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A look at what to expect from the coaches and a predicted outcome of Thursday’s game (at approximately 6:45 p.m., Tucson time) at Anaheim between No. 5-seed Arizona (29-7) and No. 1 seed Duke (32-4) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament:

COACHING

Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski vs. Arizona’s Sean Miller

Sean Miller‘s unsuccessful first opportunity to coach against Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski as a head coach was two seasons ago. His next chance tonight has similar circumstances. Heading into a made-for-TV showdown against the Blue Devils at the Meadowlands on Dec. 20, 2008, Miller’s Xavier team was making a claim to be considered a national power. The Musketeers, who advanced to the Elite Eight the previous year, were trying to match their best start in school history (the 1996-97 team opened 10-0). Their No. 7 ranking matched the highest in the program’s history. Xavier came out of the gate as if it did not hear the gun. The sixth-ranked Blue Devils charged to an 18-1 lead and it was light’s out from there en route to an 82-64 win. “At the first timeout, I tried to remain positive, but I told the kids that at this pace, they could score 190 and I really thought it was a possibility,” Miller told the media afterward. The loss was the second-worst during Miller’s five years as Xavier head coach (ASU beat the Musketeers 77-55 in 2007).

Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski believes Arizona is lucky to have landed Sean Miller as its head coach (US Presswire photo/Gary A. Vasquez)

Only two seasons later, Miller has Arizona on solid ground, it appears, as the Wildcats return to the Sweet 16 for the 14th time after failing to make the NCAA tournament field last year for the first time since 1985. Arizona guard Lamont “MoMo” Jones said this week that the Wildcats’ program is “iconic” similar to the Duke masterpiece Krzyzewski has built and maintained. Miller again is leading a program trying to prove itself on a national stage. Every national media talking head is taking Duke, which is a decisive 9-point favorite in Las Vegas. Will Arizona fail to hear the gun like Xavier did 28 months ago against Duke and Krzyzewski? Will Arizona get a reality check like Xavier enured or will the Wildcats answer the bell and come out nasty like Miller desires?

Comparing the two coaches is unfair to Miller, because he is only 42 and barely in his seventh season as head coach with an overall record of 165-69. His biggest accomplishment is the Elite Eight appearance in 2008. Krzyzewski, 64, is two victories shy of Bobby Knight‘s career-record of 902. He has four national titles at Duke. He will likely win his second gold medal as the Team USA Olympic coach in 2012.

Krzyzewski offers a stamp of approval for Miller, which should carry significance for those who follow the Wildcats.

“I consider (UConn’s Jim) Calhoun, (Maryland’s Gary) Williams, myself, the old guys who got in it for the right reasons and love the game a certain way,” Krzyzewski said Wednesday. “I think Sean is more of an ‘old soul.’ He got in the game for the right reasons. His team is sound. They’re just good.

“I mean as good of a player as (Derrick) Williams is, and I think he’s got to be a first-team, might be the best — first-team All-American, may be as good as anybody. His coaches used him well, and a lot of coaches don’t use their best players as well as Sean has used him. They’re sound defensively, and I think a lot of him, and I’ve developed a good friendship with him, and I think Arizona is lucky to have him.”

Arizona coach Sean Miller hopes his team starts stronger than his 2008-09 Xavier team that trailed Duke 18-1 en route to an 82-64 loss (US Presswire photo/Gary A. Vasquez)

OUTCOME

So many factors point toward Arizona’s NCAA tournament run coming to a close tonight. Allow me to count the ways:

>> Miller is Arizona’s fourth coach in five years, following Lute Olson (his last full season in 2006-07) and interim coaches Kevin O’Neill (2007-08) and Russ Pennell (2008-09). Duke has Krzyzewski, a stalwart who has coached in Durham since 1980.

>> The Blue Devils are a No. 1 seed with the the projected No. 1 draft pick — freshman guard Kyrie Irving — in April’s NBA draft. The Wildcats answer with a potential top five pick in Williams, but they are seeded No. 5.

>> Arizona is a team laden with sophomores and freshman, who score most of the points and produce most of the rebounds and assists, etc. The Wildcats finished 16-15 last year while the young team was teething. Duke is the defending national champion which feature two seniors — guard Nolan Smith and wing Kyle Singler — who are All-American types.

