Arizona’s 20-17 win at Arizona State guaranteed the Wildcats a spot somewhere in the Pac-10′s bowl affiliations.

Exactly where is still a big mystery.

It won’t be the Rose, but Arizona could land in any of the five remaining bowls. This much is almost perfectly clear: A loss at USC on Saturday means the Wildcats will be going to the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego on Dec. 23.

The Pac-10 will have only six qualified teams for its bowls. UCLA finished 6-6 and can be placed as an at-large team in another bowl if there are no more teams with winning records available.

Just a refresher course on Pac-10 bowls:

After the Rose Bowl takes the champion, the Holiday has to take the second-place team. The bowl gets its choice of tied teams.

And so it is down the line: The Sun Bowl gets the third-place team, the Emerald gets the fourth-place team, the Las Vegas Bowl gets No. 5 and the Poinsettia gets the sixth-place team.

The Emerald and Las Vegas bowls can switch teams if both sides agree.

It looks to me, given bowl preferences among potentially tied teams, that it’s not likely for Arizona to land in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco, or in Las Vegas for the second consecutive year.

But the Holiday and Sun are in play — if the Cats win Saturday in the Los Angeles Coliseum, where the Trojans have lost only twice in the past eight seasons (both to Stanford).

Let’s try to break it down:

Pac-10 games remaining
Oregon State at Oregon (Thursday)
Arizona at USC (Saturday)
Cal at Washington (Saturday)

If Oregon and Arizona win
Arizona will finish 6-3 and tie for second with Oregon State, Stanford and possibly Cal. The Holiday Bowl would have its pick among the tied teams, with the Wildcats looking good because it will be coming off a win over USC and Tucson fans figure to travel well to San Diego.

Stanford, on the other hand, has a TV draw with running back Toby Gerhart and charismatic coach Jim Harbaugh. If Cal wins, it would have a better overall record, a higher ranking than Arizona and a larger TV market, but a more apathetic fan base (ditto on the last part for Stanford).

Hard to say what the Holiday Bowl would do.

(The Holiday opponent would be Nebraska if the Cornhuskers lose to Texas in the Big 12 title game. Arizona-Nebraska? A rematch of the 1998 Holiday? Sounds good to me.)

If Oregon State and Arizona win
The best Arizona can do is tie for third, and the Wildcats would look geographically attractive to the fine folks who run the El Paso bowl. And consider this: The most likely team on the other side is Oklahoma, and a Stoops vs. Stoops storyline would be postseason gold.

If Arizona loses and Cal wins
Arizona finishes sixth and will be locked into the Poinsettia Bowl against a Mountain West Conference opponent, likely Utah.

If Arizona loses and Cal loses
The Wildcats and Bears would tie for fifth, but it’s hard to see Cal slipping past the home-area Emerald Bowl, leaving Arizona in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Anthony Gimino can be reached at anthonygimino (at) gmail.com

TEMPE — A couple of warm-ups, and Alex Zendejas was good to go.

Arizona had the ball, had made the miracle play, had the chance to beat rival Arizona State. On the sideline, snapper Jason Bertoni sent a couple of balls back to holder Keenyn Crier and kicker Alex Zendejas went through his steps.

Alex Zendejas kicks the game-winning 32-yard field goal against ASU/photo by Rob Schumacher, The Arizona Republic

Good to go.

Bertoni and Crier and Zendejas slapped hands, bumped helmets … and waited. Arizona was tied with ASU, 17-17, in the final minute and would kill the clock with five seconds left on fourth down.

Here he was. Alex Zendejas in Sun Devil Stadium, and if he’s heard the stories once about uncle Max Zendejas, he’s heard them 100 times. How Max beat ASU in this stadium in 1985 with a 57-yarder and then a 32-yarder with 1:43 to go. How Max beat ASU in this stadium with a 45-yarder as time expired in 1983.

And now, Alex.

Alex, who had missed from 24 yards in the fourth quarter a week earlier in a loss to Oregon. Alex, who has kicked several attempts low in his first season as the starter. Alex, who had a field goal try hit a linemen in the back of his helmet early in the season.

“I just went out there with confidence,” he said. “That’s what you have to have, being a kicker. And I wanted to prove myself.

“I had a good week of practice. I wanted to bounce back from last week, definitely.”

Then it was time. Good snap, good hold, good kick.

Sprinkling more Zendejas magic on the Sun Devil Stadium turf, Alex delivered a 20-17 victory on Saturday night, sending a 32-yard field goal thorugh the rain drops, giving the Wildcats their seventh win of the season, keeping alive the possibility of a tie for second in the Pac-10.

“I tell you what,” Max said in a phone interview with TucsonCitizen.com sports network partner Wildaboutazcats.com a few minutes after the game. “I was more nervous than when I used to kick. I was confident he was going to make it. When he kicked it, I saw him lift his hands like I used to do.

“As soon as hit it, he knew it was going in. He hit it a little to the right, but I knew it was going in. That was one hell of a game.”

With all that pressure at the end, the family legacy to live up to, Alex said he wasn’t even nervous.

“Happy,” he said. “Happy to have the opportunity to make a big kick.”

Why would he be nervous? He’s only been preparing for this moment his entire life.

“It’s funny. I have,” he said.

“Especially coming here. It was a weird feeling I had today coming in here. I don’t want to sound cocky or whatever, but I knew something was going to come down to me. I knew the way I played today would effect the outcome.”

