Washington Post DOWNGRADES Ron Barber’s Reelection Chancesby Don on Nov. 02, 2012, under Uncategorized
Courtesy of Aaron Blake at the Washington Post, that bastion of conservative journalism! Aaron writes for “The Fix,” a WaPo blog that covers politics…at least today.
House Republicans may actually add to their majority on Election Day
The Fix now projects that the 2012 race for the House is likely to be close to a draw, and there is even a fair chance that Republicans will add to their biggest majority in six decades on Tuesday.
Below, The Fix is updating the ratings of 10 House races, with most of them moving in the GOP’s direction. (FT Buckley note: I couldn’t embed the graphic from the WaPo article. So, if you really want to look “below,” you’ll have to follow the link above. Hey…only four more days, and all of this is over. Until the recounts and ballot challenges start.
In recent weeks, as Mitt Romney has gained a few points in the presidential race, a similar but slight shift has been happening at the House level: The generic ballot has tightened.
While Democrats had built a modest advantage on the generic ballot (a measure of whether people prefer a generic Republican or a generic Democrat) when President Obama built some momentum in September, that advantage is basically gone now.
In part because of this, Democrats have seen their candidates in conservative-leaning districts suffer. Friday, we are moving several red-district Democrats into more vulnerable ratings, including Reps. Ron Barber (D-Ariz.), Mark Critz (D-Pa.), Jim Matheson (D-Utah), Ben Chandler (D-Ky.) and Kathy Hochul (D-N.Y.).
And because those seats have shifted, it is no longer a foregone conclusion that Democrats will gain seats this year.
(All emphasis is…yes, both of my regular readers guessed it…added).
Here’s what “The Fix” has to say about Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District:
AZ-2 moves from “likely Democratic” to “lean Democratic”
Barber remains a slight favorite in his race with Republican former Air Force colonel Martha McSally. McSally has proven a better candidate than Jesse Kelly, who lost to Barber in the special election for Gabrielle Giffords House seat earlier this year.
Gee, it would be a shame if southern Arizona completely missed a GOP wave…
More on this, on Monday.