In Arizona’s favor:

>> The likelihood of a home crowd exists in Anaheim, a close distance from Tucson. And let’s face it, fans from San Diego State or UConn will cheer against the Blue Devils because they either hate Duke or think the Wildcats are a more favorable matchup.

>> At least the No. 1 draft pick is a guard and not a dominating center. The Wildcats struggle most against teams with bigs who can score. Duke lacks that kind of player.

>> Finally, Miller is two years wiser after the debacle against Duke two years ago. He knows what to expect from Duke as the head coach after preparing for the Blue Devils as an assistant with Xavier and North Carolina State. The way Xavier played against Duke from the start in 2008, it did not look like he talked about being nasty. Just a hunch.

My projected final score is Duke 75, Arizona 71, which considering all the circumstances of where the programs currently stand, is not disappointing for the overachieving Wildcats. This game will not be an easy game for Duke, as ESPN’s Skip Bayless suggests. Far from it.

Bayless said on the “ESPN: First Take” show Thursday morning that “Duke will cause problems for Derrick Williams. I’ve seen Williams play a lot this season, His game comes and it goes. It will mostly go tonight.”

Comes and goes? Is he talking about a different Williams? Arizona’s Williams has scored in double figures all but once this season and he has 12 double-doubles.

Chances are Bayless will have to retract that statement Friday morning. And it’s likely that Krzyzewski will not compare the Honda Center to “going to the best restaurant”, as he did about the Meadowlands after Duke dismantled Xavier two seasons ago.

Former Arizona guard Reggie Geary suggests that UA coach Sean Miller get in the minds of the refs this week by admitting to the press that Duke will get most of the calls because of Mike Krzyzewski's image

Former Arizona guard Reggie Geary, who knows a thing or two about drawing the attention of referees, offered a suggestion Monday night for UA coach Sean Miller heading into Thursday’s Sweet 16 game with Duke in Anaheim.

Although he never had the chance to play Duke in his career, Geary says he knows the star power veteran coach Mike Krzyzewski has on the referees.

“I think Coach Miller should use the K.O. (Kevin O’Neill) technique; it’s an old NBA technique,” Geary,a former NBA player as well, said as one of the hosts of the “Out of Bounds” show on KCUB (1290-AM).

“It’s the technique K.O. used with Derrick Williams, drawing attention from the media about the fouls he gets. Coach Miller should say this week that, ‘We know Duke will get all the calls and we will try our best.’ He should bring attention to (Krzyzewski’s image with the refs).

“He should consciously get in their brains and maybe we can balance that out a little bit.”

Geary is one of three former members of Arizona’s 1994 Final Four team — Joseph Blair and Corey Williams the others — who did not hold back an opinion about Duke during the “Out of Bounds” show broadcast weekly in Tucson.

“With Coach K sitting on the other bench, when he stands up and gets on the referees, that’s a lot of weight for (the refs) to carry,” Geary continued. “They will be starstruck. Coach Miller needs to stand up too.”

Blair then interjected, “He might have to take the jacket off.”

Blair also said Duke and Krzyzewski may “get some of that Blue Magic” in regards to calls from the refs.

They remember the value of Lute Olson‘s image on the bench when Olson argued with the refs. They believe the victory disparity between Krzyzewski (900-283 in 36 years of coaching) and Miller (165-69 in seven years) is something that can adversely affect the Wildcats when it comes to Krzyzewski getting in the face of the referees.

“If Coach Olson did his thing and the refs didn’t say, ‘Sit down,’ don’t you think Coach K will do the same thing?” Williams said.

One of Geary’s most notorious moves during his collegiate career was forcing the refs to give former Cal coach Todd Bozeman a technical foul in Arizona’s 96-77 victory Feb. 13, 1994.

Bozeman was given a technical foul by referee Charlie Range after he grabbed Range’s arm to protest Geary’s alleged trash talking. Bozeman and Olson also got into a heated exchange near the scorer’s table at Haas Pavilion.

The heated game between the 18th-ranked Golden Bears and No. 16 Wildcats was tied at 61 at the time of Bozeman’s technical. Arizona proceeded to score 20 straight points to pull away.

“I didn’t feel I deserved the technical foul,” Bozeman said afterward. “He slurred our entire bench and got away with it, right in front of the referee.”

“That was the best psyche job of my life,” Geary, denying profanities were used, said after the game. “I know what the boundary is. I never crossed the boundary.”

