Please don’t get hurt please don’t get hurt please don’t get hurt…
Photo by Deirdre Hamil/The Arizona Republic

If you’re like me the Olympics were only partly about athletic achievement, national pride and parachuting monarchs.

The London games were mainly about passing the time from the end of the College World Series to the start of the college football season.

I am proud to say we made it. It’s Game Week. Now, what should we expect from the Arizona Wildcats and this Rich Rodriguez fellow in 2012?

As is our tradition in these parts, it’s time to establish the Line of Agonizing Disappointment, the minimum number of wins required for the season to feel like a success to a particular fan. What makes it even more interesting than normal is, for the first time since we’ve been doing this, Arizona has a new head football coach.

Normally when you have a coaching change all expectations go into the recycle bin. A new staff with new systems on both sides of the ball usually means a rebuilding period. Add in last year’s 4-8 record (the kind of record that tends to lead to coaching changes) and there typically isn’t any reason for optimism heading into Year One under a new regime.

But the Wildcats have two unique reasons for hope: eight home games and Matt Scott.

The UA hasn’t played eight games at Arizona Stadium in a single season since 1988. When you’re playing as many home games as an NFL team you’ve got a big advantage.

Then you have quarterback Scott falling into RichRod’s lap. Look at everything that had to happen to get to this point:

• Scott backed up Willie Tuitama as a true freshman in 2008 even though he only threw 11 passes all year
• Scott was beat out by Nick Foles
• Foles was really, really good
• Foles didn’t get hurt until the 4th quarter of the ASU game last year, allowing Scott to redshirt
• Mike Stoops was fired
• The guy who invented the zone-read spread offense was hired

Matt Scott was built for an offense like this. He was recruited because Sonny Dykes and Stoops saw the UA’s spread attack moving in this direction.

When Rodriguez was hired at Michigan, pro-style quarterback Ryan Mallett couldn’t get out of town fast enough. When RichRod came to Tucson, Matt Scott probably did a dance of joy.

This is a good play for Taimi Tutogi…if he’s on defense.
Photo by Deirdre Hamil/The Arizona Republic

Granted, Scott hasn’t taken meaningful snaps in a season and a half. It’s certainly concerning that neither of Arizona’s two player reps at Pac-12 Media Day (Jake Fischer being the other) played a single down last year. It’s also not recommended to be so thin on defense that you’re asking your starting H-back to double as your pass-rushing specialist.

But, hey, this is the preseason and the pre-era for Rodriguez. The judges are allowing extra positivity.

(I will say, though, whatever record Arizona ends up with this year, shave one or two wins off next year’s goal. A rookie QB playing six road games is a good recipe for a year that looks like a typical early season in a new coach’s rebuilding project, but we’ll complain about that bridge when we get to it.)

A senior quarterback with the necessary skills, an experienced offensive line, a decent selection of backs and receivers and the eight games in Tucson. Six wins and getting the upper classmen another bowl game seems like a reasonable goal.

To make it happen the Toledo and South Carolina State games are must-win and it looks like three wins will have to come out of the home stretch: at UCLA, Colorado, at Utah, ASU. That makes Oregon State at home on Sep. 29 a critical game, perhaps the turning point/crossroads/fulcrum of the season. Lose that one and you’d have to beat Washington’s high-scoring offense or run the table in November.

If the Cats can go into the bye week at 3-3 they’ll have four of the final six at home with only one currently-ranked team on the schedule. Another 3-3 stretch does not seem impossible.

I can’t call it a firm LoAD because of the coaching transition. Will I truly be disappointed if the team only wins four or five games but gets better as the year goes on with the young players looking faster and better conditioned?

So we’ll call six wins a GoAD (Goal of Achievable Distance) and go from there.

What if the worst-case scenario happens and the team immediately looks like it needs a complete overhaul with a lot of capital L’s? Then you have an extra beverage at each tailgate, heavy up on patience and keep this trend in mind:

At Glenville State Rodriguez won only one game his first season, then produced a four-win season and a six-win season followed by four straight conference championships.

