Kevin Newman and the UA freshman need three wins and some help to make their first tournament.
Photo by David Kadlubowski/azcentral sports

The final week of the college baseball regular season is here.

Conference tournaments are going on around the country but the Pac-12 doesn’t believe in such redundancy. The 30-game conference season will be wrapped this weekend, then 16 NCAA regional hosts will be announced on Sunday and the full field of 64 will be made known the morning of Memorial Day.

Will the defending national champions be a part of it?

One final look at the polls:

BA = Baseball America
CB = Collegiate Baseball
NC = National Collegiate Baseball Writers
PG = Perfect Game
US = USA Today/ESPN coaches’ poll

Expect the Pac-12 to end up with three regional hosts and a chance at two national seeds.

Up next are the games you don’t want to be your last:

USC (20-33 / 10-17) at ARIZONA (31-21 / 12-15)
Something for next year’s Wildcats to shoot for: The last time the UA won the baseball season series against Arizona State three straight years was way back in 1957-1959 under Frank Sancet.

Friday and Saturday’s games (both at 6 p.m. Arizona/Pacific time) will be streamed live for free on Pac-12.com. Sunday’s 12 p.m. game will be televised on Pac-12 Networks.

WSU (22-30 / 8-19) at #4.0 OSU (43-9 / 22-5)
Oregon State needs just one win to clinch at least a share of the Pac-12 crown. Then again, that’s all Oregon needed last year. Pac-12 Networks will broadcast all three games, Friday at 4 p.m., Saturday at 1 p.m. and Sunday at noon.

#10.0 UCLA (38-15 / 20-7) at Stanford (30-21 / 14-13)
The Bruins are still alive for the championship if OSU stumbles. The entire series (Friday and Saturday 7 p.m., Sunday at 3 p.m.) will be on Pac-12 Networks.

#9.2 Oregon (43-13 / 20-7) at Utah (20-29 / 6-21)
Last week didn’t go the Ducks’ way but they’re still playing for a national seed and home field advantage up until the College World Series.

#17.6 ASU (34-18 / 15-12) at Washington (22-31 / 13-14)
The Sun Devils are most likely done with home games and the road hasn’t been kind to ASU in tournament play. Pac-12 Networks will be showing Saturday’s 4 p.m. game and Sunday’s 12 p.m. finale.

Cal is the odd team out and the Bears don’t have anyone to play. Cal’s bye week will last until next February.

* * *

It’s simple for the BatCats: Sweep or weep. And the UA may end up weeping anyway.

Arizona’s RPI is up to 62 but it’s not going to get much better no matter what happens this week. Case in point, Stanford had an RPI of 80 last week. After sweeping No. 101 Cal, the Cardinal’s RPI is now…80. USC’s RPI is a not-helping 128.

Just like a month ago, the precedent is Oregon State defending its 2006 national championship. The difference is the 2007 Beavers had an insane 28-3 non-conference record while the 2013 Wildcats went 19-6. But sixth place in a nine team league (with a 10-14 conference record) is still sixth place and OSU got the benefit of the doubt that year. Then they erased doubt all the way to title number two.

So win three games and wave the Remember the Beavers! flag.

USC is 4-10 over the last four weeks so the Trojans are not coming to Tucson with momentum. This series is all about the home team. Can the Wildcats get back to throwing strikes? Can they put together good at-bats with men in scoring position?

It would be a shame to see the big series win at ASU go to waste.

Remember the Beavers!

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Scott Terrell will try not to weep. Close out the regular season strong on Twitter and Facebook.

Johnny Field had five hits, two stolen bases and a season-saving catch in the series win at ASU.
Photo by David Kadlubowski/azcentral sports

Why do the Arizona Wildcats and ASU Sun Devils play five college baseball games a year?

Because six might kill us all.

It was another weekend of intense rivalry drama with the Cats escaping Tempe with a series victory and keeping their NCAA tournament hopes flickering.

The three games over the weekend weren’t just close, they were crazy. Friday night’s opener saw the Wildcats sprint out to a 9-0 lead before running out of gas and barely rolling across the finish line with a 10-7 win. The Devil comeback was halted twice, once in the eighth when Johnny Field sprawled out on the warning track dirt to leave the bases loaded, and again in the ninth when Sunday starter Tyler Crawford had to come in and retire the potential tying run three straight times for the save.

The final two games of the series were back-and-forth heart-stoppers as the teams combined to lose five different leads. Arizona State rallied and re-rallied to win 6-3 on Saturday, and Sunday was even wilder. The Sun Devils loaded the bases in both the eighth and ninth in the finale but the UA bullpen turned them back both times, including a rare pitcher-to-catcher-to-first-base double play to clinch the 7-6 victory and the series.

When the dust (and blood pressures) settled Arizona had won its first series in Tempe in eight years. The Cats have taken the season series in consecutive years for the first time since 2005 and ’06.

As an added bonus there’s a strong chance the Wildcats knocked ASU out of a regional hosting slot. There’s a huge difference between playing tournament games at home and traveling to face a powerful team like Cal State Fullerton.

For the weekend’s victors, talk of making the field of 64 begins again. The national writers think it’s too little, too late for Arizona. The Wildcats’ RPI is in the 60s and playing a USC team rated No. 132 isn’t going to help much.

