Citizen Staff Writer

BLAKE MORLOCK

bmorlock@tucsoncitizen.com

State investigators Tuesday inspected 15 baggage scales at Tucson International Airport, none of which passed muster.

All of the scales used by United Airlines and Delta Air Lines to weigh luggage for extra fees were shut down by the Arizona Department of Weights and Measures pending repair and recertification.

The two airlines were the first chosen as part of regular but rare state testing last done in 2004. The agency intends to test the scales of all the airlines at the airport.

The results were disturbing, said Weights and Measures spokesman Steve Meissner, because every scale tested failed.

Meissner said the agency recently completed a round of testing at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport and didn’t fail a single luggage scale.

In Tucson, United failed because security seals on the scales were missing and Delta workers had put wood and foam rubber pads under its scales, Meissner said.

How much each scale was off was not provided.

Delta spokesman Anthony Black said the weight discrepancy was minor and likely did not affect many passengers. He said the company will fix the problems.

“We apologize if anyone was improperly charged by scales that were out of line,” Black said from Atlanta.

United certified its Tucson scales in June and will investigate to see what went wrong, company spokesman Jeff Kovick said.

“We’re working now to quickly correct the problem with the scales,” Kovick said from Chicago.

United has nine daily flights in and out of Tucson and Delta flies seven times to and from TIA. They each accommodate more than 600 customers every day.

For each inaccurate scale, the airlines will face a fine of at least $300, Meissner said.

United charges a $125 fee for luggage weighing more than 50 pounds.

Delta charges $25 for bags from 50 to 70 pounds and $80 on luggage weighing between 71 and 100 pounds, according to information provided by Meissner.

The practice of charging began when fuel prices surged last year, but the airlines offer different explanations.

Delta executives began enforcing existing baggage charges to encourage passengers to help save fuel, Black said.

United began to price its service based on the fuel needed to move each passenger, Kovick said.

The practice has changed how passengers such as Sid and Joyce Anderson pack for flights.

They faced no charges Tuesday as they flew Delta home to Salt Lake City because the scales were not used. They are convinced it wouldn’t have mattered.

The two, in town to visit family, weigh their bags before leaving for the airport.

“We’re really careful with them,” said Joyce Anderson, to which her husband added: “If they told us we were over, we’d complain. We know what they weigh.”

Citizen Staff Writer

U.S. Rep. Raúl Grijalva’s potential move to run the Interior Department could set off a mad scramble to replace him in Congress.

Grijalva has been mentioned as a contender for the Cabinet post by newspapers and political Web sites since last week.

The governor does not get to fill a vacant seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. It’s the one post that requires an election to fill an empty spot.

So within 72 hours of Grijalva’s would-be resignation, the governor must call special primary and general elections.

The primary, by state law, must be held no more than 90 days later. The general election would follow no more than 60 days after the primary.

Candidates would have only 30 days to gather the necessary signatures, rather than the months candidates often take to pad their petitions.

Of course, the race would likely be settled during the primary because twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans live in the district.

Face it. This could be a jail break of any and all ambitious Democrats from Tucson to Yuma, ready to fight for a $169,300 annual salary, House voting card and membership pin.

The rub is that state lawmakers and county officials must quit their posts to run for Congress. That’s a gamble that may keep such a field small.

Three months is a super fast campaign and could render cash less important than it is in a typical political campaign.

Money usually equals viability and the organized players often wait to see who raises the most money before backing a particular candidate.

In a 90-day election, interest groups may not have time to wait, said Diana Rhoades, a Tucson political activist and campaign veteran.

Having a base of supporters would matter more, she said.

“The candidate with the grass-roots support is going to have a leg up,” Rhoades said. “People are going to give money to the candidate they have a comfort level with.”

Grijalva won with such an organization and still has a cavalcade, not so much a machine, of neighborhood groups, social justice liberals and Latino support.

The natural heir to that support seems like County Supervisor Richard Elías, Grijalva’s successor on the Board of Supervisors.

Supervisor Ramón Valadez, with his South Tucson base, may also be a player. His connection to his predecessor, Dan Eckstrom, could provide lift and drag to any of his aspirations.

Possible candidates also include state Sen. Paula Aboud, Tucson City Council member Nina Trasoff; and state Reps. Linda Lopez and Steve Farley.

Don’t be shocked if the business community runs a well-financed moderate Democrat, hoping liberals split the vote.

A glut of Pima County candidates could slice and dice voters enough to give an outlander such as Nogales Mayor Marco A. Lopez a shot.

It’s a working list but area Democratic leaders would not dispute any of those names, off-the-record, of course.

The small matter of Grijalva’s nomination and subsequent confirmation would have to come first and neither are a lock.

But there’s reason to believe it may happen.

Grijalva has been unavailable for comment since his name surfaced and spent last weekend in Washington after the legislative session ended, reportedly to spend time with his family.