After the kick, as the Wildcats ran onto the field in celebration, center Colin Baxter and coach Mike Stoops twirled around in a big hug, and Stoops embraced special teams coach Jeff Hammerschmidt, who knows a few things about strange special teams play at Sun Devil Stadium.

ASU's Kyle Williams reacts after muffing a punt catch that was recovered by Arizona, setting up the winning field goal/photo by Rob Schumacher, The Arizona Republic

He was on Arizona’s 1987 team, when ASU punter Mike Schuh dropped a snap that Arizona recovered, setting up a game-tying field goal that felt like a win.

Now, Kyle Williams — who had made a super, leaping catch in the back of the end zone to tie the game at 17 with 2:02 left — joins the club of infamy.

ASU forced the Wildcats to punt from their 38 with 1:10 left and then the bounces started going Arizona’s way. Hammerschmidt, in a joking mood after the game, said he called for the “duck hook left” punt from Crier. Hey, good call. Williams moved up to his right to field the punt, and called for a fair catch.

Arizona gunner Mike Turner, who had beaten two blockers at the line of scrimmage by going out wide around them, was there waiting.

“I thought he was going to catch it and I was getting ready to bang him,” Turner said. “His hands weren’t ready for the tuck and his eyes got big. The ball came down and he was looking up still. Somehow, I was in great position.”

Turner recovered at the ASU 22 … and the Wildcats, who have felt as if more bounces have gone against them than for them, were in great position.

“I guess we were due one,” defensive coordinator Mark Stoops said, walking off the field.

Arizona has played six down-to-the-wire games, winning three and losing three. What more can you expect? As head coach Mike Stoops has said all season, things have a way of evening out.

If that’s true, maybe someday a Zendejas actually will miss a kick late in a game against ASU.

Then again, maybe not.

Related link from TucsonCitizen.com:
UA-ASU game blog: Stoops: ‘A lot of difference three points will make in your life.’

Arizona coach Mike Stoops say down for his postgame press conference and let out a sigh of relief.

“Oh, man,” he said. “A lot of difference three points will make in your life.”

Three points gives UA life. It gives the Wildcats seven wins, a guaranteed bowl spot, with a game at USC still to play.

Those three points, coming off a last-play 32-yard field goal from Alex Zendejas, gave Arizona a 20-17 victory, a couple of rivalry trophies and whole new chapter in Arizona-Arizona State.

The Wildcats, giving up two fourth-quarter touchdowns had squandered a 14-0 halftime lead in frustrating fashion, which was reminiscent of last week’s painful double-overtime loss to Oregon.

But the football gods gave Arizona a bounce — Kyle Williams’ muffed punt catch that took a hop into the hands of Mike Turner. Arizona took over at the ASU 22 with 1:03 left and set up the Zendejas field goal.

“We have been through so many games like this that have gone the other way that I felt like it was a little bit of redemption for us to get a break down the stretch and win one without playing our best,” said offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes. “Our kids hung there, but, boy, it was a tough day.”

But three points made all the difference in the Wildcats’ life.

The rest of the game blog … (check back later for more postgame coverage):

* * *

Going down to field. Be back after game.

* * *

Arizona’s offense shows signs of life … but, as it has most of the season, has a hard time punching into the end zone once it gets close. UA takes a 30-yard field goal from Alex Zendejas with 7:50 left for a 17-10 lead. Gulp.

* * *

Uh… we’ve got a football game. Could ASU QB Danny Sullivan be the hero of this game? He connects on a 44-yard touchdown pass to Kyle Williams — with UA’s Cam Nelson unsuccessfully jumping in front of the pass — and now it’s 14-10 Arizona with 11:54 to go.

UA get a break when Williams is called for a personal foul after taking off his helmet in the end zone. That 15-yard penalty prevents ASU from trying for two to get within a field goal. Thomas Weber kicks a 35-yard extra point to get ASU within four.

It’s time for Arizona’s offense to do its part.

* * *

Arizona’s offense has stalled this thing into a close game. Shades of 1992?

* * *

Bad news is that Arizona’s lead was trimmed from 14-0 to 14-3. Good news is that the third quarter is in the books … and ASU is still down by two scores.

* * *

Big stop for Arizona. ASU misfires on a pass on third-and-4 from the UA 46. Trevor Hankins’ punt then goes into the end zone. Arizona needs a drive … and Matt Scott is in at QB.

* * *

Fourth-and-3 from the UA 9, down 14-0. I think I would go for that. But ASU coach Dennis Erickson has Thomas Weber kick a 26-yard field goal to cut the deficit to 14-3.

Good news for Arizona is that its bad field position all half only resulted in three points for ASU. Maybe now UA can reverse field position after the kickoff. ASU’s scoring drive covered only 7 yards after a 53-yard punt return by Kyle Williams.

In any case, this won’t be Arizona’s first shutout of ASU since 1974, when Jim Young’s team won 10-0 in Tucson.

* * *

Like in the first half, Arizona is losing the field position battle early in the second half. ASU punter Trevor Hankins might be the team MVP right now. UA is backed up to its 7 as it starts a drive with 8:59 to go in the third quarter.

(ASU has 100 yards on 34 plays … and 44 of those yards came on a reception on its first play.)

* * *

Arizona State, the second-most penalized team in the country, has six penalties less than a minute into the second half. The Sun Devils average just over nine per game.

* * *

ASU had three first downs and 79 yards in the first half. Arizona had eight first downs and 166 yards.

ASU was 0-for-7 on third down. Arizona was 1-for-7.

