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AG's Wildcat Report - Dispatches on the Wildcats, from Anthony Gimino

UA’s bowl hopes: From Holiday to (possibly) home for the holidays

by on Nov. 22, 2009, under Sports

Pac-10 logo_edited

Five teams from the Pac-10 already have seven victories and are qualified for a bowl. Arizona has six victories, which makes the Wildcats bowl-possible … but, remember, all the teams with winning records get placed ahead of those with 6-6 records.

UCLA also has six victories with one game to play — at USC this Saturday.

Three Pac-10 teams have been eliminated from the postseason.

Oregon, Oregon State, Cal, Stanford and USC are in. If Arizona wins at Arizona State or USC — and UCLA loses to the Trojans — the Wildcats are a sure thing to grab one of the league’s six contracted bowl bids.

But …

If UCLA gets to seven wins, and Arizona loses twice more to finish with six, the Wildcats might not be bowling at all. They would be shut out of the Pac-10 bowls and would have to hope to find an open spot somewhere else. A 6-6 team can only go to a bowl if all the other winning teams across the country have been exhausted and filled 68 postseason slots.

Even if there was an opening, would a 6-6 Arizona team on a four-game losing streak be especially attractive?

Basically, it’s like this: Beat Arizona State, and Arizona can at least count on the Poinsettia Bowl.

Lose twice more, and this has turned into one miserable season.

Here are other bowl destinations and how UA could land there:

Holiday Bowl
* Arizona beats Arizona State and USC to finish at 6-3 in the league.
* Oregon beats Oregon State, giving the Beavers three losses and creating at least a three-team tie for second.

The Holiday would be free to pick among any of the tied times, which would include Stanford (already finished in Pac-10 at 6-3) and possibly Cal, which is 5-3 and finishes at Washington on Dec. 5.

Arizona would be attractive among that group because the Wildcats would have won their final two games, would be coming off a win over USC … and you know the ‘Zonies would travel to San Diego.

Sun Bowl
* Arizona beats Arizona State and USC to finish at 6-3 in the league.

If UA finishes second but gets passed over by the Holiday Bowl, the Sun Bowl would love to grab the Wildcats.

If Oregon State beats Oregon, the Wildcats would finish in a tie for third, and the El Paso bowl likely would prefer Arizona over any other third-place team because of its geography and the length of time — 17 years — since UA has played in that bowl.

Emerald Bowl/Las Vegas Bowl
These teams have the fourth and fifth selection in the Pac-10, and can swap out picks to create the best matchup. If UA wins out, it would finish no worse than fifth in the conference pecking order.

Poinsettia Bowl
* Arizona splits its final two games to finish 7-5 overall and 5-4 in the Pac-10. The Wildcats would finish no worse than sixth in the league, keeping ahead of UCLA no matter what the Bruins do.

This entry was posted on Sunday, November 22nd, 2009 at 5:56 pm and is filed under Sports. Tags for this post: , , , , . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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  • JJ Gildersneeze

    I think the Wildcats still have a lot to play for, and if they win out they have a great chance to go to the Holiday Bowl, where they’d play somebody like Okla State or Nebraska. Which is nothing to turn up your nose at…

    A lot will turn on the Ducks-Beavers and the Wildcats-Trojans games.

    Let’s assume that the Ducks win out and own the Rose Bowl spot. All else being equal, I think most of the relevant bowl committees, including the Holiday, would try to get USC should it finish with only 3 losses.

    If the Beavers win, the Ducks would get the Holiday spot, and the scramble becomes about the Sun Bowl, which again, would likely take SC if it could.

    So, beat SC and the Wildcats could clinch at least 3rd and perhaps 2nd place. Lose to SC and be part of the scrum for the Pointsettia/Vegas/Emerald with Cal and Stanford.

    Either way, a great chance to show off the Pac-10 against one of those other, lesser conferences.

    JJ

    • Anthony Gimino

      JJ,
      I think you have that right about the Holiday and Sun jumping on USC if they get the chance. I guess it’s up to Arizona (and UCLA) to make sure those bowls don’t get that chance.
       

