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Bordow’s reaction: AIA and power rankings mess | Power rankings formula flawed?
AIA to recommend members look at formula | Coach: System ‘fundamentally flawed’

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Yes, a mistake was made when the formula was approved and implemented in the fall of 2010. But it wasn’t as if AIA executive director Harold Slemmer and associate executive director Chuck Schmidt sat in a dark room somewhere and tried to come up with flawed plan.

The formula was drawn up by the Power Rankings Committee, comprised of athletic directors from throughout the state. Their intentions were good; the execution, as we know now, wasn’t.

If you want more detail on the flaw itself, check out Jose Garcia’s blog: AIA power rankings formula flawed?

What I will criticize the AIA for is its response to the controversy. When the East Valley Tribune broke the story and reported the findings a little more than a week ago, the AIA flatly denied there was an error in the formula and said it was working as it was intended.

Well, I can intend two plus two to equal five. That doesn’t make it right.

Then, Brian Bolitho, the Arizona Interscholastic Association’s director of business media, posted a blog that defended the Power Rankings Committee’s methodology.

It wasn’t until Monday, after a math professor at Arizona State University verified the flaw first discovered by a Gilbert engineer, that the AIA finally gave in and admitted, yes, the formula might unfairly reward teams who played extra games.

“We (the AIA) will recommend that we need to look at it (power ranking formula) based on the ton of scrutiny that has been raised,” Schmidt said. “We’ll ask our membership if it needs to be changed, and we’ll get the thoughts from the executive board to see if it needs to be tweaked.”

Fine. But what took so long?

Look, I understand the AIA gets it from all sides – small schools, big schools, rural schools, metro schools, fans, coaches, administrators and, yes the media – so it’s not going to immediately give credence to every complaint brought to its front door.

But when first presented with the evidence, why couldn’t the AIA simply say this: “It’s been brought to our attention that there might be a flaw in the power points formula. We’ll look into it. If so, we regret the error and will fix it as quickly as possible.”

Instead, the AIA denied, denied and denied until it was faced with insurmountable proof.

The action – or reaction – is more proof that the AIA needs a public relations crisis counselor. It does the organization no good when its top officials are so thin-skinned that they can’t take criticism or so arrogant that they refuse to believe they might have done wrong.

I don’t agree with some coaches or administrators who tell me that both Slemmer and Schmidt need to go. And I believe that, in their hearts, they want what’s best for Arizona high school athletes.

But they need to get off their thrones and listen to the people.

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Profile: Kevin Kolb | Analysis: Cards have steep climb for Peyton Manning

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“I know how the NFL works,” Kolb said, “anything is possible. I just try to keep my mind clear and do what I can on my end. I plan on having a great year and being a Cardinal for a long time.”

Kolb is due a $7 million bonus if he’s on the roster March 17, and said “every indication on my end shows me that I’ll be there.”

Manning is due a $28 million option bonus on March 8, but the Colts are unlikely to pay it, according to reports. Manning, who missed last season because of a neck problem, still has weakness in his right arm, and the Colts are expected to select quarterback Andrew Luck with the first pick in the draft.

Almost every team with an unsettled situation at quarterback, including the Cardinals, has been reported to have interest in Manning.

Kolb’s first season with the Cardinals was hampered by a foot injury and concussion. He missed four games because of the foot and the last three games of the season with the concussion.

“I feel good,” Kolb said. “I’d say it took three to four weeks after the season was over to not have any symptoms. Once my mind cleared, I got back to working out.”

Kolb has suffered concussions in each of the past two seasons. Even though it took him close to seven weeks to be free of symptoms from the last concussion, Kolb said he’s not worried about suffering another.

“If it happens, it happens,” he said. “I’ll deal with it.”

Kolb returned to his Texas home after the season, and will be in Arizona whenever off-season workouts begin. He’s been in touch with members of the coaching staff, including John McNulty, who moved from receivers coach to quarterbacks coach this off-season.

“I’m excited about it,” Kolb said. “I like him as a person and a coach and how he handles things. I think he’ll push me to another level.

“We visited shortly and we touched on a variety of things. You make adjustments every year. There are a few things we’re talking would that would better our situation as an offense. He has a good feel for what kind of player I am, as well.”

Taurasi is a two-time Olympic gold medalist as are finalists Sue Bird and Tamika Catchings. Taurasi and Dupree were on the U.S. 2010 World Championships that won a gold medal and qualified for the 2012 Olympics.

The finalists include Brittney Griner of No. 1-ranked Baylor. All others are WNBA players.
Other finalists are Jayne Appel (San Antonio Silver Stars), Seimone Augustus (Minnesota Lynx), Bird (Seattle Storm), Rebekkah Brunson (Minnesota Lynx), Swin Cash (Chicago Sky), Catchings (Indiana Fever), Tina Charles (Connecticut Sun), Sylvia Fowles (Chicago Sky), Lindsey Harding (Atlanta Dream), Asjha Jones (Connecticut Sun), Kara Lawson (Connecticut Sun), Angel McCoughtry (Atlanta Dream), Renee Montgomery (Connecticut Sun), Maya Moore (Minnesota Lynx), Candace Parker (Los Angeles Sparks), Cappie Pondexter (New York Liberty), Lindsay Whalen (Minnesota Lynx) and Sophia Young (San Antonio Silver Stars).

