PHOENIX – Social-networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter are being considered for inclusion in a system that would warn people with asthma when particulate pollution in their neighborhoods reaches levels that could trigger an attack.

Researchers and officials from Arizona state agencies, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and from universities met recently to discuss ways of notifying asthmatic children and the elderly about high-pollution advisories.

Preliminary plans call for warnings to go to schools and individuals through telephone networks and e-mail, but for the first time, social networking is also being considered.

“For some time, we’ve looked beyond traditional notification systems,” said Patrick Cunningham, interim director of the state Department of Environmental Quality. “For instance, we now send text messages about a high-pollution day to landscapers who might be using leaf blowers.”

Cunningham said officials could use sites like MySpace and Facebook to reach young people. “What we want is to be effective,” he said.

Under the system, people with asthma could register under their ZIP code with health officials, who would alert them via text or on Facebook, Twitter or other social media when neighborhood sensors detect high levels in their area.

Current pollution alerts, given through traditional media, generally cover all the Phoenix metro area even though high readings might be only in a small area.

The idea of the alert system grew out of a December study conducted at Arizona State University.

ASU engineering Professor Harindra Fernando said the network he hopes to develop in the Phoenix area will “tell you if tomorrow will be a good day or a bad day for asthmatics, and it will issue warnings from ZIP code to ZIP code.”

Fernando said he hopes that modifying an existing network that measures air pollution in Milan, Italy, and issues air-quality alerts specific to areas and developing an alert system can be done in the next two years, with a notification system in place by 2012.

Cunningham said he is going to ask the EPA for $300,000 to $500,000 to fund the project.

Q: Is Astronomy Day designated around some special event in the night sky? What is going on Saturday?

A: There is no special astronomical event but there is one fantastic planet (Saturn) and the moon is visible, along with the Big Dipper and other objects and constellations. Saturn is visible overhead by 7:45 p.m. and its rings are almost edge-on. Astronomy Day occurs sometime between mid-April and mid-May on a Saturday near the first quarter moon. You can celebrate Astronomy Day at Flandrau from 3 to 10 p.m. with the National Sharing the Sky Foundation Star Party. Offerings include free handouts, free safe views of the sun during the day, evening views of the moon and night sky along with a raffle for foundation donors (a Celestron 70mm telescope in addition to many other items). For more information, see the Flandrau Web site, Astronomy section, for a link.

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On the Web

Flandrau Science Center & Planetarium: www.flandrau.org

Erick Young, a University of Arizona astronomer, will take his research to new heights in a Boeing 747SP.

It is a highly modified aircraft equipped with a 2.5-meter (98-inch) diameter infrared telescope.

“We’ll be observing star formation regions in our galaxy, studies of the gas and dust between stars,” Young said. “We’ll be observing external galaxies and planets in our own solar system.”

Young was named mission operations director of NASA’s Stratospheric Observatory For Infrared Astronomy.

SOFIA is set to begin operations by the end of this year or early next year.

SOFIA is expected to be fully functioning by 2014.

Stargazers will gather Saturday at the University of Arizona Mall to search the skies and raise money for youth astronomy education efforts.

The fourth annual Sharing the Sky Foundation star party and fundraiser will feature up to 40 telescopes available for public viewing from 3:30 to 10 p.m., said Liz Kalas, an event coordinator.

Six to eight scopes fitted with special solar filters will allow daytime viewers to safely see flares coming off the sun’s surface, Kalas said.

As it gets darker, lighting on the UA Mall will be darkened to allow better viewing of the night sky, she said.

Saturn viewing will be good Saturday night, with the planet’s rings appearing more flat and head-on than normal, she said.

First-quarter moon viewing also will be good, she said.

Attendees also will be able to see a wide variety of galaxies and nebulas.

The event is free, but donations will be accepted to fund the efforts of Vail-based Sharing the Sky Foundation, Kalas said.

The nonprofit foundation was started four years ago by famed astronomer and comet discoverer David Levy and his wife, Wendee Levy. The foundation runs programs locally and nationally that offer children motivation and inspiration to learn about astronomy, Wendee Levy said.

Saturday’s UA event will feature a “kids corner” area where children – and adults – can participate in hands-on activities that will let them better experience skygazing, Levy said.