But – and there is a but – as we discussed last week, ending the season winning five of six and finishing .500 in Pac-12 play could get the selection committee to ignore the defending champs’ RPI.

There’s no doubt Arizona has no hope without winning all three games against the Trojans. Can the Cats play well enough to get though an entire weekend unscathed? Can the pitching hold it together for three straight games? That may be a bigger hurdle than the team’s computer ranking.

My gut feeling isn’t good for the Wildcats getting in. However, three weeks ago my gut had Arizona making the tournament. Feel free to believe that gut over this gut.

I cannot deny there’s a chance. Today, right this second, there is hope. That’s what happens when you win a series against a very good team on the road.

That very good team being Arizona’s bitter rival is a pretty sweet bonus.

Photo by David Kadlubowski/azcentral sports

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Scott Terrell’s gut has not been confirmed as a reliable source. Invest at your own risk on Twitter and Facebook.

Johnny Field and the Wildcats are going the wrong way.
Photo by Andy Morales

Last year the Arizona Wildcats and UCLA Bruins met on college baseball’s biggest stage with Arizona prevailing 4-0 on the way to winning the 2012 College World Series.

After UCLA swept the UA this past weekend it looks like only one of the two teams will have a chance to make a return trip to Omaha.

The Wildcats were in desperate need of a series win in Los Angeles but the host Bruins weren’t interested in yielding even a single victory. UCLA won the three games by a combined score of 29-8 and it appears last year’s national champions will be hanging up their cleats before June even begins.

The games on Friday and Sunday were carbon copies of each other (or, for the kids, right-click-Make-a-Copy of each other). The Wildcats started out with a 2-0 lead in both games but things unraveled quickly as UCLA put together a huge inning (seven-run fifth in the opener, six-run third in the finale).

Saturday was just UCLA’s Nick Vander Tuig showing why he’s the Bruins’ leader in wins, innings, complete games, shutouts and ERA among starters. And he doesn’t pitch on Fridays. That’s how you go 34-14 without a single .300 hitter in your lineup.

Last week we said if the Cats were going to turn this around it would have to be the veteran players leading the charge. It hasn’t happened. In the past three Pac-12 series Johnny Field, Trent Gilbert and Brandon Dixon are a combined 22-for-104 at the plate for a .212 average. The trio only has two extra base hits between them over the last two weeks.

It hasn’t looked much better on the mound. Konner Wade and James Farris have averaged less than six innings per start the last three conference series, allowing 27 earned runs combined (34 total runs) for a 7.22 ERA. Looking at the numbers it’s no wonder the UA won just a pair of games over that span.

Are the juniors and experienced sophomores pressing? It’s hard for three or four guys to carry an entire lineup and it’s hard for starting pitchers to compensate for missing half a lineup. Add in the pressure of knowing what last year looked like and it’s not a very relaxing situation.

So where does this sweep leave Arizona? If Omaha is the goal, the Wildcats are somewhere in Yuma. West Yuma.

The UA’s RPI was 83 going into last Friday. Now it’s projected to be 87, or slightly higher than Cal, a team with a losing record.

The only chance at this point is for the Cats to win at least five of their remaining six games and hope the selection committee puts more weight on the .500 conference record (and Arizona’s reigning champion status) than the RPI.

And on top of all that, this week – oh, by the way – there’s that whole rivalry thing. Wildcats and Sun Devils. The in-state schools split the two non-conference games this season so the winner next week gets bragging rights for the year.

Last season was the first time in six years that Arizona won the season series from Arizona State. No matter what happens with the NCAA tournament it would be a significant achievement to make it two years in a row against the highly-ranked Devils.

Maybe a heated rivalry series is what this UA team needs to let go of the pressure of expectation and get back to execution. Forget about projections and focus on rejections, as in The defending state champions aren’t ready to relinquish that title just yet.

There is a lot on the line this week and that is easy to see, even from West Yuma.

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Scott Terrell knows the rivalry is a season unto itself. Choose sides on Twitter and Facebook.

Mathew Troupe’s strong series wasn’t enough to beat the Huskies.
Photo by Andy Morales

The Arizona Wildcats lost a head-spinner and then a heartbreaker to the Washington Huskies over the weekend at Hi Corbett Field. The series defeat likely moved the UA to the wrong side of the NCAA tournament bubble.

There are nine games left and the Cats will have to win most of them to get a shot at defending their national title.

Friday night was one of those once-in-decade games where absolutely nothing goes right. It was like a Little League contest where your two best pitchers are on a fishing trip and another kid comes down with pink eye. You stand in the outfield watching run after run cross the plate and you know you’re not getting any ice cream.

Sunday was a solid win for the home team so that leaves game two as the deciding factor. Arizona got great pitching Saturday night from James Farris and Mathew Troupe but Washington’s combo of Austin Voth and Trevor Dunlap was one run better. And now the Wildcats’ NCAA tournament hopes have something far worse than pink eye.

Things change that much over a single loss? One run is all that separates “staying the course” from “where’s the panic button?” It sounds harsh but that’s the reality for a young team carrying the title of Defending National Champions.

Last week the Cats’ RPI jumped from 64 to 45 after sweeping a team with a winning record. This week it’s projected to drop all the way into the 80s.

