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Archive for November, 2009

Low-Cal: Notes and bowl projections with a touch of bizarre

Wednesday, November 18th, 2009

Are you over the Cal loss yet? Me neither. Let’s mope together.

In the first quarter Arizona had two possessions, two first downs, and zero points. So much for a fast start to get a struggling Bear team to quit early.

Since we (rightfully) treated WSU like a scrimmage we had three weeks to prepare for Cal. The new wrinkle on offense was an odd one – splitting Chris Gronk out wide and using him as the motion man. Not only did it eliminate the threat of handing off to a wide receiver, it also made Gronk run 15 yards before getting ready to block on running plays.

To top it off, on the one tricky play we were setting up all game – C.Gronk going in motion and running deep down the sideline – Foles missed him. Back to the wrinkle drawing board.

Remember last year’s Cal game when we turned the game around with 28 third-quarter points? This year the UA opened the second half with five straight three-and-outs. Washington State’s offense wasn’t that bad.

The Wildcat defense didn’t give up a touchdown until midway through the third quarter and even then it took a 14-yard punt to set it up. We’re still waiting for the offense and defense to show up in the same non-scrimmage-like game.

Give Matt Scott credit. He came in after the fifth three-and-out, did what he does best, ended the first-down drought and got the team started on a TD drive. I hope we continue to use Scott’s legs to shake things up when they need a good shaking.

Rule of thumb: You don’t want fewer points than your ranking if you want to stay ranked.

How hard did Cal try to give this game away? Riley’s Longshore-esque interceptions, going for two too early, a pass interference penalty on 2nd-and-17, another PI on 3rd-and-12, and missing the final extra point in an eight-point game. But nobody out-Arizonas Arizona. Which brings us to…

Things Nobody Else Does
  • Turn a 15-yard loss into a nine-yard gain
    Not a three-yard loss. Not a seven-yard loss. Fifteen. Now that’s some poor tackling. The Cal player was so far behind the line of scrimmage even Jim Marshall was embarrassed.
  • Forget the rules of football
    What would it take to top the double pass? Trying to throw the ball through the uprights for three points? Running a bootleg with the ball stuffed in your pants? I probably shouldn’t give them any ideas. But I do know this: Nick Foles is undefeated in games decided by fewer than one extremely bizarre play.

Cal only loses to USC and OSU at home. USC only loses to Stanford at home. You think they’ll let us borrow the Tree for December 5?

If you were using your TWIT-Pac decoder ring you knew once we lost to Cal it was OK to root against ASU, so at least we have that. Sure enough the Ducks put a beating on the Devils to get back to their winning ways, just in time to face our guys.

Stanford provided the blueprint for stopping Oregon: You don’t. Not a single Pac-10 team has held the Masoli-led Ducks below 42 points. That means we need six touchdowns just to stay in the game. Zendejas shouldn’t even bother warming up.

Here are the updated bowl projections (assuming the favorite wins each game), if you dare…

Team Overall Pac-10 Remaining Wins
Oregon 10-2 8-1 UA, OSU
Stanford 9-3 7-2 Cal, ND
USC 9-3 6-3 UCLA, UA
OSU 8-4 6-3 WSU
Cal 8-4 5-4 UW
ARIZONA 7-5 5-4 ASU
UCLA 6-6 3-6 ASU
UW 4-8 3-6 WSU
ASU 4-8 2-7 none
WSU 1-11 0-9 none

 

The big winner this past week was obviously Stanford who is now in the driver’s seat for the Holiday Bowl. Not a bad splash for your first postseason appearance in eight years.

The big loser over the weekend was Your Frustrating Arizona Wildcats. From the top 20 to battling UCLA for the Poinsettia Bowl.

But, hey, that’s nothing a big upset victory can’t fix.

Nobody’s Home: Cats fail at Cal but will try Door #2

Monday, November 16th, 2009

We’ve been here before.

Let’s do it again.

Why can’t we just lose like normal teams? When it comes to big games Arizona doesn’t do “Their QB just caught fire and there was nothing we could do” losses or “They were simply the better team” losses. No, it has to be something you’ve never seen before. Around here, once-in-a-lifetime plays happen every other year.

Foot Game, meet the Double-Pass Game. As if our armoire of traumatizing memoirs wasn’t already full.