The telescopes will be manned by members of the Tucson Amateur Astronomy Association.

“These astronomers are some of the most enthusiastic people I have ever met. They just can’t wait to show off the sky,” Levy said. “These people just love what they do.

“This is the event to test drive a telescope – you’ll see all shapes, sizes and kinds,” she said.

The event is free and open to the public, and donations to the foundation are encouraged, she said.

“But we’re just hoping this will be a great event,” Levy said. “To raise awareness and get people excited, that is our primary goal.”

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IF YOU GO

What: Sharing the Sky Foundation sky party and fundraiser

When: 3:30-10 p.m. Saturday

Where: University of Mall near the Flandrau Science Center, 1601 E. University Blvd.

Cost: free, with tax-deductible donations accepted for the nonprofit foundation.

It will be an early and wet monsoon if a long-range outlook from the federal Climate Prediction Center holds true.

Based on hints in Caribbean and Pacific surface temperatures, the Rocky Mountain snowpack, and Plains states drought and computer models, the agency calls for above average rainfall for southeast Arizona in June, July and August.

University of Arizona monsoon researcher Christopher Castro tentatively agreed.

“Those indicators are pointing to an early and wet monsoon,” Castro said.

Two computer models foresee rapid development of a typical monsoon high pressure zone in May, then a rapid advance northward of the zone, the CPC outlook said.

Each year, this high pressure zone settles over the Four Corners area in northeast Arizona, shifting our prevailing winds from the west to the southeast. This wind shift is the monsoon, and when it happens early we typically get more rain than average.

Of the past 20 monsoons, Tucson got less than average rainfall (6.06 inches) in 13 and more than average in seven, according to the National Weather Service. Last year, the airport, where official tallies are kept, got 5.52 inches, the weather service said.

Tucson typically gets about half of its annual rainfall during the monsoon, June 15-Sept. 30.

Rain is not in this week’s forecast, with temperatures expected to climb into the mid-90s by Friday. Windy, dry conditions prompted a fire danger warning for Tuesday across the southeast quadrant of Arizona.

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By the numbers

6.06 inches, normal monsoon rainfall for Tucson

5.52 inches, last year’s total

13.84 inches, wettest monsoon (1964)

1.59 inches, driest monsoon (1924)

PHOENIX – The question, “Paper or plastic?” is usually reserved for supermarket checkout lines, but a Senate bill could have public records clerks using a similar refrain.

Authored by Sen. Jay Tibshraeny, R-Chandler, SB 1305 would require public bodies that keep public records electronically to provide them upon request on CD-ROM or in another format.

The change would allow more efficient public access to records, said David Bodney, a media attorney with the Phoenix law firm Steptoe and Johnson LLP.

“It’s cheaper, it’s easier, it makes the information more readily searchable,” he said. “If the information superhighway means anything, it ought to mean that public bodies produce their records in electronic format when they’re maintained in electronic format.”

The bill is among several that aim to reconcile access to public records with evolving technology. Other measures would make information documenting changes to electronic documents a public record, allow public officials to redact certain information from e-mails and keep open meeting announcements online longer.

Elizabeth S. Hill, Arizona’s assistant ombudsman for public access, said she suggested the changes in SB 1305 to clear up gray areas in public records law.

Among several provisions, it would make electronic records available for inspection or copying in a format such as a database or spreadsheet if a government body maintains records in that format. However, public officials could change the data to a format that can’t be manipulated, such as a PDF, Hill said.

Under the bill, a government body could charge a reasonable fee for electronic records and could charge more if compiling the data takes longer than two hours.

SB 1305 would require that copying fees for paper records not exceed the cost of reproduction, including equipment, maintenance and personnel time. Tibshraeny also put those provisions into another bill, SB 1304.

In addition, Tibshraeny, who didn’t return three phone calls seeking comment, authored SB 1303, which would require Web announcements for open meetings to stay online for one year. The measure would allow government bodies to post meeting notices on Saturdays, though posting on Sundays still wouldn’t be allowed.

SB 1248, authored by Sen. Jonathan Paton, R-Tucson, would counteract a January appeals court ruling by classifying as public record metadata, or data about other data that’s contained within a file, such as who accessed it and when.