The final Olympics roster will have 12 players.

With that, here is an updated version of my NFL Mock Draft. I’ll be updating it periodically between now and the draft itself. My picks are based on observations, team needs, scouting services and various NFL sources:

Look back: McManaman’s NFL mock draft 2012 – 1st edition

Pick	Team	Player	Pos. Ht. Wt.	College
1	Indianapolis Colts	Andrew Luck	QB 6-4 235	Stanford
Comment: No change here and it’s doubtful it will change at all between now and the draft, barring an injury or mishap to Luck. The Colts appear to be on the verge of letting Peyton Manning go as a free agent and Luck is the consensus No. 1 choice to replace him. Where will Manning end up? We should know soon enough.
2	St. Louis Rams	Justin Blackmon	WR 6-1 215	Oklahoma State
Comment: Again, I think the Rams will trade down but still find a way to land Blackmon, who fills an immediate need. The Browns or Redskins likely will spend picks to move up and take Baylor QB Robert Griffin III in this spot. Washington will back off, obviously, if it is able to sign Manning. I don’t see the Browns making a play for Peyton, though. Depending how this trade shakes out – or not – the Rams could also go with the best offensive tackle in the draft and that would be USC’s Matt Kalil.
3	Minnesota Vikings	Matt Kalil	OT 6-7 295	USC
Comment: As I noted in my original Mock Draft, this pick makes absolute sense for the Vikings. Then again, they’ve been known to make some strange moves on the first day of the draft. However, they need an upgrade at tackle and Kalil is by far the best one available this year.
4	Cleveland Browns	Robert Griffin III	QB 6-2 220	Baylor
Comment: No change, but again, it may take a trade for the Browns to get Griffin. Then again, it may not. The Rams won’t draft a quarterback, as they have Sam Bradford. And I don’t think the Vikings will give up on Christian Ponder after just one year and making him a first-round pick in 2011. So maybe Griffin does fall to the Browns at No. 4. Either way, Colt McCoy isn’t the answer and the Browns have pretty much made that clear without having to say it.
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Trent Richardson	RB 5-11 224	Alabama
Comment: In my initial Mock Draft, I had the Bucs taking LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne, the best defensive back in the draft. They still may take him here at No. 5, but as I also mentioned, Richardson could be too irresistible to pass. LeGarrette Blount doesn’t provide them enough at running back, especially when it comes to blocking in the passing game. Richardson is the total package.
6	Washington Redskins	Riley Reiff	OT 6-6 300	Iowa
Comment: If the Redskins can land Manning or find another quarterback somewhere else (Matt Flynn, perhaps), then I think this pick makes sense. Reiff is a top-notch tackle prospect and it’s a need for Washington. If they can’t work a deal for a new quarterback, then they may have no choice but to draft Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill, which I think would be a reach here. Initially, I had the Redskins taking Alabama cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick, but since I now have LSU’s Morris Claiborne available, too, Claiborne gets the edge if the Redskins want a cornerback.
7	Jacksonville Jaguars	Quinton Coples	DE 6-6 285	North Carolina
Comment: As I noted before, there’s a chance Jacksonville may trade down, as one of their biggest needs is a wide receiver and they might be able to get South Carolina’s Alshon Jeffery, Baylor’s Kendall Wright or Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd later in the first round. Coples didn’t have a fantastic senior season, but at 6 feet 8, he’s a beast with a quick enough burst to make a difference if he gets the coaching.
*8	Carolina Panthers	Michael Brockers	DT 6-6 306	LSU
Comment: I originally had the Panthers taking Coples, but now that I have him going to Jacksonville, I think the Panthers will look to solidify their interior defensive line and Brockers grades out the best among the tackles. Penn State’s Devon Still ranks right behind him. Carolina could use a receiver, but I don’t think they’ll take one this high.
*9	Miami Dolphins	Melvin Ingram	DE 6-2 276	South Carolina
Comment: First things first, the Dolphins need to find themselves a starting quarterback. I like Matt Moore, but Miami wants to make a splash and Peyton Manning and Matt Flynn are on their radar. They could also make a trade to move up and select Robert Griffin III. Once they get their QB, there will be rumbling for finding him added protection on the offensive line, but I now see the Dolphins adding a pass rusher and Ingram could be it.
10	Buffalo Bills	Courtney Upshaw	OLB 6-2 265	Alabama
Comment:No change here. Buffalo needs help getting after the quarterback and Upshaw would make perfect sense if that’s the direction they really want to go. He was named MVP in the BCS National Championship Game and his stock could soar higher at the combine. Upshaw fits in with whatever defense the Bills plan to run next year, and it looks like they’re going to go strictly with the 4-3 scheme.
*11	Kansas City Chiefs	Jonathan Martin	OT 6-6 304	Stanford
Comment: Tackle is a huge need for the Chiefs, especially on the right side. Martin would be the ideal choice if he’s still available. Yes, the Cardinals would probably love to see him drop a couple spots to No. 13, but they’ll be fine. There’s a slight chance Kansas City might look at a receiver, but we’ll find out soon enough.
*12	Seattle Seahawks	Devon Still	DT 6-5 310	Penn State