In the grand scheme of things this loss doesn’t change anything. The team still controls its own fate for the league championship while at the same time being right on pace for the 7-5 season we hoped for in August. Losing at Cal doesn’t change any of that, but that’s the point. We wanted this game to change things.

We wanted a team that was going to rise to the occasion and play its best ball when the stakes were highest. We wanted a team of destiny that was going to take advantage of all the good fortune going on around us.

The extraordinary excitement leading up to this game wasn’t so much because of something the Wildcats did as it was because of what was going on everywhere else. If USC was undefeated and in the top five we wouldn’t have thought twice about being 4-2 in league play. But USC has three losses, Cal has three losses and Oregon has lost twice. OSU and Stanford waited until after losing to us to get red hot. We are getting every needed break. But breaks don’t mean you have a better team.

So why the doom and gloom? Because there are two sides to the equation. One is being in a position to win a championship. The other is having a team good enough to do so. We knew the Cats wouldn’t be eliminated with a loss at Cal, but we knew this was a measuring stick game, and Arizona didn’t measure up.

Does this mean we shun the team the rest of the way? Of course not. You don’t stop loving your dad when you discover he isn’t Superman. You’re just sad for a while.

The Wildcats didn’t roll over after the Washington loss and they won’t roll over now. You wish you were going into the Oregon game on a Stanford-like roll but we are what we are, and that’s still allergic to success.

The program hasn’t yet learned how to play from in front. We had our first chance with the yellow jersey but instead of riding like Lance Armstrong we rode like…uh…a cyclist other than Lance Armstrong.

So we find ourselves back in a familiar role: middle-of-the-standings, unranked underdog with a top team coming to town for a game on network TV. Thus knocketh opportunity a second time.

We found Nick Foles behind Door #2. Maybe we can find late-season magic there too.

Do you believe? Do you even want to believe? The bigger the dreams the harder they fall. Do we ignore the Cal game, focus on the “Win three and we’re in” mantra and dive heart-first into the Oregon showdown, or do we scale hopes back to 7-5 and prepare for the worst on Saturday?

I’m not going to decide. Conference champions win games like this, but 7-5 teams can too. I’m going to go to GameDay. I’m going to participate in the Red Out. Not because it’s the first step in a miraculous run toward a dream, but because my team is playing at home and we can win a really big game.

We’ll worry about scenarios and expectations again next week. This week is about packing the Stadium, making a ton of noise, and storming the field.

So, yes, I want a little zing in my zang-zang.

This Week In The Pac-10, Week 11: In the market for miracles

Thursday, November 12th, 2009

Anyone got a couple miracles they can spare?

The Cats, as usual, can help their cause by winning but the biggest gains are to be found in rooting for the biggest upsets.

Stanford (6-3 / 5-2) at USC (7-2 / 4-2) – 1:30 PM (all times Arizona/Mountain), FSN
The game of the week. Winner stays alive in the conference race. Loser wallows among the bottom bowls. Please let USC do the wallowing…

Who do we root for?
Stanford. A lot. We already own the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Cardinal and we want USC to fall as far and as fast as possible.

Washington (3-6 / 2-4) at OSU (6-3 / 4-2) – 1:30 PM, FSNNW
The Huskies have lost five of six. You don’t even want to think about their one win.

Who do we root for?
Unknown. That’s right, TWIT-Pac is stumped. The problem is it depends on the result of the USC/Stanford game. If the Cardinal wins we want OSU to win to keep the four-way tiebreaker alive. But if the Trojans take care of business we want the Beavers to stay below us in the bowl pecking order. Of course, the two games are played at the same time. At least the UW/OSU game isn’t on TV in Arizona so we don’t have to watch in ambivalence.

UCLA (4-5 / 1-5) at WSU (1-8 / 0-6) – 3 PM, Fox CS
I don’t know what Fox CS is. Fox CSI would make more sense with Wazzu involved.

Who do we root for?
WSU. A loss knocks UCLA out of bowl contention and, as we learned we should be disliking the Bruins every chance we get.

ARIZONA (6-2 / 4-1) at Cal (6-3 / 3-3) – 5 PM, Versus
How will the Cats handle their first road game since the Inaccurate Deflection? Will the Bears be inspired by the play of their second-Best running back?