The ruling in Lake v. City of Phoenix denied Phoenix police officer David Lake access to data that he requested to support his claim that the city backdated documents related to his Equal Employment Opportunity Complaint.

Hill said she didn’t understand that ruling.

“The fact of the matter is, electronic records create this metadata,” Hill said. “How do you separate that from the record?”

Paton didn’t return three phone calls seeking comment on the bill.

Still another bill, HB 2328, authored by Rep. Tom Boone, R-Peoria, would permit government officials to redact personal information about senders of e-mails they’ve received.

David Cuillier, University of Arizona journalism professor and chairman of the Society of Professional Journalists’ Freedom of Information Committee, disagreed with the proposed change, saying the public needs to know who influences politicians.

“To have this legislation passed means people will routinely in every organization redact information in e-mails,” he said. “If there’s a need to make someone secret, legitimately secret, there’s a law for that already.”

Boone didn’t return a telephone call seeking comment on the bill.

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Bills dealing with public access

to electronic records

• SB 1248: Would classify as public record metadata, or data about other data that’s contained within a file, such as who accessed it and when. Author: Sen. Jonathan Paton, R-Tucson.

• SB 1303: Would require Web announcements of public meetings to stay online for one year. Includes charter schools in that mandate. Would allow meeting notices to be posted on Saturdays but not Sundays. Author: Sen. Jay Tibshraeny, R-Chandler.

• SB 1304: Would mandate that copying fees for paper records don’t exceed the cost of reproduction, including equipment, maintenance and personnel time. No fee can be charged for reviewing or redacting the records. Author: Sen. Jay Tibshraeny, R-Chandler.

• SB 1305: Includes all of SB 1304 and would allow public records to be obtained in electronic format, if possible. Allows government bodies to charge fees for electronic records, including higher fees if complying with a request takes more than two hours. If a government body can’t provide a record in electronic format, it must give a written explanation as to why. Author: Sen. Jay Tibshraeny, R-Chandler.

• HB 2328: Would allow government officials to redact personal information about the senders of e-mails they’ve received. Author: Rep. Tom Boone, R-Peoria.

A free public lecture May 5 will offer insights on what causes the allergy and asthma symptoms that cause us so much grief.

Dr. Fernando Martinez, interim director of the University of Arizona BIO5 Institute, will give a presentation titled “Genes and Environment at the Onset of Asthma and Allergies” at 5:30 p.m. at DuVal Auditorium, University Medical Center, 1501 N. Campbell Ave.

Martinez, director of the Arizona Respiratory Center, is a leading asthma researcher.

A 5 p.m. reception precedes the lecture.

UA expert: Emissions feed droughts, which lead to more blazes

The Dude Fire, started by a lightning strike near Payson on June 25, 1990, killed six firefighters.

Man-caused fires play a significant role in global climate change, a University of Arizona researcher said Thursday.

“We found that approximately 20 percent of the warming effect of greenhouse gases is coming from deforestation fires set by people,” said Thomas W. Swetnam, UA professor and director of the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research.

“This is more precise than what was previously available,” he said.

That figure includes only deforestation fires, or ones deliberately set to convert forests – often tropical rain forests – into farmlands and pasturelands, he said.

It does not include the wildfires – caused by man or acts of nature – that are seen regularly in the western United States and other areas, Swetnam said.

Large fires have a “feedback effect” that leads to more fires as well as climate change, Swetnam said.

“Warming conditions lead to more droughts, which lead to more fires. The fires release emissions, those go into the atmosphere and increases warming further,” he said. “Fire can actually generate more fire.”

This can include forest fires.

There are increasing numbers of so-called megafires in the western United States, Canada, Siberia and other regions, Swetnam said.

These megafires are at least partially driven by regional and global warming trends, he said.

“In the western United States, we have seen more than a sixfold increase in the total area burned the past two decades compared to the previous two decades,” he said. “Fire season in the western United States has increased by more than two months.”

Deadly fires in Australia are another example of the trend.

“Because of the high levels of industrial pollution that is changing the climate, we are already seeing changes in fire activity on Earth,” said David Bowman of the University of Tasmania in Hobart, Australia.

Bowman is a co-author of the paper that appears Friday in Science.

While the study more accurately reflects fire’s impact on climate change, much work remains, Swetnam said.