Comment: In my original Mock Draft, I had the Seahawks picking Melvin Ingram, but since he’s now gone to Miami, I can see the Seahawks sticking with the idea of fixing their pass rush and going with Still. He ranks with the best defensive linemen available this year and unless the Seahawks make a play for Robert Griffin III, a pass rusher will be their man. Then again, they could surprise us all and take Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill.
13	Arizona Cardinals	Mike Adams	OT 6-8 320	Ohio State
Comment: Whether they pursue Peyton Manning or stick with Kevin Kolb, the Cardinals’ biggest need is help on the offensive line. If Reiff or Martin are available, one of them likely will be the pick. Adams might seem like a reach to some, but he’s huge and he’s back in first-round territory after an impressive Senior Bowl. His stock is going to rise. I also think he carries more overall value than a guard such as Stanford’s David DeCastro, who seems to be the trendy pick for the Cardinals. That doesn’t mean they won’t take the best player available, mind you, so don’t be shocked if they go for a linebacker or a wide receiver if they have a player rated incredibly high on their board that falls to them at No. 13. Oh, and did you notice I still have LSU corner Morris Claiborne available? Hmm, Claiborne and fellow LSU star Patrick Peterson as cornerstone cornerbacks? It’s doubtful, but it’s interesting.
14	Dallas Cowboys	Morris Claiborne	CB 6-0 185	LSU
Comment:The Cowboys usually always have a surprise for us on draft day, especially in the first round. This time, if they’re lucky, the best cornerback in the draft falls to them at No.14 and wouldn’t that be a surprise? I admit, Claiborne might be long gone by this point, but Dallas needs big-time help in the secondary and cornerback is a position the Cowboys will target. If Claiborne is gone, Alabama’s Dre Kirkpatrick could be the pick.
15	Philadelphia Eagles	Luke Kuechly	ILB 6-3 237	Boston College
Comment: In my initial Mock Draft, I had the Eagles going wide receiver and taking Baylor’s Kendall Wright. Given DeSean Jackson’s contract situation, that still might be the best option. But the more I look at it, the more the Eagles defense needs a serious upgrade at middle linebacker. Kuechly is the best one available in the draft and he offers smarts and leadership qualities in addition to great tackling abilities. Andy Reid doesn’t draft linebackers in the first round, but this is the year he might change his mind. They could address this position in free agency, however, which changes everything.
16	New York Jets	Mark Barron	S 6-2 218	Alabama
Comment: The Jets could go multiple ways with this pick, but I sense them drafting for need and safety is a position where they need an upgrade in the worst way. Barron is the best one available in the entire draft, so this isn’t a reach at all. Then again, things can change drastically depending on what happens in free agency. They could go offensive line here and take Stanford guard David DeCastro or perhaps take a receiver such as Baylor’s Kendall Wright or South Carolina’s Alshon Jeffery.
17	Cincinnati Bengals	Dre Kirkpatrick	CB 6-3 192	Alabama
Comment: The Bengals get this pick from the Raiders as part of their deal to send QB Carson Palmer to Oakland last season. I had them taking Notre Dame wide receiver Michael Floyd here, but as I noted in my original Mock Draft, cornerback is a need and Kirkpatrick is the second-ranked corner in the draft. Nate Clements is getting older and Leon Hall will still be dealing with an Achilles injury. If they don’t take Kirkpatrick but still draft a cornerback here, then it’s Nebraska’s Alfonzo Dennard.
18	San Diego Chargers	Nick Perry	DE 6-3 250	USC
Comment: No change here. The Chargers need some pass-rushing help and Perry could be the answer. There’s an outside chance they take a tight end – Clemson’s Dwayne Allen, perhaps – or maybe go for a safety if a player such as Barron is still on the board. But the defensive front needs an upgrade, so I’m sticking with Perry again.
19	Chicago Bears	Michael Floyd	WR 6-3 224	Notre Dame
Comment: I’m changing the pick for Chicago, largely because in this Mock Draft if I have wide receivers going later in the first round than in my original set of picks. Floyd has the size (6-3) and ability to become Jay Cutler’s favorite target right away. And let’s face it, the Bears have gone far too long without a legitimate No. 1 wideout. South Carolina’s Alshon Jeffery, who is 6-4, is another possibility, as is Baylor’s Kendall Wright, who is 5-10.
20	Tennessee Titans	David DeCastro	G 6-5 310	Stanford
Comment:I had them taking Illinois DE Whitney Mercilus, but given how head coach Mike Munchak has been complaining about the offensive line, DeCastro might be the ideal fit here. He may not be available at No. 20, but if he is, the Titans at least will be tempted to take him. Georgia guard Cordy Glenn might also be intriguing, as he likely can transition to tackle at the pro level.
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Alshon Jeffery	WR 6-4 229	South Carolina
Comment: I already have them addressing their need at cornerback, now it’s time to spend another first-round pick on a wide receiver. Jeffery would give Andy Dalton another top-flight target opposite A.J. Green for years to come. True, the Bengals already have a few young receivers on the roster, but Jeffery would make them all that much better, although he doesn’t have tremendous speed. With the defenses of division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore getting older, an upgraded air attack led by a trio of young stars will go a long way.
22	Cleveland Browns	Zebrie Sanders	OT 6-6 307	Florida State