Former Arizona player Deron Johnson, a Sunnyside alum, called the “Out of Bounds” show and asked his former teammates about Krzyzewski having a personal vendetta against the Arizona program.

Johnson discussed the Olson and Bobby Knight rift and that Krzyzewski is a disciple of Knight. He added that Krzyzewski cut former Arizona player Chris Mills from the United States 1990 Goodwill Games roster while keeping his own — Bobby Hurley and Christian Laettner.

“I remember when Laettner beat out Shaq (Shaquille O’Neal) for the (1992) Dream Team,” Williams said. “That was ridiculous.”

Actually, the late Chuck Daly coached that team but Krzyzewski was one of the assistants along with P.J. Carlesimo and Lenny Wilkens. Laettner was the only collegian on the “Dream Team” roster and he beat O’Neal, at LSU at the time, for the final roster spot.

“Since I was in high school, I hated Duke,” Blair said with a laugh. “Ever since I saw Laettner step on that dude, I wanted to punch him.”

Blair spoke about Laettner’s intentional stomp on the chest of Kentucky freshman Aminu Timberlake in the 1992 NCAA East Regional Final. Laettner, assessed a technical foul and not ejected, later made the legendary winning jump shot in overtime on the length-of-the-court pass.

“Duke earns about 80 percent of the hype they get,” Williams said. “The free national commercial spots they get on ESPN, that’s a little much for me.”

Charlotte Bobcats guard Derrick Brown is the only NBA player Sean Miller has produced in his six seasons as an NBA head coach (Photo by US Presswire, Sam Sharpe)

If the proving point to recruits for college coaches these days is the ability to produce NBA talent — and by all indications that is the requirement now for top-notch high school recruits — then UA’s Sean Miller is favorable compared to Hall of Fame coach Lute Olson at the same point in their careers.

After six seasons as a head coach, Miller has produced one NBA player — Derrick Brown — who was taken in the second round last year, the 40th pick overall by Charlotte. Olson, by comparison, had two players selected from his only Long Beach State team in team in 1973-74 (when he started his Division I head coaching career) and three players from Iowa by his sixth season overall as a head coach.

However, the three Hawkeyes were picked in the fourth round (the NBA draft currently has only two rounds). Not one of them — Dan Frost and Scott Thompson in 1976 and Bruce King in 1977 — ever played in the NBA.

In Olson’s lone season at Long Beach State in 1973-74, Glenn McDonald and Leonard Gray were drafted and subsequently played three seasons in the NBA. Bob Gross played one year under Olson at Long Beach but finished his time there a year after Olson left. Gross then embarked on an eight-year NBA career in 1975. Olson did not scout or recruit Gray, McDonald or Gross out of high school.

Brown played 57 games, averaging 9.4 minutes a game, with the Bobcats during the regular season this year. Xavier won three straight Atlantic 10 Conference Regular Season Championships during Brown’s three-year career and compiled an 82-24 (.774) combined record. He left after his junior season partly because he earned his degree last May, but Brown also suggested to reporters last year that he left early to seize the opportunity after believing his chances for an NBA career were remote when he signed with Miller and Xavier.

He redshirted his freshman season after averaging a pedestrian 15 points a game as a high school senior.

In the end, Olson became known for his ability to churn out NBA draft picks at a high-profile program that he built at Arizona. He produced 53 NBA draft picks, including 32 at Arizona, 13 of which were selected in the first round.

Kentucky coach John Calipari, whose production of NBA players will greatly increase in Lexington, did not produce one NBA draft selection in his first six seasons as a head coach, at UMass from 1988-94.

Similar to Miller, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski started at another institution (Army) for his first five years before coaching his sixth year as a head coach at Duke in 1980-81. Krzyzewski did not produce an NBA draft pick at Army. In his first season in Durham, Coach K inherited 1981 NBA draft picks Gene Banks and Kenny Dennard. Banks played five seasons in the NBA and Dennard two.

Krzyzewski, of course, did not scout or recruit Banks or Dennard and he coached them for only one season.

The point is, if the argument is made that Miller does not have a background of producing NBA players, it’s because he simply needs more time. Mouth of Wilson (Va.) Oak Hill Academy guard Doron Lamb, a Kentucky-bound recruit who officially visited UA, mentioned to The Arizona Daily Star’s Bruce Pascoe last week that Arizona “needs more players.” That was his reason for not coming to Arizona.

Miller can develop players. Brown proves that and Williams is a testament to that fact this season.