“In this paper, we make pains to talk about the difficulties and uncertainties that remain,” he said. “This is still a coarse-scale estimate on how much burning by people is contributing to global warming.

“It could be greater. There is potential for it to be considerably larger.”

The paper, “Fire in the Earth System,” calls for more research on the role fire plays in putting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, Swetnam said.

“If we want to understand climate change in the future, we need to build fire into the models,” Swetnam said.

“Fire is affecting people and people are affecting fire . . . we need to put fire on the center stage of our understanding,” he said.

Smoke plumes from a 2007 southern California wildfire billow out over the Pacific Ocean. University of Arizona research didn't even take into account wildfires when they found fires account for 20 percent of the warming effects of greenhouse gasses. However, fires breed more fires - including wildfires, the team's research shows.

Partnership’s goal: Increase renewable energy use to 50%

The University of Arizona will soon make greater use of Tucson’s abundant sunshine by equipping more campus rooftops with solar panels.

UA’s goal is to increase its renewable energy generation to 50 percent within 10 years, President Robert Shelton said.

UA and APS Energy Services officials announced under sunny skies Wednesday – Earth Day – a partnership that will add 500 kilowatts of photovoltaic solar generation capacity.

In addition, thermal solar devices will heat swimming pool water.

The venture will decrease UA’s dependence on fossil fuels while reducing the school’s carbon footprint, Shelton said.

The project is expected to provide power to UA at about 9.5 cents per kilowatt-hour (normal grid rates), said Bob Georgeoff, APS Energy Services managing director.

APS will design, install, operate and maintain the system; UA will purchase the power generated, Georgeoff said.

This arrangement protects UA, and Arizona taxpayers, from financial liabilities for the project, said Ralph Banks, UA manager of engineering.

Installation of rooftop polycrystalline PV panels and solar thermal collectors is scheduled to begin in May and conclude by year’s end, Georgeoff said.

He declined to disclose the project’s cost.

The project continues the growth of UA’s renewable energy efforts, Shelton said.

“We will continue to add thermal and solar photovoltaic to the campus wherever we can,” he said. “In 10 years we should be able to generate half our energy through renewables.”

UA currently meets 5 percent to 10 percent of its energy needs through renewables, Banks said. The project will offset another 5 percent to 10 percent of UA’s energy needs to renewables, he said.

APS has worked with UA for more than 10 years to reduce energy use and boost the use of renewables.

Efforts have saved 55 million kilowatt-hours per year, Georgeoff said, as well as the carbon produced by 8,800 cars per year.

“UA is one of the most energy efficient campuses in the country,” said Leonard Byrd, project development manager at APS.

The project includes more than PV.

Thermal solar devices will heat pool water at Hillenbrand Aquatic Center and the Student Recreation Center, Banks said.

The solar devices will do away with the need for 50 percent of the natural gas energy used annually by UA to heat the 1.7 million gallons of water in the pools, Banks said.

PV panels installed on the roofs of the Second Street parking garage will help shade parked cars, and aid campus research efforts, he said.

The project is a step forward, but much remains to be done, Banks said.

The peak summer energy demand on campus is 25 to 30 megawatts, and the project adds 500 kilowatts, he said. A megawatt is 1,000 kilowatts.

“It’s still a baby step when you look at the overall demand,” Banks said

While APS will pay for and operate the solar project, Tucson Electric Power Co. will provide financial incentives in exchange for credits to meet Arizona Corporation Commission-mandated standards for renewable energy production, said Joe Salkowski, TEP spokesman.

The ACC requires that 2 percent of power sold by TEP and other Arizona utilities come from renewable sources this year. The requirement ramps up to 15 percent by 2025.

Byrd said TEP will provide 18 cents per metered kilowatt-hour generated by PV panels over 20 years.

TEP’s performance based incentive will pay $200,000 the first year of operation, with the figure falling slightly each year because of decreasing efficiencies in the solar generating system.

TEP’s incentive payments help APS provide UA power at a lower cost, Byrd said.

TEP’s customers benefit because the project uses the sun’s energy to offset power TEP would have had to generate using fossil fuels, Salkowski said.

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GLOSSARY

Watt, kilowatt and megawatt are measures of electrical power:

• A kilowatt is 1,000 watts.

• A megawatt is 1,000 kilowatts or 1 million watts.

