Tucson Citizen.com

Posts Tagged ‘Jefferson Graham’

Google makes it easier to find Smiths and Joneses

Wednesday, April 22nd, 2009

Google has good news for all the Mike Smiths, Leslie Joneses and others with common names who have trouble looking themselves up on Google.

Tuesday, Google introduced new tools to its search index that give folks named Jones and Smith – common names that often get lost in results – a chance to be found.

A “Profiles” section on Google search results lists the top four people at the top and others underneath. Users who take the time to get a Google ID and beef up their profile can show up there.

Danny Sullivan, editor of website Search Engine Land, says this is Google’s attempt to take on Facebook and Twitter, sites frequented by people trying to connect with past and new friends.

“This improves Google’s relevancy in people search,” he says.

Many people use Google to search for themselves, just to see how they’re presented to the outside world, and are unhappy with the results, says Joe Kraus, Google’s director of product management.

“They have little control over how they appear in Google,” he says. “And sometimes the search results are dominated by people with a large Web presence.”

While Kraus says that Google made these moves to improve the overall experience for searchers, analyst Greg Sterling of Sterling Market Intelligence says the change is also a way to get Internet users more linked to the Google ID feature – and potential services.

Once you have the ID, you might be more inclined to shop with Google Checkout, post pictures at Picasa Web Albums or build a blog on Google’s Blogger, all areas where Google stands to profit with either fees or ads, Sterling says. “It deepens your engagement with Google.”

Currently, names show up at the top of search results for people who either are well known, or have large Web presences and take the time to link their website, blog, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube and other sites. Leaving comments on other blogs and sites can also improve your position in search results.

The Profiles section previously listed your name and included a photo. Now the section allows multiple photos, relevant links to your website and blog, age and employment information – similar to information that sites such as LinkedIn and Facebook showcase.

Kraus says the online profiles will level the playing field a bit for searches. But interested people must take the time to add to their personal and Web data.

The most prominent names will still probably be listed on top, Kraus says, but the fact that all the Mike Smiths, for instance, will be linked together in a people section means “you won’t have to hunt and peck through the entire index looking for that person,” he says. “It helps you narrow the results down to people.”

To sign up, go to google.com/profiles.

YouTube adds TV shows and older films

Monday, April 20th, 2009

Google-owned YouTube, bowing to the success of rival online video site Hulu, is shifting beyond short-form clips with a new area devoted to TV shows and older movies.

Unlike Hulu, which has access to most of the current prime-time lineup from NBC and Fox (including “30 Rock” and “The Simpsons”), YouTube has only one major network prime-time TV show, CBS’ “Harper’s Island.”

The rest of the 1,000-plus shows are golden nuggets such as “Charlie’s Angels,” “Bewitched” and “The Addams Family.”

YouTube is the Web’s dominant video site, but advertisers have been reluctant to spend big bucks there because so much of the fare is homemade video clips and instructional videos.

Madison Avenue prefers sites like Hulu, which have “premium” fare and a more targeted audience, said Phil Leigh, an analyst at Inside Digital Media.

“This is a significant step forward for YouTube, but also a consolation prize,” he said. “The studios are more comfortable elsewhere and won’t give YouTube their best content.”

Still, he noted that YouTube’s audience of nearly 90 million users is “equal to all the cable TV and satellite” subscribers in the United States and more than 10 times the size of Hulu’s audience.

“If only one-tenth of the users care about “Bewitched” or “The Addams Family” and watch, advertisers will be very happy,” he said.

In March, according to market tracker Nielsen Online, Hulu had 8.8 million users in the U.S., and showed 348 million videos, compared with 89.4 million visitors and 5.7 billion videos shown at YouTube.

Before Thursday, YouTube’s vast offerings consisted of mostly short clips except for three older TV shows, the original “Star Trek,” “MacGyver” and “Beverly Hills, 90210.”

Beyond the new shows, YouTube also is introducing traditional advertising methods for sponsors, via what it calls Google TV. Standard ads will appear at the beginning and middle of the show.

What’s different is that the ads work on the same auction model Google uses for search ads: Marketers bid on advertising in specific shows and pay a rate based on market interest.

Facebook Connect makes signing into your sites fast

Wednesday, April 15th, 2009

PALO ALTO, Calif. – It’s an old idea: a central sign-in that would let you log into many of your favorite Internet sites, eliminating the hassle of remembering multiple passwords.

Microsoft’s Passport came and went. Google’s OpenSocial and the independent OpenID group are out there but haven’t picked up many high-profile partner sites. Now Facebook is trying – and so far succeeding – with Facebook Connect, which lets you use your Facebook credentials to log into sites across the Web. Since launching in December, the service has grown from 26 Web sites to more than 8,000.

Netflix, Citysearch, Vimeo, CNet, CNN, Showtime and many other top sites put the Facebook Connect tab on their pages – to encourage new sign-ups and greater use by Facebook’s 200 million members. For Facebook, it’s a way to extend its reach and bring more of the Web to the Facebook community.

When sites work with Connect, “They understand more about you, they know what you like, who you are, where you’re from, how old you are, what gender you are, and now they can custom tailor the site to make it more engaging,” said Ethan Beard, Facebook’s director of platform marketing.

Connect isn’t the first time Facebook has tried to open up its network to other sites. The ill-fated “Beacon” program sent user data to advertisers without member consent. It was quickly pulled back when members howled in protest. With Connect, Facebook has learned from its mistakes, said Charlene Li, an analyst with the Altimeter Group.

Beacon “felt like a violation,” said Li. “This time, it’s clear you’re opting to share the information with the site.”

Facebook said participating Web sites only get to store user information for 24 hours – it must be deleted after that and cannot be shared. Still, partner sites are thrilled to get access to one of the Web’s largest communities.

Video-sharing service Vimeo said 50,000 people have used Facebook Connect to log in since it began offering it earlier this year – 40,000 of them new users.

“Our sign-up process is easy, but with Connect it’s one less text box, and that makes a difference for people,” said Andrew Pile, Vimeo’s director of development.

Video-rental service Netflix grants Facebook members access to their Netflix accounts to talk about movies and share reviews.

“One of the first topics that always comes up during dinners with friends is great movies,” said Mike Hart, director of engineering for Netflix. By offering the Connect feature, “We enable great social interactions.”

Facebook members can’t use their ID to sign up for Netflix service because that is a more detailed registration that requires credit cards, said Hart. Nor can Facebook members add movies to their Netflix rental cue – yet. “We hope to add that in the near future,” he said.