A-hem.

Barack Obama’s appointments so far have been thin on liberals and Latinos, two groups crossing their arms, furrowing their brows and tapping their toes with anticipation.

Since his days on the Pima County Board of Supervisors, Grijalva has built the kind of green legacy environmentalists could fall in love with and industry types would likely find hostile. His work at the county level to protect endangered species would be useful because Interior enforces the Endangered Species Act.

His chief competition may be U.S. Rep. Mike Thompson, D-Calif., as Anglo as his name sounds, and a member of the proudly moderate Blue Dog coalition. Thompson got the endorsement of hunters and fishermen.

Obama told Field & Stream magazine that he would appoint a sportsman or sportswoman to head Interior.

To put it diplomatically, Grijalva champions the environment more than he enjoys it.

Still, Grijalva seems the darling of the environmental lobby eager for big change.

Business and conservative groups may take aim at Grijalva during confirmation.

On immigration issues, Grijalva has been an outspoken critic of the no-amnesty crowd, once calling their more strident members “cockroaches.”

That’s the kind of line that can come back to haunt.

The word extremist could get tossed around to describe Grijalva. He compromises when he must but prefers conquest to consensus.

The Clinton Administration’s early efforts to tighten mining laws, restrict timber harvests and raise grazing fees damaged the Democratic “brand” in the West for more than a decade.

Before the Nov. 4 election, Grijalva acknowledged the need for including a wider range of voices in future discussions. He also argued that a changing West reflected a new willingness for more rigorous environmental standards.

He may be about to personally find out his prediction’s veracity.

POSSIBLE CANDIDATES IF VACANCY OCCURS

BLAKE MORLOCK

bmorlock@tucsoncitizen.com

A number of southern Arizonans might consider a run for Congress should U.S. Rep. Raúl Grijalva get the job of running the Interior Department. Candidates need not live in the 7th Congressional District.

Democrats hold a two to one edge in voter registration in the district.

DEMOCRATS

• Supervisor Richard Elías

Pros: Solid backing from environmental, neighborhood and social justice groups. Close ties to Grijalva and allies.

Cons: Unproven as a campaigner because he’s never been opposed.

• Tucson City Councilwoman Nina Trasoff

Pros: Former TV news anchor with some name ID, access to money and campaign experience. Also has neighborhood ties.

Cons: Little recent exposure on the pivotal South Side.

• State Sen.-elect Linda Lopez

Pros: She’s been elected five times to the Legislature and could attract the support of women’s groups.

Cons: State lawmakers don’t have the name recognition as other local officials.

• Supervisor Ramón Valadez

Pros: Young but experienced heir to Dan Eckstrom’s South Tucson base.

Cons: Would have to demonstrate independence from Eckstrom, while tapping his network.

• State Sen. Paula Aboud

Pros: Tough and scrappy campaigner who knows grass roots politics.

Cons: Her legislative district – the 28th – includes only 14 of CD7′s 261 precincts.

• State Rep. Steve Farley

Pros: Savvy upstart with a lot of friends in environmental and neighborhood constituencies vital to local Democratic politics.

Cons: He’s served only one term in the Legislature and is also from the 28th district – with only 14 of CD7′s 261 precincts.

• Nogales Mayor Octavio Garcia Von Borstel

Pros: New mayor of Nogales, with a distinct power base and liberal credibility as an anti-border wall crusader.

Cons: It’s a pretty small power base and he would have little time to introduce himself to district voters. Has had union problems.

• Yuma Union High School Governing Board member Charlene Fernandez

Pros: A leader of the Arizona Democratic Party with her own Yuma base.

Cons: Would need a crowded Pima County field and a desire to run.

REPUBLICANS

• Joe Sweeney

Pros: He’s proficient at getting his name on the ballot. He always runs.

Cons: His own party rejects his anti-Latino screed. He never wins.

• Jennifer Burns

Pros: In a good Republican year, the scary-smart Avra Valley moderate could knock off a weak Democrat.

Cons: This is not a good Republican year.

BLAKE MORLOCK

7th Congressional District

Voter registration:

146,000 Democrats

67,000 Republicans

93,000 independent and unaffiliated

Signatures needed to get on primary ballot:

Democrats: 730

Republicans: 381

Libertarians: 10

Greens: 3

Citizen Staff Writer
Autopsy to be performed

BLAKE MORLOCK

bmorlock@tucsoncitizen.com

A 79-year-old Tucson man was found dead in a Northwest Side pool Friday.

Pinkus Eisenberg was found floating facedown in the pool at 7:30 a.m. by a person who tried to pull him from the pool at an apartment complex at 11 E. Orange Grove Road.

The person called rescue crews, who were unable to revive him, said Katy Heiden, spokeswoman for the Northwest Fire District.

Eisenberg was fully clothed and a cane was found nearby, Heiden said.