* * *

Arizona could have put ASU in a headlock late in the half, but couldn’t pad the lead after taking over at its 49 with 2:07 left. The Wildcats went for it on fourth-and-4 from the ASU 34 with 18 seconds left, but a deep pass goes incomplete. UA leads 14-0.

It’s been a tussle, but two big plays — a 67-yard run from Keola Antolin and a blocked punt for a TD — are the difference. UA’s defensive line is dominating; it’s hard to see that changing in the second half. If ASU can’t come up with some big plays of its own, there chances of a comeback aren’t good.

* * *

Special teams ace Orlando Vargas just made a play he’ll always remember. He comes from the left side to block a punt from Trevor Hankins. As the ball bounces to the right sideline, he scoops it up all alone and returns it 23 yards for a touchdown.

Cue up the highlight tapes. Vargas has secured a spot in UA lore.

Arizona leads 14-0 with 3:50 to go before half.

It hasn’t always been pretty to this point, but the Cats will be thrilled if they can make this two-touchdown lead hold up heading into the break.

* * *

Treading water. Matt Scott plays most of the last series, which ends at the ASU 47. Keenyn Crier then booms a punt into the end zone. There is 7:21 to go in the first half. Arizona doesn’t need to mess around with Scott at quarterback.

Meanwhile, senior Danny Sullivan is coming in at QB for ASU, replacing Samson Szakacsy, who doesn’t look ready for this stage. This is a QB change that makes sense.

* * *

Matt Scott in at quarterback as a running change-up. I’m generally not in favor of this, but he does run for 17 yards on his second play.

* * *

Always a kicking adventure with Alex Zendejas. Arizona has a red-zone failure when Zendejas has a 30-yard field goal attempt tipped at the line of scrimmage by a leaping James Brooks, and the ball tumbles into the crossbar, where — unlike Oregon’s kick last week — it bounces back. No good. Still 7-0 … but at least Arizona’s defense holds ASU to a three-and-out after the miss.

* * *

End of first quarter. UA leads 7-0. A 38-yard punt return by Bug Wright, during which he was insistent on cutting to the left sideline to get behind the wall of blockers, sets up the Wildcats to extend their lead. They are at the ASU 14, first-and-10, as the second quarter begins.

Keola Antolin’s touchdown run changed the whole mood of this game.

Nick Foles in the first quarter: 10 of 11 passing for 62 yards. (The one incompletion was a dropped pass.)

* * *

UA defensive lineman Donald Horton comes up with his second sack of the game. Both sacks have come with the UA only rushing its front four, which is a good sign. Let’s face it: ASU’s offensive line isn’t very good.

* * *

Keola Antolin’s injured shoulder can’t hurt if he doesn’t get tackled. On his second play of the game — and first carry — he takes a handoff up the middle and breaks through to find daylight. He then outraces the Sun Devils into the end zone for a 67-yard touchdown and a 7-0 lead with 3:54 to go in the first quarter.

Antolin attacks the line of scrimmage better than any other UA back, and that’s why his presence — even if it is limited in this game — is so important.

* * *

Bad trend: UA’s drives have started at its 17, 20 and, now, its 16-yard line.

* * *

Is it too early to abandon the running game? Arizona goes three-and-out on its second series, and Greg Nwoko up the middle just likely won’t be a good play today. UA gets another break, though, when it recovers a Nick Foles fumble after a sack. Can’t complain about the way the ball is bouncing so far.

* * *

A break for Arizona. ASU kicker Thomas Weber, who won the Lou Groza Award as the nation’s top kicker in 2007, just hasn’t been the same this season since an early season groin injury. He misses a 36-yard attempt wide left (after a 5-yard false start penalty) with 9:29 to go in the first quarter. The game remains scoreless.

* * *

Interesting calls on two third-and-1 situations on UA’s first drive. UA goes in a four-receiver set in the first situation and completes a 4-yard slant to Bug Wright. In the second case, UA needed about a half yard and went with a “heavy” personnel grouping. Arizona threw out of that set, too, but Terrell Turner dropped the pass from Nick Foles.

Does UA not trust its running game?

Greg Nwoko got the start at running back.

* * *

Running back Keola Antolin is in uniform and went through pregame drills. Running back Nic Grigsby, as expected, is not dressed out, although he did lead the team onto the field before the game.

* * *

TEMPE — OK, we’re here at Sun Devil Stadium for the Arizona-Arizona State rivalry — I guess you could call it the Territorial Cup, which is better than “Duel in the Desert, but does the game really need a name? — and there is modest buzz for a matchup that is expected to draw about 55,000.

Kudos to ABC/ESPN announcer Bob Davie, a former UA assistant, who is here to see his son, Clay, who is a senior long snapper for the Devils. Stopped at the media check-in table, he realized he forget his wallet in the car and had no ID, required for admission. The security personnel didn’t know who he was and wasn’t going to let him in until somebody from ABC came to vouch for him.

I offered to do so, but that didn’t carry much weight.

Anyway, Davie didn’t throw a fit or demand, “Do you know who I am?” He was polite and waited patiently for somebody who could clear him into the Sun Devil Stadium. Good for him.

As for the game …

Three things to watch:

1. Arizona cornerback Trevin Wade. I’m sensing an interception return for a touchdown. ASU sophomore quarterback Samson Szakacsy, who wasn’t available until recently because of an elbow injury, will be making his second career start. Wade is aggressive. Szakacsy’s arm strength is suspect. You do that math.