Social Gaming Network produces iPhone games, including iGolf, which simulates a golf swing. Via Connect, folks logged into Facebook can play along.

The company’s more advanced Agency Wars is a multiplayer game that charges a fee to advance to higher levels. CEO Shervin Pishevar said sales have been stronger through Facebook than iTunes “because you can challenge and attack and align yourself with friends on Facebook.”

Microsoft had the same idea a decade ago when it started the Passport program: Make it easier on users to interact with sites and store their credit card information in one place. It gave up in 2004 when many sites – most notably eBay – quit the program.

“Microsoft was 10 years too early,” said Jeremiah Owyang, an analyst for Forrester Research. Now, though, “The influx of people using these social networks is reaching a momentum like we’ve never seen before.”

Both companies and consumers have a clear reason to want to participate, he said. For Web sites like Vimeo and Netflix, adding Connect is simple, Li said. “They don’t have to go out and build a social network, and in turn, they get more engaged users.”

For Facebook, she said, it’s about extending the Facebook experience beyond communication and quick games, things that Facebook does really well.

Beard concurs. He said Connect has taken off because, “We understand that not all the sharing will take place inside Facebook. We want to give users the power to share anywhere, wherever they are on the Web.”

Of course, that also creates the potential for clutter as folks post even more material to profiles. But Gartner analyst Andrew Frank said there are “ways of filtering so not every action shows up.”

Google’s happy holidays end with $5.7B revenue

Friday, January 23rd, 2009

Strong holiday advertising sales led Google to a successful fourth quarter, even in recessionary times, with revenue of $5.7 billion, up 18 percent from the year-ago quarter.

Net income, however, tumbled 68 percent to $382.4 million, from $1.21 billion a year ago, as Google took a one-time charge to write down $1.09 billion in its investments in AOL and wireless company Clearwire.

“Both deals made sense to us then and make sense to us now,” said Google CEO Eric Schmidt, on a conference call with analysts.

He said Google has responded to the economic turndown with “prudent management” of the business.

Like other tech companies, Google has had some layoffs — 100 contract employees were let go this month, and Google is hiring less. Only 99 employees were added in the quarter; Google used to add more than 100 employees weekly.

To hold onto the staffers it has, Google announced a voluntary one-for-one stock-option exchange to be issued in March. About 85 percent of Google employees have some worthless options. (An option is a right to buy stock at a set price at a future date.)

Schmidt and other Google execs reiterated during the call that it intends to make it through the recession without cutting back on investment. “We’re in this for the long haul,” Schmidt said.

Google, unlike other companies, doesn’t give sales estimates for upcoming quarters, or guidance.

“The fourth quarter was the easy part, we had the holidays,” said Schmidt. He added that future quarters would be “uncharted territory. We don’t know how long this period will last, but we’re prepared to get through it.”

As always, Google generated nearly all of its revenue from the sale of online advertising, mostly those text ads that appear near search results. Paid clicks increased nearly 18 percent from the year ago quarter, Google said.

Google dominates search advertising, with a 63.5 percent market share in December, according to measurement firm ComScore Media Metrix. No. 2 Yahoo has 20.5 percent and Microsoft 8.3 percent.

“Google has obviously figured out the formula that is almost recession proof,” says Allen Weiner, an analyst with Gartner. “Companies will still need to advertise, and pay-per-click ads are affordable.”

Investors were upbeat. Google’s stock closed up $4.61 in after-hours trading, at $311.11 a share, after closing up in regular trading as well.

App for iPhone gives Joost a boost

Wednesday, December 24th, 2008

LOS ANGELES — Web video service Joost is looking to the iPhone for a big comeback.

Joost was one of the first services to take the idea of watching TV shows online. But after launching last year to much fanfare, it was eclipsed by newer sites such as Hulu and Veoh.

Earlier this month, however, Joost got a head start on its competitors with a free iPhone application that lets you watch TV shows from CBS, Comedy Central, Warner Bros. and Sony at no charge over a Wi-Fi connection.

It is already one of the most popular iPhone applications. Joost CEO Mike Volpi hopes it will encourage folks to take a second look.

“Ten million people have iPhones,” says Volpi, on a recent trip to Hollywood to meet with networks about working with Joost. “We want to give them an application where they can get to know us, and hopefully get them back to our Web site.”

James McQuivey, an analyst at Forrester Research, says Apple’s iPhone is Joost’s ticket from oblivion. “The only way to get a lot of licensed content on the iPhone now is to buy it at iTunes,” he says.

Apple sells TV shows at iTunes from the major networks for 99 cents and up. The company says it has sold more than 200 million TV episodes in the last two years.

Still, the future for digital TV viewing isn’t in such paid downloads but in the kind of experience we’ve been accustomed to since the 1950s — advertiser supported, says McQuivey.

“Just look at the numbers,” he says.

According to market tracker ComScore Media Metrix, Hulu, which launched publicly in March, showed 200 million videos in October, or as many shows in one month as Apple has sold in two years, he notes.

For now, Joost has a good ways to go to catch up to competitors. It showed only 272,000 videos in October, according to ComScore.

However, Joost is on the upswing. It saw 564,000 visitors in November — up from just under 100,000 in July, says market tracker Quantcast.

McQuivey is so bullish on folks watching TV shows with commercials online that even in the economic downturn, Forrester projects $900 million in video advertising on sites such as Hulu and Veoh this year, growing to $1.7 billion next year.

Peer-to-peer roots

Joost was created by Niklas Zennstrom and Janus Friis. They’re the guys who developed Kazaa, at one time the world’s most-popular unauthorized music-sharing application. They also created Internet phone service Skype, which they sold to eBay. (Zennstrom and Friis are no longer managing the company; they remain on the board of directors.)

Both Kazaa and Skype used peer-to-peer technology, which links computers together to move big files efficiently across a broad audience. With Joost, they also thought P2P was the answer to moving huge video files.

But then technology changed. Video files became easier to compress, and broadband networks got better at moving video, says McQuivey.

Shows on Joost couldn’t be viewed unless you downloaded an application. That was a tough burden to overcome, because many folks are resistant to putting additional software on computers.

Meanwhile, new Web site-based TV services launched from Hulu, Veoh and Fancast — along with network sites from CBS, NBC, ABC and Fox. All attracted millions of viewers without asking them to download anything.

In October, Joost finally joined the trend when it relaunched as a Web service. It has since shut down its old P2P applications. The only way to see Joost now is via the Web or iPhone.

