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Tucson needs a REPUBLICAN in the House of Representatives—The Series Continues

by on May. 22, 2012, under Uncategorized

The House of Representatives does what the majority party wants it to do. If you want to have clout in the House, you want a Representative who’s from the majority party. That party is, and will be, the GOP. So, if Tucson wants a voice in the House that the leadership will listen to, we need a Republican representative.

(Oh…we’re in luck! There’s a House election coming up…)

By comparison, in the Senate, an individual Senator can sway the course and content of legislation when the vote is close. Even when the vote isn’t only NOT close, it’s against him, one Senator (or a few) can slow down the whole legislative process. (If nothing else, they can filibuster, something it takes sixty votes to stop.) In so doing, they can force the Senate leadership to listen to, and heed, them.

The House of Representatives isn’t the Senate. The majority party runs it, and the Speaker of the House and the Majority Leader and Whip run the majority party. Maverick Congressmen/women—or members of the minority party—get marginalized, unless the Speaker and Majority Leader want them to be players.

What are the chances that the GOP will lose the House in November? Well, let’s see what the experts say.

  • According to the Cook Political Report, the 2010 redistricting fortified 10 to 15 Congressional seats for the GOP.
  • “Republicans are in strong position to keep control of the House” says Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball.  (Crystal Ball reached that assessment with a predictive model that “accurately predicted the Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives and Senate in 2006 and the Republican takeover of the House in 2010.”)
  • Intrade gives the GOP a 75% chance of keeping control.
  • Election Projection predicts that the GOP will pick up 6 seats in November, giving it 248 members.

When most Americans look at Arizona, what do they see? (OK, besides the Grand Canyon). They see Phoenix. C’mon, admit it—we know it’s true. (Non-Chicagoans and upstate New Yorkers know what I’m talking about here).

Phoenix has several GOP House members, plus both US Senators. Tucson has Raul Grijalva, who’s chairman of the House Progressive Caucus and world-famous for calling for a boycott of his own state over SB1070.

When Speaker of the House John Boehner and the House GOP leadership look south of Phoenix, don’t we want them to see something besides “Baja Arizona?” I sure do.

Elect Jesse Kelly in CD 8. Keep Tucson from being marginalized in Congress.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, May 22nd, 2012 at 9:56 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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  • http://twitter.com/LavenderPitt Rachel Goldin

    Electing Jesse Kelley would be electing a lying carpetbagger and would be a bad move entirely.

    I find his commercials exceptionally insulting- he says the “ponzi scheme” comments re taken out of context, but who am I going to believe? The opportunist Texan or my lying memory? I remeber when those stories came out in the first place.

    • fortbuckley

      No, Rachel, I suspect you’ll believe what Media Matters tells you to believe.  Plus, Social Security IS a Ponzi scheme, that will fail in the future (not now) as the baby boom passes out of the work force and into retirement.

      • brenro

         So, we’re going to kill off social security, do away with the minimum wage, have a national sales tax. If I decline to wear a brown shirt will I be ostracized?

        • fortbuckley

          No, brenro, you are free to wear whatever shirt you want.  Pick a color that matches your tinfoil hat.

  • Carolyn_Classen

    Listen to the live CD8 debate today (in person) or on the radio: http://tucsoncitizen.com/community/2012/05/22/live-cd-8-debate-on-may-23/

  • brenro

    When most Americans look at Arizona, a giggle-fest ensues thanks to the embarrassing legislation passed by our GOP state government. What are we doing about one of the most depressed real estate markets in the country and the acres of vacant office space? We name a state gun, we investigate the birthplace of the President, we push to put guns on college campuses, we pass legislation to antagonize every citizen of Latin ancestry under the guise of keeping out illegals. We rank 48th in education. That’s just where these megalomaniacs in Phoenix like it. A high school graduate tea party flunkie to the House of  Representatives? The giggling will continue unabated.

    • fortbuckley

      Would you prefer a candidate that’s an Ivy League professor and ersatz Cherokee princess?  The Massachusetts Democratic Party has one they can loan you?+

      • brenro

        If she actually held a public office you might have something.

  • BajaDemocrats

    Interesting that you cite the Cook Political Report concerning redistricting, but use some obscure site claiming the GOP will pick up some seats. Even the Republican leadership concedes they will lose some seats, the highly respected Cook Political Reports predicts the Democrats will gain from 5-15 seats this November. Democrats need 25 seats to regain majority in the House. At best (for the GOP, not the country), Republicans will hold a very narrow majority in the House. We need centrist moderates Congressmen who will work from the middle to get things done, not more Tea Party “my way or the highway” extremists that have gridlocked the current Do Nothing Congress. Jesse Kelly does not reflect the moderate views of most southern Arizonans, Ron Barber does.

