The 2010 Census Report has been released on Arizona.
Coming as no surprise, the state’s population grew. Really interesting is the Hispanic population really grew. Warning to certain state legislators who are trying to make Hispanic immigration an issue….by 2020 the GOP may be an endangered species in large parts of Arizona.
From the Arizona Republic:
Soaring numbers of Hispanics and overall growth in the West Valley and Phoenix were prime drivers of Arizona’s population growth over the past decade, according to 2010 census data released Thursday.
Arizona had nearly 1.9 million Hispanic residents as of April 1, 2010, an increase of 46 percent. Their share of the state population rose from about a fourth to nearly 30 percent.
The change was most striking among those 17 and younger. There are now more Hispanic children in Arizona than White, non-Hispanic children, suggesting the relative size of the Hispanic population could continue growing.
The hot spots of overall state growth were the West Valley, Phoenix and the far southeast Valley in terms of raw numbers. Political observers have been waiting to see where big gains occurred since the Census Bureau released data in December showing that Arizona, with a 25 percent gain, was the fastest-growing state in the nation after Nevada. The biggest growth spots could play a central role in the creation of a new, ninth congressional seat, to be created before the 2012 elections.
Despite the steep overall gains, there were some disappointments for those who view growth as positive.
Some neighborhoods of the Valley – south Phoenix and the near East Valley – posted small declines, partly a sign of further flight to the suburbs.
Phoenix added more population than any other city in the state, growing by 9.4 percent, to 1.4 million. But that still left it slightly behind Philadelphia, which retained its status as the nation’s fifth-largest city.
The state’s 10-year growth figures were smaller than gains in the 1990s and fell well short of estimates made in the final years of the past decade. That was especially true in most of the largest cities in Maricopa County.
This will likely make city planners rethink projections on how much federal funding for schools, transportation projects and other needs cities can expect to receive based on population, said Tom Rex, an Arizona State University economist who analyzes census data.
“You’re adding that onto the already-dire situation that so many of them are in with the recession-caused reductions in their tax revenues,” he said. “This is just one more piece of bad news for many of the communities.”
Among other highlights from the census:
-West Valley cities added 300,000 residents, a 69 percent increase since 2000. That doesn’t include Phoenix, which is largely in the West Valley but stretches eastward as well. By comparison, the East Valley grew 230,000, or 26 percent. Cities in the northeast Valley grew about 18,000, or 7 percent.
-The city of Maricopa had the fastest-growing rate in the state. Its population exploded from barely 1,000 to 43,000, a more than 4,000 percent jump. Phoenix added nearly 125,000 residents and Gilbert added nearly 99,000.
-Pinal County more than doubled in size, but most counties showed far more modest growth rates. Maricopa County added nearly 745,000 residents, a 24 percent increase, while Pima County grew 16 percent. With 3.8 million residents, Maricopa County is the fourth-largest in the nation.
-The Native American and Alaska Native population climbed 16 percent, to 297,000, but its share of Arizonans fell to 4.6 percent. The number of Native American children 17 and younger also declined.
-Arizona is getting older. In 2000, 26 percent of the state’s population was 17 or younger. The 2010 census found that 25 percent of Arizona’s population fell in that age group.
Taken as a whole, the new numbers suggest demographers overestimated the state’s growth at the height of the housing boom, in part because of tumult in housing data and lags in recognizing a shift in birth and death patterns, experts say. It’s unclear how much the Great Recession and the state’s immigration-enforcement policies may have altered the final figures.
“I’m a little disappointed that the Hispanic growth isn’t bigger than it is,” said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. “(Still) for the first time, Hispanics have contributed more to the state’s growth than Whites. That hadn’t happened in the ’90s or earlier. That’s a significant milestone.”
Even as the number of Whites statewide grew 20 percent, in Phoenix they actually declined slightly over the decade. Seventy-three percent of Arizona residents identified themselves as White in 2010, compared with 76 percent in 2000.
The population for Phoenix turned out to be smaller than what the Census Bureau had estimated every year since 2005. The 2009 estimate was nearly 150,000 people higher than what the 2010 tally found.
Based on growth estimated at the end of the past decade, Phoenix actually came in about 10 percent lower than expected. By comparison, other large cities nationally so far have been within about 2 percentage points.
The census count of Arizona’s population in 2010 was 4 percentage points below previous census estimates. It was the widest such margin in the country.
Rex said that’s largely because of the movements of illegal immigrants and faulty assumptions from the housing boom.
“(Illegal immigrants) come here to work,” Rex said. “If they’ve lost their work, they’ve lost total motivation to be here.
“That, in conjunction with the (2008) employer-sanctions law, made it harder for them to find another job. It seems quite reasonable to expect that a lot of them up and left the state in pretty good numbers.”
Frey suspects the effect of immigration laws may be overstated. It may affect new residents moving in to the state, but such numbers are likely relatively small, he said.
William Schooling, Arizona’s demographer for the past two years, said the state’s own estimates were skewed by overreliance on misleading housing information, a method he is now changing.
The Census Bureau similarly leans heavily on births and deaths, which are often reported too slowly to reflect the type of sudden shift that apparently happened at the end of the decade, said Schooling, who once headed the bureau’s population-estimates division.