When Joost was just a gleam in the creators’ eyes, “There was virtually nothing available legally online in TV,” says Volpi. “It’s been an amazing transformation in just two years.”

Joost’s next challenge is programming. While it has the big shows from CBS, they’re also available on most TV sites, such as Veoh, Fancast and the new Sling.com. Those sites also all have deals to present shows from NBC and Fox.

That’s what brought Volpi to L.A. in early December, to meet with networks to persuade them to put their shows on Joost.

“I want to show them that we now have a successful site, that we’re innovative and that they can make a lot of money by putting their content on Joost.”

Positives and negatives

He also got to show off the iPhone application, which is a typical early-adopter good news/bad news proposition.

The positive is that iPhone users now have free access to a large collection of prime-time TV shows and other fare for the first time on the device.

The negative: You have to be in a Wi-Fi zone to get it.

Joost’s application doesn’t work on Apple partner AT&T’s 3G phone network. That means you can’t access TV shows if you’re standing in line at a movie, waiting for a live sporting event or sitting in the back seat of the car and bored silly — unless there’s Wi-Fi.

Volpi says this is because he doesn’t have full mobile rights to the licensed TV shows. He predicts he’ll get 3G rights soon, as well.

Meanwhile, Joost got a boost by being first out of the gate with a TV application for the iPhone, but McQuivey predicts it won’t have the market to itself for long.

“You can bet that every other media company is looking at this, and saying, ‘Why aren’t we there?’ ”

YouTube expands its horizons, and its video time limits

Wednesday, October 22nd, 2008

SAN BRUNO, Calif. — YouTube, the world’s most popular video-sharing site, grew to dominate the field with a collection of funny amateur videos, political gotchas and unauthorized TV and movie content.

The new YouTube, more popular than ever, has a different look. Much, but not all, unlicensed content is gone, replaced by approved material from such producers as CBS, HBO, Showtime, Sony Television and Lionsgate.

Google-owned YouTube also has tossed aside its 10-minute-video limit rule. It is running full-length episodes of TV shows, starting with a test of three CBS-owned shows: “Star Trek,” “MacGyver” and “Beverly Hills, 90210.” The moves are a response to competition from sites offering full-length videos including Hulu, Veoh and blip.tv, which are gaining traction with viewers.

“YouTube is a clip culture,” says Jordan Hoffner, YouTube’s director of content partnerships. “But we saw that there was a demand for longer form, and a market that’s growing, so we decided to try it.”

YouTube last week showed its first full-length Hollywood “studio” film on its Screening Room channel for independent filmmakers. Director Wayne Wang’s (“The Joy Luck Club”) two-hour “The Princess of Nebraska,” from Magnolia Pictures, has attracted more than 150,000 views already.

Screening Room launched in June to feature film festival offerings, mostly short films. For non-pros, YouTube has a 10-minute limit on uploaded videos, but Hoffner says he hopes to have more longer films showing by the end of the year outside of Screening Room.

YouTube so rules online video that it showed 5.3 billion videos in September, according to measurement firm Nielsen Online. The closest runner-up was Yahoo, with 264,266 video streams.

But as YouTube has grown even more popular, Hollywood has gone to great lengths to create and nurture video alternatives, says Phil Leigh, an analyst with Inside Digital Media.

Hulu, launched to the general public by NBC Universal and News Corp’s 20th Century Fox in March, was the sixth most popular site for video in September, according to Nielsen, with 142,261 streamed videos.

It offers Internet favorites such as clips and full episodes of “Saturday Night Live,” “Family Guy” and “The Simpsons.” And like YouTube, it offers tools to share those clips on Web sites and blogs.

YouTube’s most viewed entertainment channel is from partner CBS — clips from “Late Show with David Letterman,” sitcoms, news and sporting events. Competing sites Veoh, Fancast and AOL tout their own partnerships for clips and full programs from NBC, Fox and ABC.

Hoffner says he isn’t bothered by the omission of NBC, ABC and Fox.

“We’ve got thousands of partners,” he says. “We’re talking with everybody.”

When YouTube began, Hollywood was infuriated that so many unauthorized clips ran next to homemade videos. Viacom, owner of Paramount Pictures, MTV and Comedy Central, responded with a $1 billion copyright infringement lawsuit against YouTube, which has yet to go to trial.

Leigh ties the absence of NBC, Fox and ABC from YouTube to the lawsuit. “The networks are waiting to see what happens,” he says.

In late 2007, YouTube tried to deal with Hollywood’s concern by launching a system to deal with fan clips. Once the copyright holder identifies the clip and contacts Google, they are offered two choices: have the material taken down, or let YouTube place ads on the clip, and split the revenue. YouTube says 90 percent choose the revenue option.

Drumming up revenue

Google doesn’t break out results for YouTube, which it paid $1.7 billion for in 2006, so its profitability is a mystery. Google execs say that the unit is profitable but has a ways to go.

“We’re working but have not yet, in my view, gotten a breakthrough around monetization,” Google CEO Eric Schmidt told CNBC earlier this year.

Forrester Research analyst James McQuivey says advertisers have been reluctant to spend big dollars on YouTube. Instead they prefer the more targeted ad approach on sites like Hulu and ABC.com, where people come to watch specific shows.

“If you’re an advertiser, where will you put your money?” he says. “In front of content you’re not sure about, or behind a series like “30 Rock,” a known brand?”

YouTube initially shunned “pre-rolls” — TV-like commercials that run before a video clip — in favor of embedded clickable links that didn’t interrupt the flow of the program.

Madison Avenue prefers pre-rolls, McQuivey says.

But for the “Star Trek,” “MacGyver” and “Beverly Hills, 90210″ TV episodes, YouTube has gone totally traditional, offering old-fashioned pre-rolls that can’t be paused, fast-forwarded or even muted.

“The ads match this type of professional content,” Hoffner says. “Our advertisers tell us what they want.”

———

Top 10 online video sites

How YouTube stacks up to the competition by number of video streams, as of September:

YouTube … 5.3 billion

Yahoo … 264,266

Fox Interactive (1) … 242,444

MSN … 164,776

Nickelodeon … 162,971

Hulu … 142,261

ESPN … 127,794

CNN … 117,708

MTV … 97,207

Disney … 87,193

1 — includes MySpace

Source: Nielsen Online

IPhone carries Apple’s profits up

Wednesday, October 22nd, 2008

Oh, that iPhone!