At West Virginia he went 3-8 before six consecutive seasons with eight-plus wins and four league titles.

Even at Michigan his trajectory was three wins, five wins, seven wins and then his players went 11-2 last year.

There is no cleaner slate in sports than a new coach starting his first season. We’ll see if this team earns any medals at the end of the race.

* * *

I had a lot of fun playing reporter during a very memorable college baseball season. The team did pretty well, don’t you think?

Now I’m back among We The People for football and basketball, buying tickets and watching on TV. Life in the cheap seats.

My football cheap seats have been demolished the last two years, first the Red Zone and then the north end zone bleachers. This year we’re trying the southeast corner in the neighborhood of the band.

I’m curious to see how the new south end zone seats look. I love being on top of the action but I’m more of a stand-and-yell guy than a lean-back-and-use-the-arm-rests kind of spectator. If anyone has seats in the new section G let me know how it goes down there.

It’s going to be a sweaty September at the Stadium but you’ll never hear me complain about four home games in a month.

Let’s play ball.

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Scott Terrell’s cheap seats will include Twitter updates and links on Facebook.

Ka'Deem Carey and Dan Buckner will be newcomers to watch this year.
Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

The haboob of summer sports boredom is about to pass.

The 2011 Arizona Wildcats football season is about to begin!

Finally. It hasn’t been easy watching the Pac-12 and the rest of the college football world playing games but the wait is over. The Cats are about to kick off their season.

It was quite the controversial move when the UA announced it would only be playing seven games this year. Then word got out that season ticket prices would remain the same and the whispers started. There were rumors that the cost of extension cords for the new scoreboard was crippling the budget. Internet speculation was that Sean Miller was demanding a new private jet for every day of the week.

No, it’s just a seven-game football schedule. The “less is more” philosophy applied to the gridiron.

There was a big sigh of relief when the NCAA ruled that Arizona could still qualify for a bowl game in 2011. A waiver was granted and the Cats will be eligible for the postseason with a 5-2 record (or better).

Wildcat Universe isn’t quite sure what to make of the situation but you’ve got to play the hand you’re dealt. Sometimes you’re playing war; sometimes it’s just 7-card stud.

So we go with it and, as we do before the start of any season, it’s time to establish a Line Of Agonizing Disappointment.

The UA is replacing eight of nine starters on both lines. I can’t see into the future or anything, but if defensive tackle Justin Washington were to somehow lose a bunch of weight due to a stomach issue the Wildcats would be perfectly inexperienced in the trenches.

Add it up and some will say the best fan strategy is to throw all expectations out the window and prepare for the worst. I can’t go that far. I still see enough talent to go to another bowl game.

For one thing, have you seen the schedule? There is only one ranked team to be found. No top-10 opponents anywhere. It’s not a death march, it’s a life hike.

That’s my LOAD: Go to a bowl game; win the bowl game.

What is the roadmap to five wins? The formula is very straight-forward: You must beat the teams with losing records – Oregon State (0-4), UCLA (2-3) and Colorado (1-4) – and the team from the Sun Belt (Louisiana-Lafayette). That leaves three games to get one win: at 4-1 Washington, 2-2 Utah at home, at 4-1 ASU. Here it is visually:

Arizona Wildcats 2011 Football Schedule, Abridged

The thing with a seven-game season is there are no warm-up games. Game #1 is must-win. Win that and you get another must-win game. The pressure is on right now.

There are three reasons for optimism: Nick Foles, Nick Foles and Nick Foles.

If the season had started in September the UA offensive line wouldn’t have been ready and Foles would’ve taken a bunch of hits. With five extra weeks of practice, however, the hope is pass protection will be better and the slight threat of a running game will open up things like play-action bootleg passes to Taimi Tutogi.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say true freshman Ka’Deem Carey will play a significant role this year. Texas transfer Dan Buckner is another player to watch and I suspect he’ll have a real chance to lead the team in receptions. Juron Criner had a rough offseason and there may be lingering effects from a sudden surgery. I can’t divulge my sources but the procedure rhymes with “bappendectomy.”