• A kilowatt equals about 1.34 horsepower.

• A kilowatt-hour is the amount of energy expended if work is done at a rate of one kilowatt for one hour.

Stargazers are invited to attend a star party and fundraiser hosted by astronomer and author David Levy next month.

Levy’s nonprofit organization, the Sharing the Sky Foundation, is dedicated to getting young people interested in the night sky and will be accepting donations during the party, which will run from 3:30 to 10 p.m. May 2. The party will be on the Mall at the University of Arizona next to the Flandrau Science Center, 1601 E. University Blvd.

Telescopes with special filters will be set up to view the sun during the daylight hours. The moon and Saturn, along with distant stars and far-off galaxies, will be viewed after dark.

Admission is free but donations are encouraged. For more information, go to www.sharingthesky.org.

Brian Myer (left), a doctoral student in optics at the University of Arizona, talks about ways to store solar energy with Nate Allen (middle right) of Biosphere 2 and John Madocks at Global Solar Energy, 8500 S. Rita Road.

Five new projects granted $4 million in seed money could help make Arizona a center for solar development, backers said Friday.

Science Foundation Arizona announced the projects, and the formation of its new Solar Technology Institute, at lunch events in Tucson and Phoenix.

The Tucson event, attended by about 100 industry, government and university officials, was held just outside a 310,000- square-foot solar array that provides power at Global Solar Energy, 8500 S. Rita Road.

“The goal is developing disruptive technology breakthroughs that will bring the cost of solar energy down to the level of fossil fuels,” said Richard C. Powell, co-director of Solar Technology Institute. “We want to make Arizona a leader in the drive to change to solar.”

“Germany, Spain and even New Jersey lead Arizona in the development of solar energy,” said Paul Newman, a member of the Arizona Corporation Commission, which regulates utilities. “We’ve got to change that.”

The $4 million will provide startup funding for the projects, Powell said.

Half of the funding comes from Science Foundation Arizona and half from the private sector.

The funding is in hand and not affected by state budget cuts for the organization, Powell said.

The projects cover the full solar spectrum, from collecting the sun’s energy to distributing electricity to consumers, said Leslie Tolbert, vice president for research, graduate studies and economic development at the University of Arizona.

“The goal here is not just to meet our energy needs but to become a net exporter,” Tolbert said.

The projects are collaborations that include UA, Arizona State University and a variety of industry partners, she said.

Solar panels don’t work at night, and energy storage is a challenge that one funded project is addressing, Powell said.

Plans call for generating excess solar power during the day that will be used to compress air that will be stored, he said.

When darkness curtails energy production, the stored compressed air can be used to drive turbines to generate electricity, he said.

Another project is using nanotechnology to improve the efficiency of thin-film solar devices while driving the price down, said Ray Kostuk, UA professor of electrical and computer engineering.

Ultra-thin coatings will cause sunlight to spend more time exciting the elements in thin-film devices so they produce more electricity, Kostuk said.

Other projects are:

• Concentrator photovoltaics to develop the next generation of low-cost solar reflectors that concentrate the sun’s energy on high-efficiency photovoltaic cells.

• Quickly testing and certifying solar products to determine the performance of new and improved technologies.

• An improved system of “smart” electric grid management and command and control software to help select future power generation sites, storage sites and distribution and transmission pathways throughout the state.

Science Foundation Arizona is a nonprofit public-private partnership that invests areas of strategic importance to the state, including renewable energy and biomedicine.

The outlook for Arizona biotech industry jobs may be brighter than anticipated, 175 University of Arizona students learned at a BIO5 Institute event Tuesday.

W.L. Gore & Associates Inc.’s medical products division plans to hire about 1,500 employees in Phoenix and Flagstaff, said Cody Bliss, product specialist.

Bliss made the trek down from Flagstaff to meet and greet UA students studying biotech, engineering, information technology and other disciplines.While Tuesday’s event was not a formal job fair, many job résumés were dropped off with six participating biotech companies from around the state.

About 25 percent of employees at BioVigilant Systems Inc., a Tucson-based instantaneous microbial detection firm, were affiliated with UA, said Scott Morris, manager of special projects. The firm will consider UA students when filling current openings, Morris said.

But the economic slowdown and other factors mean other area bio firms are not currently hiring.

