We are on the verge of Congress and the President changing our existing health care system with one that gives the government a new, larger and and somewhat yet to be determined role in the overall healthcare plans of individuals. 

We are already sure there will be confusion and anxiety from the change.  Change always cause this, but what level of discomfort will we see?

Some people who could not get healthcare before will now be able to obtain it although it may well be that many of these same folks will not be able to afford it.  Some folks who would have lost their coverage for some current reason may be able to keep their coverage with these changes.  This is seen as a good thing and I agree that insurance companies may deserve more regulation on these points.

However, I also predict that there will continue to be many people with no coverage and no willingness to pay for it, even if it is mandatory.  These people do not squeeze well when commanded to cough up fees….  Still , they wil cough and get sick and we all know they will get services paid for by other people who do pay up.

Basic healthcare costs may or may not fall.  The safe bet is that people who have decent and costly coverage now which works for them will choose to keep it and see absolutely no savings, and then continued increases in monthly costs as time goes by.  ALL taxpayers will pay more and more and more, until there is just not much money left to pay and the government will resort to the printing press.  If sickness doesn’t get you, good old inflation will.  It is inevitable.

Right now, the “best healthcare in the world” is rationed by limited coverage policies and high costs for exotic services.  With the Federal plan, we will see rationing of services based on age, current health, bureaucratic involvement and then have to still deal with coverage issues, and costs of services.  Anyone who believes costs will miraculously go away because the government has come to our rescue is already on or in need of drugs. 

I personally hope to keep my excellent and high cost insurance until I get to Medicare in a few years and then to keep a good supplement policy in force.  I do want all Americans to get fair treatment and not to be discriminated against.  Maybe the new plan will make some inequities leave the system, but it will never, ever be fair.  The world is not a fair place and we can’t expect it from a government run health plan.  It may become  an acceptable or even a good plan in time, but rushing it to the President’s signature before the consequences are reasonably examined sounds like trouble to me.

Do nothing and more and more families and individuals will no longer be able to afford insurance policies for health coverage.  They will drop into the ever growing basket of the uninsured.  This is a terrible way to ration healthcare, too.  We need thorough and complete analysis of this problem BEFORE we get new laws and unforeseen problems.  Even if it takes another 6 months or a year, let the process be complete, fair and less politicized.  In the long run, we’ll all be better off.

In the end, not everyone will have equal health coverage.  There will be some who have premium plans and influential friends.  There will be those who can afford to travel abroad to get services which are in short supply here.  Our system will become more like other systems around the world where there may be more equity, but not necessarily a utopian one.  It may become a truly better overall system than we currently live with, but there are many ways for these grand plans to fail.  Patience and caution at the expense of political promises may be a good thing.