Comment: Again, I believe Cleveland might trade this pick to the Rams to move up and get Robert Griffin, so keep that in mind. If Griffin falls to them at No. 4 overall, however, they’ll likely use this pick on an offensive lineman and Sanders could be the pick. Originally, I had the Browns picking Virginia CB Chase Minnifield, the son of former Browns four-time Pro Bowl cornerback Frank Minnifield.
23	Detroit Lions	Whitney Mercilus	DE 6-4 265	Illinois
Comment: I’m changing my pick here. Originally, I had the Lions taking Wisconsin center Peter Konz, but the more I hear, the more I tend to think Jim Schwartz will look to bolster his pass rush and take a player such as Mercilus, if he’s available. Kyle Vanden Bosch is nearing the end and fellow DE Cliff Avril could leave as a free agent. I’m hearing Mercilus could be soaring up teams’ draft boards, however.
24	Pittsburgh Steelers	Dont’a Hightower	ILB 6-4 260	Alabama
Comment: No change. The Steelers need an upgrade at linebacker and in the defensive secondary and I’m guessing if they go linebacker, it’s Hightower, who has size and strength and enough speed. If they want a safety, it’s Hightower’s teammate from Alabama, Mark Barron, if he’s still on the board. Pittsburgh doesn’t usually miss in the draft, especially in the first round.
25	Denver Broncos	Janoris Jenkins	CB 5-10 182
Comment: These guys might be the toughest to predict. The Broncos have so many needs and can go in multiple directions here. They need help on the defensive line, at safety, linebacker, running back and even tight end. Jenkins profiles as a potential elite cornerback and that would fill a need as well. He may not be around this long, but some see him slipping because of a couple of issues. Initially, I had Denver taking Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill. A sleeper pick here could be Arizona State ILB Vontaze Burfict, who may or may not be a first-rounder. Oregon running back LaMichael James is another “maybe” pick.
26	Houston Texans	Rueben Randle	WR 6-4 208	LSU
Comment: I still have them taking a wide receiver, but instead of Mohamed Sanu from Rutgers, now it’s Randle. Call it a hunch. The Texans need an upgrade at this position, a player that can complement the great Andre Johnson. There are a handful of decent wideouts for Houston to consider at No. 26 and I’ll be shocked if they go in a different direction. I know this – the Texans’ defense is set. If they upgrade it in the first round, I think it would be a mistake.
27	New England Patriots	Alfonzo Dennard	CB 5-10 205	Nebraska
Comment: The Patriots have two late, first-round picks and they aren’t shy about trading down to acquire even more. That could happen again this year, but at some point, Bill Belichick has to upgrade key components of a defense that ranked near the bottom of the league in yards allowed. A shutdown corner would be nice and Dennard is an option. They also need another safety, which is a possibility here. And let’s not forget that Tom Brady has been beating teams without a real deep threat at wide receiver.
28	Green Bay Packers	Ronnell Lewis	OLB 6-2 244	Oklahoma
Comment: In my first Mock Draft, I had Green Bay taking Alabama S Mark Barron. He’s now off the board, however, so the Packers will look to add to their pass rush by grabbing someone such as Lewis, who would be a great complement to Clay Matthews on the edge. Lewis can play end or outside linebacker and play them both well. North Carolina’s Zach Brown remains an option if Green Bay goes the OLB route. Either way, a defensive player will be the pick here.
29	Baltimore Ravens	Vontaze Burfict	ILB 6-3 250	Arizona State
Comment: Pick change. Originally, I had them taking LSU receiver Rueben Randle, as I still get the sense they want to help give Joe Flacco some more ammunition. Well, Burfict will provide plenty of that on the other side of the ball. As I noted in my first Mock Draft, he is the trendy pick at this spot, but when I heard GM Ozzie Newsome say he wants to find Ray Lewis’ ultimate successor in this draft, I relented and have to figure it’s got to be Burfict. There’s a chance, however, he may slip into the second round.
30	San Francisco 49ers	Mohamed Sanu	WR 6-2 215	Rutgers
Comment: I had them reaching for Iowa State cornerback Leonard Johnson earlier, but it’s becoming pretty clear the 49ers will look for a playmaker on offense in the first round. I think Sanu might be the third-best receiver in the draft and he would give San Francisco some size at the position. My gut tells me Jim Harbaugh might be very tempted to draft Stanford tight end Coby Fleener, who rates as the 24th-best prospect overall, according to Scouts Inc. We shall see.
31	New England Patriots	Zach Brown	OLB 6-2 230	North Carolina
Comment:No change. Again, the Patriots could package these picks to move down or possibly even move up in the first round. If they stand pat, I like the selection of Brown here. They still may roll the dice on a speed receiver, but I’m not sure they’ll gamble on Baylor’s Kendall Wright, who is smallish. New England can fetch a receiver in free agency. The defense needs fixing on multiple fronts, so expect the Patriots to use any early picks on that side of the ball.
32	New York Giants	Dwayne Allen	TE 6-4 255	Clemson
Comment: Pick change. Originally, I had the Giants taking Oregon RB LaMichael James. It was an intriguing pick, too. But when the Giants lost tight ends Jake Ballard and Travis Beckum to torn knee ligaments in the Super Bowl, Allen seemed to make a lot more sense. Giants GM Jerry Reese said both Ballard and Beckum likely will start the season on the physically-unable-to-perform list, so drafting a tight end – or signing one through free agency – becomes a must.