The cause of death won’t be known for certain until an autopsy is conducted, Heiden said.

Pima County Sheriff’s Department investigators have initially ruled the death an accident, said sheriff’s spokeswoman Deputy Dawn Barkman.

Citizen Staff Writer

BLAKE MORLOCK

bmorlock@tucsoncitizen.com

Requests for tickets to Barack Obama’s inauguration have vastly outstripped the state’s House and Senate delegations’ capacity to deliver the sought-after passes to witness history.

The only way to get a ticket to the West Front of the Capitol is through a member of Congress but both of Arizona’s U.S. senators have stopped taking requests.

Sen. Jon Kyl will take requests for a waiting list but his office is taking a first come, first served approach, as is Sen. John McCain.

Senators expect to get about 350 tickets and representatives are limited to 198 apiece.

U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords’ office has received more than 500 requests and her staff is planning a lottery to decide who scores ticket.

“How that lottery will work has not been determined,” said Giffords spokesman C.J. Karamargin.

Giffords has set a Sunday deadline for requests, which her office is asking be e-mailed to: az08schedule@mail.house.gov.

Requests should include name of requester; e-mail address; mailing address; contact phone in Arizona; contact phone while in Washington, D.C.; and number of tickets requested.

The winners must pick up their tickets in Washington.

U.S. Rep. Raúl Grijalva’s office will take requests over the phone at 622-6788.

No deadline had been established as of Wednesday.

“It’s obvious that people in Arizona are excited about this upcoming historic event,” Karamargin said.

Those without tickets but who plan to be in Washington anyway can watch on outdoor television monitors being set up on the National Mall.

Citizen Staff Writer
IN BRIEF

The Giving Tree Outreach Program will host a free Thanksgiving dinner for the homeless, people in need or for those alone on the holiday.

The group holds the dinner every year and typically serves more than 400 people, said Libby Wright, director and founding member of The Giving Tree.

Dinner will be served at 4 p.m. Thursday on the vacant lot next to the Palm Court Inn, 4425 E. 22nd St.

The faith-based group needs more supplies to make the dinner work, Wright said.

“We really need canned goods, grocery and department store gift cards, and volunteers to bring prepared food for our Thanksgiving meal, and again on Christmas,” Wright said.

Donations are tax-deductible and can be dropped off at The Giving Tree’s office, 4888 E. Broadway, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Monday through Saturday, or call 320-5437 for more information.

BLAKE MORLOCK

bmorlock@tucsoncitizen.com

Citizen Staff Writer

BLAKE MORLOCK

bmorlock@tucsoncitizen.com

Pima County voters crossed party lines and showed an independent streak in voting booths Nov. 4, the official precinct-by-precinct canvass of votes shows.

In state Legislative District 26 on the Northwest Side, voters sent stalwart conservative Republican Al Melvin to the state Senate and liberal Nancy Young Wright to the state House of Representatives.

Voters in precincts across Congressional District 8 picked John McCain for president but sent Gabrielle Giffords, a Democrat, back to Congress for a second term.

And in an election that was about change, voters here stayed the same.

Melvin’s victory means he will take over what had been a Democratic seat. It was the only partisan switch county voters chose to make in what was a Democratic year across the country.

McCain fared no worse here than George W. Bush in 2004. Both lost by a 52-46 margin in Pima County.

But Giffords appears to have solidified her support among voters in the Northwest Side and in the lower Catalina foothills.

She beat Republican state Sen. Tim Bee in Pima County by the same 14-point margin she enjoyed in 2006 over Republican Randy Graf.

It’s what Giffords’ campaign counted on as it planned her re-election effort.

“The voters of (Congressional District) 8 vote for the person,” said Giffords campaign manager Zach Wineburg. “People in the district split their vote all over the place.”

More than 1 in 4 voters in Pima County do not belong to either major party and those were the people that Giffords went after, Wineburg said.

That’s why her campaign poured resources into the independent-minded precincts of District 26, which covers the eastern half of Marana, all of Oro Valley and the western half of the Catalina foothills.

Obama carried just one Northwest Side precinct north of Ina Road. Giffords won 44.

She also outperformed the top of the ticket in the foothills and on the East Side of Tucson.

Pima County Republican Party Chairwoman Judi White said Giffords did a good job of establishing her image with voters.

“She did a good job of selling herself as a moderate,” White said. “Even though she voted most of the time with Nancy Pelosi,” the Democratic speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Independent voters tend to vote for things they like about the person, rather than choose candidates based on a menu of issues, said Republican pollster Margaret Kenski.

And Giffords had some star power.

“She’s been in Congress for two years and she’s been highly visible,” she said. “When you ask people what they know about (Giffords), they say she’s married to an astronaut.”

That worked for Giffords, Kenski said.