The word out of training camp is to expect nothing from the Arizona defense. Zero. Actually, expect a really big number, as in allowing FBS teams to score 44.5 points per game. Give or take.

So that brings us back to Nick Foles Nick Foles Nick Foles. Keep him on the field, give him time, and let the Big Ocho throw the ball all over the field.

I completely understand that not all Wildcat fans are on board with this reduced schedule. Some say play all 12 games or don’t even bother. That’s fine. See you next year. A full schedule will be played in 2012 and each game will have big-picture ramifications when it comes to the future of Arizona Football.

But for right now, seven is what you get.

There’s nothing like the start of a new season. The team begins with a clean slate and the chance to write its own destiny. Seven games from Oct. 8 through Nov. 26. Three home games. Five wins needed to play in December.

For real this time.

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Scott Terrell has his story and he’s sticking to it. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook all season long.

Will Juron Criner and the Cats take a step sideways?
Photo by David Kadlubowski/The Arizona Republic

The haboob of summer sports boredom is about to pass.

The first football game of the Pac-12 era kicks off on Thursday. Two days later the Arizona Wildcats host the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at 7 p.m. in Tucson. If you need to get things done before the college football season you’re running out of time.

It’s also time to set your expectations for your favorite team.

Every fan should establish a Line Of Agonizing Disappointment before the season starts. A LOAD shows where you are on the spectrum of optimism for that particular year and it serves as a handy reference point when the season is done and you’re trying to decide if you liked what you saw.

For the UA, last year was a disappointment. There’s no way around it. It was supposed to be a peak year and the 7-1 start backed that up. But the losing streak killed all momentum and didn’t leave anybody feeling good about the season.

This year is the complete opposite in many ways. There is no talk of a peak season. The predictions are out and most of them have Arizona in the same mediocre spot.

You can’t blame them. The UA is replacing eight of nine starters on both lines. ACLs have been tearing like one-ply toilet paper.

The schedule is also rugged. Last year Arizona didn’t face a Pac-10 bowl team until the week before Halloween. This year the Cats will have played three top-10 squads before the temperature dips below triple digits.

Add it up and some will say the best fan strategy is to throw all expectations out the window and prepare for the worst. I can’t go that far. I still see enough talent to go to another bowl game and post another winning season.

Both of those feats would be monumental for the Arizona program. Four straight bowls would be a first. Posting four straight winning seasons is rare:

Most consecutive winning seasons in Arizona football history
10….1900-1912 (no team in 1903, ’06, ’07)
9…..1914-1923 (no team in 1918)
6…..1981-1986
5…..1926-1930
5…..1933-1937
5…..1939-1945 (no team in 1943, ’44)
4…..1992-1995

So seven wins ties Mike Stoops for the second longest streak since World War II.

That’s my LOAD. Seven wins. But there’s an asterisk. One of the wins has to be in a bowl game.

Nick Foles could leave here with every passing record in the books. He can’t go 0-3 in the postseason.

That’s my Line Of Agonizing Disappointment: Go to a bowl game; win the bowl game.

How do the Wildcats get there? The schedule easily splits into two halves, conveniently broken up by the team’s only bye week. The first half of the season looks like this:

NAU
@ Okla. St.
Stanford
Oregon
@ USC
@ Ore. St.

Arizona will be undercats in all five games after NAU. I think it’s safe to say there will be no 7-1 start this year.

Here’s the home stretch:

UCLA
@ Washington
Utah
@ Colorado
@ ASU
Louisiana-Lafayette

Certainly not easy with the three road games, but far more manageable. The bottom line is you can’t give up on this team even if the nightmare comes true and Arizona starts 1-5. A 5-1 finish is not impossible.

Obviously the road to a bowl is much easier if the UA can steal an extra win in the first half. Start 2-4 and the team can go 4-2 down the stretch if morale stays up (and the players upgrade to two-ply knee ligaments).

If they start 3-3? Better start adding heavily to that holiday travel fund.

Even if things go south and the win total isn’t where anyone wants it to be it’s not going to be a dull season. This team will not lose boringly. There will be lots of highlights in the passing game, and those highlights will be shown on a huge new video board at Arizona Stadium.