Who do we root for?
Your Keep-Hope-Alive Wildcats. The Oregon game next week is huge no matter what happens but a UA win this week opens up a lot more options.

ASU (4-5 / 2-4) at Oregon (7-2 / 5-1) – 8:20 PM, ABC
Will the Devils find magic with a quarterback named Oz? At 6-8 he’s no Munchkin.

Whose victory would best help Arizona?
ASU. This the last week, I promise. Just repeat after me: Alone in first place…Alone in first place…

Five Pac-10 games this week and four of them have a direct bearing on the conference race. That’s what you call a fine college football league.

So, yeah, we’re asking for USC, Oregon and Cal to all lose at home on the same day.

No one ever said this miracle stuff was easy.

I Love Boring: WSU, Cal and updated bowl projections

Wednesday, November 11th, 2009

I apologize for the interruption. Where were we?

Oh yeah: Now that’s the kind of game I like. But I had someone tell me on Sunday how boring the Washington State game was. The stream of red shirts heading to the exit at halftime agreed. Are we spoiled already? Have we forgotten 38-0, 45-0 and 59-13, when the big numbers were on the wrong side of the scoreboard?

Give me boring any day if it means my team is a huge favorite and it plays like a huge favorite.

Opening the game with a kickoff return touchdown is how you get it done when you’re expected to win by 30 points. Starting the game with a total yard advantage of 179-4 is another way. Scoring 31 points before giving up a first down is another.

On to more notes out the Wazzu:

It was great to see Nic Grigsby wearing his jersey and leading the team out onto the field before the game. It’ll be better when he’s back creating fireworks during the game.

We did have our #2 ball-carrier available and Keola Antolin looked to be at full speed. The Flyin’ Hawaiian even put on an air show at the goal line.

We used the all-hair backfield! Nick Foles, Taimi Tutogi and Keola Antolin formed one shaggy I.

Then, to mix it up, Tutogi got some carries himself. Just in case you were wondering who our
fifth-string running back is.

Speaking of hair, Brooks Reed played, recorded a sack, and didn’t limp off the field. That’s the triple crown for our defense.

Earl Mitchell came oh-so-close to intercepting that pass in the flat. Watching him rumble down the sideline with the ball would’ve been just like old times, only with 50 more pounds.

Can we please have Matt Scott run just one old-school, two-hands-on-the-ball, end-over-end-backhand-pitch option play? Ronnie Veal and my Wildcat memories would appreciate it.

Happiness is clinching tacos in the first half.

Was Wilbur trying to show his age at halftime or was that his pimpin’ cane?

I was happy to see walk-on kickoff guy, John Bonano, get to kick an extra point. It was like David Bagga hitting a three. Maybe Bonano will write a book about it.

How is the SEC the best conference when their championship game match-up is decided with three weeks left? We’re here trying to figure out how to break a four-way tie and the SEC has already booked their ‘Bama/’Da championship game. Yawn.

Here are the updated Pac-10 standings projections. Remember, the following is based on the favorite winning every game.

Team Overall Pac-10 Remaining Wins
Oregon 10-2 8-1 ASU, UA, OSU
USC 10-2 7-2 Stan, UCLA, UA
ARIZONA 8-4 6-3 Cal, ASU
OSU 8-4 6-3 UW, WSU
Stanford 8-4 6-3 Cal, ND
Cal 7-5 4-5 UW
UCLA 6-6 3-6 WSU, ASU
UW 4-8 3-6 WSU
ASU 4-8 2-7 none
WSU 1-11 0-9 none

I’m not comfortable being a road favorite but thus spake the gambling guys. And, Nose Hole aside, suddenly Arizona has to keep winning just to keep pace with OSU and Stanford.

If the above comes to pass and both Oregon and USC make BCS bowls, who does the Holiday Bowl pick between UA, OSU and Stanford? The Cardinal would be coming in having won four of five so I’ll go with them. That would leave the Cats for the Sun, OSU to the Emerald, Cal to Vegas and UCLA squeaking into the Poinsettia.

Last year I would have fallen all over myself to sign up for that. Not this year. It’s time to let it ride.

There’s something about the Arizona/Cal rivalry. The all-time series is tied at 13-13-2 and the loser of the game always seems to be the team with the most at stake. In 2006 the 4-5 Wildcats kept Cal from the conference championship. We all know what the 5-4 Bears did to us in 1993. So, yes, it’s not a good sign that we’re the team a half-game out of first.