She said future efforts to oust Giffords would be “an uphill battle,” in part because she has proved to be a Herculean fundraiser, raking in more than $3 million for her first re-election bid. And she still has $700,000 left over for the 2010 campaign.

“You practically need to find someone who can self-finance a race,” Kenski said.

But Democrats did not rule the day in Pima County, despite Giffords’ success.

She shared victories with Republicans Melvin and incoming state Rep. Vic Williams in District 26. Frank Antenori and David Gowan cruised to wins in Legislative District 30, encompassing the far East Side and Green Valley.

Federal races and gubernatorial battles tend to reflect voters’ studied preferences, but they decide down-ticket races by either party affiliation or name recognition, Kenski said.

That helped political opposites Young Wright and Melvin score wins from the same batch of voters in District 26, Kenski said.

Young Wright had been active in Northwest Side politics for years and Melvin had run unsuccessfully in 2006.

“You can break the tendency to vote party line when voters don’t know anything else about you by having a huge campaign budget or having name recognition,” Kenski said.

Melvin belonged to the right party. Young Wright had name recognition. Giffords had the budget to sell herself and sculpt her message.

Also, the Pima County Democratic Party devoted time and effort to the usually hostile Northwest Side, said county Democratic Party Chairman Vince Rabago.

“When you look at it geographically, it helps to have Democrats working together in certain areas,” Rabago said.

However, Rabago said he was disappointed the Republicans picked up seats in the state Legislature, when Democrats thought they could take back one or both houses.

“It seems like there were McCain coattails,” Rabago said. “The race seemed to tighten in the last days of the campaign and that drove out Republicans to the polls who would have stayed home otherwise.”

The tightening race did not inspire Democrats the same way, Rabago said.

More maps

Page 4A

TUSD override

East and West

sides against it

County turnout

Some precincts were above 90%

Pres. vote

Inner-city voters

deliver for Obama

Registration

Balloting mostly mirrors voter counts

Prop. 102

Foothills, core of

city vote it down

Citizen Staff Writer

BLAKE MORLOCK

bmorlock@tucsoncitizen.com

Arizona Senate President Tim Bee conceded defeat Wednesday in his effort to unseat U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords in the 8th Congressional District of southern Arizona.

The Associated Press declared Giffords, a first-term Democrat, the winner by 11 p.m. Tuesday night, but Bee left a GOP gathering without comment about the election.

Wednesday, he congratulated Giffords on her 12-point victory.

“Congresswoman Giffords ran a strong campaign and we wish her well in representing us in Congress,” Bee said. He thanked his campaign workers and volunteers. “I’m proud of our supporters,” Bee said. “We fought a fight worth fighting.”

Citizen Staff Writer

BLAKE MORLOCK

bmorlock@tucsoncitizen.com

Democrats swept to a solid national victory but in Arizona conservatives solidified their grip on the Legislature in a way that almost guarantees a series of showdowns with Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano.

If she stays in the job.

Republicans picked up two seats in the state House of Representatives and another seat in the Senate in a year Democrats thought they could take the four seats necessary to at least win control of the House.

Southern Arizona also lost clout in 2008. Senate President Tim Bee, R-Tucson, was forced out by term limits and will be replaced by Sen. Bob Burns, R-Phoenix, as the head of the Senate.

House Minority Leader Phil Lopes was ousted Wednesday in favor of Phoenix Democrat David Lujan.

Napolitano, meanwhile, will join President-elect Barack Obama’s transition team, and that could lead to a cabinet appointment. If Napolitano takes a job in Washington, the governorship would fall to conservative Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer.

Brewer, House Speaker Jim Weiers and Senate President Bob Burns would put the state under a troika of budget-cutting conservatives.

“It would be a disaster for the state,” said state Rep. Steve Farley, D-Tucson. “I don’t see our universities surviving. ”

Conservatives are more than ready for Napolitano to get a promotion up and out of the way.

“If she needs a drive to the airport, I’ll be glad to give her a ride,” said newly elected conservative Sen. Al Melvin.

Melvin ran as a conservative and knocked off moderate Republican Pete Hershberger in Legislative District 26 in the primary election, then took out Democrat Cheryl Cage on Tuesday in the Northwest Side district.

Hershberger and a handful of other Republicans who forsook confrontation to work with Napolitano will no longer be available to her, Melvin said.

“We have clear conservative majorities in the Senate and the House,” Melvin said. “We have a couple weak individuals. They are insignificant because we got them outnumbered.”

Republican Frank Antenori, who was elected to the House in District 30, said GOP gains mean a stronger negotiating position on all issues, especially the budget. Last year, Napolitano managed to get a few Republicans to agree to a budget compromise. This year’s budget was passed with the votes of every Democrat and four or five moderate Republicans in each chamber.

“She won’t be able to draw a line in the sand a foot from her feet and force us to come all the way over to cross it,” Antenori said. “If she wants to legitimately meet us in the middle, OK.”

