Beep, beep, beep…

You hear that? It’s the sound of Arizona Baseball backing into the NCAA tournament.

I-80 is going to be crowded coming from the west.
Photo by Jeff Metcalfe/The Arizona Republic

The Cats got the news they were hoping for when they were included among the 64 teams in the 2010 Big Diamond Dance. The Pac-10 got the news it wanted when all eight teams in contention made the field. The previous record for the league was six bids in 1992.

What’s interesting is not only did Cal get in but the Bears were seeded higher than Oregon, Arizona and OSU. It appears the committee used the RPI to select teams but then put a higher weight on the conference standings to seed them.

Here is a look at the competition the Wildcats will face in the Fort Worth, Texas regional:

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The Arizona Wildcats salvaged the final game of the regular season thanks to a huge home run from Steve Selsky and the work of four pitchers.

Selsky’s game-winning (and potentially season-saving) shot came with two outs in the 6th inning. Vincent Littleman, Nick Cunningham, Stephen Manthei and Bryce Bandilla combined to limit Oregon State to a single run in the 3-1 victory.

Now things get interesting.

Here are the final Pac-10 standings:

The RPI numbers are the estimates going into Sunday’s games.

I didn’t think the USC/Washington series mattered but it is good that the Trojans took the final two games of the series to leave the Huskies alone in 9th place. It cleans up the standings so the top eight teams are clearly the top eight teams and all can argue they deserve a bid.

Do they all deserve a bid? ASU and UCLA are officially in as they have already been announced as regional hosts. Washington State is alone in third place with a top-30 RPI. The Cougars are a lock.

After that? This is where the human element of a particular selection committee comes in. Of the five Pac-10 bubble teams the two with the best RPI have the worst conference record and the two with the lowest RPI have the best conference record.

If I had to rank the five teams based on their likelihood of getting a bid I’d go with Stanford, Oregon, OSU, Arizona and Cal. Stanford has the most wins against the RPI top-50. The Beavers and Wildcats have an almost identical profile with OSU getting the advantage due to head-to-head and a better finish. If the league only gets seven in the odd man out should be Cal. Some will agree but others will not.

We’ll see how this story ends in just a few hours as the field of 64 is revealed at 9:30 a.m. Arizona/Pacific time Monday morning.

All eight would be great.

Oregon State beat the Arizona Wildcats, 5-0, Saturday afternoon to put another nail in the UA’s postseason coffin.

Beaver pitchers recorded 16 strikeouts as the Cats were shut out for the third time this year, wasting starter Kyle Simon’s big-game performance. The sophomore pitcher gave up just one earned run in 6.1 innings but his teammates were only able to muster five hits, all singles.

The Wildcat offense is in a really bad place right now.

But it gets even worse for Arizona. Cal has risen from the dead to win two straight at Oregon. Couple that with the events in Corvallis and the up-to-the-minute Pac-10 standings look like this:

The Bears have gone from falling off the bubble to being one victory away from a winning conference record which is going to be really hard to ignore. And Cal series always end in sweeps.

It will be very interesting if Cal beats Oregon and Arizona beats OSU on Sunday. That would give the Ducks, Beavers and Wildcats identical Pac-10 records with similar RPI numbers. How do you tell them apart? Do you just take all three?

At this point the UA would gladly suffer through that uncertainty. Lose one last time and it’s an easy call to leave out the 11-16 team that’s sitting in 8th or 9th place.

But is it already too late? Realistically, is the tournament selection committee going to wait until 6:30 Eastern to decide if Arizona is in the field?

I say yes.

A top-25 RPI and 12 wins against the RPI top 50 should get you in. But you can’t take a team that has lost six out of seven and 14 of 19 to end the season. You’re not going to extend a bid to a team that finishes five games under .500 in league play. You can crunch the numbers all you want but at the end of the day your job is to select the teams most deserving of the opportunity to play for a national championship.

To be deserving you have to win.

The playoffs start on Sunday for the Wildcats. And for one day, it’s single-elimination.

Baseball isn’t played with a clock but if it was, time would be running out for the Arizona Wildcats.