2. Arizona’s running game. ASU’s defense is stout enough to give Arizona’s problems up front. How much will RB Keola Antolin play, if at all? He’s doubtful. Can Greg Nwoko do enough to make the Sun Devils respect the run? Will Nick Foles have to throw 50 times … and if he does, is that a bad thing?

3. The first quarter. I don’t expect an Arizona hangover from last week’s tough loss to Oregon; this team has bounced back before and has every reason to do so again. But if it’s close and stays close, ASU will grow in confidence. The Sun Devils’ offense isn’t built to mount a comeback. Arizona needs to get up early, not make mistakes and get the heck out of here with a win. Prediction: Arizona 24, ASU 17.

Here is what scares me about Arizona State: Dexter Davis, Lawrence Guy, James Brooks, Saia Falahola, Vontaze Burfict, Mike Nixon and Travis Goethel.

The first four are defensive linemen. The next three are linebackers. The totality is a defensive front seven that is good enough to beat Arizona.

ASU true freshman Vontaze Burfict has a penchant for big hits and costly penalities/photo by Michael Chow, The Arizona Republic

There. I said it.

“Arizona State’s front seven is as good as any in the Pac-10, if not the country,” Washington State coach Paul Wulff said earlier this season.

A bit of hyperbole from a coach who hasn’t won a conference game this season? Perhaps. But he’s in the right ballpark.

ASU’s defense has deserved a better fate than the team’s 4-7 record. The Sun Devils allow 3.3 yards per rush — the stingiest mark in the conference.

Arizona will be without starting running back Nic Grigsby. UA could very well be without running back Keola Antolin.

Hard to see the Wildcats busting big plays from Greg Nwoko and Nick Booth — two good backs, but neither has the wiggle or the speed as UA’s top two runners.

If UA can’t run, the Sun Devils can drop eight players into coverage against Arizona’s spread offense. It could be like the Cal game all over again. You remember Cal. A 24-16 loss in which Arizona ran for all of 72 yards.

“They’re pretty good up front,” Arizona coach Mike Stoops said of ASU.

“They make it very difficult to run. They’re very fast and physical up front, and their linebackers are very stout, too, with Vontaze in there. They present some big challenges. They’re big. They’re hard to move around and get running space. They do a good job clogging up the run and we’re going to have to find ways to move it.”

Yes, ASU allowed 268 rushing yards to Oregon, but Arizona is not Oregon.

Yes, ASU allowed 237 rushing yards to Stanford, but Arizona is also not Stanford in the running game.

If Saturday’s game in Tempe turns into a defensive grind, which is what ASU wants, the advantage tilts to the home team, which will gain confidence and has nothing left to lose.

Arizona has everything to lose.

The season is OK as it is. The Wildcats are 6-4. According to the point spreads, they should be 6-4. According to the preseason projections, 6-4 is right on target, perhaps even a bit closer to the bulls-eye.

Losing at ASU would turn a once- and still-promising season into a disaster.

It would potentially leave UA out of the bowl picture. With a game at USC remaining, it would shove the Wildcats closer to a season-ending four-game losing streak.

Ugh.

No doubt, Arizona has a better overall team than ASU. Strange things happen in this rivalry game, but being concerned about Arizona State isn’t about strange things having to happen.

It’s about ASU being big and tough up front on defense. It’s about ASU’s defense making a play — or two or three — that turns the game toward the Sun Devils.

It will have to be their defense. Their offense can’t do it. Not much sizzle there. Sophomore Samson Szakacsy will make his second career start at quarterback.

He adds a different dimension because of his running ability, but Arizona won’t be awed by his feet after seeing Oregon’s Jeremiah Masoli last week. Szakacsy threw an interception for a touchdown last week at UCLA. One of his three fumbles was returned for a touchdown.

Arizona’s defense might be able to make a few plays, too.

But if Arizona State’s defensive front seven asserts itself, it could be a long day for the Wildcats no matter what else happens.

You can’t trade players in college football, but that’s kind of what happened for this week’s Arizona-Arizona State game. At least from the ASU side.

You know at least part of the story by now.

Nick Foles has looked good in cardinal and navy/photo courtesy Rick Faust, WildcatSportsReport.com

Nick Foles committed to Dick Koetter during his senior year at Westlake High School in Austin, Texas. It was the fall of 2006. ASU fired Koetter after the 2006 season — less than a year after extending his contract — and in came Dennis Erickson.

Foles didn’t do anything drastic at first.

“I was a senior in high school, and I wanted to focus on my team in high school,” he said.

“I stayed with it for a while just because we were in the playoffs and I wanted to focus on that. I didn’t want to worry about the college part of it.”

The story goes that Erickson told the Foles family that he would be bringing in two quarterbacks — Foles and Chase Stangel (who transferred to NAU last summer). Then, near signing day, Erickson received a commitment from a third quarterback.

That would be Samson Szakacsy.

Hence the trade.

Foles’ journey has taken him from being committed to Arizona State to signing with Michigan State to transferring to Arizona to becoming the starting quarterback in the fourth game of the season to developing into one of the bright young passers in the Pac-10.

Szakacsy, who was unavailable early in the season because of an elbow injury, made his first career start for Arizona State last week. He is the likely starter this week, but Erickson wasn’t tipping his hand Tuesday.

Between Foles and Szakacsy, I’m pretty sure I know who I would want right now.

And for the next two seasons.

Foles kind of downplays the “ASU brought in another quarterback to the recruiting class” angle of his de-commit. He says when he discussed the decision with his parents after his high school season that ASU “just felt like it was not the best place for me.”