But even with gains, the GOP will have to negotiate, said Republican Jonathan Paton, who moves from the House to the Senate representing District 30, which takes in the East Side and down to Green Valley.

“We don’t have a veto-proof majority, so we’re going to have to work with the governor,” Paton said.

Democrats in 2006 picked up six seats in the House to narrow the GOP majority to 33-27. In 2008, Democrats thought they had the money and organization to finish the job.

“It’s pretty amazing that it didn’t work,” said Napolitano spokeswoman Jeanine L’Ecuyer. “You do have to look at the structural issues, like how legislative districts are drawn.”

The districts tend to be designed to protect incumbents, which makes it hard for a general election challenger to win.

Voter turnout also may have played a role. Statewide turnout appears to have been down, with some ballots not yet counted.

In Pima County, voter turnout will fall at least 13 percent short of the 2004 election.

The figures suggest Democrats did not turn out the vote like they did four years ago, despite raising much more money than Republicans and making the ground organization a priority.

Arizona Democrats did manage to re-elect U.S. Reps. Harry Mitchell and Gabrielle Giffords from formerly Republican congressional districts, get Ann Kirkpatrick elected to Congress and pick up at least two seats on the Arizona Corporation Commission.

The results foretell stronger years to come, said Democratic Party Executive Director Maria Weeg.

“I am proud of the organization. We build every cycle. We learn more every cycle,” she said.

Citizen Staff Writer B. Poole contributed to this article.

Citizen Staff Writer
ELECTION 2008

BLAKE MORLOCK

bmorlock@tucsoncitizen.com

The more the national political landscape changed Tuesday, the more Arizona stayed the same.

And the state still faces a budget deficit for fiscal 2009, which ends June 30, that could be as big as $1 billion.

Democrats failed to gain the three seats needed to win the state House of Representatives. Early Wednesday, it appeared they had lost two seats in the House, though the Senate breakdown did not change.

Gov. Janet Napolitano and a new Legislature, including a half-dozen freshly minted lawmakers from Pima County, must tackle the budget immediately, said state Rep. Jonathan Paton, who won a seat in the state Senate in District 30.

“That’s the first order of business,” Paton said after cruising to a victory over former Washington state lawmaker Georgette Valle.

Paton prefers an everybody-hurts-a-little approach that spares major cuts to any single program.

State Rep. Nancy Young Wright wants to avoid an across-the-board approach.

The Democrat vows to work across party lines but wants to protect education and programs that help at-risk kids and struggling seniors.

“We need to get through this in a sensible way,” she said.

Young Wright was leading for one of the two seats in Legislative District 26′s tough four-way battle. Close behind her are Republicans Vic Williams, with 36,899 votes, and Marilyn Zerull, with 35,954. Less than 1,000 votes separates first from third with more than 124,000 votes cast in the district. The fight may not be decided for days, as county officials verify and count thousands of provisional and early ballots.

Republican Al Melvin edged past Democrat Cheryl Cage in the District 26 state Senate race. Melvin won 39,547 votes – 50.7 percent – to Cage’s 38,420 – 49.3 percent – in the district that wraps around Tucson’s North and Northwest sides and extends into Pinal County.

On the South Side, in Legislative District 29, Democrats Matt Heinz and Daniel Patterson each scored a third of the popular vote and held double-digit leads over Republican Pat Fleming and Juan Ciscomani; Democratic state Rep. Linda Lopez ran unopposed for the district’s Senate seat. Midtown’s 28th District saw Democratic Reps. Steve Farley and David Bradley run unopposed, as did Sen. Paula Aboud.

State House Minority Leader Phil Lopes and Rep. Olivia Cajero Bedford, both Democrats, won easily in the West Side’s 27th District.

Also, in the 30th District, Republicans Frank Antenori and David Gowan survived a surprisingly tough challenge from Democrat Andrea Dalessandro. The district is heavily Republican but Dalessandro was within 3 percentage points.

Antenori blamed the close results on a big-dollar blitz by Democrats.

“It’s not surprising with the amount of money that was spent in an effort to defeat me and Mr. Gowan – particularly me – that it was such a close election,” Antenori said.

Looking ahead to the Legislative session, Antenori also called the budget the top priority.

“We’re going to balance this budget,” Antenori said.

“That is the No. 1 priority.”

Citizen Staff Writers Carli Brosseau and Eric Sagara contributed to this article.

Citizen Staff Writer
ELECTION 2008

BLAKE MORLOCK

bmorlock@tucsoncitizen.com

Southern Arizona on Tuesday sent two Democrats back to Congress to work with President-elect Barack Obama on an economy sliding toward what could be a deep recession.

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords easily beat her old schoolmate, state Senate President Tim Bee, in her first re-election bid.