“Overall, our growth for the decade is huge, but we know it’s a multipart story,” Schooling said. “It was huge and then tapered off.”
Rex suspects the state population actually shrank on an annual basis for the first time since the 1930s. If so, that would match a pattern in Florida and Nevada, two historically high-growth states where population gains skidded to a halt at the end of the past decade.
Last month, Robert Groves, director of the Census Bureau, could not explain why Arizona proved so challenging, but he promised such surprises would be studied.
The 2010 census confirmed that Arizona remains a bellwether of sorts for national trends, some experts say.
“(Arizona) is a fast-growing state, and it’s a place that’s at the nexus of the future of America,” Frey said.
“You’re gaining new immigrants. You’re getting people who are starting out their lives and finding it’s too expensive to live in California.
“You’re still getting retirees, which is going to be a huge group as the Baby Boomers begin to retire. The issues that are going to be on the front burner of a lot of places of the country are going to be first seen in Arizona.”
US Census press release:
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: THURSDAY, MARCH 10, 2011
U.S. Census Bureau Delivers Arizona’s 2010 Census Population Totals, Including First Look at Race and Hispanic Origin Data for Legislative Redistricting
The U.S. Census Bureau today released more detailed 2010 Census population totals and demographic characteristics to the governor and leadership of the state legislature in Arizona. These data provide the first look at population counts for small areas and race, Hispanic origin, voting age and housing unit data released from the 2010 Census.
The official 2010 Census Redistricting Data Summary File can be used to redraw federal, state and local legislative districts under Public Law 94-171. The census data are used by state officials to realign congressional and state legislative districts in their states, taking into account population shifts since the 2000 Census.
Data for Arizona show that the five most populous incorporated places and their 2010 Census counts are Phoenix, 1,445,632; Tucson, 520,116; Mesa, 439,041; Chandler, 236,123; and Glendale, 226,721. Phoenix grew by 9.4 percent since the 2000 Census. Tucson grew by 6.9 percent, Mesa grew by 10.8 percent, Chandler grew by 33.7 percent, and Glendale grew by 3.6 percent.
The largest county is Maricopa, with a population of 3,817,117. Its population grew by 24.2 percent since 2000. The other counties in the top five include Pima, with a population of 980,263 (increase of 16.2 percent); Pinal, 375,770 (increase of 109.1 percent); Yavapai, 211,033 (increase of 26.0 percent); and Mohave, 200,186 (increase of 29.1 percent).
The redistricting file consists of five detailed tables: the first shows the population by race, including six single race groups and 57 multiple race groups (63 total race categories); the second shows the Hispanic or Latino population as well as the non-Hispanic or Latino population cross-tabulated by the 63 race categories. These tabulations are repeated in the third and fourth tables for the population 18 years and over and are for the resident population of the United States. The fifth table provides counts of housing units and their occupancy status.
These five detailed tables are available to the public online via FTP download at http://www2.census.gov/census_2010/01-Redistricting_File–PL_94-171/ and will be available within 24 hours at http://factfinder2.census.gov. (Access 2003 or Access 2007 shells or SAS scripts are provided to assist with importing and accessing the summary file data from the FTP site. These shells and scripts can be found at http://www.census.gov/rdo/tech_tips. This Web page also contains special instructions for linking data downloaded from FactFinder and/or the FTP site with the Census Bureau’s geographic products.)
By April 1, all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico will receive these data for the following areas: state, congressional districts (for 111th Congress), counties, minor civil divisions, state legislative districts, places, school districts, census tracts, block groups and blocks, and if applicable, American Indian and Alaska Native areas and Hawaiian home lands. In addition, data are available for the 46 states that voluntarily provided voting districts to the Census Bureau’s Redistricting Data Program. Unique geographies for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico are also available.
Race and Hispanic Origin Data
The Census Bureau collects race and Hispanic origin information following the U.S. Office of Management and Budget’s (OMB) standards for collecting and tabulating data on race and ethnicity. In October 1997, the OMB issued the current standards, which identify five race groups: white, black or African-American, American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, and Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander. The Census Bureau also utilized a sixth category – “some other race.” Respondents who reported only one race are shown in these six groups.
Individuals were first presented with the option to self-identify with more than one race in the 2000 Census, and this continued in the 2010 Census. People who identify with more than one race may choose to provide multiple races in response to the race question. The 2010 Census results provide new data on the size and makeup of the nation’s multiracial population.
Respondents who reported more than one of the six race groups are included in the “two or more races” population. There are 57 possible combinations of the six race groups.
The Census Bureau included the “some other race” category for responses that could not be classified in any of the other race categories on the questionnaire. In the 2000 Census, the vast majority of people who reported only as “some other race” were of Hispanic or Latino origin. Data on Hispanics or Latinos, who may be of any race, were obtained from a separate question on ethnicity.
Comment: I’ve been trying to open up the census files…they are .pl (perl) and I don’t have anything on my computer that will open the darned thing.
One would think the government would make this data available in an easy to access format.
Wrong. You have to be some kind of computer genius to navigate through this.