“It was nothing against him,” Foles added, talking about Erickson.

Erickson said Tuesday: “We tried to pursue him. He had a scholarship offer from us. We ended up with three committed quarterbacks in that class and he decided he didn’t want to come here.”

The Pac-10 is so convoluted, so close, that it’s not a stretch to say that just a slight change in quarterback play can make a huge difference in the record.

ASU’s defense is excellent but its quarterback play has been substandard all season. Its passing efficiency rating is 112.2, ahead of only woeful Washington State in the Pac-10. ASU has thrown 12 interceptions and has a completion percentage of 54.0, also the second-worst marks in the league.

Foles is third in the Pac-10 in passing efficiency (a rating of 141.21) and has thrown for an average of 279 yards in seven starts, all against conference competition.

“Awfully, awfully good,” Erickson said about Foles on Monday. “He gets rid of the football as well as, and as quick as, anyone that I’ve seen. Very accurate.

“What they do offensively fits in perfectly. He’s had a heck of a year, obviously. When they made that change, it was a big change for them as far as moving the ball and all that. He’s a good player.”

If ASU had Foles instead of senior Danny Sullivan and true freshman Brock Osweiler and Szakacsy, might the Devils have won down-to-the-wire games at Georgia and against Cal and USC?

Without Foles, would Arizona instead have lost close games against Oregon State and Stanford?

Would the team that is 4-7 entering this week’s game be 7-4 instead?

Would the team that is 6-4 be 4-6?

That’s a lot of hypotheticals, but it all revolves around the axiom that it’s almost impossible to be a great team without a great quarterback.

Arizona has one that is at least pretty good. ASU, not so much.

“The thing about Nick is he is one of the most competitive people I have ever been around,” said Arizona offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes. “And I think that is what makes him good.”

Bring competitive means being in the football offices at 7 a.m. most mornings, beating some of the coaches in, to look at extra game tape.

“There is a thing my mom cut out when I was younger. It was something like, ‘Champions are made when no one is watching, not when people are watching,’” Foles said.

“Because it’s easy to go out there when people are there to see you work out and doing stuff. It’s when people don’t know you’re doing something that you really get good. That is something that I have always taken to heart.”

He’s a keeper. Arizona won’t be trading him back.

Related link from TucsonCitizen.com

Scott Terrell: Do the Duel: All Territorial Cup all the time

Arizona starting running back Nic Grigsby, who has been battling a shoulder injury for most of the Pac-10 season, is out for this week’s game at Arizona State, coach Mike Stoops said during his weekly Monday news conference.

What’s more, backup running back Keola Antolin, who offers some of the big-play potential that Grigsby has, is questionable because of a shoulder injury that forced him out early in the second quarter of last Saturday’s game against Oregon. Antolin, however, was asked Monday about that, and he said, “I didn’t know that until right now.”

Antolin still has to be further examined before a decision is made.

Arizona likely will be down to third-stringer Greg Nwoko and fourth-stringer Nick Booth.

“It has hurt us,” offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes said, talking about dealing with chronic injuries to Grigsby and Antolin through the Pac-10 schedule. “We’ve not had as many big plays as we’re used to having around here.”

Also, slot receiver David Douglas is out for this week because of a thigh injury, Stoops said.

Five teams from the Pac-10 already have seven victories and are qualified for a bowl. Arizona has six victories, which makes the Wildcats bowl-possible … but, remember, all the teams with winning records get placed ahead of those with 6-6 records.

UCLA also has six victories with one game to play — at USC this Saturday.

Three Pac-10 teams have been eliminated from the postseason.

Oregon, Oregon State, Cal, Stanford and USC are in. If Arizona wins at Arizona State or USC — and UCLA loses to the Trojans — the Wildcats are a sure thing to grab one of the league’s six contracted bowl bids.

But …

If UCLA gets to seven wins, and Arizona loses twice more to finish with six, the Wildcats might not be bowling at all. They would be shut out of the Pac-10 bowls and would have to hope to find an open spot somewhere else. A 6-6 team can only go to a bowl if all the other winning teams across the country have been exhausted and filled 68 postseason slots.

Even if there was an opening, would a 6-6 Arizona team on a four-game losing streak be especially attractive?

Basically, it’s like this: Beat Arizona State, and Arizona can at least count on the Poinsettia Bowl.

Lose twice more, and this has turned into one miserable season.

Here are other bowl destinations and how UA could land there:

Holiday Bowl
* Arizona beats Arizona State and USC to finish at 6-3 in the league.
* Oregon beats Oregon State, giving the Beavers three losses and creating at least a three-team tie for second.

The Holiday would be free to pick among any of the tied times, which would include Stanford (already finished in Pac-10 at 6-3) and possibly Cal, which is 5-3 and finishes at Washington on Dec. 5.

Arizona would be attractive among that group because the Wildcats would have won their final two games, would be coming off a win over USC … and you know the ‘Zonies would travel to San Diego.

Sun Bowl
* Arizona beats Arizona State and USC to finish at 6-3 in the league.

If UA finishes second but gets passed over by the Holiday Bowl, the Sun Bowl would love to grab the Wildcats.

If Oregon State beats Oregon, the Wildcats would finish in a tie for third, and the El Paso bowl likely would prefer Arizona over any other third-place team because of its geography and the length of time — 17 years — since UA has played in that bowl.

Emerald Bowl/Las Vegas Bowl
These teams have the fourth and fifth selection in the Pac-10, and can swap out picks to create the best matchup. If UA wins out, it would finish no worse than fifth in the conference pecking order.