To make matters worse, Stanford took two of three from top-15 Arizona State, allowing the Cardinal to leapfrog Arizona in the RPI. Add in Stanford’s head-to-head series win and the Pac-12 pecking order is clear. If the selection committee draws the line at five Pac teams (the number that got in last year), the UA is the odd team out.

The bad news is the Wildcats now play six straight road games against quality opponents. The good news is winning those games would do wonders to the UA’s tournament profile.

With the number of automatic bids the general thinking is you need an RPI in the mid 40s to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid. Can the Cats still get there? According to Boyd’s World, home of one of the great college baseball math guys, Arizona needs to go 7-2 in its final nine games to get back in the RPI top 45.

The easiest path is to take two of three at both UCLA and ASU and then sweep USC in Tucson. I suppose that “easiest” should be in quotes because winning the final three series will be all kinds of of difficult.

That’s what happens when you pick a terrible time for your worst weekend of the season. Getting swept by Oregon State and Oregon is forgivable because both those teams could be national seeds. Dropping two at Stanford isn’t the end of the world either. But losing a home series to a Washington team creeping up on 30 losses just can’t happen, especially when you were already considered by some to be the last team in the NCAA tournament field.

So the Cats need to go from staggering to streaking right this second. What has to happen to make it happen? It sounds simple but the experienced players need to lead the way. On the mound that’s Farris, Troupe and Konner Wade. At the plate it’s Johnny Field, Trent Gilbert, Brandon Dixon and Riley Moore.

Field was red hot coming into the Washington series but the Huskies held him to one hit in 11 at-bats. Gilbert was also 1-for-11 in the series. With nobody in the bottom half of the lineup slugging above .400 it’s going to be up to the top half to string hits together and generate runs.

On the pitching front, what’s scary is Andy Lopez is so concerned about Wade’s struggles that he’s shuffling his starting rotation this late in the season. One of the keys to 2012’s success was the Cats were able to use the exact same weekend rotation the entire year. For all 15 weeks of the regular season it was Kurt Heyer, followed by Wade and Farris.

This year it took half the season to get Tyler Crawford fitted into the Sunday slot and now Lopez is trying to pull a new ace from the deck.

So playoff baseball starts early for the Cats. This week feels like a regional in that the UA can only afford one loss. Find a way to take two of three from the Bruins and go from there.

The pressure of the postseason brought out the best in last year’s team. We’ll soon found out if the same can be said about this group of Wildcats.

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Scott Terrell finished many a Little League game without ice cream. Stay up to date on the BatCats via Twitter and Facebook.

Johnny Field and the Wildcats are eyeing a return to the postseason.
Photo by Andy Morales

The calendar is about to flip to May, which means the Arizona baseball team is about to hit the home stretch of the 2013 season.

The goal is to get the engine firing on all cylinders, get hot and make a run at defending last year’s national championship.

That is, if the Cats make it into the NCAA tournament at all.

Wait…what?! you say. How would the defending champs not get into the tournament? No, they’re not leading the Pac-12 like last year, but the Cats still have 28 wins and counting!

It’s true that if you just look at the standings everything looks fine:

(Based on Pac-12 loss column)

You can eliminate anyone without a winning overall record so that leaves six Pac-12 teams with a win percentage north of .600. Five Pac teams got into the tournament last year, six the year before that and a conference-record eight in 2010.

The problem comes when you rank those six teams by RPI:

That’s a big drop between teams four and five. What’s the deal? Why is ASU’s 28-12 so much better than Arizona’s 28-14?

It’s the same thing that had UA fans giggling at Herb Sendek’s three Sun Devil hoops squads that won 20 games only to play in the NIT: strength of schedule.

Arizona’s non-league slate consisted of more teams with RPIs worse than 200 (Coppin State, San Jose State, Alabama State) than schools with an RPI better than 100 (San Francisco at 91).

ASU has six wins over top-100 teams and that’s not including a combined 5-4 record against Oregon State, Oregon and UCLA.

But 28 wins are still 28 wins, right? Not anymore.

The NCAA changed its baseball RPI formula before this season and Arizona took a hit. The old RPI was blind to location so there was zero incentive for warm weather schools to play road games. The UA took full advantage, playing 75% of its out-of-conference games at home in 2011 and 80% at Hi Corbett Field last year.

That percentage actually got even higher this year with 88% of the Wildcats’ non-league games in Tucson, even though the new RPI formula makes a home win almost half as valuable as a road victory.

So instead of being in the running to host a regional, this year’s UA team is just trying to make a regional.

It’s far too soon to write Arizona off, however, because you don’t have to go back very far – or leave this conference – to find proof that anything can happen if you get into the tournament. Oregon State won the 2006 College World Series, lost nine players to the draft and slumped to sixth place in the Pac-10 in 2007. The Beavers barely made the tournament, got shipped off to Virginia, rediscovered the magic and went 11-1 in the postseason to win their second straight national title.

At the end of the day, I believe the Cats will get an at-large bid next month. We’re not dealing with BCS computers here; it’s a human selection committee under a much more forgiving microscope than their basketball counterparts. Even if Arizona’s RPI stays where it is, I expect the defending champs to get the benefit of the doubt. It’s good for the tournament and good for the sport to have a name-brand team with some 2012 CWS heroes playing in a regional somewhere with a big bullseye on their chests.