* – Determined by coin flip.

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30. Minnesota Wild. (Previous ranking: 16). Two losses to the 30th-place Columbus Blue Jackets. Since mid-December when the Wild owned the NHL’s best record, the team is 5-15-5. (Points: 58).

29. Carolina Hurricanes. (29). Lost in overtime in their first two games on a three-game road trip. Still sitting at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. (51).

28. Tampa Bay Lightning. (22). In the playoff hunt, but losses to the Kings and Penguins won’t help. (54).

27. Dallas Stars. (18). Three points back of the eighth spot in the West thanks to losses last week to the Coyotes and Kings. (59).

26. Edmonton Oilers. (28). Snuck out an overtime win against the Senators on Saturday. Winger Jordan Eberle has six goals and nine points in his past six games. (49).

25. Columbus Blue Jackets. (30). Return of defenseman James Wisniewski coincided with the team’s second win of the week over the Wild. (38).

24. Chicago Blackhawks. (11). Mired in an eight-game winless skid. (65).

23. Toronto Maple Leafs. (17). Blanked by the Canadiens 5-0 on Saturday. Leafs continue to search for consistency as they barely hang on to the eighth seed in the East. (62).

22. Washington Capitals. (15). Went 1-1-1 last week. The Caps are having trouble keeping leads late in games. (61).

21. New York Islanders. (24). Big win over the Flyers in a shootout on Tuesday and another nail-biter of a victory against the Kings on Saturday in overtime. (54).

20. Buffalo Sabres. (25). Dominated the Bruins 6-0 on Wednesday. That was Ryan Miller’s second shutout in a week. (54).

19. Montreal Canadiens. (26). Enjoying a four-game win streak that has kept the Canadiens’ playoff hopes alive. (55).

18. Ottawa Senators. (14). Emotional win over the Predators on Thursday as defenseman Chris Phillips played in his 1,000th game. Phillips contributed with a pair of goals. (64).

17. Anaheim Ducks. (27). Three wins and a shootout loss to the Red Wings is a very encouraging sign for the Ducks. (53).

16. Winnipeg Jets. (23). Earned four out of a possible six points last week. (58).

15. Colorado Avalanche. (21). On the upswing. 2-1-2 so far in February. (60).

14. Calgary Flames. (20). Huge shootout win over the Canucks on Saturday. Netminder Miikka Kiprusoff earned the 300th win of his career last week. (60).

13. Philadelphia Flyers. (9). Still in a secure playoff spot, but a pair of losses to the Rangers won’t help momentum. (69).

12. Phoenix Coyotes. (19). In the midst of a season-high five-game win streak. Goalie Mike Smith has only allowed six goals during that span. (62).

11. Los Angeles Kings. (13). Beat the Stars 4-2 on Sunday. The Kings continue to beat the teams they should to give themselves more breathing room in the standings. (65).

10. Nashville Predators. (7). Went winless last week but still has a comfortable playoff position. (70).

9. San Jose Sharks. (6). Losses to the Flames and Blues last week enabled the Kings to gain ground. The Sharks only have a one-point lead for top spot in the Pacific Division. (66).

8. Florida Panthers. (12). Continue to be the real deal. Beat the Kings, Devils and Islanders last week. (65).

7. New Jersey Devils. (8). Tight 1-0 win over the Rangers on Tuesday. Martin Brodeur was solid, turning away 30 shots. (66).

6. St. Louis Blues. (10). The Blues continue to roll. They’re 22-1-1 when leading after two periods. (75).

5. Pittsburgh Penguins. (4). Pens are 2-0 since center Jordan Staal returned to the lineup after sitting out more than a month with a left knee injury. (69).

4. Vancouver Canucks. (5). Secured five out of a possible six points last week. Only trail the Red Wings by four points for the conference lead. (74).

3. Boston Bruins. (3). Suffered its biggest loss in almost four years to the Sabres (6-0) but rebounded with a shootout win over the Predators. (70).

2. Detroit Red Wings. (2). After losing to the Coyotes on Monday, the Wings turned in three straight wins, including a 4-3 win over the Flyers on Sunday that was the team’s 20th straight home victory. (78).

1. New York Rangers. (1). Two wins over the Flyers upped its cushion in the Atlantic Division to eight points. (77).

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Bordow’s reaction: AIA and power rankings mess | Power rankings formula flawed?
AIA to recommend members look at formula | Coach: System ‘fundamentally flawed’

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The flaw has left out teams that may have played in about one-third of the state tournaments that have been played since last season, when the current power ranking formula was implemented. On Sunday night, The Republic left messages on the cell phones of Chuck Schmidt, the AIA’s associate executive director, and Brian Bolitho, the AIA’s director of business media.

As soon as The Republic gets a response from the AIA about the flaw, we will post it.

“The current system does not present an error as the formula is working as created by the (power ranking) committee that represented the member schools,” wrote Bolitho in a recent blog about the power rankings on aia365.com. “The AIA values feedback from its member schools, and even outside observers. The AIA is paying close attention to the rankings throughout the sectional basketball tournaments to see if there are in fact concerns that need to be addressed based on the rankings pre and post sectional tournaments, and will bring those finding to the committee.”

