Comments on: McCallum uncertain when a decision will be announced

By: wilburrocks

wilburrocks — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 23:04:55 +0000

fair enough — thanks for all the thoughtful responses

By: PortlandCatfan

PortlandCatfan — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 21:14:45 +0000

wilbur — in your hypothetical, I’ll assume Patty Mills played for Arizona and left for the NBA the same year, along with Jordan and Chase. Patty would have been playing alongside Nic Wise presumably, starting in place of Kyle Fogg maybe (with Horne being the 5th starter at year’s end). Let’s assume his injury situation played out the same way. Having assumed all that, I really don’t know the answer to your question because Mills probably would have been viewed as the 3rd (or even 4th) best player coming out from Arizona, and yet NBA teams drafting for a need may have selected him sooner as you say. But Chase slipped all the way to #44. Maybe Mills would have still gone at #55. The real point initially was what does the Arizona versus Detroit choice look like to a 4-star recruit at the time the commitment decision must be made. Does choosing Arizona guarantee a somewhat higher NBA draft position, and is that the kid’s primary goal. In Ray McCallum’s case, it’s a lot more complex than that, which is what Javier was writing about. How much development (arguable) and exposure (you can win that point) is involved for Ray Jr if he chooses his father versus choosing Arizona and Sean Miller? And how heavily does his father’s success as a coach weigh on Ray Jr’s thinking? I have to agree with Javier at the end of the day that Ray Sr is playing it the best way he can by staying in the mix and letting Ray Jr do his own analysis. Sorry for such a long post, but this has been an interesting give and take from my POV.

By: wilburrocks

wilburrocks — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 18:01:40 +0000

You’re right Portland – we are hardly in violent disagreement. I still say though that a big time program in a big time conference is going to be an asset to a player who has a shot for making the NBA. It maximizes visibility and takes away the lack of competition issues + I believe makes them a better player due to the competition (or should I say mature faster as a player). I’d be interested in knowing if you believe that if Patty Mills played for UA instead of St Mary’s, would he have been drafted higher, same or lower? It is probably obvious to you that I believe he would have gone higher. More importantly, it is great to see these new cats off to a good start. Still can’t believe our reversal of fortune over the past six months.

By: PortlandCatfan

PortlandCatfan — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 01:01:03 +0000

wilbur — I’m beginning to think we don’t have a difference of opinion at all. The link you provided (a great aid to the discussion) shows 14 points of strength and 14 points of weakness. Exactly one of those 28 metrics is about “level of competition” so it’s a factor but not necessarily an important one. It’s simply part of the mix. As I said, NBA general managers (and draft projecting sites) really gather a lot of intelligence. Even with “level of competition” in Patty Mills’s case, part of that “weakness” may be from his earlier competition in Australia rather than American HS basketball factory school and/or AAU experience. Your cited site projected Mills at #39 overall, Portland actually picked him up at #55 overall. Seeing as how Budinger dropped to #44 overall coming from our favorite elite program, who can say the St. Mary’s connection had much to do with it. Again, the Blazers saw enough of Mills from his college exposure to keep him on the roster even though he could not participate in the fall camp. Really good discussion, thanks for engaging.

By: wilburrocks

wilburrocks — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 22:28:00 +0000

good points again though obviously one has to consider that very few players have the talent to be considered to be lottery picks. the fact is that more players get into the nba by being second half of the first round or second round or otherwise than lottery picks. the more phenomenal the talent, the less likely it is to go unnoticed. could mccallum be that talent? sure. more realistically though, odds are he won’t be a lottery pick regardless of where he goes. as for mills, the draft projection sites listed his lack of competition as one of his weaknesses – one link http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Patrick-Mills-1362/stats/

By: PortlandCatfan

PortlandCatfan — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:43:38 +0000

NBA general managers find the talent very well, with the possible exception of the Clippers and the Knicks (according to their fans). Patty Mills was viewed as damaged goods with projected high risk as to his full recovery, plus he had “size issues.” My interpretation was that those factors dictated his draft position, not the program he played for in college. Over the years, I don’t believe much NBA talent has been overlooked or greatly under-rated simply because the player attended a Central Arkansas (Scottie Pippen, 5th overall) or American University (Kermit Washington, 5th overall) … many more examples could be cited. Where NBA GM’s really could not evaluate was on players entering directly from high school, so voila, they removed that problem by fiat.
I don’t absolutely disagree with your point, only in degree — I don’t think the size or prominence of the program is much of a factor in the ultimate draft position of college stars. It’s probably more of a factor for marginal players, so if you think that’s where Ray Jr. will fall, you may have a better argument.

By: Mark Johnson

Mark Johnson — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:05:12 +0000

Sure glad the dad is the coach at Detriot and not UM or MSU or any other Big 10 program. At least AZ has a chance.

By: wilburrocks

wilburrocks — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:33:13 +0000

why? if mills were at a bigger program, i think he would’ve gone much higher. i should be clearer, it is not just about making the NBA, it is about being drafted as high as possible

By: portlandcatfan

portlandcatfan — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 01:35:24 +0000

wilbur — Patty Mills is not a good example as his case works against your point. Portland chose to draft Mills, then chose to keep him on their roster even though he is injured and was not able to participate in training camp and win his spot on the floor. That means they saw enough of his play at St. Mary’s (not an elite program) to invest in him. Your point may still be correct (although I disagree), but it’s just that Patty Mills may not be your best example.

By: wilburrocks

wilburrocks — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 23:15:22 +0000

I concede up front that you know leagues more about basketball than I ever will. That being said, and even in a day when nba scouts look all of the world much less all over the country for talent, there does seem to be a discount for guys not coming through the most visible, most competitive programs. Perhaps it is partly bias, but partly there are real questions including will the guy be that good against a higher caliber talent? The top programs seem most likely to open the most doors. A guy like Steve Nash was outstanding at Santa Clara and only went 15th, but clearly had the talent to go out higher (and shot UA out of the tourney). A guy like Patty Mills more recently went late in the second I recall but has proven to be very good. One could have a different opinion about the risks/upside of playing for a new coach versus his father. Perhaps selfish is too loaded of an emotional word to brand the elder Mccallum though I still say Ray is best off at UCLA, Florida, Oklahoma, UA or another perennial top program if his goal is to get to the NBA.