That said, Arizona certainly shouldn’t play like its invitation is already in the mail, which brings us to this Tuesday’s game. ASU makes its second and final visit to Hi Corbett in 2013 at 6 p.m. on Apr. 30. The Wildcats’ comeback two weeks ago remains the UA’s best win of the season (by far) and a second victory over the top-20 Devils would be a nice resume booster.

The Cats have 13 games left in ’13. Thirteen games to decide if they’re going to get to put on the bullseye and go hunting for that magic.

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Scott Terrell sees no reason for the season to end in May. Get game updates on Twitter and previews and commentary on Facebook.

It's safe to smile again after the win at NC State.
Photo by Chris Morrison/US Presswire

The funk has lifted.

The Arizona Wildcats basketball team returned to feeling good after posting its best non-conference win of the season at North Carolina State.

How should we be feeling about the Cats returning to the NCAA tournament?

After the sleepwalking against Fullerton, the beating vs. BYU, and the awkwardness against NAU, a double-digit win without trailing in the 2nd half was a welcome sight.

There’s one final tune-up (Robert Morris on Wednesday night at 6:30 p.m.) before the start of Pac-10 play. At this point we’ve got a good handle on what to expect from this team.

Rebounding is going to be a challenge for the 2011 Wildcats. It’ll have to be a team effort with Jesse Perry and Kyryl Natyazhko pulling down boards off the bench and Solomon Hill and Kevin Parrom contributing from the wings.

Jamelle Horne is what he is. He’ll tease you with high-flying acrobatics and deep threes but he’ll frustrate you with turnovers inbounding the ball and tipping rebounds into the wrong basket. If you were holding out hope the senior would have an epiphany you’re going to have to leave that to the Magi.

The outside shooting will remain inconsistent. Starters Kyle Fogg and MoMo Jones are both at 30% shooting from beyond the arc. Brendon Lavender and Jordin Mayes are decent off the bench but neither is a threat to score 20 points.

Then again, that could be said about the entire team. Besides Derrick Williams the other Cats combined have only two 20-point games. Hill had 20 against Santa Clara and Jones hit 20 after a lot of garbage-time scoring against BYU.

With such a heavy reliance on one guy it’s not surprising that zones have been successful against this team. Surround Williams on every touch and dare the other guys to beat you. When the shot goes up secure the defensive rebound and you’re off and running.

That’s what made the win against NC State so satisfying. Arizona barely broke 70 yet won by 10 thanks to holding the Wolfpack to 32% shooting. The energy was great in the second half and at the end of the game the Cats were defending like they were the ones trailing.

Yes, North Carolina State was missing its best player due to injury. That could work in the UA’s favor a second time if he can come back and lead NCSU to a solid year in ACC play. Life on the NCAA tournament bubble means it’s never too early to start rooting for the teams you played to enhance your resume.

Is Arizona a bubble team? The 10-2 record combined with the low strength of schedule says yes. The Cats estimated RPI was at 62 before this weekend which means they’re in the discussion if they can keep piling up wins.

How many wins need to be on this pile?

Here’s a look at the final teams to get at-large bids in each of the last three tournaments:

Looking at Minnesota and Florida from last year, Maryland from 2009 and Baylor in 2008, 21 wins seems like a fair target for getting RPI-challenged BCS-conference teams into the mix.

That means Arizona needs at least 11 more wins, including Robert Morris. It would also help if some of those wins were against the projected top of the Pac-10: Washington, WSU and the BYU-killers of UCLA.

The good news is the Cats start Pac-10 play with the two worst teams in the league in the Oregon schools. The bad news is the games are on the road. The worst news is they’re after a seven-day layoff over Christmas.

The optimism is certainly back after winning a game in ACC country. It won’t be long now before we see how optimism stacks up with reality.

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Scott Terrell is optimistic that you like Facebook and Twitter.

Who will be the Wildcats’ hero…like Kyle Williams last year?
Photo by Rob Schumacher/The Arizona Republic

Arizona vs. Arizona State.

The Wildcats’ bowl options have become clear.

Arizona vs. Arizona State.

Juron Criner may be playing his final home game.

Did I mention it’s Arizona vs. Arizona State?

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Here’s my one note from the Oregon game: Juron Criner is really, really good.

Just in case Criner ends up in the NFL next year make sure you take the time to appreciate his greatness. It’s been overshadowed by the team’s recent struggles but Juron has dialed it up about 12 notches since the start of Pac-10 play to put together one of the best seasons ever by an Arizona receiver.

Criner’s 67 receptions this year are the 6th best single-season mark in UA history. His 1,091 receiving yards are the 4th most in school history. The eight touchdown catches are just three shy of Arizona’s all-time record for a season. All this while hobbling around most of the year with multiple leg and foot injuries.

Thursday may be Senior Night at Arizona Stadium but reserve an extra hand for the junior with the great hands.

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The Pac-10 bowl bubble has only two teams left:

ALREADY IN:
Oregon (11-0)
Stanford (11-1)
Arizona (7-4)

BUBBLE IN:
Washington (5-6)

BUBBLE OUT:
OSU (5-6)

NOT ELIGIBLE:
ASU (4-6*)
Cal (5-7)
UCLA (4-7)
WSU (2-9)
USC (Bushed)

(*ASU’s second FCS win not included.)

