Spoils from the Citizen's final edition sit in a recycling cart in the press room.

This is it. After 138 years, seven months and one day, this may be the last Tucson Citizen to be published.¶ At press time, our ultimate deadline, this was our last gasp – our final edition.¶ Efforts still

are underway to keep the Citizen alive. We’ll let you know if they succeed.

I think I speak for us all and those who came before us – when I say it has been an honor to be a part of the community, invited daily into your homes and given the opportunity to tell the news of Tucson.

It was a sad moment to learn the Citizen was worth more to its parent, Gannett Co. Inc., dead than alive.

Ouch.

Monetarily, I suppose that’s so. It costs more to produce, print and distribute this paper than we are contributing in revenue.

However, the Citizen does have worth that is being erased.

There’s the loss of the stories we covered that other news media did not. Also our very existence made our competitors work harder – and be better.

Newspapers don’t just close, they die.

And death is personal.

It is touching how many readers wrote about their attachment to the paper. More than one questioned, “What will I do without my Tucson Citizen?” Whether it was not knowing who Brenda Starr will date next, to the loss of Cal Thomas, to thanking our local columnists for making them think, to appreciating the reporters who dig for stories about our readers, their neighbors and their elected and unelected officials.

Many expressed profound worry about the staff and what we will do – a worry that is warranted.

The industry lost 12,000 jobs last year and this year is looking worse. We are the third major daily paper to shut down this year.

About 65 talented Citizen staffers are being shot into an economy that is losing rather than creating jobs. The newspaper industry is so distressed that few of us will be reporters, newspaper designers, editors or news photographers again.

It is a tragic loss of talent and enthusiasm.

Some people have expressed unalloyed glee that we are closing. Many of our critics didn’t want us to pursue one of our greatest responsibilities. Editors have repeated the mantra over the 138 years: Make sure you get the other side.

A newspaper will never be perfect – we are a work in progress all day every day. The paper is just the culmination of what we have done at a certain point in time.

Journalism is history written in a hurry. We were created to reflect the news of the day.

Consequently, every paper has errors – a factual error, flawed grammar, a name spelled incorrectly, a wrong phone number. We try, and I think succeed, in minimizing these mistakes. But in the rush of putting out what is essentially a book every day (for 50 cents, not $24.99) they happen.

We correct them and move on to the next book.

Our hard work exists for a day. The previous day’s work becomes cage liner and fish wrap and packing paper.

But the Internet has changed our business.

Stories exist in the ether, to be read days, months, years after they are published.

The Internet opened up a whole new world and a whole new set of readers – far beyond the boundaries of Pima County. Interactivity was quick and conversations about stories flourished online. Sometimes it was ugly.

We and our advertisers didn’t really know how to deal with the medium. Some day someone will figure it out, creating another revolution within the industry.

I’ve had fun. I’ve made mistakes – which were very public. I have done stories and tasks I didn’t want to do – closing the paper I’ve loved is one. I’ve talked with many people and let the world know their tales. I’ve had bosses who helped me along the way – harshly and gently. And I’ve met and worked with many terrific, weird and talented people.

I will never regret being part of this institution, being a part of the news we reported and working with the people here.

The Citizen helped shape Tucson’s past and future.

We’ve dedicated this edition – our final one – to us and those who have worked here before us by celebrating our work.

It’s been a great run. So long and thanks for the memories.

Az doc-to-patient ratio below national average

Medical student Nathaniel Rial checks on patient Rachel Trefry at the UA College of Medicine on Tuesday morning. Rial will graduate Friday.

It’s a choice fewer young doctors make.

When they recite the Hippocratic Oath on Friday, University of Arizona College of Medicine graduates Erica Lindsey and Nathaniel Rial will pursue residencies as primary care physicians. Generalists in an industry dominated by specialists, primary care doctors make hundreds of thousands of dollars less than cardiologists or neurosurgeons and work less-than-predictable hours.

Rial will remain in Tucson, beginning a three-year residency in internal medicine that will have him seeing patients at University Medical Center, Tucson Medical Center and the Southern Arizona VA Health Care System.

He spent his last week as a medical student studying for exams and working in a lab at the Arizona Cancer Center.

This summer, Lindsey will begin a three-year residency in primary care at St. Joseph’s Hospital and Medical Center in Phoenix. She spent much of the past two weeks moving into a new place.

The pair will gut out long hours, which, in the end, probably will reduce their salaries to “a little more than minimum wage,” Lindsey joked.

In recent interviews, both of the doctors-to-be said they entered primary care to fill a need.

Nearly half of the 124 students who will graduate from the UA medical school on Friday will remain in Arizona for at least the next three years, as they complete residencies at hospitals throughout the state. More than a third of the class of 2009 will go into primary care.

These are not insignificant numbers given the state’s overall shortage of doctors.

Arizona has 214 physicians per 100,000 patients, a ratio well below the national average of 250 doctors per 100,000 patients. A 2007 study by the Association of American Medical Colleges ranked Arizona 33rd out of 50 states based on that doctor-to-patient ratio.

The state’s ranking drops to 39th when the focus shifts to primary care.

In 2007, the latest data available, Arizona had 4,719 primary care physicians, a ratio of about 77 per 100,000 patients. Nationwide, the number of primary care physicians per 100,000 patients stood at 88 in 2007.

“We have more of a shortage than is found nationally,” said T. Philip Malan Jr., vice dean for academic affairs at the UA medical college. “I like it when our students go into primary care.”

As an area of practice, primary care requires physicians to do a little of everything – pediatrics, family and internal medicine, general surgery and obstetrics and gynecology.

No one can predict how many of the 43 UA medical school graduates will remain in primary care after completing their residencies.

A 2008 report by the Council on Medical Education found that 55 percent of the nation’s internal medicine residents in 2006 chose to enter a subspecialty the following year. Nearly 40 percent of pediatric residents chose to specialize as well.

A residency in primary care or internal medicine constitutes a “gateway” to specialty practices, Rial said.

He has yet to decide whether he will remain in primary care after completing his residency. Because the tuition at UA – around $18,000 a year – remains cheaper than at two-thirds of the nation’s medical schools, Rial said he has the “flexibility” to weigh his options.

“I think another way to look at why so few are going into (primary care), so many are following other pathways, is for lifestyle or quality-of-life issues,” Rial suggested.

The Council on Medical Education report found that nearly three-quarters of medical school graduates “reported that lifestyle had a strong influence on their choice” of specialty.

Mounting debt also factors heavily in medical students’ after-graduation decisions, according to the study. The average U.S. medical student had about $127,000 in debt in 2007, up 43 percent from 2000.

“You have a house in your brain by the time you’re done,” Lindsey said of the cost to complete four years of medical school.

The debt graduates must repay likely forces many of them into more lucrative specialties, she said..

“We don’t compensate (primary care doctors) well,” said Steve Nash, executive director of the Pima County Medical Society.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, a family or general practitioner in Tucson can earn an average of $148,030 annually. Doctors in other specialties earn on average $52,000 more per year.

“One can live pretty well as a doctor in any specialty,” Malan said. “A student has to have a passion for primary care.”

The 43 UA graduates headed into primary care this year represent 35 percent of the graduating class.

“That’s about average for us,” Malan said.

It’s about twice the average in Pima County.

Of the 2,800 or so physicians practicing in PIma County, about 500 – 18 percent of them – focus on primary care, according to Nash. That’s about 50 primary care doctors per 100,000 patients, or 38 below the national average.