The Oregon State Beavers beat Arizona by a score of 6-3 Friday night to put the UA’s postseason chances at further risk. Wildcat ace Kurt Heyer was roughed up for six earned runs in 6.1 innings including two home runs off the bat of OSU’s Adalberto Santos.

The Wildcats will now attempt to do something they haven’t done all year: win a series after losing the first game. If the Cats can’t turn around their season-long trend the season could come to an abrupt end.

I still believe Arizona needs just one win in this series to earn a tournament bid but the pressure is building with each additional loss.

The good news is the second game has been the Wildcats’ best effort in each of the past three series. The UA has backed up Kyle Simon with over 12 runs a game and won all three starts. It would be a really good idea to do the same this Saturday. No one wants to have the entire season come down to one game.

Saturday’s contest starts at 2 p.m. It can be seen on Fox Sports Northwest and heard on 1290 AM radio in Tucson.

Tick…tick…tick….

Eight Pac-10 baseball teams remain in the tournament discussion even though only three of them have clinched a winning conference record. Who will be the best of the losers?

The bubble is on ASU, not the
other way around.
Photo by Crystal Ochoa/
The Arizona Republic

#2.8 ASU (46-7 / 19-6)
at #29.0 Stanford (30-22 / 13-12)
This is a Thursday-to-Saturday series and the Sun Devils already won the first game. ASU is officially the four-time defending Pac-10 champs.

Who do the Wildcats want to win?
ASU. If the Cardinal lose the final two games it will join the teams with a losing conference record. Blemished teams love company.

Prediction: The Devils win two out of three but Stanford makes the tournament.

#30.2 ARIZONA (32-20 / 11-13)
at OSU (29-21 / 10-14)
The Beavers picked up another resume-boosting win in a non-conference game against Oregon on Wednesday. OSU knows it is this close to making the Diamond Dance.

Who do the Wildcats want to win?
Your Maybe-Never-Is-Enough Wildcats. If the Lakers can win on a Kobe Bryant air-ball the BatCats may be able to get into the tournament losing six consecutive series.

Prediction: OSU wins two out of three but both teams get in.

Cal (27-22 / 11-13) at #22.6 Oregon (37-20 / 12-12)
The Bears are still on the bubble even after seven consecutive losses. If the Ducks avoid a sweep they’ll be comfortably in the field of 64.

Who do the Wildcats want to win?
Oregon. Arizona’s two best arguments are RPI and “At least we’re not as bad as Cal.”

Prediction: In a monumental upset, Cal doesn’t get swept! But the Bears lose two of three and get left out of the field.

Washington (27-26 / 10-14) at USC (26-31 / 5-19)
The only two teams in the league with no chance of making the tournament meet to quietly end their seasons. Shhh…

Who do the Wildcats want to win?
Doesn’t matter. Maybe the Trojans, to make the Cats’ series loss to them a little less embarrassing.

Prediction: Nobody watches this series who isn’t related to one of the players.

#24.4 WSU (33-18 / 14-10) at #7.0 UCLA (41-12 / 16-8)
The best the Bruins can do now is tie for the Pac-10 title, but UCLA can still earn home field through the Super Regionals with a strong finish.

Who do the Wildcats want to win?
Doesn’t matter. Both of these teams are making the tournament no matter what. If you like watching Pac-10 teams in the College World Series root for UCLA.

Prediction: UCLA takes two of three, WSU gets a bid and the Bruins are one of the eight national seeds.

That would be seven Pac teams in the tournament with two teams in line to host a Regional and Super Regional. It would be the Pac-10’s strongest regular season showing ever.

The Wildcats and Beavers play at 5:30 p.m on Friday, 2 p.m. on Saturday and noon on Sunday.

Saturday’s game will be televised on Fox Sports Northwest. On Fox Sports Arizona at the same time? “In My Own Words: Mark Grace” and Brandon Webb’s fishing tournament. You aren’t finishing the year with momentum if fishing shows are more valuable in your home state.

All the Pac-10 hopefuls will learn their fate during the college baseball tournament selection show Monday starting at 9:30 a.m. Pacific/Arizona time on ESPN.

Can the Cats reel in a bid?