Poinsettia Bowl
* Arizona splits its final two games to finish 7-5 overall and 5-4 in the Pac-10. The Wildcats would finish no worse than sixth in the league, keeping ahead of UCLA no matter what the Bruins do.

Do you love this Arizona football team or hate it?

“We were one play short,” coach Mike Stoops said late Friday night, quietly, in a interview room beneath the stands at Arizona Stadium. “It seems to be our story for the season.”

Sadly, he’s right.

Nobody makes a movie out of being close. Nobody produces special edition magazines — Rose Bowl at last! — when you fail to make a play at the end.

The ESPN coverage will fade away. GameDay, it was nice knowing you. Thanks for coming.

It has been the season of “What if,” a season of an interception off a shoe, an illegal double-pass and a 44-41 overtime loss to 11th-ranked Oregon when one play — one play somewhere in the fourth quarter on offense or defense or special teams — could have preserved a 24-14 lead with 13:57 left.

For about 29 minutes of game time, the UA defense stymied Oregon — the trickiest, sassiest, most doggone confounding offense in the Pac-10 — and kept the Ducks off the scoreboard. Arizona turned a 14-0 deficit into a 24-14 lead early in the fourth quarter.

But then it all slipped away.

Do you love the Wildcats for battling to the end and nearly upsetting the 11th-ranked team in the country?

Or do you hate them for blowing it?

For dangling Rose Bowl dreams right where you could touch them.

For being so dang close Saturday night that fans — idiotic, misguided fans — poured out of the stands and crowded the sidelines within the final minute of regulation, only to see the Ducks tie the game with a touchdown with six seconds left.

“Our guys couldn’t have fought any harder,” said defensive coordinator Mark Stoops.

“We were a play away from beating a very good football team. As bad as I feel, and as bad as our defense feels, you have to look at the character of our players and how far we’ve come. You have to take salvation in the big picture, because otherwise it will kill us right now.”

The big picture is that this was a team picked to finish eighth by the Pac-10 media, with other predictions being anywhere from fifth to eighth. Arizona, without its best player (tight end Rob Gronkowski) all season and without its top two running backs (Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin) for the majority of the Pac-10 season, can still finish as high as a tie for second, with a possible berth to the Holiday Bowl.

That’s good.

But are you ready for this? If Arizona loses at Arizona State and USC, the Cats are stuck at 6-6 and could end up nowhere. The Pac-10 already has five qualified teams for its six bowl slots … and then UCLA and Arizona each are sitting on six victories.

How we all end up feeling about this team is still to be decided.

Arizona can’t let the loss to Oregon define the season, even though the game might do just it.

“I can say we’re not going to let it, but at the end of the day, we all know it is,” said senior free safety Cam Nelson. “It is something that is going to affect us for the rest of our lives, knowing we let this opportunity slip out of our hands. I could sit here and say, ‘No, we’re not going to worry about it and put it behind us,’ but I’m not (going to say that).”

As I’ve said before, Arizona is an average to above average team. That it flirted with school history is to its credit. The Pac-10 is filled with teams just like UA. Make a play, and win. Don’t make a play, and lose. Can’t win ‘em all.

Arizona has played five coin-flip games — Oregon State, Washington, Stanford, Cal and Oregon — and won twice.

Maybe the next time, the opponent’s 43-yard field goal will hit the crossbar and bounce backward and not forward. Maybe the next time, Arizona will fumble into the end zone and recover it. Maybe next time, an opponent’s pass into the end zone will be an inch the other way and get knocked down.

Credit to Oregon. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was superb when he absolutely had to be, running and passing, and leading the Ducks back to victory.

And the Cats are left with a bag full of “What ifs.”

Do you hate them for the pain of the close losses? For reminding us of other so-close seasons such as 1998 and 1993?

Or do you love them for coming so close in the first place?

When it was all over Saturday night and Oregon was celebrating, senior defensive tackle Earl Mitchell took a knee, alone, in the end zone. He rose, hands on hips, likely exhausted, taking it all in. As he took the slow walk to the locker room, the student section began chanting, “Ar-i-zon-a, Ar-i-zon-a.”

But the scoreboard read, Oregon 44, Arizona 41.

“You move forward and turn the page, as painful as it is,” Mike Stoops said.

The pain will only be magnified if Arizona doesn’t beat ASU.

You saw it. Cats lose 44-41 in two overtimes. Rose Bowl hopes … gone. Winning season … in jeopardy.

“This is a tough one tonight,” said UA coach Mike Stoops. “I thought our kids gave it a great effort. For the most part, I thought we had the right plan and had a lot of momentum late in the game and just lost it in the fourth quarter.

“Credit to Oregon. They made some plays down the stretch, some incredible plays. Jeremiah Masoli, that was one of the best performances I’ve seen in a long time by a quarterback. …

“We were one play short. It seems to be our story for the season. But I have no problems with our kids. I love our effort. Our kids competed, and that’s really all you can ask. That’s not a moral victory in any sort of way. It’s just life.”

(more postgame stuff here: Your Arizona Wildcats: Love them or hate them?)

* * *

Going down to field. Be back after game.

* * *

Oregon coach Chip Kelly isn’t bashful. He goes for on fourth-and-4 from the Oregon 45 with 6:32 left. Arizona stuff a pass to Jeff Maehl and takes over on downs.

* * *

Play of the Year. Juron Criner — one play after Oregon ties the game — takes a bubble screen and then absolutely out-races the Ducks to the end zone despite close pursuit from two defenders. I’m guessing he’s never run that fast in his life. I’m pretty sure the press box was shaking a bit as the fans rocked the stadium.