Apple’s combination cell phone, iPod and Internet device now represents nearly 40 percent of sales, a “truly stunning” achievement, says Apple CEO Steve Jobs.

Apple on Tuesday reported quarterly revenue of $7.9 billion, up 27 percent from $6.2 billion in the same quarter a year ago. Earnings rose to $1.14 billion, up from $904 million.

However, sales and profits for the quarter were actually much higher, Jobs said, since “subscription” accounting for the iPhone forces the company to spread the impact of its sales over two years. Otherwise, Apple revenue would have been $11.6 billion, with earnings of $2.4 billion.

“If this isn’t stunning, I don’t know what is,” Jobs said in a conference call with analysts.

Breaking out the complete numbers “tells a very different story,” says Gene Munster, an analyst with Piper Jaffray. Munster said he was less interested in the numbers Apple reports to its auditors than in the bigger picture of how the company performed. “The value of the stock is about what’s really going on.”

Apple said it has now sold 13 million iPhones — three million more than Jobs’ original prediction of 10 million in the first calendar year.

The company said it sold more phones in the quarter than BlackBerry-maker Research in Motion — 6.9 million, versus 6.1 million BlackBerrys.

Sales of Apple computers and iPods also were very strong. Apple said it sold 2.6 million computers — more than any quarter. Sales of 11 million iPods represents its best non-holiday quarter.

Still, said Jobs: “We don’t yet know how this economic downturn will affect Apple.”

Apple said it saw some slowdown in sales in September as the economy began heading south, particularly in sales to schools.

But Jobs said Apple would not start selling low-end computers. Apple customers, Jobs said, were more likely to “delay” purchases than switch from Apple.

More importantly, he said, Apple is sitting on $25 billion in cash reserves and “zero” debt.

“We may get buffeted around a bit by the waves, but we’ll be fine,” he said.

For now, says Munster, “Apple seems to be bucking the trend.”

Investors were enthusiastic about the results. Apple rose $13.60 in after hours trading, to close at $103.93, after falling $6.95 during the regular session.

Software update to deal with iPhone issues, Jobs says

Wednesday, September 10th, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO — Frustrated owners of Apple’s iPhone get some relief this weekend: A new software update promises to fix many customer issues.

The update — available Friday — will improve battery life, help solve dropped calls and software performance, Apple CEO Steve Jobs said at a media event here Tuesday.

“This is a big update,” Jobs told USA TODAY in an interview later. “I think people will be really happy. All these bugs have been fixed.”

Apple staged the event to shine a light on new iPods. The line of music and video players has been refreshed, in part using “accelerometer” motion sensor technology first introduced on the iPhone.

The new Nano iPods ($149 and $199), the pint-size version of the bigger iPod, use a shake technique to advance to the next song. And the iPod Touch, similar to the iPhone, minus the phone, is being repositioned primarily as a gaming device. New Apple advertisements promote it as “the funnest iPod ever.”

Apple has sold some 7 million revamped iPhones since July. Along with that new iPhone, Apple launched the online “App Store,” where third-party vendors sell or give away software for the iPhone and iPod Touch.

Calling it “mind-blowing,” Jobs said more than 100 million applications have been downloaded to date.

Gene Munster, an analyst with Piper Jaffray, said iPod sales had slowed down, compared with other Apple products. Unit sales were up 12 percent in the latest quarter, versus 40 percent for computers.

“The iPod isn’t a major growth story anymore,” he said. “The moves today (are) what Apple needed to keep some momentum going.”

Van Baker, an analyst with Gartner, said Apple now has “its best iPod lineup ever. There are no holes; they’ve got every corner covered.”

TV shows in iTunes are now also available in high-definition. Standard definition shows sell for $1.99; high-definition for $2.99.

And NBC, which left the iTunes store in a dispute about pricing, has returned.

“NBC and Apple are both mature companies, and we had some disagreements, and now they’re back with us,” Jobs said. “The customers … wanted us to act like adults, so we did.”

Jobs opened his remarks by poking fun at critics who said he looked so thin at the last Apple event that he was clearly ill. He smiled under a slide that said, “The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.”

In the USA TODAY interview, he said the furor “put me in a small distinguished club … with Mark Twain, and Alfred Nobel. (Nobel’s) obituary was published (while he was alive), and it’s what caused him to create the Nobel Prize. We meet every other Thursday and talk about it.”

Nobel died in 1895.

Wall Street reacted negatively to the health speculation, since Jobs is so closely identified with Apple. “It’s weird,” Jobs said. “If I do the Macworld keynotes, which I love to do, everybody says Apple is me. If I don’t do them, people say I must be in the hospital.”

Filmmakers with a cause get new creative outlet

Thursday, July 17th, 2008

Serial entrepreneur and longtime AOL exec Ted Leonsis started producing documentaries, only to be aghast at how hard it is for most producers to get their movies distributed.

So he turned to the Internet for a solution. His SnagFilms, which makes its debut today, targets the social-networking crowd with a website that offers full-length documentaries that can be shared on blogs, websites and personal pages on Facebook and MySpace.

“Because everything is digital now, costs are down, quality is up, and we have this whole new generation of non-fiction filmmakers,” says Leonsis, majority owner of two Washington, D.C.-area sports teams and chairman of SnagFilms. “There’s more product, but less distribution. I wanted to solve that problem.”

Leonsis started SnagFilms with AOL founder Steve Case and venture capitalist Miles Gilburne.

He says the cut-and-paste simplicity of adding movies to your Web page is like “putting a movie theater directly onto your site. You choose the programming and present it to your audience.”

Leonsis calls his new $10 million venture “filmanthropy”- a way to promote social causes to a worldwide audience. Each film on his site has links to donate to organizations and get involved. His 2007 documentary “Nanking” won awards at Sundance and from the Writers Guild of America. It deals with the Japanese invasion of Nanking, China, during World War II.

SnagFilms is launching with 250 films from such producers as National Geographic, PBS and IndiePix, and includes the recent hit “Super Size Me”.

Unlike most online video sites, it’s not open to user-generated content. Instead, professionally produced videos must be submitted and accepted. SnagFilms promises filmmakers 50 percent of advertising revenue. Each film has several ad slots.

“The Oscar-winning documentary of 2007 did $250,000 at the box office, which means that only 25,000 people saw it,” Leonsis says. “Most videos on YouTube see at least 100,000 views, which would be like $1 million at the box office.”