The last two bowl bids come down to two rivalry games. Washington is very glad their rival is the worst team in the league while Oregon State is lamenting the fact their rival is the best.

Even though Arizona State can no longer earn the six valid wins necessary to qualify for the postseason the Sun Devils refuse to give up their bowl dreams. They aren’t going to let silly things like “rules” and “math” get in the way.

Oregon will play in either the BCS championship game or the Rose Bowl. Stanford will finish in the BCS top four and get invited to either the Fiesta Bowl or Orange Bowl, which means the 2010 Cardinal will not suffer the same fate as the 1998 Wildcats. What Luck.

Arizona will play in either the Alamo Bowl on Wed. Dec. 29 or the Holiday Bowl on Thu. Dec. 30. If the Cats beat ASU it means a trip to San Antonio. The Alamo Bowl could still invite Arizona even after a loss since the UA would be the only seven-win Pac-10 team available, but I doubt it. If Washington beats WSU look for the Alamo to take a 6-6 Husky team on a three-game winning streak over a 7-5 Wildcat team on a four-game losing streak.

So the Wildcats could play in the Pac-10’s second-best bowl for the second straight year. Get your “I smell Davy Crockett!” signs ready.

All it takes is one win.

ASU won by three touchdowns last week while Arizona lost by 19. Advantage Sun Devils, right? Not so fast, Lee Corso‘s friends. Two games in the Mike Stoops era taught us to never trust momentum in this series: the 2004 UA win and the 2006 loss, both in Tucson.

Stoops’ first team was 2-8 after losing to USC by 40. The Cats had no chance to beat 8-2 ASU…except they beat 8-2 ASU.

Two years later Mo’s shoe was on the other foot as the Wildcats came into the Territorial Cup game riding a three-game winning streak to clinch bowl eligibility. There was no way they were going to lose at home to a mediocre ASU team…until Rudy Carpenter threw three touchdown passes in the first quarter.

You can throw the records out the window and that includes the November records. The team that hoists the Cup will be the team that plays the best for 3.5 hours on Thu. Dec. 2, 2010.

My one key to this game: Brooks Reed and Ricky Elmore. OK, maybe that’s two keys, but you get the idea. Arizona’s senior defensive ends were having a dominant season with 13.5 combined sacks going into the Stanford game. Now the pair has…13.5 sacks. The Wildcats as a team haven’t sacked the opposing quarterback once during the three-game losing streak. If that stat doesn’t change the losing streak will reach four.

ASU QB Brock Osweiler played tremendously well off the bench versus UCLA, but the 27 passes he completed last week were pretty close to the 37 completions he tallied in his first 22 games as a Sun Devil. This is not an experienced quarterback.

Osweiler has thrown for 779 yards in his career. Nick Foles has thrown for 801 yards in his last two games.

If Reed and Elmore can get to the quarterback on a regular basis there will be turnovers which should give Foles and Criner enough opportunities to score the points necessary to keep the Territorial Cup in Tucson for a third straight year.

Get out your rivalry haikus and pizza delivery smack.

It’s Arizona vs. Arizona State.

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(Looking for some friendly rivals? Try Facebook and Twitter!)

There may be no easy buckets but there are some easy games.
Photo by Pat Shannahan/The Arizona Republic

I hope you loaded up on Thanksgiving protein because you’ve got your fan work cut out for you.

It’s game day x 2. Then tomorrow is game day again.

I don’t blame you if you’re focused on the Arizona Wildcats’ football game this evening. When the entire college sporting world is watching your favorite team play it’s kind of a big deal. The Oregon Ducks are trying to make history and the Cats are trying to stomp all over it.

But you’re going to have to do some multitasking this weekend. No matter what happens in Eugene life will go on for the Wildcat Universe. For the UA men’s basketball team it goes on quickly and in a big way.

The BasketCats take on Santa Clara in Las Vegas tonight at 8:30 Arizona time (live on KWBA), right after the football game. Then it’s a showdown with #4 Kansas, 8:30 p.m. Saturday on ESPN.

Don’t write this game off just because the turkey isn’t even cold yet. It’s not merely an early-season measuring stick game. The measurements from Saturday will go on the ’10-’11 Wildcats’ permanent record.

The game with the Jayhawks is a potentially big resume-boost for an Arizona team trying to get back into the NCAA tournament. That part is obvious. What’s different is this year’s UA resume is going to be short a few references.

The bad losses are already starting to pile up for the Pac-10. Oregon losing to San Jose State, OSU losing to Seattle and Texas Southern, Stanford losing to Murray State, and USC losing to Rider and Bradley (which could either be the name of a country group or a bad morning show).

It is already clear there won’t be a lot of quality wins available within Pac-10 play for the second straight year. That’s where the nonconference schedule comes in and, in a situation unfamiliar to Wildcat fans, this year’s schedule is on the light side.

Here’s a list of everyone the Cats will be facing before the start of Pac-10 action. For last year’s numbers I used the final RPI rankings and for this year we have the Pomeroy Ratings.