In rural or impoverished areas, like the Navajo reservation where Lindsey grew up, the average can be much worse.

“There’s a big need for primary care doctors,” Lindsey said. “It’s kind of always been the focus for me.”

Because Rial and Lindsey will remain in Arizona for their residencies, they are more likely to stay in the state afterward.

Arizona ranks 12th in the nation based on the number of its doctors who studied and completed residencies in the state, according to the Association of American Medical Colleges.

The UA medical school hopes to incrementally increase the number of doctors it trains annually, Malan said, by increasing its enrollment to 115 students per year, up from 110. “It’s all about training more physicians,” he said.

It’s long been a rule of thumb in medical circles that a doctor stays where he or she trains.

Lindsey said there’s a simple reason for that: life.

“You’re almost 30, you have a family or are thinking about starting one,” she said. “You’ve got relationships with the doctors you’ve worked with.”

Rial and his wife moved to Tucson 12 years ago.

“We’ll be here at least three more years,” he said.

Source: Association of American Medical College’s “2007 State Physician Workforce Data Book”

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BY THE NUMBERS

The University of Arizona College of Medicine will confer doctor of medicine degrees during a ceremony on Friday. The 2009 class includes:

• 124 graduates

• 66 women

• 58 men

• 17 Hispanics

• 2 Native Americans

• 61 who will remain in Arizona for their residencies

• 43 who will go into primary care

Source: University of Arizona College of Medicine

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Arizona Doctor Shortage

The University of Arizona produces about 100 medical school graduates per year, according to the Association of American Medical Colleges. Nationwide, about 16,000 graduate from medical school every year, not nearly enough to keep pace with the country’s growing population, most observers say. Compared to national averages, the shortage of doctors in Arizona is more pronounced.

Active physicians per 100,000 patients

U.S.: 250

Arizona: 214

Arizona’s national rank: 33

Active primary care physicians per 100,000 patients

U.S. 88

Arizona: 77

Arizona’s rank: 39

Percent of active physicians in each state who completed undergraduate medical education in the state

U.S. average: 29 percent

Arizona: 10 percent

Arizona’s rank: 41

Percent of active physicians in each state who completed a residency or fellowship in the state

U.S. average: 45 percent

Arizona: 25

Arizona’s rank: 38

Percent of active physicians who graduated medical school and practice in the same state

U.S. average: 39 percent

Arizona: 47 percent

Arizona’s rank: 14

Percent of active physicians who completed graduate medical education and practice in the same state

U.S. average: 47 percent

Arizona: 47 percent

Arizona’s rank: 18

Percent of active physicians who graduated from medical school, completed graduate medical education and practice in the same state

U.S. average: 66 percent

Arizona: 73 percent

Arizona’s rank: 12

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Convocations and graduation

The University of Arizona’s colleges and schools began holding convocation ceremonies Wednesday. The College of Medicine convocation for candidates for a degree in medicine, will be at 5 p.m. Friday at Centennial Hall.

The campuswide commencement ceremony is 8 a.m. Saturday at McKale Center.

The following are the remaining school and college ceremonies scheduled for this weekend.

Friday:

Eller College of Management, undergraduates, 1 p.m. at McKale Center

College of Nursing, 1 p.m. at Centennial Hall

College of Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2 p.m. at Tucson Convention Center arena

University College, 3 p.m. at Integrated Learning Center

College of Optical Sciences, 5 p.m. at Integrated Learning Center 130

Saturday:

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, 11 a.m. at Centennial Hall

College of Architecture and Landscape Architecture, 11 a.m. at Crowder Hall

College of Medicine, physiology undergraduates, 11 a.m. at Student Union Memorial Center

College of Law, 2 p.m. at Centennial Hall

Eller College of Management, graduate students, 5 p.m. at Centennial Hall

For more information on each college convocation, visit commencement.arizona.edu/collegeconvocations

U.S. Customs and Border Patrol agents stop traffic recently in a search of weapons headed into Mexico at the Mariposa border crossing in Nogales.

NOGALES – Federal agents tap on car windows, opening trunks, looking in vain for contraband.

“We’re sucking up a lot of exhaust out here,” supervisory Customs and Border Protection officer Edith Serrano says, shrugging in her uniform.

This is what the Obama administration’s new commitment to help Mexico fight its drug cartels looks like.

President Obama this spring promised his Mexican counterpart, Felipe Calderón, that the United States would fight two of the biggest contributions U.S. residents make to the drug cartels Calderón has vowed to eradicate: cash and weapons, the latter hard to come by in Mexico.

For the past five weeks, hundreds of agents participating in a newly intensified $95 million outbound inspection program have been stepping into southbound traffic lanes, stopping suspicious-looking cars and trucks.

The Associated Press fanned out to the busiest crossings along the Mexican border – San Diego, Nogales, El Paso and Laredo – to see how effective the inspections are.

The findings? Wads of U.S. currency headed for Mexico, wedged into car doors, stuffed under mattresses, taped onto torsos, were sniffed out by dogs, seized by agents and locked away for possible investigations. No guns were found as the reporters watched; they rarely are.

“I do not believe we can even make a dent in (southbound smuggling) because that assumes the cartels are complete idiots, which they’re not. Why in the world would they try to smuggle weapons and currency through a checkpoint when there are so many other options?” said Border Patrol Agent T.J. Bonner, president of the agents’ union.

According to CBP, between March 12 and April 30 officers seized:

• Fifty-one pieces of ammunition, weapons parts and guns, a minuscule fraction of the 2,000 weapons the Mexican government estimates are smuggled south every day.

• $12 million in cash, less than one-tenth of 1 percent of the $17 billion to $39 billion the U.S. Justice Department estimates is illegally sent to Mexico from the U.S. annually, but more than the $10 million seized in outbound checks in 2008.

• Sixty-one people on charges involving weapons or currency offenses and on outstanding warrants.

Millions of cars pass into Mexico from the United States every year. The federal government doesn’t keep track but a count by Texas A&M International University’s Texas Center for Border Economic and Enterprise Development shows more than 27 million vehicles a year drove into Mexico just from Texas.

The outbound checkpoints the AP observed stopped sometimes 1 out of 4 cars, sometimes 1 out of 100, and not every day. Even that amount created huge traffic backups at some locations and, agents said, might have allowed spies to call any smugglers heading that way and warn them to put off their Mexico trip.

Agents across the border said the first few minutes of their operation are the most precious. That’s how long it takes for “scouts” watching from a bridge in San Diego lined with taxis to radio ahead to smugglers to stay away. In Nogales, a dozen men dashed along a Mexican hill about 150 yards from the checkpoint last week.

“We tend to see spotters up there,” said CBP agent Brian Levin. “They sit up on those hills and watch everything we do.”

Inspectors retreat, then mount another “surge” after a while standing on the side of the freeway.

Some of those stopped were sanguine, others annoyed.

“I guess they think I have drugs or something,” said Daniel Saucedo, a 15-year-old Albuquerque high school student who clambered out of the passenger side of a small white pickup truck with his two dogs last week in El Paso. “It’s dumb,” he said.

William Molaski, port director in El Paso, said agents at his four El Paso bridges haven’t found much since the focus on outbound checks started in early April – one handgun and only about $400,000 – “but not for lack of trying.”

