suck it up as they know their trade practices have resulted in major WTO violations, and perhaps make a token gesture of dissatisfaction like they did with the tariff on American car imports (which are almost non-existent).

                That said, I agree that America has been too overconfident and arrogant in the past with regards to geopolitical issues. But when it comes to trade issues we’ve been far to passive toward defending our own long term interests and have overlooked damaging trade relationships to gain pseudo-alliances. 

  • http://theenergygame.blogspot.com David Bergeron

    Hi James, you might enjoy this solar article from a fellow Southern Arizonan. 

    http://www.masterresource.org/2011/12/solar-subsidy-misdirection/  

    David B. 

    • James Sandefer

      Thank you–it was an interesting, informative overview.

  • James

    Here’s another good article that effectively describes what I’ve been saying in a more concise manner (not directly related to solar products but the same principles apply):
      http://prestowitz.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/01/23/apple_makes_good_products_but_flawed_arguments

    • James Sandefer

      Another interesting and informative article–thanks.
      It continues to reinforce the premise that the cost of producing goods offshore remains lower than doing it here.
      Another factor that won’t play well with getting production operations thriving in the U.S. is the looming mandate for requiring employers to provide insurance coverage for workers. The obvious offshoot of this action would simply be passing along the added cost to consumers, so once again we’d lose. The unions have got to get onboard with the hard, cold fact that other countries are producing goods at a lower price due in significant part to paying lower wages. Undoubtedly, this situation will likely not hold indefinitely as these nations evolve and workers unit to demand higher wages thereby cutting into the wholesale price of the products they manufacture. But for the time being, it’s going to be business as usual, and we can either make some necessary wage-related adjustments that would lure production back onshore, or go about things as usual and continue on the downward economic slope…


 

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