Team	’09-’10	’10-’11
Idaho St.	309	326
New Mexico St.	56	197
No. Colorado	124	136
Bethune-Cookman	256	253
Santa Clara	238	128
Kansas	1	3
Rice	311	144
Oklahoma	128	111
Cal St. Fullerton	204	300
BYU	24	7
NAU	200	161
No. Carolina St.	88	38
Robert Morris	133	142

The bottom line is this is not a good schedule for a bubble team.

You’ll notice a lack of the usual slew of top-50 and top-100 RPI games. When Arizona has “stolen” a tournament bid from a small-conference team with 23 or 24 wins in recent years, strength of schedule has been the savior.

The tables could very well be turned this year.

It terms of resume-building it’s basically a three-game schedule: Kansas this Saturday in Vegas, at BYU Dec. 11, and at NC State Dec. 19. You really want to win at least one which will be tough with none of them at McKale.

So pace yourself, Cat fans. The football clash with Oregeddon is the day’s headliner but don’t forget to switch over and watch Sean Miller’s boys take on Santa Clara. Then you’ve got a short turnaround before one of the key basketball games of the year.

Is that enough red and blue excitement for you?

Better keep those Thanksgiving leftovers handy.

The Cats will try to get right without Wright.
Photo by Chris Morrison/US Presswire

Morale is down in the football portion of the Wildcat Universe.

The Stanford loss was deflating. The USC loss was depressing. Two more losses would be devastating.

Not the best time to be playing the #1 team in the land. Or is it?

First a look at the Pac-10 bowl bubble:

ALREADY IN:
Oregon (10-0)
Stanford (10-1)
Arizona (7-3)

BUBBLE IN:
Cal (5-6)

BUBBLE OUT:
Washington (4-6)
UCLA (4-6)
OSU (5-5)

NOT ELIGIBLE:
ASU (3-6*)
WSU (2-9)
USC (stricken)

(*ASU’s second FCS win not included.)

Washington beating UCLA did not help. The new best-case scenario is…

Cal – beats Washington = 6-6
UCLA – beats ASU and USC = 6-6
OSU – loses to Stanford and Oregon = 5-7
Washington – loses to Cal, beats WSU = 5-7
ASU – loses to UCLA and Arizona = 4-8

I guess Oregon State doesn’t feel worse than Arizona any more. Yes, the true “best-case scenario” is OSU pulling off a huge upset to get win #6, but let’s not get crazy. The reality is the Beavers will spend the offseason lamenting their loss to the Wazzu Cougz.

With Cal and UCLA both losing the UA will have the 3rd best record among Pac-10 bowl teams. OSU isn’t going to beat both Stanford and Oregon in back-to-back weeks and nobody else can get to seven wins. Although, the Wildcats really want to see that number get to eight.

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TWIT-Pac is early to get you ready for the holiday action. Here’s the Pac-10 football TV schedule:

Fri. Nov. 26 (all times Arizona/Mountain)

Road Team	Home Team	Time	TV
UCLA	ASU	1:30 p.m.	FSN
ARIZONA	Oregon	5 p.m.	ESPN/ESPN3.com

Sat. Nov. 27

Washington	Cal	1:30 p.m.	CSN CA
OSU	Stanford	5:30 p.m.	Versus
Notre Dame	USC	6 p.m.	ABC/ESPN3.com

UCLA (4-6 / 2-5) at ASU (4-6 / 2-5)
The Bruins haven’t won on the road since beating Texas. The Sun Devils will have to dig deep if they want to find a way to lose this one.

Who do Wildcat fans want to win?
UCLA. Having ASU come into the Territorial Cup game on a three-game losing streak would be preferred…especially if the Cats end up on their own three-game losing streak.

ARIZONA (7-3 / 4-3) at Oregon (10-0 / 7-0)
Much more on this game below, but former Oregon coach Mike Bellotti made news this week by pulling himself out of the running for the Colorado head coaching job. It was strange that he was even showing interest. In the shopping mall of athletic resources that would’ve been like going from the Nike outlet to the health food store.

Washington (4-6 / 3-4) at Cal (5-6 / 3-5)
The Huskies won at home last week to stop the bleeding. Can U-Dub win one on the road to try and salvage Jake Locker’s senior season?

Who do Wildcat fans want to win?
Cal. Yes, the Huskies could get into a bowl with a win here and at WSU next week, but in this year’s Pac-10 you don’t want to assume anybody on the bowl bubble can stay hot for long.

OSU (5-5 / 4-3) at Stanford (10-1 / 7-1)
It’s the final game for the Cardinal before they sit around and hope for some BCS help.

Who do Wildcat fans want to win?
Stanford. It would be nice to have an extra Pac team get bowl eligible but it would be nicer to have an 11-1 team ready to take on a Big Ten or SEC team in a big-league bowl.

Notre Dame (6-5) at USC (7-4 / 4-4)
At what point do these two schools decide to take a break from this series until they’re both good again?

Who do Wildcat fans want to win?
USC. Our fallen titan is better than your fallen titan.

WSU (2-9 / 1-7) – bye
When you’ve just posted your second conference win in three years you deserve two extra weeks to celebrate.

- – -

I miss having Arizona and ASU play the day after Thanksgiving but it’ll be nice to watch them both on the same day. Unless, of course, the home favorite wins both games.

The Wildcats certainly have their work cut out for them at Autzen Stadium. If you thought Oregon’s offense was complicated, check out their fan instructions. Instead of a “black-out” or a “yellow-out” they’re going to try and do both.