Democrat Raúl Grijalva returns to the House of Representatives for a fourth term, easily beating serial candidate and Republican Joe Sweeney.

“The most important thing is getting the economy back on track,” Giffords said.

Congress may be called back into session to work on an economic stimulus package before the next slate of representatives and senators is sworn into office.

Another round of tax rebates may be in the offing.

Grijalva said Congress’ next job is to put the economy, plus the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, on secure footing.

Congress and the incoming Obama administration will at least be working on the same page, he said days before the election.

“It will be good to have a president we don’t have to fight with but can work with,” Grijalva said.

At the beginning of the election cycle, Giffords appeared to face stiff competition from Bee. However, she won by slightly more than her 12-point margin in 2006 against Randy Graf. Graf was thought to be a much weaker candidate than Bee, who had solid Republican support in a district where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats.

President Bush made a fundraising trip to Tucson for Bee and hauled in more than $500,000 in a single day.

It wasn’t enough as Giffords’ cash-raising effort beat Bee by nearly 2 to 1.

“I’m pleased to have won by a larger margin than two years ago,” Giffords said after she learned the race had been called for her. “I don’t think it was all that close of a race.”

Bee did not concede and left a morose gathering at the Manning House downtown without talking to the media.

He said earlier that some uncounted Republican ballots might tilt the election his way.

Giffords developed a record as one of the most centrist members of Congress and plans to continue to work like that in her second term.

“Everything I do, I try to do with a bipartisan effort. These problems transcend partisan politics,” Giffords said. “For me, it is just a continuation.”

For many election cycles, the idea of a Democratic election night party was a contradiction in terms. The party tended to lose more than it won.

But Tuesday, the celebration had more than a bit of sizzle as a joyous eruption lasted 10 minutes past the race being called for Obama.

Now, partisans including former Pima County Democratic Party Chairman Paul Eckerstrom want to see results.

“We need very practical solutions to the fix we are in,” Eckerstrom said. “It means prioritizing. If we do spend money, we spend money that has long-term implications. Not on tax rebates that have no lasting effect.”

Eckerstrom was a convention delegate for Obama in Denver and helped his campaign organize in Texas during the primary.

He predicted that Arizona would in four years follow the mountain West states of Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada into national contention.

Arizona Sen. John McCain’s presence on top of the ballot kept Arizona red.

“We got within the single digits of McCain; that told you a world about how Arizona is changing,” Eckerstrom said.

Pima County Board of Supervisors Chairman Richard Elías expects the new governing majority in Washington to get started, maybe the day after tomorrow. “Party like there’s no tomorrow because there’s work to do tomorrow. In the morning, get a big bowl of menudo because there’s work to do.” Elías said.

Citizen staff writer Carli Brousseau contributed to this article.

Citizen Staff Writer

BLAKE MORLOCK

bmorlock@tucsoncitizen.com

Here’s a thought that can keep a campaign manager up nights: 269 votes cost Al Gore a presidential election.

And in September, Marilyn Zurell beat Trent Humphries by 50 votes in the Arizona House Republican primary in Legislative District 26.

After all the ads, the fundraising, the debates and policy prescriptions, campaigns mean little if a candidate’s supporters don’t get to the polls.

With just days left until the polls close in the 2008 election, campaigns are feverishly trying to find you and get you to vote.

It’s not a scattershot operation; voters today are stalked.

“We’ve been doing voter profile and voter identification stuff for weeks,” said John McCain’s southern Arizona campaign director, Mike Hellon. “You start with a person’s voting history. You make a judgment and then you work the phones like crazy.”

Hellon is a former state Republican Party chairman and a veteran of numerous campaigns.

The first step, he said, is to get voter rolls and cull them for likely McCain supporters. Find them and make sure they vote.

But the effort has gotten more sophisticated in recent years.

“It’s fundamentally the same but the technology and the ability to isolate and further define your targets has dramatically improved,” Hellon said.

What does a likely supporter of a candidate look like? For McCain, it’s a Republican voter with a history of taking the time to cast a ballot.

It also could well be an independent voter who lives in a Republican precinct.

“Independent voters tend to vote like their neighbors,” Hellon said. “So we don’t spend a lot of time on the (heavily Democratic) South Side.”

The voter rolls lead campaigns to the person but then it’s a matter of making the sale and seeing to it that the person gets to the polls.

A quarter-century ago, John Kromko was a young state lawmaker with a knowledge of emerging computer technology. He figured out how to move voter information from magnetic tape to a personal computer.

Then, with a military surplus database program, he was able to cross-reference various data fields.

Kromko has since been a fixture in local politics but that technological edge allowed him to slice and dice the electorate.

“I could find all the nurses registered independent in a given district,” Kromko said, by way of example. “You could send different messages to different people.”

It meant that he no longer had to blindly send out direct mail and risk telling a bunch of firearm aficionados how he favored stricter gun control.

