A Saturday smorgasbord of sense and nonsense: Here on the sunny side of the street, I’d estimate Arizona has about a 25 percent chance of ending Saturday night with a share of the Pac-10 lead.

Here’s how it works: The Wildcats have to pull off the small upset of Cal to get to 3-1. UCLA, likewise, has to upset lightly favored Stanford at home, dropping the Cardinal to 3-2.

I like the Bruins’ chances in that game. UCLA’s defensive front can match up with Stanford’s offensive line – something UA couldn’t do last week – and the Bruins’ offense is making progress. It’s teeny, but it’s progress.

With those two results, there probably would be four teams leading the way at 3-1: Arizona, Oregon (which is idle Saturday), USC (at Washington State) and Oregon State (at Washington).

That would make a very interesting week of buildup for Arizona’s homecoming game against USC next Saturday.

On the other hand

Here on the shady side of the street, we discuss UA coach Mike Stoops’ job security and wonder why the Wildcats are 6-15 under Stoops in games decided by eight points or less.

Arizona has just one fourth-quarter comeback under Stoops, that coming last season at Washington.

Players such as Nate Ness and Ricky Elmore talked this week about “overlooking” Stanford last week and “playing down” to some opponent’s supposed level.

Said Ness: “When we started winning a lot of guys were happy we were finally winning. The coaches were happy. Sometimes we got relaxed and teams came up and won.”

Not what we wanted to hear, but I’m not here to knock what college kids say when trying to explain sometimes-unexplainable losses. I blame the coaches.

As the record in close games and the dearth of comebacks suggest, Stoops has yet to find his groove as a consistent motivator. His teams play tight as the stakes increase.

And he might not want to live in the past, but failing to heed the lessons of overconfidence (losses to New Mexico and Stanford last season) has contributed to more lessons in overconfidence (losses to New Mexico and Stanford this season).

For the records

Willie Tuitama could set the Arizona career passing record on his first play Saturday night, needing 30 yards to pass Tom Tunnicliffe’s mark of 7,618 yards, set from 1980 to 1983.

That mark has stood for a quarter century, once again highlighting UA’s frequent passing woes.

When Tunnicliffe ended his career, he was fourth in conference history in career passing. Since then, he has been exceeded by 21 other quarterbacks, none from Arizona.

Tuitama might be rewriting UA’s record books, but he’s still considered just a fringe prospect for the NFL draft. And this is in a senior quarterback class that “might be the worst I’ve ever seen,” said Rob Rang, senior analyst for NFLdraftscout.com.

“He shows flashes,” Rang said of Tuitama. “But he’s a late-round guy, possibly even a free-agent prospect at this point.”

Show up just for kicks

I’m guessing no one paid full price for Saturday’s game to see two of the nation’s best punters, but that’s what you’ve got anyway.

Cal redshirt freshman Bryan Anger is ninth nationally with an average of 45.1 yards.

“I don’t think there is any doubt that Bryan can become an All-American punter,” Cal coach Jeff Tedford said at his Monday news conference.

“The only thing with him is consistency. . . . He can kick it deep, he can kick it high, he can spot kick it. There is no question in my mind he is as good of punter as I have ever been around.”

Arizona’s Keenyn Crier was a freshman All-American last season, averaging 43.7 yards per attempt. He hasn’t even had enough attempts this season to qualify for the NCAA stats, but he’s doing fine with a 41.8-yard average.

Take away his 2-yard shank to begin the season, and his average jumps to 44.2.

Should be a good field-position battle Saturday night, if nothing else.

Going Longshore

Tedford, after letting his top two quarterbacks split practice reps, has, not surprisingly, picked senior Nate Longshore to start over sophomore Kevin Riley.

Riley started the first four games, but Longshore got the call in the most recent game, a home victory over Arizona State.

This is a good choice. Longshore, the starter in 2006 and 2007, isn’t as mobile as Riley, but who needs mobility against Arizona’s substandard pass rush?

Around the Pac-10

USC plays at Washington State, which is notable for only one thing: Might the 43-point spread be the largest in conference history?

A half-point here or there, and it might be. It’s close.

According to Scott Wolf’s blog at the L.A. Daily News, borrowing information from the betting site Bodog, the biggest mismatch in the conference, using data that goes back to the 1985 season, was this:

The fabulous 1991 Washington team over Oregon State.

The Huskies were favored by 43 1/2 points. They won 58-6.

I wouldn’t expect the Trojans to play their starters more than a half against the Cougars, who are making at least a statistical run at being the worst in Pac-10 history.

Four Pac-10 opponents have outscored WSU by an average of 55.75 to 8.25.

Sounds like USC will cover.

The envelope, please

Down on its luck, facing a ranked team at home, this is the kind of game Arizona wins.

But the same fundamentals that existed last week, when I predicted a 1-point Stanford victory, are still in play.

Cal has a persistent running game, built on the speedy feet of Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen. Arizona has yet to prove it can stop a team with a good offensive line and a good rushing attack.

That doesn’t mean the Wildcats can’t win. Cal’s new-look receiving corps isn’t scary, so the defense could choose to cheat against the run and take its chances with some man coverage on the outside.

That’s not how Stoops likes to operate, however.

Until the Cats show more aptitude against the run, it’s difficult to pick them to win.

Cal 31, Arizona 28.

Anthony Gimino’s e-mail: agimino@tucsoncitizen.com

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