Without providing any numbers, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano told attendees at the Border Trade Alliance International Conference on April 21 that, just a few weeks into the intensified outbound inspections, she was amazed at how much had already been seized. “It’s unbelievable,” she said. “So the notion that there wasn’t a river of cash and a flood of guns going into Mexico is a myth. I mean, there was. We want to stop that river.”

CBP’s 2010 budget request, released May 7, includes an additional $46 million specifically targeted at southbound enforcement.

Customs inspectors’ techniques range from primitive to high-tech, with about an equal success rate. Sometimes a small white truck drives slowly alongside vehicles that have been pulled over, beaming X-rays at them to reveal hidden cash or weapons. A smaller X-ray unit scans spare tires or pieces of luggage, a hand-held density meter called a “Buster” can reveal hidden compartments loaded with cash, a fiber-optic scope snaked into gas tanks looks for hidden cargo and trained dogs can sniff out cash or weapons.

But before they get to any of the gadgets, officers knock with a knuckle or flat palm on a car’s body panels. And they ask, again and again: “Do you have any weapons? Cash? Merchandise?”

Often the dogs make the finds.

Grill, a “currency canine,” smelled something on 63-year-old Isabel Ortega Garcia on April 3 in Hidalgo, Texas, when Ortega was walking into Mexico. When Grill got excited, agents patted Ortega down and found $148,000 in neat wads of $100 bills taped around her waist.

Two weeks earlier in Laredo, Akim sniffed cash under the floor of a southbound bus. Under the seats, in a hidden compartment, were 75 bundles of bills totaling $2,997,510.

But even finding that much cash doesn’t always yield an arrest. Without a U.S. attorney’s say-so, the best an agent can do is seize any cash amounts over $10,000 that the traveler does not declare, hand them a receipt and send them on south.

The best case scenario for agents who seize undeclared currency is that federal prosecutors decide to bring charges and begin a forfeiture procedure. But often it is a race against the clock as inspectors on the scene try to collect enough evidence to make it an attractive case for prosecutors.

Obama said while campaigning that he favored a ban on sales of assault weapons. But Congress isn’t budging on the issue, and guns in the U.S., particularly in southern border states, remain easy to buy legally.

“The real issues of assault weapons and bulk cash do not initiate at the border and cannot be solved there,” said David Shirk, director of the University of San Diego’s Trans-Border Institute. “But gun control? That’s a discussion the current administration is reluctant to wade into.”

Mexican customs inspector Ricardo Briseno, 27, says the increase in U.S. inspections of Mexico-bound cars has made his job easier, even though the only effective solution would be to stop every car.

“At least it’s something,” he said. “We are working together on a shared problem.”

Ginger, long used as a folk remedy for soothing tummyaches, helped tame one of the most dreaded side effects of cancer treatment – nausea from chemotherapy, the first large study to test the herb for this has found.

People who started taking ginger capsules several days before a chemo infusion had fewer and less severe bouts of nausea afterward than others who were given dummy capsules, the federally funded study found.

“We were slightly beside ourselves” to see how much it helped, said study leader Julie Ryan of the University of Rochester in New York.

Results were released Thursday by the American Society of Clinical Oncology and will be presented at the group’s annual meeting later this month.

But don’t reach for the ginger ale. Many sodas and cookies contain only flavoring – not real ginger, Ryan said. Her study tested a druglike ginger root extract, and it’s not known if people could get the same benefits from ginger teas or the powdered ginger sold as a spice.

The study involved 644 patients from cancer centers around the nation who had suffered nausea in a previous round of chemotherapy. Two-thirds had breast cancer and the rest, other forms of the disease. They were placed in four groups and given one of three doses of ginger (the equivalent of one-half, 1 or 1 1/2 grams of ginger per day) or dummy capsules in addition to standard anti-sickness medicines.

Patients took the capsules for six days, beginning three days before chemo treatment. They rated their nausea symptoms on a seven-point scale.

PHOENIX — School-choice backers are proposing new state income tax credits to replace private school voucher programs that a court ruled were unconstitutional. And they want Gov. Jan Brewer to call lawmakers into special session to get that done in time for the next school year.

Chandler Republican Rep. Steve Yarbrough says the proposed legislation would create new individual and corporate tax credits for donations for tuition grants for disabled and foster children attending private schools.

Yarbrough says the proposal is a reaction to a March Arizona Supreme Court ruling that overturned voucher programs for disabled and foster children. The court previously upheld an existing state individual income tax credit.

A Brewer spokesman did not immediately return a call for comment.

19th-century Fort Lowell cavalry men to get military honors

The site of the excavation near Stone and Toole

The remains of 61 U.S. Cavalry soldiers and some of their dependents exhumed from the downtown site of the future County-City Joint Courts Complex will begin their final journey Friday morning.

They will be re-interred at the Southern Arizona Veterans’ Memorial Cemetery in Sierra Vista on Saturday.

The remains will be escorted from All Faiths Cemeteries, 2151 S. Avenida Los Reyes, by scores of motorcyclists from the Veterans of Foreign Wars Patriot Riders. They will be reburied with full military honors at the new historical cemetery near Fort Huachuca.

The remains were among more than 1,800 exhumed and stored as part of an archaeological dig at the site of the courts complex, near the southeast corner of Stone and Toole avenues. The site was territorial Tucson’s first cemetery.

The soldiers were stationed at Fort Lowell from the 1860s to 1880s.

Bishop Gerald F. Kicanas of the Catholic Diocese of Tucson will conduct a brief service at 10 a.m.

Before the caskets are loaded into two five-ton military transport vehicles for the trip to Sierra Vista, they will be covered in American flags of their service period.

“We will drape their caskets with 34-star flags from that time period,” Joe Larson of the Arizona Department of Veterans’ Services said Wednesday.

“They will be simultaneously covered (with) the flags” by honor guards from all four major branches of the U.S. military, Larson said.

The soldiers’ remains also will receive an air escort from Tucson to Sierra Vista.

Many soldiers of the period sent to the wars against Indians in the Southwest were immigrants to this country and were compelled to enlist for want of other work.

Diseases such as malaria and dysentery claimed many, unaccustomed as they were to the harsh Sonoran Desert climate, Arizona Department of Veterans’ Services records show.

The great majority of the remains exhumed were of civilians in an adjacent burial area, said Roger Anyon, project manager for the Pima County Cultural Resources and Historical Preservation Office, which supervised the archaeological work at the site.

The remains of the deceased civilians, some of whom have descendants living here, will be reburied in local cemeteries over the next several months, he said.

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More on courthouse, burial

www.geocities.com/savmcf

www.azdvs.gov

www.pima.gov/JointCourts

Softball is 1st-class sport, but NCAA treatment is not

UA senior first baseman Sam Banister practices at Hillenbrand Stadium. She was named to the All-Pac-10 second team on Wednesday. Stacie Chambers, Brittany Lastrapes and Jenae Leles received first-team honors. Story, 1C

When coach Mike Candrea began taking Arizona to the Women’s College World Series 21 years ago, the event was held in an out-of-the-way place in northern California.

Not San Francisco. Not even San Jose. Nearby Sunnyvale.

The venue for the event? If you’ve ever been to the Sports Park on the Northwest Side, you have the right image in your head.

“A four-field setup. Very basic,” Candrea remembered.

The infields in Sunnyvale had such a crown – designed to promote rain runoff into foul territory – that Candrea, standing in the third-base coaching box, had a hard time seeing plays at first base over the rise of the field.