“People would just send out mass mailings, put their stand on it and alienate a bunch of people,” Kromko said. “You could end up losing more support than you pick up.”

The technology caught on, but not with Kromko’s Democratic Party. He said the Republicans ran with it and targeted voters much better than Democrats.

The high-water mark for this kind of operation came in George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign.

His strategists used any bit of information they could find, from voting rolls to magazine subscriptions, to tailor a message to likely voters. Then they contacted those voters and formed social networks among the supporters to get out the vote.

Bush’s vote total increased from 50 million in 2000 to 62 million in 2008.

But the Bush camp was flush with cash that the McCain camp does not have.

“We have not had the resources to do as much of that as we might want,” Hellon said.

Gathering information matters even in races that aren’t national and even if it’s not in a database.

Matt Heinz learned in his first run for the state House of Representatives in 2006, which he lost, how important identifying voters could be.

So in 2008, unlike his opponents in a crowded Legislative District 29 Democratic primary, Heinz didn’t run television ads. Instead, he walked neighborhoods.

He mapped out the district, which covers much of the south part of Tucson, and looked for the only voters who mattered to him.

He knew who voted in the 2006 primary and especially targeted the voters who asked for early ballots in the 2008 primary election.

“That was my whole universe for a while,” Heinz said. “That was my walk list.”

After that, the information that mattered was the information he collected.

Heinz not only talked to voters but also followed up with answers to questions voters had about issues. They would get a postcard with a handwritten note thanking them for taking the time to talk to him.

He ended up finishing first in a seven-way primary – ahead of his opponents who went with television ads.

In 2006, Gabrielle Giffords’ campaign for Congress in the 8th District mobilized a vast network of supporters. Today, her re-election campaign against state Senate President Tim Bee counts on her continued efforts to cultivate that support in virtually all precincts.

Cut up Pima County and it’s easy to find a liberal Massachusetts around the University of Arizona, a conservative Utah in Green Valley and, more important, the swing states.

Democratic-leaning but independent-minded neighborhoods on the East Side resemble the battleground of Pennsylvania. Conservative ticket-splitters along Ina Road look a lot like the voters that make Ohio a toss-up.

To win, campaigns must turn out the voter base and identify reachable independent voters and the ones from the other party who might cross over.

Republicans outnumber Democrats in Giffords’ district. Her re-election depends on her campaign finding the independent voters and the Republicans who might cross party lines.

“Independents are the key to winning the district,” said Giffords’ campaign manager, Zach Wineburg.

He didn’t give away too many campaign secrets but did talk about how Giffords’ survival depends on mobilizing networks of businesspeople, retirees and even folks with military ties.

The campaign also has established neighborhood leaders to act as precinct captains and get word out.

Bee’s campaign did not respond to requests for interviews but at an event last week, the Republican challenger didn’t hedge about what would turn the election.

It wasn’t ads or money.

“It’s all about voter turnout right now,” Bee said. “We have to get our people to the polls.”

In a district where Republican registration outstrips Democrats by 38 percent to 35 percent, getting the people to show up at the polls may be enough to send him to Congress, if Giffords doesn’t steal those independents along Ina Road.

More on the election

For all of our election coverage, go to tucson citizen.com/ss/election.

Live election coverage

For continuously updated results, stories and photos on Election Day and the day after, go to tucsoncitizen.com.

Citizen Staff Writer
FROM OUR BLOGS

U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords is a cover girl this month in the latest issue of Military Spouse magazine.

Giffords is the only member of Congress married to an active-duty service member, U.S. Navy Cmdr. Mark Kelly. He’s on leave to NASA, where he commands space shuttle missions.

Giffords graces the cover in jeans and a button-down shirt.

The story promoted next to her photo? “Healthy in bed. Tips for when he returns home.”

Giffords is not the subject of that story. She merely is interviewed, as are Cindy McCain and Michelle Obama.

BLAKE MORLOCK

• For more blogs, go to www.tucson citizen.com/blog.

Citizen Staff Writer

BLAKE MORLOCK

bmorlock@tucsoncitizen.com

A pair of polls show John McCain’s hold on Arizona loosening.

Rasmussen Reports surveyed 500 likely Arizona voters Sunday and found McCain leading Democrat Barack Obama by 51 percent to 45 percent. McCain’s lead had been 21 points in a Sept. 29 Rasmussen poll of Arizona voters.

The Democratic organization Project New West polled 600 registered voters from Oct. 23 to 25 and found McCain leading 48 percent to 44 percent. The poll had a margin of error of 4 points. The same group found McCain had a 14-point lead in mid-September.

Two political Web sites, Real Clear Politics and Pollster.com, have moved Arizona from a solid McCain state, to one leaning his way.

McCain’s lead may be shrinking but his prospects are unchanged, said McCain’s southern Arizona campaign director, Mike Hellon.