Phil Leigh, an analyst for Inside Digital Media, says the notion of putting Web content on a personal Web page or blog makes sites like Facebook and MySpace the “network affiliates” of the 21st century. “It’s a real trend, and it’s how content gets spread and seen by millions.”

Bob Alexander, who runs independent film distributor IndiePix, calls SnagFilms a “brilliant” use of the Internet to reach people. “Getting 500,000 people into a theater to see your work is extremely difficult, if not impossible,” he says. “But on the Internet, it can happen easily.”

If advertising comes through, Alexander thinks producers will make roughly double what they get from cable TV exposure.

“The magic of a site like this is that films will reside online, around the world, and people can see them anytime they want,” says producer Les Guthman, whose XPLR Films has four environmental films on SnagFilms.

Faster, cheaper iPhone arrives July 11

Sunday, July 6th, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO – Get ready for iPhone-mania 2.0.

On July 11, Apple will launch a zippier version of the iPhone starting at $199 with a two-year AT&T contract, down from $399. It will have built-in GPS for traffic directions, run on a speedy “3G” wireless network from partner AT&T and offer corporate e-mail support.

“Sales will explode,” says Van Baker, an analyst with Gartner.

The iPhone – a combination phone/iPod and Internet device – first began selling last June. “As we arrive at the iPhone’s first birthday, we’re going to take it to the next level,” Apple CEO Steve Jobs said Monday.

The $199 model can hold 8 gigabytes of music, photos and other media. A $299, 16 GB is available in a new color, white.

AT&T will be the exclusive U.S. distributor for another four years. One significant change: With the 3G version, AT&T said Apple will no longer receive a portion of monthly service revenue.

Instead, AT&T will fork out a substantial subsidy to help keep the price low. AT&T is hoping to drive mobile data usage and draw new subscribers.

While the subsidy – which telecom analysts peg in the $200 range – initially will put pressure on AT&T’s profit margins, it could help push the iconic iPhone into the mainstream.

Jobs told USA TODAY that current iPhone customers can buy a new one and have their old plan morphed into a new two-year arrangement.

“This is a very positive move for AT&T, and it will gain share from Sprint and Verizon,” analyst Tim Horan of Oppenheimer wrote in a note to clients.

While the iPhone has been a critical and consumer hit, Internet speed has been a chief complaint. The new phone uses faster networks that will dramatically improve mobile Web surfing.

Apple said it has sold 6 million iPhones. Tech analysts think it will meet its goal of 10 million by the end of the year. Over the next several months, Apple will roll out official sales in 70 countries, up from six.

In July, the company will launch the iPhone App store on iPhones and the iPod Touch (like the iPhone, without the phone). It lets users easily download applications.

Getting such access to Apple customers “is phenomenal,” says Andrew Erlichson, CEO of photo-sharing site Phanfare, which introduced an iPhone application Monday. “Power is shifting from the wireless carriers to the handset manufacturers.”

Apple also introduced a new version of its $99-a-year .Mac backup service. Now called Mobile Me, it automatically updates e-mails, contacts and other personal data across a computer and iPhone.

Leslie Cauley of USA TODAY in New York contributed to this article.

New iPhone may make inroads with business users

MICHELLE KESSLER

USA TODAY

SAN FRANCISCO – The new iPhone is built for business – and that makes it a real challenge to the BlackBerry and other corporate cell phone systems for the first time, tech analysts say.

Unlike its predecessor, the 3G iPhone can connect with most corporate e-mail systems and handle Microsoft PowerPoint presentations. It also has tools that make it easier for corporate technology departments to manage. And it comes with a faster cellular Internet connection, which can better handle data-intensive business applications.

That makes the iPhone “a serious threat to BlackBerry and the Windows Mobile camp,” says tech analyst Tim Bajarin at researcher Creative Strategies.

Although the iPhone has been around less than a year, it has already gained about 20 percent of the market for smart cell phones in the United States, says researcher Gartner. (Smartphones typically have an operating system and the ability to download outside programs.)

But most of those sales were to consumers. Companies were reluctant to adopt the iPhone because it lacked business-friendly features, says tech analyst Mark Tauschek at Info-Tech Research. That’s likely to change with the new model, which “is certainly in the same ballpark” as the popular BlackBerry e-mail device, he says.

The BlackBerry, made by Canadian firm Research In Motion, has been a hit with corporations and dominates the U.S. smartphone market with 42 percent share, Gartner says.

The BlackBerry’s success has allowed RIM to keep prices relatively high. A top-of-the-line model costs about $350 with a two-year cell phone contract from AT&T, before promotional discounts. An iPhone used to cost $399, but Apple has dropped the price to $199 with a two-year cell phone contract. “It makes the iPhone much more competitive,” says Gartner cell phone analyst Hugues de la Vergne.

But RIM and other Apple rivals aren’t standing still, Tauschek says. He points to the Touch Pro, a feature-packed business phone running Microsoft’s Windows Mobile that was announced last week by Taiwanese phone-maker HTC. Like the iPhone, it has a Global Positioning System (GPS), a touchscreen, and 3G connectivity. And it has a slide-out keyboard, which the iPhone lacks.

“There’s a lot of nice, slick Windows (phones) out there,” he says.

Apple also has an uphill battle to climb when it comes to winning over corporations. One of the big benefits of the new iPhone is that it’s easier for computer developers to write programs for it. But in most big businesses, “There are still not a lot of Macs or Mac developers,” says Ross Rubin, tech analyst at market researcher NPD.

Many companies may choose to stick with Windows-based phones, which were designed to work with Windows PCs, he says.

The iPhone’s consumer-friendly design also may deter some business users. Many corporate phones, including most BlackBerrys, the Palm Treo and Motorola Q, have physical “qwerty” keyboards. The iPhone uses a virtual keyboard that appears on its touchscreen, which some users don’t care for. “That will always be an issue,” Bajarin says.

Phonemakers aren’t the only companies that could be affected by the new iPhone. Manufacturers of GPS systems are likely to also be hit, says Bajarin. “If I have a phone that has full GPS, why would I go out and buy a (stand-alone navigation system) from Garmin?” Bajarin says.

It’s presto, change-o as new iPhone is unveiled

Monday, June 9th, 2008

LOS ANGELES – Wouldn’t it be cool if you could use your cell phone to monitor activities in your home, say, to zoom in for an audio/video check of the baby’s room while you were at work, or even adjust the heat?

Or how about going to a theme park and checking your phone to discover if other friends are there, and arrange a meeting place?