I hope no one thinks this game became a gimme when Jahvid Best went down. His backup, Shane Vareen, has more touchdowns this year (8) than anyone on the UA roster. Their third-string guy averages seven yards a carry. The Bears will still have plenty of firepower.

On top of that it’s just not easy to win on the road. When you’re looking for the best conference road wins this year it’s a short list. The candidates are UA over OSU, USC over Cal, and OSU over Cal.

That’s it. And don’t get excited because Cal is on there twice. You know the last time the Bears lost two in a row at home? 2002, Jeff Tedford’s first year. That’s right, you have to go all the way back to the team that lost to the Mackovic Mutineers.

Let’s hope this game doesn’t make us long for boring.

Knock-Knock: Mike Stoops prepares for his first chance at greatness

Monday, November 9th, 2009

Now that’s the kind of game I— Hold on, let me get the door.

Hello, Opportunity.

Here we are. We have been waiting for this week and this game. Now we find out just how good this team really is.

The good news is the question hasn’t been answered yet. The season wasn’t going to be won in the first eight games but it certainly could have been lost.

2009 is not lost. The Wildcats did what they needed to do to get to this point in one piece. They won a Pac-10 road game. They won their first five home games, including three consecutive league games.

Don’t just brush that off. They did it. That’s big news! For the first time in Mike Stoops’ tenure the Cats are not going to have an inexcusable loss at home. And when you beat the bad teams at the beginning of the year your games with the good teams mean a lot more at the end of the year.

Isn’t it fun to be scoreboard watching in November? Wasn’t it exciting after our game to have everyone from the head coach to the guy in the last row of the upper deck wanting to keep tabs on the Oregon game?

Oregon beats USC, Stanford beats Oregon, and Arizona keeps winning. To quote the great military strategist John “Hannibal” Smith: “I love it when a plan comes together.”

Only one team failed to hold up its end of the perfect-weekend bargain. Yes, I’m talking to you, Arizona State. If the Sun Devils had found a way to score six more points it would have dropped our USC game into same category as the Cal and ASU games. But as it stands we still need the head-to-head tie-breaker against every potential two-loss team, so both the Oregon and USC games remain must-win.

Obviously we want to beat Cal this Saturday. There’s a winning season at stake and you always want to keep momentum this time of year. But since we got a little help from our friends the Cats have a loss to play with. A mulligan. One press of the reset button.

It eases the tension for one more week. There won’t be do-or-die pressure hanging over the team. The dream will not die in Berkeley. Win or lose the Cats will play the home game against Oregon still alive for the—

I can’t say it. Being this close I can’t bring myself to type the two-word phrase that simultaneously excites and torments the Arizona Football fan. Let’s just say it rhymes with “Nose Hole.”

This is historic stuff. The Wildcats will be going into the tenth game of the season still controlling their own destiny for the Pac-10 championship. Has that ever happened before?

Remember, the 1998 UCLA loss was barely in game six. The Oregon loss in 1994 (the 10-9 score) was in game eight. Everyone remembers the Cal loss in the penultimate game of ’93 but UCLA’s second loss came that same day so the Cats never regained destinal control after the loss to the Bruins in game eight.

The eighth game was also the end of the line in 1986 and 1983. Arizona stayed in the driver’s seat until the ninth game in both 1989 (one-point Cal loss) and 1985 (five-point UCLA loss).

What does this teach us? We don’t hate UCLA nearly enough. But you know the team that’s not on the list? ASU. It’s true; Arizona has never even made it to the final game of the regular season with the Pac-10 championship in its grasp. There’s a reason ASU fans never brag about the times they’ve knocked us out of the Nose Hole.

They might just get their chance this year.

Opportunity is indeed knocking for the first time at the door of Mike Stoops. The assumption is if you can get to this point once you can do it again but you never know. You never want to go out on anything less than your best shot, and our best shot is a home game on November 21.

Can the Stoops-led Cats handle it? In his first five years Stoops has shown he can beat really good teams as the underdog. For the first time we’ll see how he performs against the high-end teams as a potential peer. How his team performs in the “free” game at Cal will be a pretty good indicator.

Please come in, Opportunity. We’ve missed you.