* * *

OK, it’s tied at 24 with 8:02 to go. Oregon’s Morgan Flint kicks a low field goal that looks short from 42 yards, but the ball hits the cross bar and bounces through for three points. Strange things always happen, huh?

* * *

UA needed Keenyn Crier to boom a punt; instead, a rugby-type punt goes 32 yards out of bounds at the UA 45. With momentum having switched back to the Ducks, they take over needing a field goal to tie. There’s 9:46 left.

* * *

You didn’t think Oregon would go quietly, did you? Oregon responds with a 79-yard drive in 10 plays, capped by a 1-yard Jeremiah Masoli run. That makes it 24-21 Arizona with 10:57 left.

* * *

Arizona makes a red-zone play on third-and-goal from the 5. Nick Foles fires to Bug Wright for 5-yard score (and what a difference a healthy Wright has made recently). Arizona leads 24-14 with 13:37 to go.

* * *

Oregon has been held scoreless for the past 25 minutes of game time.

* * *

Now, Oregon is self-destructing with an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty to end the third quarter. Arizona leads 17-14 and has the ball at the Ducks 10 for first down.

Do you believe?

* * *

Talk about a missed opportunity. Trevin Wade will never have an easier interception than the one he just dropped at about the Oregon 35. Jeremiah Masoli just lobbed a pass down field and Wade was all alone, but he dropped the ball as he tried to tuck it away. As it is, Oregon punts to the UA 29.

* * *

Arizona got inside the 10, but couldn’t get the touchdown. Couldn’t get the field goal, either, as Alex Zendejas drills one wide left. So, it’s still UA 17-14 with about 4 minutes to go in the third quarter.

UA, counting its fumble into the end zone in the first quarter, has left anywhere from six to 14 points in the red zone.

* * *

Shank you. A 14-yard Oregon punt sets up UA at its 46 to start a drive.

* * *

A punt downed at the 1, a defensive stop, a nice punt return by Bug Wright and a 31-yard touchdown drive for the lead. Arizona goes up 17-14 with 10:39 to go in the third quarter when fourth-string RB Nick Booth muscles in on an 8-yard run on third-and-3.

* * *

Grigsby back in, and he rushes for 16 yards to the Oregon 15 on his first play.

* * *

Fourth-and-1 from the Oregon 48? Would you go for it? Mike Stoops decides to punt, and Keenyn Crier drops one near the goal line that UA’s Lyle Brown (no, I haven’t heard of him either) gets in front of and pokes out of bounds inside the 1.

* * *

Forgot to mention this earlier — there’s been no Nic Grigsby since the first quarter, no Keola Antolin since the first play of the second quarter. Looks like UA will have to make do with third-string RB Greg Nwoko.

* * *

Total yards at halftime: Arizona 206, Oregon 181.

* * *

Add this to the list of things I never thought I would see: Alex Zendejas making a 47-yard field goal (no, that wasn’t what I thought I would never see), but then he strutted over and taunted the Oregon sideline, which had called two timeouts to “ice” him. Game officials and some players had to step in before a situation developed. A kicker talking smack to the other team? That’s what I thought I wouldn’t see.

Anyway, Zendejas’ career-best field goal on the final play cut Oregon’s lead to 14-10 at halftime. Not bad for the Cats, who made some bad plays and had some bad luck, but have hung around … and they get the ball to start the second half.

Should be fun.

* * *

A break. Cam Nelson tips a Jeremiah Masoli pass, which is intercepted by LB Sterling Lewis and returned 3 yards to the Oregon 44. With the help of a 22-yard pass down the middle to Bug Wright, and a 19-yard screen pass to Greg Nwoko, Arizona drives into scoring position inside the 10.

Arizona gets on the board with a 5-yard fade pass to the left corner from Nick Foles to Juron Criner, who out-leaps CB Cliff Harris. Oregon leads 14-7 with 1:59 before half.

* * *

UA is stuffed on third-and-1 from its 35, and Keenyn Crier gets off a short punt. There is a smattering of booing, which prompts somebody in the press box to comment: “Sounds like an ASU game.”

There’s 4:27 to go before half. Ducks still up 14-0.

* * *

Rose Bowl officials are here in the press box. They must like what they’re seeing from the Ducks.

* * *

You can bemoan the bad luck on fumbles, but Arizona was its own worst enemy on its most recent drive — an illegal block on the kickoff return, a sack, a delay-of-game penalty … and a punt.

Against Oregon, the game can get away from you in a hurry.

* * *

The ball isn’t round and it takes funny bounces. Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli fumbles on his first play of the second quarter, and four or five Wildcats are there to recover it. But the ball gets batted backward and receiver Jeff Maehl recovers for Oregon. On the very next play, Masoli goes deep and finds Lavasier Tuinei for a 37-yard reception.

And on the very next play, LaMichael James runs for 21 yards.

And then …

Masoli fumbles again on second-and-goal but TE David Paulson is there to cover it up for Oregon.

You sense the pattern here … on the next play (third-and-goal from the 9), Masoli spins out of trouble in the backfield and, in what almost appeared to be a throw-away pass, hit Maehl near the sideline and he slips into the end zone for a 14-0 lead with 10:07 left in the second quarter.

With a couple of different bounces …
You can bemoan not getting any luck on the fumbles, but Arizona was its own worst enemy in its most recent drive — an illegal block on the kickoff return, a sack, a delay-of-game penalty … and a punt.