Such concepts are not pie in the sky, but actual programs that have been developed for Apple’s iPhone, the combination iPod/phone and Internet device first introduced to acclaim a year ago.

Consumers and reviewers alike gushed about its compact, futuristic design and sensitive touch-screen. But even its biggest fans have had one persistent chief complaint: The iPhone’s Internet network from partner AT&T was too slow.

So get ready for iPhone 2.0: Monday Apple is widely expected to introduce a new, zippier version that will operate on both a faster AT&T network, and speedier networks internationally. The price could be $199, according to people with knowledge of the matter, down from the current $399 and $499. Sources declined to be cited by name or affiliation because Apple and AT&T haven’t authorized anybody to speak publicly about pricing until after Monday’s announcement. The $199 price is being subsidized, though USA TODAY could not confirm details.

According to sources, the new Apple device will be available in Apple and AT&T stores beginning this summer.

For consumers, the shift to 3G will be akin to going “from dial-up to broadband,” says Gene Munster, an analyst with Piper Jaffray.

A new iPhone could go a long way toward fulfilling Apple CEO Steve Jobs’ prediction that he’d sell 10 million iPhones in its first 18 months. So far, Apple has sold just over 5 million phones. Analysts who follow the company think a lower price and new international markets make it a sure bet that another 5 million will be snapped up this year.

Apple stopped taking new orders for the iPhone in May, presumably to make way for the new model. Sales could substantially beef up Apple’s bottom line, Munster says. Apple reported revenue of $24.0 billion in 2007. Munster sees sales growing to $34 billion this year, and $46.9 billion in 2009, thanks to the iPhone.

Beyond the new hardware, the biggest buzz around the iPhone this week will be the new uses being dreamed up for it. The software add-ons have the potential to turn the iPhone into the pocket computer of the future, as essential, Apple hopes, as the keys in your pocket or purse.

The iPhone economy

Apple’s sold-out Worldwide Developer’s Conference in San Francisco is the setting for Monday’s iPhone lovefest, where software developers will convene to hear about the new iPhone. They’re eager to hear CEO Jobs talk about how they can participate in what independent analyst Richard Doherty calls the “iPhone economy.”

Earlier this year, instead of controlling everything that went on the iPhone, Apple released what’s called an SDK – for “software developer’s kit” – a roadmap that allows programmers to create applications for the iPhone. The first of those outside programs is expected to be released Monday, and made available on the iPhone and iPod Touch – the iPod that’s just like the iPhone, except without a phone.

“Opening the pot of gold to developers is as important as the iPhone itself,” Doherty says.

Once Apple approves of a piece of software from an independent developer, it provides distribution – via a new “App” store on the iPhone and iPod Touch – and takes a 30 percent cut of revenue. “This means that anyone, whether you’re 14 years old or 40, if you’re a large company with 300 employees or a guy in a garage, has access to Apple’s customers,” Doherty says. “You don’t have to make a presentation to a series of different handset manufacturers or wireless carriers. This is unheard of in software.”

Access to the iPhone App store means that “we have a way to reach millions of consumers,” says Darren Vengroff, the co-founder of Pelago, which developed Whrrl, a social network application.

Whrrl takes the online review phenomenon and marries it to the iPhone. The idea is that if you’re searching for a restaurant, with a few clicks you can see which ones your friends – who are also Whrrl members – recommend. Whrrl is currently available for two BlackBerry phones and the Nokia N95.

The iPhone App store will “get so much traffic,” adds Paul Dawes, CEO of iControl Networks, another iPhone developer. “It’s not random traffic, but consumers who are actively looking for our types of applications.”

The iControl application is the aforementioned home-monitoring system, or as Dawes calls it, “next-generation home security.” With iControl, a device is plugged into your home network and connects to security panels, webcams and home-automation devices, allowing the homeowner control away from home. You can keep up with the action while at work on your desktop, or with the iPhone out in the field.

The iControl monitoring system is sold via home-security companies and a monthly subscription, but the iPhone application will be available for free.

Video game company Sega, best known for the old “Sonic the Hedgehog” video game, wowed attendees at a March meeting for developers when it showed off the “Super Monkey Ball” game for the iPhone.

There’s no joystick controller for the iPhone to move the characters from left to right, so developer Ethan Einhorn came up with a novel idea: Just move the phone up or down, left or right, and the characters respond to the movement.

“What’s great for a company like ours is that Apple has already defined the iPhone as a place to acquire and enjoy entertainment,” says Sega’s Einhorn. “Video games are the next natural step.”

Earlier this year, legendary Silicon Valley venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers (which had a role in funding Google, Amazon and AOL) started what it calls the “iFund,” a $100 million pot looking to invest in iPhone application start-ups.

Kleiner Perkins invested in both iControl and Pelago, and is actively looking at 50 other start-ups, says partner Matt Murphy.

“We received about 2,000 proposals so far, and that’s more than a factor of 20 of what we would have received from the general mobile sector,” Murphy says. “What Apple has done is brought a lot of entrepreneurs off the sidelines. They feel ‘open mobile’ is here.”

Historically, if you had an idea you wanted to sell to the mobile industry, you had to pay a visit to Sprint, T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon. All have huge customer bases, but their phones work on different wireless systems. This requires a programmer to make the program in different ways.

Apple isn’t the only company pushing “open mobile.” To great fanfare earlier this year, Google introduced “Android,” which it describes as a new wireless operating system that can be used with multiple carriers.

Google has been shy about releasing much Android information, but says we’ll see phones in the second half of the year.

Unlike Apple, which produces its phone and has AT&T as the wireless network customers have to work with in the U.S., Google is reaching out to many. Wireless manufacturers HTC, LG, Motorola and Samsung are all participating in Google’s “Open Handset Alliance,” along with carriers Sprint, T-Mobile and Japan’s NTT DoCoMo.

A home run?

When the iPhone was released last year, eager consumers waited on line for days to get a crack at buying one of the first ones. A year later, Apple says it’s sold over 5 million iPhones.

That pales in comparison with competitors. Windows Mobile, which provides software for phones from HTC, Samsung, Palm and others, says it will sell 20 million phones this year.

Some 1 billion cell phones are sold every year. No. 1 manufacturer Nokia, for instance, sells more cell phones in a week than Apple has shipped to date. According to researcher Gartner, Nokia sold 435 million cell phones in 2007. Munster says the “real verdict” on the iPhone’s success hasn’t been reached. “The numbers are too small to call a home run.”

