You can cross that one off the list.

We can remove one goal from the Arizona Men’s Basketball 2010 wish list. This team will not be backing into our 12th Pac-10 championship (and 24th overall conference title). I don’t know what’s less likely, Arizona winning five straight or Cal losing twice, but neither is looking good.

But who wants a cheap championship anyway?

(Oh, that’s right, me. All championships count. Like we would have complained if the football team had gone to the Rose Bowl after a four-way tie for first.)

We had hoped the Cats could match the 6-3 record they posted in the first half of the conference season but right now we’re working on 3-6. We’ve completed four rematches and so far the Cats have one sweep, one split and two swept. That’s a recipe for 9-9.

So now we rewind our mindset back to where it was after the first time we played the Oregon schools, back when there was a real fear this team could end up in last place. The UA focus is no longer on the standings or scoreboard watching. The goal is back to getting better and re-peaking on Mar. 10.

Saturday’s game proved one thing: the loss at Oregon State is no longer the worst one.

OSU has five Pac-10 wins and four of them are against Oregon and Arizona. The Wildcats account for 18% of the Beavers’ total wins.

It’s tough to play contrasting styles so close together. OSU plays zone defense, and Oregon plays no defense.

After watching the second-half dunkfest against Oregon it was painful to watch the UA’s repeated attempts to shoot over the OSU zone or stop its deliberate, cut-heavy offense. When the Beavers have the ball they definitely make the students do a lot more “Boing boing” and “Pass!”

The Wildcats only scored 20 points in the first half. The football team scored 23 in a half against the Beavers this year.

As much as we blame the freshmen for this team’s inconsistency it’s the experienced guys who need to step it up. The UA rookies are asked to defend, rebound and make plays in the lane. It’s up to Nic Wise, Kyle Fogg and Jamelle Horne to do the outside shooting.

During the four-game winning streak Wise/Fogg/Horne combined to shoot 42% from deep. During this three-out-of-four losing stretch they’re only shooting a combined 27%. Fogg has had the worst of it the last two weeks as he’s only hitting 18% of his shots from behind the arc. Who knew the Tucson Fogg could be colder than the San Francisco fog?

It’s not a surprise that during the 12-2 run that temporarily eliminated Oregon State’s ten-point lead both Wise and Fogg hit a three. If those two guys don’t hit shots, shots are not going to get hit for this team.

Horne at least has the excuse that he was busy rebounding against the Beavers. It’s hard to average 7.5 boards over two games when you only get one in the first game.

Now the attention turns to the ASU game on Sunday and, believe me, the Cats certainly have the Devils’ attention. You don’t lose to your rival by 19 at home without being extra motivated for the return visit.

This is going to be ASU’s best and most focused week of practice. I wouldn’t be surprised if Herb Sendek brought out tackling dummies with Kevin Parrom’s picture on them.

The first time we met the Devils they were alone in first place. This time around they’re by themselves in second just a game off the pace. And Arizona is back in the spoiler role.

Speaking of Arizona State and spoilers, during the Arizona/Oregon game they flashed a graphic showing that Tajuan Porter was now tied for the second-most made three-pointers in Pac-10 history. The player he tied? None other than ASU’s Stevin “Hedake” Smith, point-shaver extraordinaire. If you’re ASU aren’t you rooting for guys to push Hedake further down the list?

For the record Salim Stoudamire holds the record and Jason Gardner is fourth. They chose to make baskets instead of bets.

Oh yeah, it’s Rivalry Week again.

Uh oh. Here come the upped hopes.

Forget the pedestrian 12-9 record. Forget the RPI in the 50s. Sunday’s game was about the Pac-10 standings and the young Wildcats challenging themselves with something significant on the line.

On this one day the Cats played in a big game and Sean Miller guided them to a win.

This wasn’t a case of upsetting someone who was looking ahead to someone else. First place vs. second place gets everyone’s attention.

It wasn’t a case of a long-time champion getting complacent. We know about Cal’s football drought (last Rose bowl in 1958-’59) but their basketball void is even worse. The Bears haven’t won even a share of a Pac-10 hoops championship since 1959-’60. Winning this title would be a huge deal for Mike Montgomery and his team.

(It begs the question: Is Cal good at anything? Turns out the answer is rugby and crew.)

Look, we get it. This wasn’t #1 Arizona clinching the Pac-10 against Monty’s top-20 Stanford team in 2003. Or Montgomery beating top-20 Arizona on his way to a 26-1 regular season the following year.

We all know the league is down. If the Pacific-10 were the Pacific Ocean, this year’s version would be the Mariana Trench.

All that mattered on the final day of January, 2010, was that Arizona hosted the top team in the Pac-10 and the Wildcats left McKale Center as the new top team in the Pac-10.