  • 1AtATime…’N'CatsTakeState!

    Wow. This is especially frightening considering just a week or so ago we were saying we could lose a game here, win a game there and we’d still be in line for the Rose Bowl.  What a difference a week or two – a play or two - makes in the wacky PAC-10.  If Stoops needs any additional ammo to get his team’s full attention, this might be it.  Who knows anymore?

  • http://none JimBodkins

    Not to be a wet blanket … but at what point do we carefully examine the state of the program?

    We are about to spend nearly one half billion dollars. I think we need to take a look. How will we feel about spending half billion dollars for a program that performs like this? Why do I say that? Wouldnt it be nice to say … a team that has accomplished so much deserves better facilities … instead of … maybe if we throw money at the problem it will get better.

    Remember, there is no taking it back. If they move forward – and they will – we will eat it one way or the other – with or without a rose bowl.

    Maybe a performance requirement should be established first. The football team must enter a period in which it has won fifty percent more games than it has lost before being eligible for major facility upgrades. (But then it would never happen I suppose)

    Are there alternatives? For example an academic exemption for football players might prove more productive than half billion bucks of new plumbing.

    Basketball performs … a small portion of that money will get the football team out of McKale. The productive basketball program deserves that. (As do so many other programs)

    And how do we protect the University itself for any negative consequences? Like what? How about a nationally ranked (academically) university getting a black eye on national TV over a football game?

    Game day truthfully was a Dooms Day for the UofA in many ways.

    In addition, am I the only one that gets chills thinking about a Livengood plan costing half billion dollars? Oh my god!

    How do we avoid this future … Arizona loses a close one again and their reputation as an instution takes another hit … but their new half billion dollar digs look great.

    You put half billion dollars in space sciences and you get rovers on mars (if its on mars the info comes through the UofA).

    If you spend half billion dollars on a non-perform (historically) football program ….

    … what do you get?

    (sorry, dont mean to be a downer. But this is folding money and will effect the UofA’s future in general).

  • http://none JimBodkins

    I forgot to add … this isnt about Stoops or the players.

    Its a broader question going more to the entire history of Arizona football.

    What is the problem? Facilities or academic entrance requirements or locale or … maybe its athletic directors. Do we know? Has anyone presented a clear and convincing explanation of the problem and the fixes?

    Sorry … its not about Stoops or the players.

  • http://none JimBodkins

    I think the players and stoops deserve a bowl. I think (hope) they will split at worse.

  • RWildcat

    hmmm… maybe it’s more about the lack of a football tradition here in Tucson due to fans jumping ship at the first sign of adversity. if the university had thought about ditching the football program, it would have done it after Mackovic left it in shambles. Isn’t the football program a money maker for athletics programs at the university? i believe the stadium upgrades are being paid for 100% with private funds, so no education dollars are being diverted for <gasp> frivolous and underserved upgrades. sure, let’s hog tie the program with ridiculous performance standards and then wonder why we can’t get a decent coach on the level of Florida, Texas, or USC… that’s a great idea!

    • http://none JimBodkins

      I have no idea how long you have been here, but UofA has had better coaches than Stoops in the past, done well and lost them … Smith to USC where in five years he won a rose bowl and was ranked in the top 10 three times is an example.

      When you build facilities on campus, it is never entirely privately funded. Its a long term committment of money and resources.

      Fans have never jumped ship … I have decided you havent been here long. This is a very old story. You are watching something happen that I have watched probably four other times in the past.

      I never mentioned ‘ditching’ anything.

      Making money isnt the point … but by comparison they dont. The UofA basketball players (Olson) that have played in the NBA have earned somewhere between 600 and 900 million dollars – nearly one billion dollars. I think the UofA basketball program does 11 million a year.

      Hog tie? If any coach had one check bounce from their seven figure incomes – whey would walk. Here is reality in the big time – get seven figures … perform. Tell you what … any coach that doesnt perform and receives seven figures – YOU pay them.

      This is a land grant university. That means something. Football (and basketball etc) is inconsequential and not the point of a land grand university.

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