Charles Golvin, an analyst with market tracker Forrester Research, says iPhone’s impact has been felt by the entire wireless industry, which has been trying in vain for several years to sell lucrative add-on data plans.

“They have done a very poor job marketing these services,” he says. “What Apple and the iPhone did was really communicate in a very simple way what the data plan could do for you. It’s the Internet, but on your phone.”

With a data plan, consumers pay an additional monthly charge – usually $15 to $25 – for access to the Internet on their phones, adding greatly to the carrier’s bottom line.

Golvin says handset competitors like LG, Sony Ericsson and Nokia are “really blatant” about how their new phones are clones of the iPhone. “The iPhone has raised awareness of what’s possible.”

Contributing: Leslie Cauley, USA TODAY, in New York

iPhone business update coming

Friday, March 7th, 2008

CUPERTINO, Calif. – The iPhone is ready for the business world.

On Thursday, Apple released a limited test of software for companies to use that promises to make the coveted iPod/Internet device/cell phone as ubiquitous as BlackBerrys and Treos.

In June, the free software update will be widely available, letting workers connect to Microsoft Exchange servers for Outlook e-mail, contacts and calendar information and to virtual private networks. Corporate IT departments will have to give their blessing first. “This addresses all the concerns of enterprise,” said Phil Schiller, Apple senior vice president.

Also Thursday, Apple invited software engineers to its campus for a preview of a software development kit (SDK) – the roadmap to building applications for the iPhone. Apple hopes to see hundreds of new iPhone games and other applications for social networking, music and more. In June, it will open an iPhone Apps store, available on phones and computers, via iTunes.

The company said it will keep 30 percent of any revenue from developers, who must have their applications approved by Apple.

“Hopefully, people will find the iPhone even more desirable,” said Apple CEO Steve Jobs.

To help fuel development, Jobs brought legendary Silicon Valley investor John Doerr of Kleiner Perkins on stage. Doerr said his firm has set aside $100 million to invest in companies developing new iPhone applications.

“The iPhone is the creation of the third great platform (after computing and the Internet),” said Doerr. “It knows who you are and where you are. It’s bigger than the PC.”

Software developer Kirk Loevner, CEO of Epocrates, which provides medical information for health care professionals, said an iPhone application is the No. 1 request from clients.

His software helps doctors and nurses quickly look up information on drug interactions. The iPhone’s unique big-screen interface “will make it easy to visually identify pills,” he says.

Thursday’s announcements will dramatically remake the iPhone but won’t improve its slower network, says Van Baker, an analyst at researcher Gartner. Apple partner AT&T has said it would bring faster service to the iPhone, which now runs on an older AT&T network.

That the iPhone will work with corporate e-mail “is a big deal,” says Shaw Wu, an analyst at American Technology Research. “It makes the iPhone now a viable alternative to the BlackBerry.”

The software update will also work on the iPod Touch media player, for a small charge still to be determined.

Google Apps attractive to small firms

Wednesday, February 13th, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO – When Ritu Raj opened Wag Hotel here as a luxury home-away-from-home for pampered dogs, he decided he would run the business on Google applications.

Employees check in dogs on touch-screen monitors, make appointments and use e-mail, all with Google Apps. The Web-based suite of tools — which includes corporate e-mail, calendar, word processing, spreadsheets and presentation software — is aimed squarely at Microsoft’s lucrative Office software franchise.

For Raj, the decision started with cost. Apps is cheap or free, has more liberal usage terms than Office and doesn’t require a tech team to set up and manage.

“But it’s not just that,” he says. “You have no idea how much time it takes to train people. The young people we attract to work here are very familiar with Google. That’s a tremendous savings.”

Microsoft Office is a software behemoth in Corporate America. But as Microsoft tries to absorb Yahoo in a proposed $44.6 billion takeover — the better to make inroads into Internet advertising, which Google now dominates — Google is moving ahead with initiatives to fight its way onto Microsoft turf.

A free version of Google Apps does not include tech support. For $50 a year per employee, a Premier version includes tech phone support and more e-mail storage. Universities get Apps for free. Some large ones have signed on, including Arizona State University and Northwestern University.

Google Apps product manager Matt Glotzbach says the company has picked up 500,000 customers for Apps since it launched in February 2007 and is adding 20,000 new users every day.

Still, that barely registers a dent in Microsoft’s Office armor. The software giant says it has more than 500 million Office users. Some 62 percent of U.S. businesses use Microsoft’s Outlook e-mail software, compared with less than 1 percent for corporate webmail like Google’s, says Tom Austin, an analyst at researcher Gartner.

Free webmail for small companies is fine, says Chris Capossela, a Microsoft senior vice president. As companies grow, they’ll want “far more control over how (their) data is managed,” he says.

Microsoft’s Office Live offers free e-mail like Google’s, plus tools to create a free website. For $19.95 a month, customers also can share online documents.

Traditional big-company Office packages run about $400 per employee. And companies must run a dedicated e-mail server (from $699 to $3,999) from Microsoft or other companies.

As a small employer with less than 50 workers, Raj is content with the free version of Google Apps. “I don’t need tech support with Google. The programs work flawlessly,” he says.

Making inroads at small firms

For now, Google is a more serious threat to Microsoft among smaller companies, says analyst Jim Murphy at AMR Research.

Using Gmail is a big attraction for some small firms. By 2012, business use of Web-based mail will jump to 20 percent, says analyst Austin at Gartner.

“Customers don’t know they’re sending it to a Gmail account,” says Chris Montgomery, whose family runs four Midas Muffler shops near Houston. “They’re sending it to Midas, which makes it more professional.”

Before switching, “We constantly had issues with our e-mail being down,” says Jeremy Stoppelman, CEO of Yelp, a Web site that offers local listings and reviews. “Now, instead of having an IT person maintain the system, we can devote those resources elsewhere.”

Beyond e-mail, Google Apps users rave about online collaboration. Employees can share documents and make changes without relying on multiple copies.

“In a dog hotel, we need to know what each dog is doing, and how they’re behaving,” says Raj. “It’s really important to keep people up-to-date, and Apps works perfectly for that kind of collaboration.”

Still, Web-based programs like Office Live and Google Apps are accessible only on Internet-connected computers. That knocks out reading documents on airplanes, for instance.

“It’s something we’re actively working on solving,” says Google’s Glotzbach.

And some might be wary of having all their data residing at Google, but Raj isn’t fazed. “All information is on the Internet somewhere anyway,” he says.