“You couldn’t see the feet of the first baseman,” he said.

Let’s just say that two decades ago, college softball was just a half step up from the summer youth leagues.

Not exactly first class.

Since then – and Tucson can certainly attest to this – college softball has become one of the most visible women’s sports in the NCAA.

If the Wildcats navigate through the 2009 postseason – which begins at 1 p.m. Tucson time Friday in Louisville – they will end up in a world-class facility in Oklahoma City, in a game on ESPN, probably playing a team from the SEC.

That right there – the venue, the blanket coverage from the worldwide leader in sports and the rise of a powerful conference – are three reasons why softball has gone relatively mainstream in recent years.

Which makes it so frustrating when the NCAA continues to nickel and dime the sport.

“That will always be the case for this sport, no matter what,” Candrea said.

The local sports outrage of the moment is Arizona being sent to Louisville for a four-team regional. Nobody would appreciate having postseason home games more than Arizona fans.

The Wildcats have led the nation in attendance nine of the past 16 seasons. The school averaged a school-record average of 2,458 fans this year.

But the NCAA has 64 spots to fill in the softball postseason, including automatic qualifying spots to smaller Eastern conferences, whose teams have as much shot of winning the World Series as Harvard does the BCS football championship.

The NCAA is a slave to geography in arranging the regional sites, preferring to send one Western team east, rather than send three Eastern teams west. Save a few bucks on air fare.

Softball deserves better.

“From a coaching standpoint . . . I don’t worry about it,” Candrea said. “I just worry about getting the team prepared and going wherever you’re going. Like I tell the kids, at least you’re playing.”

Football and basketball have to pay the freight for everything else, but you would think there would be some loose change in the NCAA’s couch cushions from its TV megadeals.

The NCAA is in the midst of an 11-year, $6 billion deal with CBS to televise the men’s basketball tournament. The NCAA and ESPN reached an agreement in the fall on a four-year, $500 million deal for the rights to televise four of the five BCS bowl games, including the title game.

But, apparently, it is too much to ask for the NCAA to send Cal State Fullerton and San Diego State a little farther to Tucson rather than have them play in a regional at Arizona State.

The Sun Devils are seeded one spot below ninth-seeded Arizona and finished 3 1/2 games behind the Wildcats in the Pac-10 standings.

But ASU, not Arizona, gets the home regional because of geography.

Nickels and dimes.

Candrea shrugs.

“I’m too old to fight the battle anyway,” he said.

Someone asked me the other day about my favorite memories across two decades or so of being a sports reporter/columnist in Tucson. My answer was that there were too many to mention, but that, without question, I would rather cover softball than anything else.

Part of that is because the sport is charmingly small. You rarely find oversize egos. You find athletes appreciative of their opportunities.

There are chances to tell untold stories. But the sport isn’t as small as the NCAA makes it out to be this time of year.

It’s a shame there is no college softball at Hillenbrand Stadium this weekend.

Anthony Gimino’s e-mail: agimino@tucsoncitizen.com

Candrea

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RADIO, ONLINE COVERAGE

UA’s games in the Louisville Regional won’t be on TV, but will be on 1290 AM. Go to www.tucsoncitizen.com/ua_softball for updates.

Friday – Game 1: ARIZONA (41-14) vs. Tennessee-Martin (38-22), 1 p.m. Game 2: Louisville (47-9) vs. Purdue (29-18), 3 p.m.

Saturday – Game 3: Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner, 7 a.m. Game 4: Game 1 loser vs. Game 2 loser, 9 a.m. Game 5: Game 3 loser vs. Game 4 winner, noon

Sunday – Game 6: Game 3 winner vs. Game 5 winner, 11 a.m. Game 7: Repeat, if needed, 1 p.m.

WASHINGTON – Deterred by immigration laws and the lackluster economy, the population growth of Hispanics and Asians in the U.S. has slowed unexpectedly, causing the government to push back estimates on when minorities will become the majority by as much as a decade.

Census data released Thursday showed that the nation’s overall minority population continues to rise steadily, adding 2.3 percent in 2008 to 104.6 million, or 34 percent of the total population. But the slowdown among Hispanics and Asians continues to shift conventional notions on when the tipping point in U.S. diversity will come – estimated to occur more than three decades from now.

According to the latest data, the percentage growth of Hispanics slowed from 4.0 percent in 2001 to 3.2 percent last year. Their slowed population growth would have been greater if it weren’t for their high fertility – nearly 10 births for every death.

Asian population increases slowed from 3.7 percent in 2001 to about 2.5 percent. Hispanics and Asians still are the two fastest-growing minority groups, making up about 15 percent and 4.4 percent of the U.S. population, respectively.

Thirty-six states had lower Hispanic growth in 2008 compared with the year before. The declines were in places where the housing bubble burst, such as Nevada and Arizona, which lost construction jobs that tend to attract immigrants.

Arizona’s total population grew by 2.3 percent from 2007 to 2008, slightly below its 2.6 percent average growth rate for the eight preceding years.

Hispanics grew by 4 percent statewide from 2007 to 2008 compared to an average 4.6 percent growth rate for prior years and Asians grew by 4.8 percent during the same time frame compared to an average rate of 5.7 percent for the 2000 to 2007 years.

Trend also seen in Southeast

Other decreases were seen in new immigrant destinations in the Southeast, previously seen as offering good manufacturing jobs in lower-cost cities compared to the pricier Northeast. In contrast, cities in California, Illinois and New Jersey showed gains.

In Arkansas, manufacturing and poultry companies have cut hours and workers, leaving a growing number of Hispanics unable to cover their mortgage payments, said Maribel Tapia, a housing counselor in Fayetteville, Ark. Fathers are moving out of state, where other relatives have lines on menial jobs that support the families they leave behind, she said.

Police in northwest Arkansas created an immigration task force with the help of U.S. immigration agents.

“I don’t think it’s more likely they’re going back to Mexico or El Salvador or wherever they’re from,” she said. “They’re just calling different family members in different states and asking around about work. They just pack up and move.”

The political effects can be high. Minorities turned out in record numbers in November to vote, largely for Democrat Barack Obama for president, and Hispanic groups are expected to flex their growing clout in future elections as they push immigration reform.

More than a dozen states also stand to gain or lose House seats after the 2010 census depending on last-minute shifts in population.

“Not just whites are staying put, but minorities are staying put and immigrants are staying put,” said Mark Mather, associate vice president of the nonprofit Population Reference Bureau, citing in part a declining economy that has locked the U.S. population largely in place.

“I was surprised the drop in Hispanic growth rates wasn’t bigger given the decline in immigration,” he said. “Government policy will certainly have a major effect on future race and ethnic composition if Congress takes some action on immigration reform.”

The Census Bureau projected last August that white children will become the minority in 2023 and the overall white population will follow in 2042. The agency now says it will recalculate those figures, typically updated every three to four years, because they don’t fully take into account anti-immigration policies after the September 2001 terror attacks and the current economic recession.

The new projections, expected to be released later this year, could delay the tipping point for minorities by 10 years, given the current low rates of immigration, David Waddington, the Census Bureau’s chief of projections, said in a telephone interview.

“Policies changed,” he said, in explaining why the scientific estimates were no longer valid.

Blacks, who comprise about 12.2 percent of the population, have increased at a rate of about 1 percent each year. Whites, with a median age of 41, have increased very little in recent years because of low birth rates and an aging boomer population.