Stanford wasn’t supposed to be 10-1 and Oregon wasn’t supposed to be 10-0. The thought was the Ducks couldn’t be as good as last year because Darron Thomas couldn’t be as good as Jeremiah Masoli in the clutch. The fact is, we still don’t know because Thomas hasn’t truly been tested yet.

Oregon hasn’t trailed in the 4th quarter once this entire season. Not one second. The Ducks played the whole final quarter against Cal with a two-point lead but their quarterback has not been asked to lead a late-game comeback.

The Ducks have been prone to slow starts. Down 13-3 to Tennessee. Down 24-14 to ASU. Down 21-3 to Stanford. But all those deficits were in the first half. The trick is forcing a slow start and then getting far enough ahead to hold on.

How do you build a big lead? Touchdowns. You will not beat Oregon with field goals so there’s no point in trying. Every time the Cats get inside the 20 it needs to be four-down territory. Alex Zendejas need not apply.

A great way to start fast is with special teams, a la the Iowa game. That makes Bug Wright’s suspension a significant loss. David Douglas’ longest career punt return is four yards. That’s one yard for each of Oregon punt returner Cliff Harris’ touchdowns this year. Slight advantage for the black and yellow.

Will this game be like 2007 when #2 Oregon lost to the Cats? Will it be like last year when the first-place Ducks won a thriller? Or will it be like 2008 when Oregon scored 45 points in the first half?

It’s not every day that a ranked team is a three-touchdown underdog but that’s how dominant Oregon has been at home. An Arizona win would register on the Tavita-Pritchard-over-USC scale.

The Wildcats have done it before.

Here comes Oregeddon.

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Bonus info! The upcoming Pac-10 basketball schedule!

Wed. Nov. 24
Michigan St. vs. Washington
UCLA vs. Villanova
Charlotte at OSU
CS Fullerton at USC

Thu. Nov. 25
Temple at Cal
Houston Baptist at ASU
Murray St. at Stanford

Fri. Nov. 26
WSU at Fresno St.
Santa Clara vs. ARIZONA – 8:30 p.m., KWBA

Sat. Nov. 27
Duke at Oregon
ARIZONA vs. Kansas – 8:30 p.m., ESPN2
USC at Nebraska
OSU at Howard

Mon. Nov. 29
USC at TCU

Tue Nov. 30
Long Beach St. at Washington
Sacramento St. at WSU

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(What are you thankful for? I give thanks for everyone who follows me on Facebook and Twitter?)

The Pac-10’s bowl hopes lie with Brehaut. Richard Brehaut.
Photo by Gary A. Vasquez/US Presswire

What’s worse than losing to Stanford, USC and (maybe) Oregon?

Losing to Washington State and then losing to Stanford, USC and Oregon.

As bad as the Arizona Wildcats feel the Oregon State Beavers feel worse. The UA will still be playing in a bowl game while OSU’s postseason chances are on life support following losses to lowly Washington and UCLA even before the debacle against Wazzu.

See? There are still positives to be found in the Wildcat Universe. You just have to look really hard.

- – -

Did Oregon State destroy the Pac-10 bowl bubble? Not yet. The Pac can still get five teams into bowls. Here’s how:

ALREADY IN:
Oregon (10-0)
Stanford (9-1)
Arizona (7-3)

BUBBLE IN:
Cal (5-5)

BUBBLE OUT:
UCLA (4-5)
OSU (4-5)
Washington (3-6)

NOT ELIGIBLE:
ASU (3-6*)
WSU (2-9)
USC (banished)

(*ASU’s second FCS win not included.)

The new best-case scenario is…

Cal – loses to Stanford, beats Washington = 6-6
UCLA – beats Washington and ASU, loses to USC = 6-6
OSU – loses to USC, Stanford and Oregon, doesn’t get anybody seriously injured = 4-8
Washington – loses to UCLA and Cal, beats WSU = 4-8
ASU – loses to UCLA and Arizona = 4-8

Unfortunately, I think Arizona State is going to beat UCLA in Tempe the day after Thanksgiving which would have the Sun Devils coming to Tucson with an FCS-aided 5-6 record. ASU would still have the hope that there won’t be enough eligible teams to fill the 35 bowls so they can get a pity invite.

If the Devils do get to 6-6 it would mean the Alamo Bowl might be stuck with a 7-5 Arizona team on a four-game losing streak. I don’t think that’s what the folks in San Antonio had in mind when they signed on to take the #2 pick from the Pac-10.

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Are you already lamenting the Cats’ bye week? TWIT-Pac Lite is here to help!

Thu. Nov. 18 – 6 p.m. Arizona/Mountain Time, ESPN/ESPN3.com

UCLA (4-5 / 2-4) at Washington (3-6 / 2-4)
This is actually the most intriguing Pac-10 game of the week. The winner will have honest-to-goodness bowl aspirations for another week. What more can you ask for when two 7th-place teams square off on national TV?

Who do Wildcat fans want to win?
UCLA. The Bruins winning twice is more likely than the Huskies winning thrice. Plus Cat fans want the Bruins to get good at winning November road games.