Can mediocrity be improved with high-def? You’ll have to draw your own line there.

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Here’s a challenge for all Wildcat fans on Twitter this year: Own the #BearDown hashtag. Some people use #ArizonaWildcats while others use #UofA. The former is too long and the latter is too generic. Make #BearDown your own. Fans of the Chicago Bears also use it but the Button Salmon tradition predates the NFL fight song by 15 years.

Tell them… Tell the Twitterers to use #BearDown…

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@Scott_Terrell will be admiring the new scoreboard on Saturday but will be missing the Red Zone. Look for replays on Twitter and Facebook.

Mike Stoops has his eyes in the vicinity of the prize.
Photo by Kirby Lee, US Presswire

The case has been made that 2010 needs to be a peak season for Mike Stoops and the Arizona Wildcat football team.

How many wins make up a peak?

Now it’s time to put a number on it, and that number could be different for every fan. It’s the number of wins you think is realistically achievable and anything less will be viewed as failure. It’s the proverbial setting of the bar. It’s the Line Of Agonizing Disappointment.

Establishing a LOAD has been my preseason ritual for six years now. The goal isn’t to try and predict the result of each game but to break up the schedule and set a target for each chunk.

The first segment in this year’s UA schedule consists of the three non-conference games. A good team should win the first two games, even with the opener on the road. The Iowa game is a freebie. A win turns heads nationally but a loss doesn’t change any of the team’s goals. Oregon’s season wasn’t over when it lost to Boise State last year.

The matchup with the Hawkeyes is certainly an opportunity for the Cats. Last year it took seven games (and five wins) to crack the top 25. This year it would only take three.

If Arizona does end up with a 2-1 start, what kind of Pac-10 record would make the season feel like a success? Anything worse than last year obviously won’t cut it. Posting another 6-3 league record would produce mixed emotions but if you tack on a bowl victory I could be talked into it. A 7-2 Pac-10 mark would certainly be embraced as a success.

Let it be written: The LOAD is nine wins.

Before you start hammering your keyboard to point out I just got done saying this year needs to be a peak so “settling” for nine wins as a peak is a “loser’s mentality,” ponder this for a moment: What would the Cats’ regular season record have been last year if they beat Oregon? Which bowl would they have played in? Yes, 9-3 and, yes, that one. Oregon State would’ve finished 9-3 if it had beaten Oregon in either of the past two seasons, and the Beavers would’ve won the title either time.

Nine wins can be a dream season. You just have to win the right nine.

There are two paths to the Pac-10 championship from Tucson:

1) Win all your home games, split at Stanford and Oregon and hope the team you lose to loses to two other people.

2) The USC model, which is to lose to a bad team or two but beat all the good teams. For example the 2006 Trojans lost to 5-4 UCLA and 6-3 OSU but beat 7-2 Cal, and in 2007 USC lost to 3-6 Stanford and 5-4 Oregon but beat 7-2 ASU.

Both options leave room for an all-too-familiar Arizona Football heartbreaker: Wait for the peak year and when it finally arrives someone is just a little bit better. But if one isn’t going to go undefeated, one has to take one’s chances.

I’m big into checkpoints and this year it’s simple: Win the first five Pac-10 games. Nothing less will do. Beat Cal, OSU and Washington at home, and win at WSU and UCLA. Start 5-0 in league play and for the second straight season Arizona plays into November controlling its own destiny for the…I still can’t bring myself to say it…for the Nose Hole.

By that point we’ll know who the real contenders are so we can tell which games are expendable (like Cal last year) and which ones are for all the marbles (the GameDay showdown with Oregon).

So, yeah, there’s a lot of pressure on this team. When Mike Stoops and his national championship ring were brought over from Oklahoma it was to get into a position like this. It took a ton of work on his part and a ton of patience from the administration and fans but in Year 7, here we are.

The final step is taking advantage of situations like this. This may be the 7th season of Mike Stoops’ tenure but it’s his first with heavy expectations. How will Stoops’ troops respond in Year 1?

Nine would be fine.