The migration shift could continue for a while, said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, citing the bursting of an unprecedented housing bubble in 2005-2006 that is helping reshape the economy.

“What this means is that the idea of creating new Asian and Hispanic enclaves in different parts of the United States will undergo a bit of a wall,” said Frey. “Those staying in these enclaves will be competing for jobs with long-term residents, while others will return to social support systems in major gateways.”

Six U.S. counties saw their minority populations become the majority, including Orange County, Fla., the nation’s 35th most populous county that is home to Orlando. Webster County in Georgia had a majority of minority groups in 2007 but reverted back to a white majority in 2008.

In all, about 309 of the nation’s 3,142 counties, or 1 in 10, have minority populations greater than 50 percent. Other counties that become majority-minority in 2008 were Stanislaus in California; Finney in Kansas; Warren in Mississippi; and Edwards and Schleicher counties in Texas.

Other findings:

• There are 48 majority Hispanic counties nationally; the top 10 were all in Texas. The gateway cities of Los Angeles, New York, Miami, Houston and Chicago had the greatest number of Hispanics.

• Seventy-seven counties are majority-black; all were in the South. Atlanta edged past Chicago in the number of blacks, ranking second after New York City. They were followed by Washington and Philadelphia.

• Honolulu County, Hawaii, was the only majority Asian county in the nation. New York City had the highest population of Asians, surpassing Los Angeles. Asians also numbered the most in San Francisco; San Jose, Calif.; and Chicago.

• California, the nation’s most populous state, also had the most number of whites. Maine and Vermont had the highest share of whites at 95 percent each.

In Nashville, Tenn., Maria Lopez, a 49-year-old Mexican immigrant, said business is down 80 percent at the restaurant she runs, and 10 to 15 people come in a day asking for jobs, mostly Hispanics.

Lopez said she had to cut back on the amount of money she was sending back home to her family in Mexico. Although she’s been in the U.S. for 13 years, she is thinking about returning to Mexico.

“I am just making enough to pay the lease and the bills,” Lopez said through a translator. “If things continue like that, I will leave.”

The 2008 census estimates used local records of births and deaths, tax records of people moving within the U.S., and census statistics on immigrants.

The figures for “white” refer to those whites who are not of Hispanic ethnicity. Since the government considers “Hispanic” an ethnicity, people of Hispanic descent can be of any race.

An artist's rendering of the Sheraton Tucson Convention Center Hotel

The TCC hotel is on.

The City Council, with an “absolutely” from Councilwoman Nina Trasoff and “yeah” from Mayor Bob Walkup unanimously approved a development agreement Tuesday for a 525-room, 25-story Sheraton Tucson Convention Center Hotel.

“We’re coming here to build an astounding hotel edifice,” Trasoff said.

Garfield Traub Development is the hotel developer. Schematic design work will start this month, with construction of a new east-side main entrance for the TCC set to start in September. The hotel will be built where TCC’s grand lobby is now. Construction is to start at the TCC’s west lobby in March 2010.

The $239 million hotel, TCC expansion and parking garage project has become a priority for the city as it tries to save Rio Nuevo from the Legislature’s budget ax.

Focusing on the TCC complex came at the expense of the Tucson Origins museum complex on the West Side.

“I want to make sure we do not forget many of the things voters approved in 1999,” said Councilwoman Regina Romero. “We also have a cultural complex that the people of Tucson voted for.”

Councilwoman Karin Uhlich urged fiscal caution during economic hard times.

The estimated $167 million hotel will be funded with a tax-exempt revenue bond, and certificates of participation will likely pay for the $39 million TCC expansion and $33 million garage, Rio Nuevo director Greg Shelko said.

WASHINGTON – Social Security and Medicare are fading even faster under the weight of the recession, heading for insolvency years sooner than previously expected, the government warned Tuesday.

Medicare already is paying out more money than it receives, something that happened for the first time last year. And Social Security will be by 2016, a year sooner than had been projected, the trustees’ annual report said.

Unless changes in Social Security are enacted, the retirement fund will be depleted in 2037, four years sooner than projected last year. The Medicare trust fund is in even worse shape. It is projected to become insolvent in 2017, two years earlier than expected.

More immediately, the trustees do not expect Social Security recipients to get cost-of-living increases in 2010 or 2011, something that hasn’t happened since automatic adjustments were adopted in 1975. The Social Security Administration will set next year’s cost-of-living adjustment in October, based on inflation over the previous year.

“We should neither be casual nor hysterical about the revised insolvency dates,” Social Security Commissioner Michael Astrue said. “The Social Security system will weather this recession. However, the sooner we get on with the task of reforming the system, the easier it will be to make the tough choices.”

The recession is hurting both funds, which are financed by payroll taxes. The U.S. has lost 5.7 million jobs since the recession began, meaning fewer payroll taxes are flowing into the funds. At the same time, aging baby boomers and rising health care costs are adding to expenditures.

The trust funds – which exist in paper form in a filing cabinet in Parkersburg, W.Va. – are bonds that are backed by the government’s “full faith and credit” but not by any actual assets. That money has been spent over the years to fund other parts of government. To redeem the trust fund bonds, the government would have to borrow in public debt markets or raise taxes.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, the head of the trustees group, said reducing health care costs is the key to saving Medicare.

“The most effective entitlement reform measure will be a major health reform that helps bring down the growth rate of national health care spending,” Geithner said.

Their spending more than triples since 2001

Ana Cota, Carlos Silva and their daughter, Carla Silva, 7, of Hermosillo, Son., arrive at Park Place mall, where they planned to shop for clothing and a large-screen television. The family makes the 4- to 5-hour trip to Tucson to shop about once a week.

Mexican visitors’ annual economic impact on the Tucson area has grown dramatically and is approaching the $1 billion mark, according to a University of Arizona study released last week.

“It’s a huge economic driver for us here in Tucson,” said Felipe Garcia, vice president of community affairs and Mexico marketing at the Metropolitan Tucson Convention & Visitors Bureau.

Metro Tucson reaped a $968.7 million direct economic benefit from Mexican tourists from July 2007 through June 2008, up 245 percent over the $280.2 million in 2001, according to “Mexican Visitors to Arizona: Visitor Characteristics and Economic Impacts 2007-2008.”

Pima County reaped the largest share of their economic impact in Arizona, with more than 36 percent of the $2.7 billion in statewide spending occurring here, the report said.

Carlos Silva, Ana Cota and their daughter, Carla Silva, 7, make the four- to five-hour drive from Hermosillo, Son., weekly to shop in Tucson.

Tucson offers a better selection of products than he can find at home, Silva said Sunday as the family prepared to enter Park Place, ranked in the study as the No. 2 shopping destination in Tucson, behind Tucson Mall.

The family’s favorite stores at the mall are Old Navy, Sears and Macy’s, he said. They also like to get to Tucson Mall, Best Buy, Wal-Mart and Target, he said.

Silva said he was looking for clothing for Carla and a large-screen television.

The family typically spends six to eight hours shopping per trip to Tucson, he said.

Carla said the trips are about more than shopping. The family had breakfast at IHOP to celebrate Mother’s Day before hitting the mall, she said.

And her mom would be getting a nice gift at the mall, Carla said.

About 65,000 Mexican residents on average came to Arizona each day to legally work, visit friends and relatives, shop and play in 2007-08, the study says.

That comes to 24 million visitors for the year, a 4.9 percent increase over the 2001 total of 22.9 million.