———

Google Apps sets up e-mail, word processing, spreadsheets

Google offers organizations a low-cost vehicle for e-mail, word processing, calendar, spreadsheet and presentation software through its Google Apps suite. Product manager Matt Glotzbach spoke to USA TODAY’s Jefferson Graham about Apps:

Question: Are you competing with Microsoft?

Answer: Absolutely. It’s fair to say we don’t wake up every morning thinking about how we will beat Microsoft today, but it is a competitor, especially in mail. We view Google Docs as complementary to the Office suite. The important thing is, what motivates us, is how do we make our users lives better. I hear from so many people that they love working with us because they don’t to spend their Fridays cleaning out their e-mail box. We offer 25 gigabytes of storage; they offer around 100 megabytes.

Q: How do I set up my company with Apps?

A: You go to Google.com/a to sign up. We have two editions, a free, ad-supported one with limited tech support, and the Premier edition, which costs $50 yearly. It’s ad-free and has tech support. You fill out the Web form, pay with your credit card, go through the checkout process, await your e-mail confirmation, and start using it.

Q: One criticism we hear about Google Apps is that you have to be online to use it.

A: We absolutely recognize that although connectivity is becoming more ubiquitous, there are still people who travel on planes, or in places where you aren’t connected. It’s something we’re actively working on solving. In the meantime, we released in October a way to read your e-mail offline, by transferring mail to applications like Outlook, Thunderbird or Mac Mail.

Q: With programs such as Outlook, companies are responsible for their backup. What about with Apps?

A: We back up everything, which is a big advantage. Users never have to worry about losing their information. My hard drive crashed the other day, but I was unfazed, because all my information was (online) in the cloud. I didn’t lose anything.

Q: What’s the most-requested feature?

A: Many want to see a task list, or the ability to include videos in their presentations.

Investment firm urges Yahoo to take Microsoft offer

Monday, February 11th, 2008

Ironfire Capital, an activist investment firm which last year helped organize shareholders to oust former Yahoo CEO Terry Semel, on Sunday said it would pressure Yahoo to accept Microsoft’s unsolicited $44 billion takeover offer.

Yahoo’s board is expected to reject that offer Monday, according to reports by the Associated Press and The Wall Street Journal quoting an unnamed source. USA TODAY could not confirm those reports.

Ironfire President Eric Jackson has organized a group of 100 dissident shareholders who collectively own more than 2 million shares and have agreed to vote as a bloc to support the buyout offer.

Jackson is reaching out to other Yahoo shareholders (http://breakoutperformance.blogspot.com), as well. “We’ll tender our shares to the highest bidder,” he says. “We don’t trust Yahoo’s board to negotiate on our behalf.”

Jackson says it would be “ludicrous” to turn down Microsoft and says Yahoo’s outlook has only worsened under CEO Jerry Yang, who replaced Semel in 2007.

“He runs it as if it’s a private company, taking slow, incremental steps,” he says. “He doesn’t realize his approach is what lost the confidence of Wall Street and put Yahoo in play.” Yahoo declined to comment.

Greg Sterling, an analyst with Sterling Market Intelligence, says a Yahoo rejection would be an attempt to get Microsoft to sweeten its offer, a prospect he calls “highly unlikely.”

Microsoft has proposed paying $31 a share, a 62.7 percent premium over Yahoo’s $19.05 closing price when Microsoft made the offer on Feb. 1. Yahoo stock closed Friday at $29.20.

“There is no credible alternative to this offer,” says Sterling. “I don’t see Yahoo retaining its independence unless someone else comes forward, and that hasn’t happened.”

The only way to appease shareholders, says Trip Chowdhry, an analyst with Global Equities Research, is for Yahoo to broker a deal with Google — perhaps letting Google handle searches on Yahoo’s site in exchange for a split of the advertising revenue.

Investors have clamored for such an option as Google’s share of search continues to rise, while Yahoo’s slides.

“Yahoo is in limbo,” says Chowdhry. “If they say no, shareholders will say, ‘What are you doing, turning down a great offer?’ ”

A rejection would leave Microsoft with three options, says Rob Enderle, principal analyst at the Enderle Group in Silicon Valley. It could come back with a sweetened bid of $33 or $34 a share; it could drop its bid; or it could take hostile action and attempt to replace Yahoo’s directors.

“By asking for an inflated price, it forces Microsoft to attempt a hostile takeover, putting at risk the most important asset: the people,” says Roger Kay, president of market researcher Endpoint Technologies Associates.

Microsoft declined to comment.

iPhone’s future intrigues observers

Thursday, January 3rd, 2008

Apple’s heavily promoted iPhone ended 2007 as what one analyst calls the fastest-growing consumer electronics product ever. And research analysts expect sales to top Apple’s projections for 2008.

But don’t look for a new model early this year, analysts say. Apple historically makes new-product announcements at the Macworld conference, scheduled this year for Jan. 14. Many fans are looking to Apple CEO Steve Jobs to introduce a new, possibly smaller iPhone.

Independent analyst Richard Doherty of the Envisioneering Group believes upgrades will be offered for the existing iPhone, including access to a faster Internet network and an improved battery.

Apple declined to comment.

While the iPhone received rave reviews for its style and functionality, critics complained about the speed of Apple partner AT&T’s data network.

The iPhone is a combination iPod, cell phone and portable Internet device.

AT&T has said it would bring faster service to the iPhone in 2008.

Additionally, Apple has said it would open the iPhone to outside software developers in February, which could turn the iPhone into a more versatile device. Doherty expects to see previews at Macworld. “You’ll see Apple working with financial institutions to turn the iPhone into something like an electronic credit card,” he says.

When Jobs announced the iPhone a year ago at Macworld, he predicted Apple would sell 10 million by the end of 2008. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster believes sales will top 12 million, and that the bulk of extra sales will happen at the end of the year, when he believes Apple will drop the price to $299 from $399.

Doherty pegs total iPhone sales at 3 million units. Apple’s official tally, through Sept. 30, is 1.4 million iPhones sold in the United States.

Apple launched the iPhone on June 29. By Sept. 10, it had sold its first million, which Doherty says is the best showing for any consumer electronics product ever.

He says Apple’s market share in cell phones already exceeds that of smart phones that work with Microsoft’s Windows Mobile operating system — just under a million users, he says. But those phones have yet to catch up to phones that work with Palm’s system, like the popular Treo. He says Palm has a base of more than 2 million users of the Treo phone, “but they’ve been at it for over eight years.”