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Drug tunnel numbers at Arizona-Mexico border ‘down’, so why does DHS say ‘up’?

by on Aug. 24, 2010, under Off Topic

Several hours ago, an AP article alerted the world that the weight of a bus caused the collapse of a road in a very curious spot in Nogales. The collapse in the road alerted law enforcement to a border tunnel directly under the Nogales, Arizona Port of Entry.

The AP article emphasized that drug tunnel discoveries were significantly down in Arizona. Specifically, 20 were discovered in 2009. Only five tunnels were discovered in the same period of time this year, in 2010.

Several days ago, NBC San Diego quoted the Department of Homeland Security as stating that the number of border tunnels has actually increased significantly, 63% in the last several years.

Additionally, they state that these tunnels are a growing threat to national security.

If these “numbers” are true from DHS, it doesn’t make sense that the tunnels would actually be down in Arizona. It would make more sense that the “discoveries” in Arizona would be down.

Wouldn’t it?

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  • Hugh Holub

    God knows how many tunnels there are under Nogales. When I ran the Public Works Department we’d stumble into them whenever digging a trench. SOmetimes the catrtel would rent a house, and dig a tunnel from the house and only when neighbors got suspcios ands the house was raided would the tunnel be discovered.

    Some of the tunnels are quit professional…lights, ventillation. They mostly go to the city drainage system which connects to the covered tunnel that runs to Mexico..a major hole in border secuyrity….and occssionally the tunnels actually go straight across the border.

    The joke down there is the whole downtown area is going to collapse into a giant sink hole.

    The fact that fewer tunnels were discovered doesn’t mean there are fewer tunnels…another  Border Patrol statistic game. It just means they haven’t been found yet.

    • Cherlyn Gardner Strong

      Exactly, Hugh. That numbers game fascinates me. You got the point I was making.

      • Roberto

        The interpretation of numbers is a very devious game.
        “The fact that fewer tunnels were discovered doesn’t mean there are fewer tunnels…  It just means they haven’t been found yet.”
        This statement is half-false, half-true.  Say, you take a week off of work to look for tunnels along the border.  The first two days you find 3 tunnels each day.  The next five days you find none.  So in the analysis of the week you can conclude that there were fewer tunnels discovered as the week came to an end.  Does that mean there are less tunnels?  Does that mean that MORE exist but we just haven’t found them?
        The ‘simple’ answer is ‘we don’t know’.  The ‘I don’t know enough about interpreting analysis’ answer is ‘yes’ (to either argument).  We need more information as to how many people are actually looking for tunnels every day, What is the search area per person, what tools are they using to ‘discover’ tunnels, etc. etc..  My guess is that there isn’t enough people to cover the whole border at ALL times.  Also, tunnels are continually being made.  More today, less tomorrow, more next week, less next year, etc. ect..
        Even if they ‘discover’ twenty tunnels this years and twenty-two tunnels next year and eighteen the following year, does that mean people are digging more and less?
        We are not politicians.  We are not going to make money or gain anything from this.  We don’t have to come-up with conclusions without much thought process so that we can improve our image.  Lets take a step back and think about it.
         

        • Cherlyn Gardner Strong

          You make excellent points. Yes, we don’t know. I am a border resident who is constantly being told that there is no problem at the border, based on “numbers” and “facts”. I am told “Look at the facts!” Yet my reality is different, despite those facts.  My goal with this post was to get at a couple things. You hit on another thought I had:, “we don’t know”, so I would appreciate those who tell me to “look at the facts” to actually consider the uncertainty behind those “facts”.

  • Christina

    I read both articles and found the conclusion of the Citizen reporter unfounded.  The article released by the AP only talks about the Tucson sector in the last year.  The article published by NBC San Diego does not specifically say anything about a particular sector but says the border in general and discusses the events over the last several years (which is nebulous when trying to do a proper comparison).  If both articles are true, the reporter should have come up with the conclusion that tunneling must be moving to other areas on the border, such as Tijuana and Calexico, and that the emphasis on the Tucson sector is actually discouraging the drug lords from taking chances in Nogales, but the most likely scenario is what Hugh said in his reply, they just haven’t found them, yet.

    • Cherlyn Gardner Strong

      The Tucson Citizen is a collection of blogs and the folks who write these posts are unpaid bloggers. We are not reporters.

      My thought was exactly what you and Hugh came up with, as well. They just haven’t found them yet. Glad the first two commenters see that possibility.

  • Cherlyn Gardner Strong

    By the way, I strongly prefer the Nogales International reporting of the drug tunnel. Nogales International consistently reports stories without skewing too badly. I wrote this post based on not agreeing the AP report of the incident. Here’s Nogales International’s report:  http://www.nogalesinternational.com/articles/2010/08/24/news/doc4c73e2b71432d548787784.txt

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