“In the past we’ve hired quite a few people out of UA,” said Kenneth F. Wertman, scientific director at Sanofi-Aventis Combinatorial Technologies Center in Tucson. “I wish I had hired a number of people I met here today but we’re waiting for the economy to turn around.”

Hilary Taylor, a UA senior in molecular and cellular biology, said she began sending out résumés in December and looked at the event to broaden her contact base for employment.

The event was held to introduce biotech firms to UA students, and vice versa, said Kevin Hall, director of research, training and career development at BIO5.

A Scottsdale-based investment fund is looking for mid-size renewable-energy projects in need of a loan, and is hoping to capitalize on incentives that utilities and the federal stimulus are pouring into such projects.

The Ethos Fund is targeting all types of renewable-energy projects in the Western states, including solar, wind, landfill-gas recovery and everything else eligible for big rebates.

Executives said such a fund is needed because while lots of public money is available for energy projects, few are being built because none of the incentives help developers with up-front costs, and the credit crunch has cut off most other funding.

“If you’ve tried to get a mortgage lately, you can imagine what it would be like for a renewable-energy developer (to get a loan),” said Adam Boucher, president of the fund planned at $150 million.

The Ethos Fund is looking to make short-term loans of six to 12 months to provide the up-front financing, with the energy projects and incentives serving as collateral.

Ethos is targeting projects that need between $250,000 and $5 million in start-up financing, or have an electrical-generating capacity between 100 and 200 kilowatts.

Most household solar systems or backyard wind turbines can produce less than 10 kilowatts, while solar and wind power plants produce several thousand kilowatts.

Boucher said mid-size projects are uncommon because there are few ways to finance them, a niche he wants to fill.

While federal and utility rebates can cover more than half the cost of renewable-energy projects, those incentives only are available once the projects are built.

“They will only be paying interest for a short period of time,” Boucher said.

Boucher has been putting the fund together for two years, but with the changes in the federal-stimulus package passed in February for renewable energy, Boucher expects to find many more eligible borrowers.

Many renewable projects are eligible for a 30 percent tax credit, but the stimulus allows projects to get that tax credit as a single payment in the form of a grant, so developers don’t have to wait until tax season to get their money back.

Boucher, who has been doing private lending since 2003 when he moved to Scottsdale from the San Francisco Bay Area, said he sees the most potential in alternative energy.

“I compare it to the race to the moon,” Boucher said of the nationwide alternative-energy push.

Small banks aren’t experts in renewable-energy rebates and credits, which gives Ethos an advantage, he said.

The fund intends to charge interest rates between 10 to 15 percent, and pay investors returns of 12.7 to 14.1 percent, according to the fund’s executive summary. Ethos is asking a minimum investment of $100,000.

But the fund needs to find borrowers, and has yet to make a loan.

The fund principals are renewable-energy supporters, including senior underwriter Larry Farris, who makes biodiesel fuel in his garage, Boucher said.

“Our underlying business model gives us a significant comfort level with these projects,” he said.

At least one executive who develops alternative-energy systems like those that Ethos is targeting said such financing is needed.

John Ellers is CEO of Solid USA, which sells large hot-water and air-cooling systems powered by the sun. Solid is based in Austria and is selling systems in the United States.

Even before the current credit crunch, large banks only wanted to lend to larger solar projects in the range of $20 million or more, he said, leaving the mid-size projects struggling to find loans.

“It certainly is something that is needed today given the dearth of traditional construction financing that is available,” Ellers said.

In some cases, Ellers has turned to Austrian banks to finance U.S. projects because American banks are unfamiliar with the technology, he said.

“The major banks in Austria look at these projects and are comfortable with the technology being used . . . so they can do the underwriting much more easily and cost-effectively and at a lower risk than other lenders,” he said.

“I’m hopeful that in the near term our traditional lending sources for construction financing will get back into this market.”

Even lesser periods of dryness will do more damage

University of Arizona researcher Henry Adams prepares a mature piñon from New Mexico for transplanting inside Biosphere 2, shown in the background.

A slight increase in temperature could see drought-stricken trees die five times faster than they do now, a University of Arizona researcher says.