Winning at ASU may have been the turning point but young teams really grow up when they can succeed in close games against quality opponents. The Cal game was as back-and-forth as they come. The contest was tied with five minutes left. The lead changed hands four times after that. It was like overtime in regular time.

The Bears’ final lead came as a result of what would have been the game’s signature play if Arizona had let it slip away. I’m not up-to-date on my cardinal sins but I have to think fouling a 93% free throw shooter behind the arc with a two-point lead and less than a minute to play has to rank pretty high.

But Niq Wise atoned for his error by scoring the game’s final five points and adding to his crunch-time legacy. This particular game-winner was slower in developing than his previous two but Niq’s right-then-left-then-right-again drive got the job done.

The old McKale magic also did its part. After Wise’s and-one, Kevin Parrom was too far off Theo Robertson with just a two point lead but Robertson’s three just missed. After Cal secured the offensive rebound Theo got into the lane but lost the ball out of bounds without attempting a shot. Two more Niq foul shots and the Cats were back in first place.

After going 2-0 in rivalry games (UCLA still counts in my book) Sean Miller is now 1-0 in Really Big Games.

We thought we were going to be able to cruise through pressure-free games until the Pac-10 tournament. Now we have to sweat through nerve-racking road games and get back to anxiety-inducing scoreboard watching.

Isn’t it great?

Cat fans should get their hopes up. We’re in first place! And we have the tie-breaker for the #1 seed!

The reality, however, is that even though Cal has an extra road game remaining the Bears still have the advantage on the back nine. Trips to L.A. and the Oregons are easier than the Cats’ trips to the Washingtons and the Bay. If Cal can survive SoCal (and USC is fading) the Bears could go on a major tear to finish the season.

So what exactly would it take for Arizona to win this thing? Another 6-3 to finish at 12-6 is the minimum to be in the discussion. That would be 4-1 at home and 2-2 on the road, which would be no easy task considering the final four road games are against teams that are a combined 43-7 in their own gym.

The more likely requirement is winning every remaining home game (Oregon, OSU, ASU, UCLA and USC) and then establishing the value of your championship bid by winning one or two road games.

Possible? You have to be worried there are going to be a couple more 33% shooting nights down the stretch. Then there’s the constant threat of foul trouble for one of our top two scorers. And just how many more game-winners does Niq have in him?

All questions to be answered in time. What cannot be questioned is we have a really good basketball coach (again) and we have talented young players who are responding to their coach (again). And it’s happening already halfway through their collective first Pac-10 season.

All to the delight of our championship-loving nerves.

More coverage from the TucsonCitizen.com sports network:

Steve Rivera: Wise to the rescue again in victory over Cal

Anthony Gimino: Can we consider Derrick Williams a top 150 freshman now?

If this was the Pac-5 the Wildcats would be in big trouble.

The stat has been repeated many times. Since the start of Pac-10 play Arizona is now 0-3 in the first game of the weekend and 3-0 in the second game. Can we schedule a quick game before taking on ASU this week? Is there a high school team available?

The rule for Pac-10 basketball fans has always been: Don’t judge the weekend until you’ve played both games. There’s no sense in going crazy about a Thursday loss when there’s still a game on Saturday. This is especially true when you have a team for which any weekend split is a good thing.

With the Oregon State defeat the last-second-shot book is now balanced for the 2010 Cats. Two for the good guys, two for the other guys. Live by the buzzer-beater, die by the buzzer-beater.

While I’m happy with the road split it’s still frustrating that a very valuable sweep was there for the taking. The UA had a double-digit second-half lead in both games but could only hold on to one of them thanks to an offensive drought in Corvallis. We’re used to dreaming of the Final Four. Now we’re going scoreless in the final four (minutes).

That added a bit of pressure for the Oregon game. Win and you’re tied for fourth. Lose and you’re alone in tenth. That’s life in the jumbled Pac-10. As it stands there are three teams each with two conference losses and the other seven teams have exactly three losses apiece. Ten-way tie or bust!

Right when Arizona was in danger of replacing UCLA in the cellar the Ducks reverted to their 2-16 form from last year. We are much obliged for your 33% shooting!

Oregon’s McArthur Court always looks like one of those high school courts that’s not quite regulation size. It was nice to see our guys walk out of that place for the last time with a win.

It was also good to see the red uniforms back. Don’t be a stranger, cardinal kit!

Wise’s behind-the-back split of the double-team drive and no-look pass to Williams was the highlight reel play of the night but it was the first behind-the-back split of the double-team that won the game. The lead had been trimmed to eight with just over two minutes left when Wise kicked it out to Fogg for the dagger three.

I wouldn’t recommend behind-the-backing against good defensive teams but a guy who has that in his bag of tricks needs a flashier name. Niq Wise is back.