    And no, when the GOP looks south from Phoenix I sure don’t want them seeing a Phoenix of the south, I want them to see Old Pueblo.

    • fortbuckley

      Do you think Intrade is obscure?  You haven’t heard of Larry Sabato? 

      Sounds as if you concede that the GOP will almost certainly still be in the majority after the November elections.  Well then, my point holds—an congressman from the minority party is much more likely to be marginalized and ignored than one from the majority party. 

      Nancy Pelosi wasn’t an extremist?  The last time Democrats had a chance to pick a Speaker of the House—that’s who they picked?

      And, you’re saying that Ron Barber’s strength in Congress would be his ability to work with Republicans?  Yeah, I’m sure Nancy Pelosi and her henchmen/women will be JUST fine with that.

      • brenro

         Sounds like you personally authored the endless nauseating diatribe that’s been filling my mailbox every day for weeks. The Arizona Republican Party is trying very hard to buy this election with their prettily printed but tired and empty headed rhetoric, they obviously own you.

        • fortbuckley

          Is your name “Julia” in real life?  I wouldn’t be surprised…

      • BajaDemocrats

         Since Intrade has President Obama at a 60% change of being reelected for all of 2012 they do seem smarter than those who bought Face Book IPO stock. But you never tire or trying to put words in other people’s mouths. I specifically referenced “obscure” to the blog predicting a GOP gain of seats in the House this November. And I concede nothing, I have faith in the American voter. I pointed to one of the best respected firms, Cook Report, which predicts the best scenario for the GOP is to retain a much narrower majority.

        So your point is that voters should only vote for members of the party currently in the majority. One party rule doesn’t work so well, ask people in Russia or Germany. Voters should vote for the candidate who best reflects their views and values.

        • fortbuckley

          Please, David.  You tried to make light of my evidence by ignoring Intrade and Sabato’s Crystal Ball; I simply pointed that out to the readers.

          Ah, you’re comparing the Republicans to the Soviets and the Nazis!  Godwin’s Law is hereby in effect:  (When your opponent in an argument starts making direct or implied linkages between you and the Nazis, they are on weak ground and they know it.).

  • Denise_Early

    That is quite a ringing endorsement of Jesse Kelly! Why didn’t you refer to his experience, his positions on the issues (2010 or 2012?), his long history in southern Arizona?

    • fortbuckley

      Denise, Jesse’s not going to stand by while the Democrats write you checks that run up debt that our grandchildren will pay for.

      Reference your comment (crack?) about Jesse’s long history in southern Arizona…that reminds me of one of America’s strengths.  If you move somewhere (and start paying taxes there), you become “from” there and “of” there.  You’re not an “Auslander”, like the Turks in Germany, who lived there for generations, yet are treated as second-class citizens.  I considered myself a Tucsonan the minute I moved here.  If you and others don’t like that, well, whoop-de-doo!

      BTW, if you’re not happy that Jesse Kelly hasn’t lived here all his life, then surely you objected when Hillary Clinton ran for Senate from New York after living there for just a few days?  (Or, did the “D” in front of her name make it all OK?)

      As for policy positions, you’re ignoring (misunderstanding?) what the House of Representatives really is.  You exert clout in the House through your party, and the minority party has only as much clout as the majority wants to give it.

      Now, tell me—just how much clout will a moderate Democrat get in a party run by Nancy Pelosi and Debbie Wasserman Schultz.  Especially if that Democrat is seen reaching out meaningfully to Republicans.

      Virtually all Representatives hew closely to their party’s overall positions on policy matters.  Not surprisingly, I prefer that my Congressman advance the business-friendly policies of the Republicans, as opposed to the statist, big-government policies of the Democrats.  Based on the political polls I’m seeing, a growing number of Americans agree.

      • brenro

        Right in lockstep with the machine aren’t we Buckley? Are you personally a businessman or are you one of the sea of ignorant sycophants being run over by the party of one percenters?

        • fortbuckley

          This is your one and only warning, brenro. You are a guest on my blog.  Be polite or be gone.  If you don’t like it, get your own blog.

  • http://twitter.com/AzEagletarian Arizona Eagletarian

    If Tucson actually NEEDED a Republican in Congress, they had MUCH better choices than Jesse Kelly. An UNEDUCATED thug. Nothing more, nothing less. Don, you lost this argument when the female Air Force pilot lost the primary. Neither Jesse nor Frank Antenori have either the brains or the temperment to REPRESENT.

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