Scientists were able for the first time to isolate the impact of increased heat on mature piñon mortality by using the controlled environment in UA’s Biosphere 2, said Henry Adams, lead author of a paper that will appear this week in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Drought killed at a faster rate piñon trees kept in an environment warmer than normal ambient temperature by 4 degrees centigrade – about 7 degrees Fahrenheit.

“The cooler trees lasted 28 percent longer,” said Adams, a doctoral student in ecology and evolutionary biology at UA. “All the warmer trees died before any of the cooler trees.”

Trees subjected to hotter drought conditions died in 18 weeks compared with 25 weeks for trees living in cooler drought conditions, he said.

A control group of trees watered normally survived at both temperatures, he said.

The effects of higher temperatures mean that lesser droughts, which occur with greater frequency than major droughts, will be deadly if temperatures increase, he said.

When researchers extrapolated the results using the region’s 100-year historical drought record, it showed that widespread piñon die-offs will occur five times faster than now based on anticipated temperature increases, Adams said.

Scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have projected temperature increases of 3 to 5 degrees centigrade by 2100, he said.

Historical records from severe Southwestern droughts in the 1950s and earlier this decade showed that tree mortality was higher in a lesser drought with higher temperatures, said David Breshears, a UA professor of natural resources and the study co-investigator.

But researchers could not accurately say what impact higher temperatures had on tree mortality until this latest study led by Adams, Breshears said.

“What we’ve done is isolate the effect of temperature alone, and shown that this species is very sensitive to temperature,” Breshears said. “It is warmer in the future by 4 degrees centigrade you won’t need as long a drought to kill the trees.”

The study could show piñons are akin to canaries in coal mines, warning of deadly threats to a variety of species of trees and vegetation, Breshears said.

“I think it’s going to raise concerns of how big and vast the changes from increased temperature and drought are going to be,” he said. “In the Southwest, we’re going to have more drought and more frequent drought.”

Piñons try to protect themselves from drought by waiting it out, Adams said.

“They simply close their pores to not let water out so they are not losing water,” Adams said. “But they aren’t able to take in carbon dioxide from the atmosphere needed to photosynthesize.

“If the drought goes on long enough, they run out of stored energy from photosynthesis and die,” he said. “At higher temperatures, they run out of stored energy faster and die sooner.”

The trees used in the two-year study came from near Las Vegas, N.M., Adams said. They were about 6 feet tall and 20 to 30 years old, he said.

The next step in research has begun near Flagstaff, Adams said.

“We’ll try to re-create what we did inside outside,” he said. “We’ll get accurate mortality rates in field conditions.”

The pines have been transplanted on the north side of the San Francisco Peaks to get a look at how heat affects drought-stricken trees in a more natural environment.

Trees have been planted at two levels – one 400 meters higher in elevation – to give a temperature difference of 4 degrees centigrade, he said.

The ground surrounding test trees will be covered with tarps to ensure drought conditions, he said.

Plans are in the works, said Adams, to study the heat effect on drought mortality on different species of trees inside Biosphere 2 near Oracle.

University of Arizona researcher Henry Adams explains his tree experiment to visitors at the Biosphere 2 glass-enclosed laboratory. The controlled environment allowed the testing of trees' mortality rates at varied temperatures.

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Tours, et cetera

• Biosphere offers tours throughout the day. The admission desk will provide tour times and start locations, according to Biosphere 2′s Web site.

• Admission: $20 general, $18 for seniors, military members, students and AAA members, $13 for children 6 to 12; free for children under 6.

• Half of the fee supports research and is tax deductible.

• Web site: www.b2science.org

Q. Since Venus is just coming up in the dawn twilight, I’m curious to know when a planet such as Venus becomes our ‘morning star’ and then the evening star?

A. There are no seasons or months in which planets regularly appear in our sky. The visibility of planets depends on what side of the sun they are on in comparison to Earth. Apart from a visit to Flandrau’s planetarium I recommend using a planetarium program on a computer (use a solar system and a local horizon type view). Programs available for personal computer use include: StarryNight Enthusiast (Mac or PC, go to www.starrynight.com), and Voyager 4 or Voyager 3 (Mac or PC, go to www.carinasoft.com). If you don’t want to spend any money, there is also ‘Celestia,’ a free planetarium program. It is available at www.shatters.net/celestia (older versions available at their FAQ site).