Pac-10 tournament still very much foggy going into last game
by Javier Morales on Mar. 05, 2010, under Sports
Deciphering Arizona’s potential Pac-10 tournament scenarios while thinking about Kyle Fogg being a UCLA killer in the same mold as Sean Elliott, Chris Mills and Salim Stoudamire? …
Arizona and Washington can still be tied for third in the Pac-10 if the Cats win and Huskies lose on Saturday. The Wildcats, however, have a long, winded tie-breaking procedure to land the No. 3 seed in the Pac-10 tournament. That means UA will likely be in Cal’s side of the bracket in the No. 4 vs. No. 5 game.
THE SCENARIOS:
If Arizona (15-14 overall and 9-8 in the Pac-10) beats USC on Saturday afternoon and …
- Washington (10-7) beats Oregon State (8-9):
- Arizona would be 10-8 and alone in fourth place in the Pac-10. They would be assured of the 1 p.m. game (Tucson time) on Thursday against the No. 5 team in the Pac-10.
- That fifth-place team could be UCLA (8-9) even if the Bruins lose to ASU (11-6) on Saturday, provided Stanford loses as expected to Cal (12-5). The Bruins swept Oregon State during the regular season so if they tie with 8-10 records in this scenario, they get the nod. If the Bruins defeat the Sun Devils, it will likely be Arizona-UCLA again in Los Angeles on Thursday in this scenario.
- What about Stanford? The Cardinal, Bruins and Beavers can all finish 8-10 if Stanford upsets Cal on Saturday and Oregon State and UCLA lose. USC would also be 8-10 by virtue of its loss to Arizona. The Trojans are not eligible for the Pac-10 tournament because of their self-imposed penalties but they still figure in the tie-breaker scenarios. So there is a possibility of Stanford, UCLA, Oregon State and USC finishing tied for fifth at 8-10. In this scenario, Stanford gets the nod because its 4-2 record against the three other teams. UCLA and USC were 3-3 and Oregon State 2-4.
- Washington loses to Oregon State:
- Arizona and Washington tie for third place with 10-8 records. Who is No. 3 and No. 4? It becomes as foggy as UCLA’s defense against Kyle Fogg. Since the teams split in the regular season, the tie-breaker calls for the head-to-head record against the other teams starting at the top. However, both have split with Cal and ASU, so the tie-breaking continues …
- The next team to analyze would be Oregon State which would be in fifth place with a 9-9 record if it beats the Huskies. The Beavers will be alone in fifth if UCLA loses at ASU. The UA was swept by the Beavers while Washington would have split against Oregon State. In this case, Washington will be the No. 3 seed and Arizona the No. 4 seed.
- But the possibility of Arizona being the No. 3 seed exists. In this scenario, UCLA beats ASU and the Bruins and Oregon State tie for fifth place with 9-9 records. Arizona and Washington are 2-2 against UCLA and Oregon State. So the tie-breaking continues …
- Both teams swept Stanford. So the tie-breaking continues …
- USC has swept Washington and if the UA beats the Trojans, it would have split. In this case, Arizona would be the No. 3 seed.
If Arizona loses to USC, the Wildcats will likely be either the No. 4 or No. 5 team at 9-9. Is there a chance the Cats can slip to No. 6 or further? Does not look like it. Consider:
The Cats, USC, Oregon State and UCLA could all be tied with 9-9 records if Arizona loses Saturday and Oregon State and UCLA win. Arizona’s record would be 2-4 against the other three. Oregon State would be 4-2, UCLA 2-4 and USC 4-2. So in this case Oregon State would be the No. 4 seed and Arizona would get the nod for the No. 5 seed by virtue of its sweep of the Bruins.
I’ll leave the odds percentages to the statisticians. Just know that Arizona will more than likely play in the No. 4 vs No. 5 game, although a slight possibility exists of the Cats being the No. 3 team playing the No. 6 team.
PLEASE CHECK OUT WILDABOUTAZCATS.com FOR MORE DETAILS AND VIDEO OF ARIZONA’S COME-FROM-BEHIND WIN AGAINST UCLA
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