Tucson Citizen.com
Wry Heat - by Jonathan DuHamel

Climate Model Projections vs Real World Observations

by on Feb. 02, 2011, under Climate change

 

The Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change in Tempe, Arizona, has just issued a major report that compares projections from climate models to real world observations.

The report deals with the following climate model claims: “(1) unprecedented warming of the planet, (2) more frequent and severe floods and droughts, (3) more numerous and stronger hurricanes, (4) dangerous sea level rise, (5) more frequent and severe storms, (6) increased human mortality, (7) widespread plant and animal extinctions, (8) declining vegetative productivity, (9) deadly coral bleaching, and (10) a decimation of the planet’s marine life due to ocean acidification. And in conjunction with these analyses, we proffer our view of what the future may hold with respect to the climatic and biological consequences of the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content, concluding by providing an assessment of what we feel should be done about the situation.”

The 168-page report (2.5Mb) may be downloaded here.

“Real-world observations fail to confirm essentially all of the alarming predictions of significant increases in the frequency and severity of droughts, floods and hurricanes that climate models suggest should occur in response to a global warming of the magnitude that was experienced by the earth over the past two centuries as it gradually recovered from the much-lower-than-present temperatures characteristic of the depths of the Little Ice Age. And other observations have shown that the rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations associated with the development of the Industrial Revolution have actually been good for the planet, as they have significantly enhanced the plant productivity and vegetative water use efficiency of earth’s natural and agro-ecosystems, leading to a significant “greening of the earth.”



  • Uncle Genie

    I note that, in the first paragraph of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change’s position paper entitled “Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming/Where We Stand on the Issue” is the following statement:
    Furthermore, it is highly unlikely that future increases in the air’s CO2 content will produce any global warming; for there are numerous problems with the popular hypothesis that links the two phenomena.
    By this position statement we are advised that the entitled Center is not purposed to science as much as it is to advocacy. In direct effect, its surveys and publications will be expected to reflect a bias towards its point of view: a grain of salt.
    My real world observation: we bet our lives.

    • Jonathan DuHamel

      You are correct that the Center has a certain position because there is no evidence to the contrary. If you think their position is wrong, then produce some physical evidence to counter that position.

  • Hugh Holub

    There have always been apocolyptic religions predicting the end of the world as we know it. The newest version is a form of environmentalism that blames humans for everything and positions itself as the new Keepers of Eden.  Anyone who dares question the new dogma is a heretic and must be burnt at the stake.

    What “modern” folks don’t seem to grasp is the climate is constantly changing with or without human influence.

  • http://blindedbyscience.co.uk/ Shala Donaho

    This research causes a major problem for climate change supporters who use tree ring changes as the basis for their arguments showing that the world has got hotter. They will be disappointed to discover that all they have proven is the fact there have been a lot of changes in solar and planetary activity over the past two thousand years.

  • http://ordinaryjoe.ca/aftertweet/pg/blog/danniederflinger/read/29956/your-next-fantastic-las-vegas-vacation Rena Tisdale

    Obama’s capitulation on the tax cuts is a craven, inexcusable, pathetic act of political cowardice that legitimizes all the left-wing whining about him that generally has been, until this point, unmerited.