Athletic directors representing each AIA conference serve on the AIA’s power ranking committee.

The problem is centered on how the current power ranking formula tabulates opponent victory points and opponent’s opponent victory points. John Carrieres, a former Intel employee for about 17 years, discovered the flaw.

The AIA has said that the power ranking formula it uses doesn’t give an advantage to teams that play extra games during the regular season, but, according to Carrieres, it does. Instead of using the number of games a team plays to figure out opponent victory points and opponent’s opponent victory points, the AIA should use a norm, Carrieres said.

Without getting too technical, a norm is the standard of regular season games a majority of teams played. For example, in boys soccer, a majority of teams played 12 games.

So the norm for boys soccer would be 12 games. In football, the teams played 10 games, so the norm would be 10 in football.

To demonstrate the flaw that teams who play more games have an advantage, Carrieres showed the number of opponent victory points Scottsdale Chaparral’s boys soccer team received from Phoenix Brophy under the current formula and his corrected formula.

Chaparral played 13 games, one more than the norm. Brophy played 12.

To get the opponent victory points Chaparral got from Brophy using the AIA’s current power ranking formula, you have to multiply 5 times the number of Brophy wins (11) and then divide the result by number of games Brophy played (12). The result is 4.58.

The final step is to multiply 4.58 by the number of games Chaparral played (13). The final result is 59.58, the number of opponent victory points Chaparral received from Brophy.

But that final number is inflated because the power ranking formula used the number of games Chaparral played (13) and not the norm (12). If 12 would have been used, then the correct opponent victory points Chaparral should have received from Brophy was 55.

To figure out opponent’s opponent victory points is more complicated, but you also need to use a norm to figure out that equation, said Carrieres, who uses a spread sheet to help him calculate his own power ranking formula.

The Republic contacted ASU math professor Scott Surgent to check Carrieres’ power ranking formula.

Carrieres and his wife, a former engineer and Valley high school math teacher, discovered the flaw in the current AIA power ranking formula about two weeks ago. Others folks have also pointed out the flaw, but Carrieres has been very proactive about telling the AIA and the media about the flaw.

“I whole-heartedly agree that (using the number of games a team played instead of a norm) in the AIA formula is flawed for the reason (the Carrieres) have explained,” Surgent said. “The fix (the Carrieres) propose, I believe, is very reasonable under the structure in which the formula is meant to exist.”

Below are the links that compare the AIA’s power rankings and the power rankings Carrieres’ spreadsheet produced for this school year’s football, volleyball and boys soccer state tournaments as well as the final regular season power rankings for boys and girls basketball and the latest power rankings for boys and girls basketball, which were used for the state tournament brackets.

“The biggest tragedy is that the formula does not do what people expect it to do,” Carrieres said. “The formula is not mathematically fair.”

Brian Manzullo of azcentral.com contributed to this story.

Carrieres, AIA power rankings

Football

Boys soccer

Volleyball

Girls basketball (Final regular season)

Girls basketball (After sectional tournaments)

Boys basketball (Final regular season)

Boys basketball (After sectional tournaments)

Since returning to the starting lineup, Dudley looks more like a scoring guard. He is scoring as much as any Suns player lately.

Dudley has matched a career-high streak of eight consecutive double-digit scoring games, averaging 16 points in his past eight games as have Steve Nash and Marcin Gortat.

While the return of Channing Frye’s shooting eye is more celebrated for how essential it is to the offense, Dudley’s rediscovered shooting touch has coincided with the Suns’ recent success. Dudley shot 44 percent from the field and 32 percent on 3-pointers in his first 18 games. Since going back into the starting lineup eight games ago, he has shot 52 percent from the field and made 55 percent of his 3s.

“My legs have gotten under me now,” Dudley said. “I have more of a rhythm. I’m being aggressive. A lot of it is confidence. I’m more locked in. I’m more aggressive. I know where my shots are coming from. Coach is running a couple more plays for me. The guys look for me and give me the ball off the dribble more. My confidence is growing.”

Offensively, Dudley has offered more than the 3s he gets out of transition or when defenses collapse on Nash’s and Gortat’s pick-and-rolls. While some high-risers have a vertical game, Dudley’s mocked athleticism is more of a horizontal game. He makes cuts in the half-court offense for lay-ins and uses fakes and angles to draw fouls on drives.

“He’s feeling more confident and more comfortable,” Nash said. “He’s been more decisive. He’s taking the ball into the paint and making plays. When he’s made shots, his whole game has opened up. His confidence has grown. He’s done a great job of making plays for other people too.”

Dudley, 26, is averaging career highs for points (11.6), rebounds (4.1) and assists (1.9) and is the locker-room personality that helps keep the team together.

“He’s a little bit of a dirt worker for us, where he has to come up with loose balls and take some charges,” coach Alvin Gentry said.

That is the parasite in Dudley, an apt description from Gentry that Dudley accepts as a nickname.

“I’m definitely a feed-off guy,” Dudley said. “When I get it going, I look to be aggressive. I see what the team needs.”

Still a rookie

Suns power forward Markieff Morris had just completed the best scoring game of his rookie year Saturday night at Sacramento, but his mind was preoccupied with what he had not done.