Against Oregon, the game can get away from you in a hurry.

* * *

The sold-out stadium got awfully quiet. Arizona, on a drive fueled by a couple of big plays from Keola Antolin, had first-and-goal from the 10, when Nick Foles completed a pass to David Douglas on the right side. Douglas cut inside the hashmarks and was at about the 2 when a hit by free safety T.J. Ward jarred the ball loose. Defensive end Will Tukuafu recovered in the end zone for the Ducks.

Not the kind of thing that upsets are made of.

The Arizona defense forced a three-and-out and UA had the ball back as the first quarter ended 7-0. Lower-scoring than most thought so far, but more fireworks are to come.

* * *

After two drives, Oregon has 53 yards on seven rushes. Positive news for Arizona’s defense is that it is doing a decent job on first done, which gives the Cats a fighting chance to stop the fast-paced Ducks’ offense.

* * *

Nic Grigsby starts at running back, which is a good sign for Arizona. But the Cats have to punt after gaining one first down, which is not a good sign.

* * *

Oregon scores a touchdown on the opening drive of the game, and Arizona did a couple of things it can’t do. First, the Ducks’ read-option game forces the defense to devote extra personnel to the run, which means more man coverage from the cornerbacks, who must have a good game. Devin Ross was called for pass interference on the second play of the game.

Secondly, when Arizona has the chance to make a tackle, it can’t whiff. The Wildcats had a chance to stop LaMichael James at the line of the scrimmage, but he broke free for a 22-yard gain to the UA 34.

QB Jeremiah Masoli scores the touchdown on second-and-goal from the 14, making a brilliant cut to get away from UA defenders, including end Ricky Elmore, who was probably held on the play.

* * *

Arizona, as expected, is in its all-red uniforms. The Cats are not, however, wearing red helmets, as rumored. They are in their usual blue.

* * *

Here we are, the biggest home game in Arizona history. We’ll be blogging here, and feel free to leave you opinions in the comments section.

PREGAME

Oregon has scored at least 42 points in each of six Pac-10 games in which quarterback Jeremiah Masoli has played. The Ducks scored 45 in the first half against Arizona last season.

“They’re difficult to defend and they are going to put you in a bind,” said defensive coordinator Mark Stoops.

Typically, in the read-option game, the quarterback reads the defensive end and then makes a decision on whether to hand off or keep the ball. Mark Stoops said Oregon’s offense has evolved past that, just another reason why the Ducks are so hard to defend.

“They’re very interesting and very innovative in what they do,” Stoops said. “The pressure used to be on the ends, now they put the same pressure on nose guard, the three-technique, the ‘backers and the ends. They zone read everybody. It’s going to take a great effort.”

Stoops praised the physical running of Masoli, which makes him different than ex-Oregon quarterback Dennis Dixon.

“I would say Dixon was a little flashier at times and a little bit more difficult to defend in the open field,” Stoops said. “But Masoli just gets it done. He is very streaky. He is very physical. Masoli is stronger (than Dixon).”

Read more in the weekly Nothing but the Notes column from our partner WildaboutAZcats.com.

With seven of the eight precincts reporting, we have four picks for Oregon and three for the Wildcats. Looks like everyone is seeing a shootout … everyone except Andy Morales, that is.

Brad Allis — WildcatSportsReport.com
The Cats can clearly win this game, but I think they need to get up early and use some long, time-consuming drives to do so. Once the Oregon offense gets rolling, it is tough to slow down, so keeping them off the field is vital. I really want to pick the Cats, and think that playing at home is key, but Oregon is the better team. Oregon 45, Arizona 41.

Recent posts:

• Calculated praise for the Zona Zoo
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* * *

Steve Rivera — SteveRiveraVentures.com
Big game? Only means one thing: Arizona won’t win it. Sure, it beat Oregon in another big game just recently, but not now. Truth be told, Oregon isn’t all THAT good. But this is what we consider a big game these days. Oregon 38, Arizona 17.

Recent posts:

• Arizona wins 66-49; Miller says his team ‘not very good right now’
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* * *

Javier Morales — WildAboutAZCats.com

This will be a nail-biter like the Stanford game, and a high-scoring affair like last year in Eugene. The Cats are not in awe of the Ducks after last year’s near comeback and relatively easy victory two years ago in Tucson — when ESPN also happened to be in town. Arizona 42, Oregon 38.

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• McCallum and others should wait until the spring to decide

* * *

Scott Terrell — UASports.net
The only way the Cats win is if Nick Foles is better than he was against Stanford and Nic Grigsby plays the whole game and the game is decided by more than three points. Arizona 52, Oregon 48.

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* * *

Matt Minkus — The Matt Minkus Show
Oregon has too many weapons on offense and sees the Rose Bowl in distance. Arizona keeps it close most of the game. Oregon 31, Arizona 23.

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* * *

Andy Morales — High School Sports in Baja Arizona

I think both teams will struggle to score with the hype, but Arizona will take a late lead and hold on by running the ball instead of attempting any more late game passes. Karma has to come Arizona’s way someday … Arizona 21, Oregon 14.

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* * *

Anthony Gimino — AG’s Wildcat Report
Plenty of stranger things have happened, and an upset is possible if Arizona plays fast and loose — the ingredients that have fueled previous November upsets under Mike Stoops. UA’s defensive speed is a decent matchup for Oregon’s read-option offense, but can the Cats tackle well enough? Not quite. Oregon 42, Arizona 35.

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