- – -

Unless something crazy happens this will be the last installment of the Survivor Rankings:

1. Oregon
2. Stanford
X. ARIZONA
X. Oregon State
X. Cal
X. Washington
X. Arizona State
X. UCLA
X. Washington State
X. USC

It’s very simple: If Stanford wins their final two games and Oregon loses their final two games the Cardinal win the championship. Any other result and the Ducks clinch their second straight Pac-10 title.

Borrrring. But that’s what happens when the two great teams play early in the year and the rest of the teams are far from great. At least we still have BCS drama, and who doesn’t love BCS drama?

- – - – -

On to the additional thoughts from the USC game.

(Don’t stop reading now! There’s basketball talk below!)

We’re going to borrow a rule from my 3rd grade teacher and declare that every time you say something negative you have to follow it up with something positive. Challenge accepted.

- – -

Negative:
USC converted its first four red zone opportunities into 24 points. The Wildcats’ first four red zone trips included a missed field goal and a fumble. What was Arizona’s best option for scoring inside the 20 this year? He caught three touchdown passes from Tom Brady Sunday night. UA fans will always cheer for GRONK! in the NFL but every time he crosses the goal line a Wildcat will think, “Why couldn’t he have played with Nick Foles? Not even one time?!?”

Positive:
Terrence Miller locked up the team’s 2010 Most Improved award in just one week. After looking like his hands were allergic to leather against Stanford he doubled his season totals with seven catches for 116 yards against USC. Can the 6-4 sophomore be the down-the-middle threat the Cats have so desperately needed? A bye week is a great opportunity to get a young guy ready to take on an increased role and find out.

- – -

Negative:
It’s true the offense was down three starters due to injury (four if you count guard Vaughn Dotsy who hasn’t played all year). But the second-line receivers did just fine, and injuries don’t make you fumble in the red zone, or fail to read a corner blitz, or miss a short field goal.

Positive:
The Arizona offense converted an impressive 11-of-16 third downs (69%) but it was even more incredible than that. The Cats attempted to pass 15 times on third down and Nick Foles completed 14 of them. Foles was 14-of-15 for 166 yards, 10 first downs and two touchdowns on third down alone.

Usually you try to avoid third down. The Wildcats should have just taken a knee on first and second down.

- – -

Negative:
It was the first loss for the white helmets/red pants combo after a 4-0 start.

Positive:
The White-Red-White and White-Red-Blue combos are still unblemished and available for the ASU game.

- – -

Negative:
Arizona’s first punt was with three minutes left in the 3rd quarter yet the team only had 14 points. How do you pull that off? 1) Fail in the red zone. 2) Give up drives lasting 8:57 and 6:48. 3) Only have one full possession in the 2nd quarter.

Positive:
Arizona’s first punt was with three minutes left in the 3rd quarter!

- – -

Negative:
Those long USC drives were a new way for the Wildcat defense to get beat. The Trojans were the first team to dominate the UA on the ground from the opening kickoff. Even Stanford’s first two touchdown drives were the result of 148 passing yards compared to just 19 via the rush.

Positive:
The secondary didn’t get beat deep!

- – -

Negative:
Things Nobody Else Does

Offsides on offense. Not a false start, offsides. Wide receiver David Douglas didn’t move before the snap, he just stood in the wrong place. Strangest loss of five yards I’ve seen in a while.

Positive:
Douglas’ two touchdowns increased his career total by 50%. Thanks, roomie!

- – -

Negative:
Alex Zendejas attempted five kicks including one that got called back due to a penalty. Three of the five were deflected.

Positive:
Zendejas’ first punt of the year was nicely angled out of bounds at the 6.

- – -

Negative:
Zendejas’ second punt of the year only went 30 yards.

Positive:
It wasn’t blocked!

- – -

Negative:
Seeing Steve McLaughlin getting his jersey retired at halftime reminded Wildcat fans how rare it is to witness such poor punting and kicking at Arizona.

Positive:
The Cactus Comet was there! Anybody who can run for 3,000 yards without a facemask is a hero in my book.

- – -

Negative:
After 27 sacks in their first eight games the UA defense was shut out for the second straight week.

Positive:
You got me on this one. The other team’s quarterback had a very pleasant evening?

- – -

Negative:
Losing two straight games drops Arizona to a mediocre 4-3 in conference play.

Positive:
There are still three more opportunities to watch the Cats play in 2010 and momentum can shift in a hurry in college football.

- – -

Negative:
The first of those three games is at #1 Oregon.

Positive:
It’s time for that basketball talk!

You read the in-game commentary. You saw the highlights. It’s hard to think of a better start to a season than scoring 90 points and holding a team scoreless for an 11-minute stretch.

My main question going into the year was: Where are the Cats going to go for scoring when Derrick Williams is off the court (or just off)?

One game is one game but it was still encouraging to see the all-around play of Solomon Hill (10 points and 8 rebounds, including 3 on the offensive end), and the outside shooting of Brendon Lavender and freshman Jordin Mayes (combined 6-of-9 on threes) off the bench.

I fully expect the team defense to be better this year. The players have a full year of experience with Sean Miller’s system and expectations, and the team has enough athletes to keep guys fresh. But even if you have a 17-man rotation it doesn’t do you any good if you can’t put the ball in the bucket.

The season opener was certainly a positive.

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(Negative: This post is done. Positive: Learn about the next one on Facebook and Twitter!)