Morris forgot his rookie task of gathering up water and Gatorade for the bus ride to San Francisco.

During Saturday’s game, he looked like he had forgotten about the previous 14 games too. Morris had shot 29.7 percent over that span before his 18-point, six-rebound game Saturday. He still made only 1 of 5 3s, banking his only make, but performed bigger elsewhere with a great follow score to start his night. Playing more with Nash, Morris scored around the basket more than usual.

His performance dip was to be expected. He has played 27 NBA games in eight weeks. In his final college season, he played 38 games over 19 weeks.

“I’m feeling the grind a little but I’m taking one day at a time and taking care of my body so I can get better,” Morris said.

After playing Morris 26 minutes at Sacramento, Gentry said he does not see a rookie wall is sight for him.

“But I told him he needs to spend some time in the weight room because (DeMarcus) Cousins was bouncing him around like a rag doll,” Gentry said. “The thing I like about Markieff is he’ll compete and stick his nose in there. He’ll continue to get better.”

Free throws

Sacramento guard Tyreke Evans’ 1-for-9 shooting performance Saturday night against the defense of Suns forward Grant Hill was his worst shooting game since his home debut as a rookie in 2009.

“I didn’t play a lot of defense in Detroit so I’ve got to make up for those six years,” Hill said.

Hill on how the Suns bounced back from Thursday’s home loss to Houston: “We didn’t let that loss linger. It was a tough game that we could’ve won and we played bad. We showed a little maturity being able to bounce back.”

Crow not only wants a college football playoff, he’s going all in with a proposal for an eight-team tournament.

In a nutshell, Crow’s idea is to fill the tournament with the eight highest ranked teams from among the conference champions of the current 11 BCS conferences.

This would include the so called “non-automatic qualifying” conferences such as Conference USA, the Mountain West, etc. as well as the six “automatic qualifying conferences,” which include the Southeastern Conference, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, Atlantic Coast Conference and Big East.

He would then let the bowls pick their teams from the remaining teams, honoring conference ties and so on.

Consider The Heat Index on board — only with a couple of caveats:

Crow proposes that the tournament be separate from the bowls. We’d include them.

We don’t believe that conference commissioners or many presidents in the so-called “power conferences” will buy it as is.

For example, why would ASU’s own conference, the Pac-12, sign off on it?

In Crow’s system, Oregon as Pac-12 champ, would have been a playoff team last season. Nothing wrong with that.

But Stanford, fourth in the final BCS rankings, would have been left out with one regular-season loss.

Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech, which lost four of its first five games but won the Western Athletic title would have been eligible for the playoffs.

And what about Alabama?

The national champions wouldn’t have been in the playoffs because of that regular-season loss in overtime to Louisiana State.

However Arkansas State, which was manhandled by Illinois and Virginia Tech, won the Sun Belt Conference title and would have been eligible for a playoff.

Is the SEC going to go along with that? Heck, are the television networks, which would foot the bill for all of this, going to go along with that?

And what about independents such as BYU and Notre Dame?

An eight-team playoff should include the best teams, perhaps with no more than two teams from any conference.

A more realistic approach — and one that seems to have its own momentum — is the formation of 16-team conferences (which would have to take in the independents) with conference championship games leading to a college football Final Four.

The conference championships would, in effect, become national quarterfinals.

Now, about the bowl games. They have earned their spot at the table.

All the major bowl games have stadium contracts in place and have experience at staging major events.

If it must be an eight-game playoff, use the Rose, Tostitos Fiesta, Sugar and Orange and add a couple more bowl games that are in close proximity so that travel costs for teams and fans might be reduced.

A bracket might have the Holiday in San Diego and Fiesta in Glendale playing host to quarterfinal games. The Rose in nearby Pasadena would get a semifinal.

The Orange in Miami and Capital One in Orlando would be quarterfinal games with the Sugar in New Orleans as the semifinal.

The championship game would move and be open to bidding like the NFL’s Super Bowl.

This would give a market such as Dallas in Big 12 country a shot at the game, which could be hosted at Cowboys Stadium. Or it might go to Detroit, Indianapolis or Minneapolis in Big Ten country.

The existing bowl cities also could bid, so the Fiesta could play host to a championship game as it does in the BCS rotation.

We’re sure of this much: leave the bowls out of it, and television and sponsorship money soon will migrate to the playoffs.

The BCS will die. But bowls will, too.

Reach The Heat Index at 602-444-8271 or bob.young@arizonarepublic.com.

Their contributions have come to be expected this season, but it has been the secondary scoring of late that has energized a team bidding for its third consecutive playoff berth. That was brought sharply into focus in Saturday’s 3-0 over the Chicago Blackhawks. Vrbata scored his 26th goal, and the Coyotes got big boosts after goals by Boyd Gordon (7) and Kyle Chipchura (2).

Coach Dave Tippett said the Coyotes’ 10-point leap in a week was “huge.” The Coyotes will try to better that mark Monday, when they play in Vancouver before a Thursday game in Los Angeles.

“We talked about it coming out of the (All-Star) break,” he said. “We have to put a string together, and we hadn’t had a sustained winning streak all year. We were in and out a little bit so a sustained winning streak can get you right back to where you want to be.