Baseball has bad-ball hitters. Jamelle Horne is a bad-ball shooter. The less in rhythm he seems the better the chances of the ball going in. Maybe he should shoot free throws on one foot.

It’s great to watch Kyle Fogg’s confidence soaring. He’s aggressive going to the basket, he’s not afraid to launch it from deep and you can count on him to finish games at the free throw line (12-for-12 is pretty good).

At the other end of the non-freshman esteem spectrum is Brendon Lavender. To say he isn’t looking for his shot is an understatement. I don’t even think he knows it’s missing. “What? Score points? No thanks, I’m good.” I hope Brendon finds the trigger again soon because he’s not going to be out there much longer if he’s a zero threat on the offensive end.

I am a big fan of Derrick Williams’ post-dunk surfer pose. Hang (on the) ten (foot rim), brah!

I also love when DW draws yet another foul on the road and the entire crowd groans. Get used to it, people.

I am not a fan of turnovers. You have to feel pretty lucky to win a game in which you turn it over 18 times. The Cats had gotten the giveaway number down to 11 against UCLA, 10 vs. WSU and 12 against UW, but it was a 16-per-game turnover frenzy on the Oregon Trail.

I am conflicted about Jerryd Bayless. I’m still not sure how I feel about our first one-and-done, but if he keeps showing up at games to support the school where he hung out for a couple semesters I’m willing to give him the chance to grow on me.

I am a huge fan of college rivalries. That’s right, it’s ASU Week. They’ve beaten us five straight times. They’ve won their last four games by a combined 70 points. They’re preparing for their only home sellout of the year. It’s not looking good for the boys from Tucson.

The whole state knows the Devils are going to pack it in with their zone and dare the Cats to beat them from the outside. Fogg (48% for the season on threes), Horne (44%) and Wise (37%) are all going to have to be hot from deep. We then need ASU’s four guys who shoot it at 39%+ to all run cold. Piece of cake, right?

This will be Sean Miller’s first game against the Orangish-Yellow and Almost-Brown. You never get a second chance to make a first impression. How important is it to win your first rivalry game? Mike Stoops did it…and proceeded to lose his next three.

But, hey, ASU is alone in first place as we approach the halfway mark of the conference season. This is a chance to “knock them out of the Rose Bowl,” hardwood style.

That’s the kind of sweep I like best.

The clock winds down. The shot goes up. The buzzer sounds. The ball falls through the net. The crowd goes wild.

It’s the most exciting play in basketball. It’s the shot we all practiced in the driveway as kids.

It just never happens for the Arizona Wildcats.

Nic Wise got off the shot with just a sliver of time left on the clock (maybe. But at worst I believe the replay was inconclusive so the ruling on the field – I mean, court – should stand) setting off the best kind of postgame celebration you can have on the hardwood.

When’s the last time that happened? When was the last time the Cats beat the clock with a game-winning basket?

You can’t count Ivan Radenovic’s shot at Oregon three years ago because there were still six seconds left and Oregon had two more possessions after that.

Kirk Walters’ free throw to beat Washington in ’05-’06 doesn’t count either because there were still 5.1 seconds left and, well, because it was a free throw.

Salim Stoudamire came close three times in 2005 but he always left a little time on the clock.

Stoudamire’s deep three against UCLA came with two-and-a-half seconds left (the Cats were even called for a technical foul for rushing the court too soon).

The shot to beat ASU (the travel-no-call play) came with four-tenths left.

Even after Salim’s shot against Oklahoma State in the Sweet 16 the Cowboys still had a chance for their own buzzer-beater.

For the last pure shot/buzzer/net/wild Arizona win you have to go all the way back to…do you remember?…

Mustafa Shakur’s three-pointer to beat USC in the opening round of the 2004 Pac-10 tournament. Six long seasons ago.

So forget who this week’s shot was against or where they’re from. (Turns out it’s Nashville. Who knew? And, according to their website, Lipscomb is “located within one day’s drive of 75 percent of the nation’s population!” Who knew, part two?)

No, this isn’t a year to nitpick the level of competition or the significance of a win. When a Wildcat makes a shot to beat the buzzer and pull out a win, the crowd should just go wild.

The next chance for wildness is tonight (Wednesday) at 8:30 Arizona time against North Carolina State. If you’re looking for an extra reason to tune in Miles Simon is calling the game for Fox Sports Net. Will he sound like a guy returning to the place where he won the national championship, or like a guy returning the place where he got fired?

I leave you with a group project. Post your memories of true Arizona buzzer-beaters at McKale Center. It may take a while.

Hopefully we don’t have to wait too long for the next one.