Each day, visitors from Mexico spent $7.3 million in Arizona stores, restaurants, hotels and other businesses, an increase of 213 percent from 2001.

“Over 5 percent of taxable sales in Pima County are attributed to the Mexican visitors,” Garcia, of the visitors bureau, said. “It’s really good for us.”

The study was prepared by Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi and Alberta H. Charney of the University of Arizona Eller College of Management’s Economic and Business Research Center for the Arizona Office of Tourism.

Mexican tourism “really plays a significant role,” Pavlakovich-Kochi said. “Spending has occurred when our regional economy shows signs of recession. It has really offset to a degree the effect of the declining regional economy.”

Mexican consumers seem to be more willing to spend during the current economic downturn than Americans, Garcia said.

“When we talk to our visitors, they don’t seem to have a lot of anxiety about the economic turmoil,” Garcia said.

“They don’t stop spending because of what they see and read. The Mexican consumer is more used to it, better prepared, and they know things happen. They say things are bad but we’ll get out of this.”

More staying overnight

Local efforts to boost Mexican visitors and spending have paid off, Garcia said.

Mexican visitors who stayed here overnight jumped from 4 percent in 2001 to 16 percent in 2007-08, Garcia said.

“Overnight visitors always spend more than day trippers,” Pavlakovich-Kochi said.

A Tucson tourism office in Hermosillo, Son., has helped boost the number of visitors and their spending in recent years, Garcia said.

The office sells tickets for concerts or shows at Tucson-area casinos and offers other Tucson tourism services, he said.

Lower prices and greater product selection draw shoppers from Mexico, Garcia said.

Many textile and electronic products sold in Mexico are imported from Asia, he said.

Mexico and China are engaged in a “non-declared” tariff war, which means high prices for goods in Mexico, which pushes shoppers to Tucson, Garcia said.

Growing challenges

The Convention & Visitors Bureau has increased its spending aimed at attracting Mexican visitors from $30,000 to $300,000 in recent years, Garcia said.

But other communities – Scottsdale, Phoenix, Tempe and Las Vegas – are also going after Mexican visitors, he said.

Maricopa County’s economic benefit from Mexican visitors jumped from $36.5 million in 2001 to $694.2 million in 2007-08, an 1,800 percent increase.

“We’re definitely ahead of the curve,” Garcia said, “but there are a lot of communities that are trying to position themselves and gain market share. Here in Tucson, we know that retail is directly impacted by tourism. We cannot slow down, we cannot say we have been successful.”

One area being investigated for growth is drawing visitors here from Mexico for medical services.

That includes cosmetic and elective surgery, Garcia said.

“We are working with the medical industry to develop more medical tourism into Tucson,” he said.

“They come here and they pay cash. No insurance, no billing.”

A slide in the peso’s value against the dollar has made it more expensive for Mexicans to shop in the U.S., so fewer customers may be crossing now.

In April, the average exchange rate was 13.3944 pesos to a U.S. dollar compared with 10.5146 in April 2008, a decline of 27 percent.

Increasingly restrictive regulations for crossing the border and more stringent entry documentation policies could pose another challenge to Mexican visitor spending, Pavlakovich-Kochi said.

Making it tougher for Mexican visitors to get here means less revenue for local merchants – something few people consider when pushing for making crossing more difficult, she said.

“The focus has really been on the border issues and the illegal immigration,” she said. “This (economic benefit) has been on the back burner.”

While spending by Mexican visitors may decrease from 2007-08 levels, the area will continue to reap some economic benefit, Pavlakovich-Kochi said.

“Realistically, looking at the near future, we will probably expect a decrease in total spending,” she said.

“Maybe we had an extraordinary year of Mexican visitors and expenditures in Arizona. But it will continue: It is not something that will be totally erased overnight.”

Cronkite News Service contributed to this report.

———

TOP DESTINATIONS

Where Mexican visitors to metro Tucson shopped 2007-2008.

Malls/shopping centers

1. Tucson Mall

2. Park Place

3. Foothills Mall

4. Plaza Palomino

5. El Con Mall

6. St. Philip’s Plaza

7. La Encantada

8. Casas Adobes Plaza

9. Crossroads

Other stores

1. Wal-Mart

2. Costco

3. Best Buy

4. Target

5. Ross

6. Mervyn’s*

7. Walgreens

8. Circuit City*

8. Marshall’s

9. Home Depot

10. Food City

* now closed

Metro Tucson attractions visited by Mexican tourists

1. Casinos

2. Reid Park Zoo

3. Old Tucson Studios

4. Arizona-Sonora Desert Museum

5. Other museums

6. Saguaro National Park

7. San Xavier Mission

8. Tucson Convention Center

9. Concerts/theaters

10. Colossal Cave

11. University of Arizona

12. Downtown

———

WHY TUCSON?

A number of factors led to an increase in local expenditures by Mexican visitors between 2001 and 2007-08, said Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi of the University of Arizona Eller College of Management’s Economic and Business Research Center.

Metro Tucson saw a fourfold increase in overnight visitors from Mexico, she said.

The peso/dollar exchange rate was very favorable to Mexican visitors, who could purchase more goods for their cash, particularly in the first half of 2008, she said.

Fears of an impending peso devaluation, which occurred later that year, saw Mexican consumers increase their Arizona spending during the time of the study, she said.

And 2008 was the last year Mexican visitors were allowed to enter the U.S. before more stringent documentation requirements were enforced, she said.

———

$968 million

Tucson-area expenditures by Mexican visitors in 2007-08

245%

Increase in Tucson-area expenditures by Mexican visitors from 2001 to 2008

5.2%

Portion of taxable sales Mexican visitors accounted for in Pima County in 2007-08

Teri Melendez, principal at Borton Primary Magnet and Holladay Intermediate Magnet, will be at Borton four days a week. The fifth day she'll be at Holladay, where an assistant principal will be in charge most of the time, said Chief Academic Officer Maggie Shafer.

Two schools in Tucson Unified School District will go without principals next year, opting for less costly assistant principals so they will have more money for things like school supplies and staff members.

Those decisions, at Holladay Intermediate Magnet and Richey Elementary, and hundreds more on cutting expenses were included in reports by school site councils in the last several weeks and turned into TUSD last month.

Superintendent Elizabeth Celania-Fagen had authorized schools this spring to make the cuts instead of having central administration do it. Site councils consist of parents and staff.

Obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request, the documents tell a bare-bones story for next year if potential cuts of up to 18 percent are realized. Schools had to turn in two plans – one for cuts of 10 percent, another for 18 percent. They should find out which level is needed in June.

The no-principal plan was one of many in which school communities tried to creatively deal with expected legislative cuts to TUSD’s budget of $20 million to $45 million for fiscal 2009-10, which starts July 1.

Spending for campus monitors dwindles or disappears at many high schools. So does funding for fine arts.

Reports from Utterback Middle Magnet School of the Arts, Hohokam Middle School and Booth-Fickett Math/Science Magnet appear to keep spending for supplies and some staff relatively the same at both the 10 percent and 18 percent levels, but have the number of teachers decrease.

Alice Vail Middle School’s biggest cut is in supplies. It’s allotting itself nearly $17,829 in main office and attendance office supplies under the 10 percent cut scenario, but only $1,114 if the cuts are at 18 percent. Teaching supply allocations there go from $11,143 at 10 percent to $6,686 at 18 percent.