“These five games have obviously been a great boost to us. The bigger thing about the points is how we played and when we got ahead (Saturday), they pushed hard. … We’re playing better as a group. We’re doing things that make you win.”

Goaltender Mike Smith, who has played in 44 games, two more than his previous high, has been a major factor in the team’s success. Aside from the fact that he is making highlight saves, he works well with the penalty-killers, and the unit ranks ninth with an 84.2 percent success rate.

The win streak was nice, captain Shane Doan said, but there is no room for complacency.

“Well, we have a little bit of ground to make up, so it was one of those things that eventually we felt that if we kind of got a roll going we could roll with some wins, kind of get some momentum,” he said. “It was a big for us to finish off this little home stint here with a couple more wins and try to get where we want to be. We cannot be happy with where we’re at, and we have to keep climbing.”

The Coyotes have had to overcome several injuries and an unfavorable six-week portion of their schedule. That’s all in the past, said defenseman Keith Yandle.

“There’s no excuses, especially when you’re fighting for your life every day like we are,” he said. “We know we can’t have any excuse any night. We know we’ve got to bring our ‘A’ game to win.

“It’s something we take pride in that, in winning as a group, and we try to let the adversity stay out of the room and do what we can to win games.”

But the last step? That’s taken care of. Receiver Stephen Williams won’t mind giving the number up to Manning.

“He can have my shoulder pads, too, if he wants them,” Williams joked.

A year ago, picturing Manning in something other than a Colts jersey was accomplished only with pharmaceutical help.

But Manning has had three neck procedures over the past two years, missed all of last season, and is due a $28 million option bonus by March 8. With the first pick in the draft, the Colts are expected to take Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck.

With all those factors in play, the Colts are expected to release Manning in the next month or so rather than pay him the $28 million.

That would make Manning a free agent, and most teams without a proven quarterback, including the Cardinals, likely will express interest.

Manning turns 36 this year, has a right arm weakened by his neck condition, didn’t play last season and will command big money.

But having an elite quarterback means everything in the NFL, and teams that care about winning will do almost anything to get one.

Over the past few weeks, it seems every team without an established quarterback has been linked to Manning, including the Cardinals.

The Cal-Neva Sportsbook has made the Dolphins (20 percent chance) the favorite to land Manning. The Cardinals (3 percent) are ranked fifth. Or Manning could retire (20 percent) or stay with the Colts (14 percent).

It doesn’t take much to fuel speculation linking a team to Manning. Last week, the Cardinals hired Manning’s former quarterbacks coach, Frank Reich, to coach receivers.

Was that done as part of the effort to attract Manning? Reich said there are no dots to connect.

Two weeks ago at the Super Bowl, word leaked that Manning and Cardinals receiver Larry Fitzgerald met for dinner. Fitzgerald played coy, then denied it. Others, however, say it happened.

Does that mean Manning one day will pass more than the salt to Fitzgerald?

It’s possible, but as with most personnel decisions in the NFL, health and money are huge factors.

The surgeon who operated on Manning’s neck has cleared him to return to football. But the Colts haven’t, and Manning reportedly still has weakness in his right arm because nerves haven’t fully regenerated.

There are so many “ifs” and “whens” with Manning now that’s impossible to accurately predict the future.

This much seems certain: Given Manning’s health issues, the $28 million option and the opportunity to draft Luck, the Colts will release the iconic quarterback.

Even if Manning were healthy, it would be difficult to pay his salary, as well as that of the first overall pick in the draft.

Manning built his impressive career on an impeccable sense of timing, but that’s not the case this off-season.

He could regain the strength in his right arm this spring, or this summer, or a year from now, or never.

The tricky part for teams will be deciding whether they are willing to gamble on Manning’s future, and if so, how much do they shove to the middle of the table?

Many of the potential suitors, like the Cardinals, already have invested heavily in the position. Last summer, the Cardinals traded Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a second-round pick in the 2012 draft to the Eagles for quarterback Kevin Kolb.

They quickly signed Kolb to a five-year contract worth a maximum of $61 million. The Cardinals already have paid Kolb $12 million, including a $10 million signing bonus, and they owe him another $7 million if he’s on the roster March 17.

That’s nine days after the Colts’ deadline for making a decision on Manning. Chances are, Manning’s physical condition will still be in question then.

Cardinals officials have declined to discuss the Manning situation, citing NFL rules against tampering with players under contract with other teams.

Last week, Cardinals team President Michael Bidwill told KGME-AM (910) said about the Kolb bonus: “You sort of cross that bridge as you get there, but I wouldn’t say we are going to deviate from the plan at this stage.”

So could the Cardinals pay both Kolb and Manning? Possibly but it’s doubtful. In paying Kolb the $7 million, the Cardinals would commit to keeping him for 2012. That means they would have paid him $20 million for two seasons.

Manning’s last contract with the Colts averaged $18 million a year. That’s a lot of money committed to one position, even if it’s the most important on the team.

This is all assuming, too, that Manning is healthy enough to play. There are no assurances of that, and any team signing him likely will want to put him through an extensive workout to test the strength and endurance of his arm.

No one knows when, or if, Manning will be able to do that.

Until that answer is known, Williams, the Cardinals receiver, can keep his jersey.