If you’re like me you love both Arizona Football and Arizona Basketball. You live for the hardwood just as much as the gridiron. You cherish the ’97 championship and you loathe Santa Clara and Illinois. Wildcat hoops are a big deal.

But if you’re like me you also have a short attention span and are attracted to shiny things. This year UA football has held its sparkle a lot longer than usual and the hoops team has temporarily lost its sheen. You don’t love the BasketCats any less, you just weren’t in as big a hurry to dive into the season.

Well, here we are. Smack dab in the middle of the three-week lull before the Holiday Bowl. There’s no more denying it. It’s time to see what’s up with the basketball team.

Feeling a little out of touch? Don’t worry, we’re here to help.

What did I miss?
Not a whole lot, actually. The Cats are 3-1 at home, 0-2 on the road, and we finished 6th in the Maui Invitational.

How are the freshmen looking?

If you have not yet seen Mr. Derrick Williams play, go do it. Now. Williams is by far the Cats’ best post presence and he’s hit double-figures in seven of the nine games. Derrick scored 25 against Wisconsin and 28 against UNLV, the double-overtime game he almost won by himself.

At 6-7 he’s a lot more Taj Gibson than Kevin Love but he’s aggressive around the rim and he draws fouls (seven free-throw attempts a game). He can also do this.

The other young fella to watch is Solomon Hill. He’s a 6-6 wing who shoots 53% from the floor, 79% from the line, and contributes nine points and five boards a game. His assist numbers are a little light right now but he’s already made some Luke-Walton-esque passes so you could see him flirting with a triple-double at some point.

Is it hard to envision Williams and Hill as key guys on a Pac-10 title contender in two years? Not at all. And that’s the kind of thinking we need this year.

Are the returning players any good?

The best-case scenario for this squad was a repeat of 1999 with Nic Wise as Jason Terry (22 points per game, Pac-10 Player of the Year), and Jamelle Horne as A.J. Bramlett (14 and 9 a game), leading the talented freshmen along.

It just hasn’t happened. Nic’s scoring is up but his shooting percentages are down (except from the line) and he’s struggled to consistently hit his shot.

You want a black-and-white stat? The Cats are 4-0 when Wise shoots at least 50% from the floor and 0-5 when he doesn’t.

How does the Pac-10 look this year?

About as well as the housing market. It you want to feel dizzy take a look at the current Pac-10 standings. WSU is on top with its 8-2 record. Arizona has the 9th best overall record. UCLA is in the basement. Stand on your head and it looks like, oh, 1986-2006.

The problem for the league is nobody has beaten anybody and almost everybody has been beaten by a nobody. The Pac-10’s best wins thus far? You have ASU over a 5-2 LSU team and Cal over 7-2 Pacific. That’s it.

The worst losses? Take your pick. Oregon against Montana and Portland. UCLA against Portland, Fullerton and Long Beach. USC to Loyola Marymount. Stanford to San Diego and Oral Roberts. OSU to (avert your eyes) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Sacramento State. The Pac-10’s RPI might be lower than Brandon Jennings’ test scores.

You may have noticed that Arizona isn’t on that second list so if you’re looking for something positive you can start there. The Cats have five losses. Three are to teams currently ranked (Wisconsin, Vandy and UNLV) and the other two are to 7-3 Oklahoma and 8-2 SDSU. Of course, our best win is against a Louisiana Tech team that has feasted on things called UTPA and UALR so we didn’t make the first list either.

Give it to me straight: NCAA Tournament streak?

Let it go, my friend. Let it go. The Wildcats are 4-5 right now with three remaining out-of-conference games, all at home. Lipscomb should be a win, but NC State and BYU are a combined 15-2. A 5-7 non-league record is very possible and that’s not going to be close to getting it done.

The last two years Arizona went 9-9 and 8-10 in Pac-10 play. What makes you think we’re going to improve on that with a worse roster? This squad, like most young teams, is going to struggle on the road. The first two tests were Oklahoma and San Diego State and both resulted in 17-point losses. Factor in hiccups at home due to inexperience and an overall winning record is a more realistic ceiling than 19 wins.

When the Pac-10 tournament rolls around Arizona will be looking to duplicate USC’s run of a year ago. If it can’t the quarter-century of sustained excellence will come to an end.

And there’s nothing wrong with that.

Giving someone a clean slate usually implies wiping away something like a scandal or prolonged losing. For Sean Miller it means erasing the pressure of a great thing. Lute Olson’s NCAA tournament streak is at 25. Sean Miller’s is at zero.

Don’t get me wrong, Miller is expected to do great things here. Pac-10 championships are expected. Final Fours are expected. Building a team good enough to play on the final day of the tournament is expected. Lots of pressure will be there. Just not right now.

So what are we supposed to do this year?

Same thing we always do.

Cheer on the Cats, and Bear Down.