At other middle and elementary schools, counselors, librarians and monitors are too costly to keep. But they kept their principals.

Richey and Holladay this year already have only half-time principals. Richey shares Ruben Diaz with Carrillo Magnet; Holladay shares Teri Melendez with Borton Primary Magnet.

But the schools chose to let Diaz be full time at Carrillo next year. Melendez will be at Borton four days a week. The fifth day she’ll be at Holladay, where an assistant principal will be in charge most of the time, said Chief Academic Officer Maggie Shafer.

Shafer said she has faith in the plans. At Richey the assistant principal will “continue the positive momentum created this year by Diaz . . . and at Holladay, the assistant principal will continue to make the school a more robust magnet.”

Other dual-principal schools took the opportunity for self-determination to change their circumstances.

Davis Bilingual Magnet Elementary and Roskruge, both an elementary and bilingual middle school, which shared a principal this year, will each have a full-time principal next year. Roskruge will lose an assistant principal.

Manzo and Rogers elementaries will go from a half-time to full-time principals next year. Bloom Elementary will go from a half-time principal to one four days a week, as will Sewell Elementary.

Marshall Elementary, at 18 percent cuts, will opt for a two-thirds-time principal.

Another Chief Academic Officer, Ross Sheard, said he worries there will be fewer chances to offer advanced classes next year and fewer people to supervise students – and employees.

Said Tucson Education Association President Steve Courter: There could be some real implications, especially for schools that don’t get any federal funding. “And still we are not hearing anything positive from the governor or the Legislature.”

Arizona representatives co-sponsor bill seeking relief

When Barbara Sotelo’s husband died in an accident two years ago, her life began to spiral downward.

Faced with raising three children on her paycheck from the state Department of Corrections, Sotelo scraped by for most of a year. Then her adjustable-rate mortgage payment jumped to $1,500.

“That made me use my credit cards so I could keep up,” said the 38-year-old single mother.

Leaning on credit cards for school clothes and sometimes food soon led to higher card balances and payments, and the mortgage burden led to late card payments that sparked higher interest rates.

Credit fees and penalties quickly spun out of control. Sotelo has paid more than $1,000 in card fees in the past year, and all of her interest rates have jumped above 20 percent.

Now she is struggling to keep her home, and credit card companies won’t lower rates or forgive fees that stack on top of existing balances, which total about $8,000, she said.

It’s a difficult life that puts knots in her stomach with every ring of the telephone.

“You go through anxiety, and you’re afraid to answer the phone,” Sotelo said. “My phone is always ringing. Sometimes at 7 o’clock on Saturday, they start calling.”

A bill passed by the U.S. House of Representatives and one pending in the Senate would shelter consumers from some credit card practices that hurt people like Sotelo.

The House’s Credit Cardholders’ Bill of Rights (HR 627) would prevent punitive interest rate increases unless an account was more than 30 days late and require credit card companies to give 45 days’ notice for interest rate increases. It would limit late and over-limit fees and allow consumers to set “hard” limits so purchases would not go through if they push cards over the limit.

U.S. Reps. Gabrielle Giffords and Raúl Grijalva, Democrats from Tucson, co-sponsored the bill.

A companion bill in the Senate would ban punitive interest rate hikes unless payments were 60 days behind, let consumers regain low interest rates after six months of paying on time and require anyone 21 or younger to prove ability to repay before a card could be issued.

The legislation is likely to change before a compromise version is sent to President Obama, and credit provider lobbyists are sure to fight to dilute the bill.

Obama has signaled he would sign such legislation if it passed.

Card debt increasing

About 46 percent of American families had credit card balances in 2007, with an average of $3,000 outstanding – a 25 percent balance increase in three years, according to a Federal Reserve survey report in February.

From 2000 to 2003, the average balance increased just 9 percent, the report said.

Nonhousing debt payments accounted for an average 14 percent of disposable income among survey respondents in 2007 – virtually unchanged from 2004.

But the number of families with debt payments totaling 40 percent or more of their income rose 2.5 percent from 2004 to 2007, which hints at an increase in families with burdensome debt, the report said.

When Sotelo needed advice, she turned to the nonprofit Primavera Foundation, which offers free financial counseling and education. Primavera can help people avert disaster, but that’s usually not the case, said counselor Lisa Peregrina.

“A lot of people don’t learn about credit until they’re in a credit card crisis,” Peregrina said.

Primavera sees walk-in clients and gets referrals, often from banks trying to help people qualify for home or other loans. The number of clients seeking help has risen dramatically in recent months, Peregrina said.

“And the numbers keep going up,” she said.

Consumer Credit Counseling Services, a nonprofit funded largely by credit card issuers, offers free counseling. And for $25 a month, it will manage your debt for you. The company has also seen a sharp increase in clients, said counselor Maria Grijalva.

High interest rates hurt

Interest rates are a common route to higher credit card bills, according to Grijalva and Peregrina.

Many card companies offer low or no interest for new accounts, then slip a policy into the fine print that says interest rates rise if payments are late. Sotelo has been hit by this numerous times, and Peregrina sees it all too often.

“The rate may be zero percent, but if you miss one payment, it might go up suddenly to 29 percent,” Peregrina said.

The House bill would prohibit such rate changes unless a payment were more than 30 days late. The Senate version would extend that to 60 days.

Over-limit fees that often top $30 also snare consumers. Again, credit card companies’ fine print often lets them change limits at will and allows the card holder to freely charge beyond limits.

Card companies are increasingly lowering credit limits, even for customers who always pay on time, and a lack of hard limits means many consumers unwittingly exceed limits and get stung by fees.

Both bills would force credit card companies to notify you at least 45 days before contract changes, such as lowered credit limits.

Avoiding disaster

A key reason people get trapped is a lack of information, even a little bit of which can steer you clear of fees and skyrocketing interest rates, Grijalva said.

“A majority of people don’t even know what their interest rates are,” she said.

Above all, Grijalva urged consumers to read the fine print in credit applications and terms.

“You always have to read the fine print, and it’s always, always in the very fine print where the most important information is,” she said.

Both Grijalva and Peregrina suggest calling credit card companies to negotiate lower interest – even if you have a high rate because of late payments.

“You do have a right to call that credit card company and ask them to negotiate,” Peregrina said.

She also suggests self-imposed balance limits. Keeping your outstanding balance at half or less of your available balance helps your credit score and lowers the chance you will charge over the card limit, she said.

Always review statements, limit yourself to one or two cards for emergencies only and keep those cards at home to avoid temptation, Grijalva said.

“Don’t keep it in your wallet,” she said.

Vigilance and education are your best weapons – whether you are already in trouble with debt or have always been able to pay on time, the counselors said.

And be patient, Peregrina said.

“It took some time to get this debt up. It’s going to take some time to pay it down.”

———

WHERE TO GET HELP

• Primavera Foundation, 623-5111

• Chicanos por la Causa, 253-0838

• Consumer Credit Counseling Services, 795-1121

• Catholic Community Services of Southern Arizona, 623-0344

• Family Housing Foundation, 318-0993

• TMM Family Services, 322-9557

• Tucson Urban League, 791-9522

• Old Pueblo Community Services, 445-7085

———

AVOIDING CREDIT WOES

• Have one or two credit cards, and use them only for emergencies.

• Don’t carry credit cards with you; leave them at home so they won’t tempt you.

• Review statements carefully. Interest rates and card limits can change unexpectedly, even for people who pay on time.