“He’s going to carry Arizona,” Hellon said. He said he’s seen polls that put McCain eight to 10 points up, conceding “that’s a lot closer than we would like it to be” but a comfortable margin.

Obama has gained despite his campaign not buying any ads or sending any direct mail in McCain’s home state.

In Arizona, Obama’s campaign has been limited to volunteers walking neighborhoods and making phone calls, said Kelly Paisley, state director of Obama for America.

“Our strategy has been a grass-roots one since the beginning,” Paisley said. “This shows that Sen. Obama’s message of changing is sinking in with voters who know best how to judge John McCain.”

The polls had not inspired changes in strategy as of Monday afternoon but Paisley said a visit by Obama or Biden would be nice.

“The ticket is welcome to come to Arizona any time,” Paisley said.

Arizona has voted Democratic once (for Bill Clinton in 1996) since 1948. No one has been elected president while losing his home state since Woodrow Wilson was re-elected in 1916 but did not carry New Jersey.

Republican dominance in the Mountain West has faded. Polls show Obama leading in Colorado and New Mexico, and in a dead heat in Nevada and Montana.

Arizona had been considered a potential swing state until McCain won the Republican nomination.

The Rasmussen poll shows McCain leading Obama on handling the economy (52 to 44 percent) and national security (56-40). But Obama leads on both issues among the state’s unaffiliated voters by margins of 52-39 and 49-45, respectively.

Citizen Staff Writer

BLAKE MORLOCK

bmorlock@tucsoncitizen.com

The Arizona Lottery surpassed its revenue forecasts in the first quarter of the first year that it is expected to shoulder a larger load of the state budget.

The state budget for fiscal 2009, which began July 1, freed the lottery to pay out more money and do more to market popular games with the expectation that revenue would pay for $1 billion in university construction over the next five years.

Lottery revenues in July and August were down 13 percent from the same months in 2007 but the lottery is still on pace to raise more than $570 million by June 30, said Arizona Lottery Director Art Macias.

That would be a 22 percent increase over a record $472 million take in fiscal 2008.

Republicans are dubious that the lottery can generate the cash needed in a bad economy.

“The lottery is going to be shouldering a lot of burden,” said Barrett Marson, a spokesman for Republicans in the state House of Representatives. “But the fact is that the revenues are down this year.”

Last year a $300 million Powerball prize drove sales exceptionally high during the summer, Macias said.

The lottery generated $107.1 million from July to September after setting a goal of $104.1 million. The lottery’s goal is to raise $573 million through June 30. Officials anticipate$172 million will be raised from January to March because winter visitors will be playing and the state will be aggressively marketing the lottery for the first time.

“We have a 52-week marketing campaign,” Macias said. “We’re looking at being ‘in-market’ for the rest of the year.”

For instance, the lottery has done no advertising on Scratchers tickets, which account for 53 percent of sales.

State lawmakers concerned about the social implications of gambling have kept the lottery on a short leash.

Letting the state raise more money through play-to-win games was seen as a potential moneymaker in a tight budget year.

Citizen Staff Writer

BLAKE MORLOCK

bmorlock@tucsoncitizen.com

Two political opponents held a joint news conference Tuesday and promised to promote legislation that would apply domestic violence laws to dating relationships.

State Rep. Jonathan Paton promised that if he is elected to the state Senate, he will introduce a bill that would give judges the authority to issue orders of protection in abuse cases involving people who are dating.

Paton, a Republican, invited his Democratic opponent, Georgette Valle, to the news conference announcing his support of the bill. Valle promised to introduce the same bill if elected.

If one person in a dating relationship physically abuses the other person, the abuser is subject to assault laws.

If the state’s domestic violence law applied to dating relationships, a court could issue an order of protection upon a third offense, when the crime becomes a felony, Paton said.

“What makes domestic violence different is that it’s a pattern over time,” Paton said. “If someone gets into a bar fight, that’s one incident and not a pattern.”

Paton has been a critic of how Child Protective Services failed to protect several children in the system and said his work on that issue led him to realize that women needed protection from boyfriends as much as spouses.

“It’s why it’s so important to characterize domestic violence as a felony in this state,” he said.

A similar bill had been introduced by state Reps. Pete Hershberger, R-Tucson, and Rebecca Rios, D-Hayden, but did not get a hearing in the House Judiciary Committee.

Bobbi Sudberry’s 17-year-old daughter, Kaitlyn, was killed in January by her estranged boyfriend, Daniel Byrd, who killed himself.

Sudberry drove from Phoenix to appear at the news conference and endorse Paton’s legislation.

Kaitlyn Sudberry’s death followed several instances of physical abuse, Bobbi Sudberry said.

An order of protection might have kept her daughter alive, she said.

“The authorities would have been able to pursue (Byrd) a little stronger,” Sudberry said.