• Ask questions of your credit card companies.

• Know what actions can trigger higher interest rates such as late payments or over-limit charges.

• Don’t just blame your credit card company when problems arise; you are at fault, too.

• Negotiate with card companies to get lower interest rates. Sometimes they listen.

• Start negotiating with creditors before you have trouble.

Sources: Primavera Foundation, Consumer Credit Counseling

———

DID YOU KNOW?

• 46 percent of American families had credit card balances in 2007, with an average $3,000 outstanding balance, a 25 percent balance increase in three years, according to a Federal Reserve survey released in February. During the previous three years, the average outstanding balance increased 9 percent.

• Nonhousing-related debt payments accounted for an average of 14 percent of disposable income among respondents to a 2007 Federal Reserve survey, virtually unchanged from 2004.

But the number of families with debt payments totaling 40 percent or more of their income rose 2.5 percent from 2004-07, which hints at an increase in families with burdensome debt, the survey said.

It started with a letter.

When Arizona State University officials got word that President Barack Obama would likely speak at a couple of university commencement ceremonies this spring, they quickly drafted a two-page letter in hopes of getting him at ASU.

They got right to the point.

“As president of Arizona State University, it is my distinct honor and pleasure to inform you that the university has selected you as our 2009 commencement speaker,” ASU President Michael Crow wrote in the March 12 letter.

The White House accepted.

On Wednesday, Obama will become the first U.S. president to speak at an ASU commencement.

The crowd expected to attend ASU’s commencement has swelled to 63,000 and appears to be the largest U.S. audience the president will have addressed since his inauguration.

Private firm cleaning up at Tucson’s expense

Bill Hill and Chris Landeen dump their trash at the Los Reales Landfill, 5300 E. Los Reales Road.

Tucson officials estimate a transfer station opened in November by garbage giant Waste Management will siphon 100,000 tons of trash and $3 million in revenue from the city over the next year.

The lost revenue, in combination with plummeting prices for recyclables and high prices for gas, mean the 5-year-old and much scorned city garbage fee is set to go up. Landfill fees have already seen increases.

Environmental Services Department Director Andrew Quigley has asked the City Council to raise the trash fee to $14.50 per month beginning July 1.

A City Council vote on the proposed 3.6-percent increase is set to follow a public hearing June 2.

That day, the council also is slated to tentatively approve a $1.3 billion budget that, as of Friday, included $12.4 million in new or increased taxes and millions more in raised fees. The same day, the council will weigh whether to raise bus fares.

With a budget that relies heavily on sales tax receipts, the city has been struggling to pay its daily bills.

The Environmental Services Department is in similar shape, also having to contend with volatile gas and recyclables prices and relying on sources of funding that are on the decline, most notably private haulers’ landfill fees.

While the public landfill business appears on a downhill slide, Waste Management is reporting increased landfill profits.

The company stated in its first quarter earnings statement that its landfill revenues rose 3.1 percent from the same year before even as its overall earnings dropped more than 16 percent amid a recession.

Waste Management operates the largest network of landfills in the country, with 277 sites accepting more than 116 million tons of waste per year, according to its Web site.

Two of those sites are in the Tucson area, and both have represented challenges to the local governments operating nearby dumps.

A transfer station at 5200 W. Ina Road contributed to Pima County raising landfill fees last year and second-guessing the timing of the closure of its Northwest Side landfill at Tangerine Road.

The opening of Rincon Transfer Station at 5890 S. Mann Ave. in November is causing consternation among city officials because private haulers who once dropped waste at the city’s Los Reales Landfill have begun using the Waste Management facility.

Quigley estimates the shift will mean 20 percent less trash – 100,000 tons – entering the city’s Los Reales landfill next fiscal year, which begins July 1.

Waste Management Arizona spokeswoman Melissa Quillard would not say how much trash the Mann Avenue transfer station accepts. She said publicizing the information could give competitors an advantage.

But Quigley is certain a large proportion of the trash that had been going to Los Reales is now headed for ultimate disposal at Waste Management’s Maricopa and Pinal county dumps.

In a bid to recoup some of the financial losses that follow from the diverted trash, Quigley has offered cut rates to haulers that promise to deliver a set amount of waste.

He hasn’t received any responses yet, though he said haulers expressed interest when he first came up with the deal.

“Right now, we’re just waiting,” he said.

Councilwoman Nina Trasoff praised Quigley for his attempt to extend a deal to the haulers.

“I think that the money he’s going to recoup that way is a very creative approach,” she said.

Regardless of how successful the contract program is in luring haulers back to Los Reales, Environmental Services will almost definitely need other revenue to stay in the black.

That leaves the City Council with an unpopular political decision and one that brushes up against campaign promises made by at least two council members.

Both Trasoff and Councilwoman Karin Uhlich campaigned against the $14 a month trash fee four years ago, saying it was too expensive and implemented inappropriately.

They said when the fee was imposed the year before – 2004 – public comment opportunities were lacking and the waiver program for low-income city residents was inadequate.

Now they’re faced with upping the price.

“(Raising the trash fee) will never make me happy,” Trasoff said. “But it’s been demonstrated that there’s a real need and the money is used for garbage services. I can live with it so long as I know that we have a meaningful waiver program in effect.”

Uhlich takes a similar stance, though she puts the proposed increase in the context of a plan to attach fees to indexes.

“I think there seems to be support on the council to apply indexes across all city fees so that we avoid the large adjustments, which are historically more the norm,” she said.

The reason for indexing, Uhlich said, is that increases will be predictable and therefore easier to incorporate into budgets.

So that applying an index wouldn’t simply mean prices increase gradually but without any relationship to cost trends, Uhlich suggests using indexes that apply directly to the fee at hand.

A fuel index, for example, could be applied to a garbage fee because fuel is one of the primary costs in collecting trash, she said.

Councilman Rodney Glassman, like Trasoff, is not entirely opposed to indexing, though he is wary of applying indexes across the board.

“It’s important when looking at the question of indexing to consider other factors such as the economy and the actual cost of providing the services,” he said. “I support indexing as part of a pricing model but not something that can be relied upon as the sole indicator of price adjustment.”

He advocates giving department directors more leeway in setting fees and running departments more like businesses.

He also thinks the trash fee increase is a better alternative to letting garbage services suffer because there’s not enough money to pay for them.

“It’s unrealistic to think that the department can continue to provide services without adjusting their rates over time,” he said.

Councilwoman Regina Romero also seems to accept the fee increase but is less enthusiastic about using an index.

“It seems that the fees are accumulating,” she said. “At the same time, I see the budget holes.”

The Rincon Recycling and Transfer facility, 5890 S. Mann Ave.

———

TRASH AT A GLANCE

Los Reales Landfill, 5300 E. Los Reales Road

Hours: 6 a.m. to 5 p.m. Monday through Saturday

Residential rates: $10 for a covered load weighing less than a ton; $30 per ton for heavier, covered loads; uncovered loads cost $5 more

Commercial rates: $30 per ton for covered loads; $5 more for uncovered loads

Waste Management’s Rincon Transfer Station, 5890 S. Mann Ave.

Hours: 7 a.m. to 3 p.m. Monday through Friday; 7 a.m. to noon Saturday

Residential rates: $38 per ton plus $14 per load for loads weighing less than 500 pounds

Commercial rates: $38 per ton plus about $5 in variable fees

Source: City of Tucson and Waste Management