Weather extremes not increasing with warmingby Jonathan DuHamel on Mar. 01, 2012, under Climate change
Extreme weather makes news. It is a tenet of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming adherents (CAGWs) that extreme weather events have become and will become ever more common as the planet warms. However, new research in Europe, based on historical records and tree-rings, covering the period AD 962–2007, shows no trend in extreme weather events. In fact, the researchers found “A fairly uniform distribution of hydroclimatic extremes throughout the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age and Recent Global Warming…”
The paper is Buntgen, U.et al., 2011. Combined dendro-documentary evidence of Central European hydroclimatic springtime extremes over the last millennium. Quaternary Science Reviews 30: 3947-3959..(Link to abstract, the full paper is behind a pay wall.)
The abstract reads:
A predicted rise in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and associated effects on the Earth’s climate system likely imply more frequent and severe weather extremes with alternations in hydroclimatic parameters expected to be most critical for ecosystem functioning, agricultural yield, and human health. Evaluating the return period and amplitude of modern climatic extremes in light of pre-industrial natural changes is, however, limited by generally too short instrumental meteorological observations. Here we introduce and analyze 11,873 annually resolved and absolutely dated ring width measurement series from living and historical fir (Abies alba Mill.) trees sampled across France, Switzerland, Germany, and the Czech Republic, which continuously span the AD 962–2007 period. Even though a dominant climatic driver of European fir growth was not found, ring width extremes were evidently triggered by anomalous variations in Central European April–June precipitation. Wet conditions were associated with dynamic low-pressure cells, whereas continental-scale droughts coincided with persistent high-pressure between 35 and 55°N. Documentary evidence independently confirms many of the dendro signals over the past millennium, and further provides insight on causes and consequences of ambient weather conditions related to the reconstructed extremes. A fairly uniform distribution of hydroclimatic extremes throughout the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age and Recent Global Warming may question the common believe that frequency and severity of such events closely relates to climate mean stages. This joint dendro-documentary approach not only allows extreme climate conditions of the industrial era to be placed against the backdrop of natural variations, but also probably helps to constrain climate model simulations over exceptional long timescales.
In a previous post, Media pawns in IPCC extreme weather hype, I present research and graphics that show there have been no upward trends in droughts, wet weather, or hurricanes as the world warmed from the “little ice age.”
In spite of science to the contrary, CAGWs and the IPCC must continue to present their scary stories to secure funding to fight their imagined hobgoblins and gain power. And such stories sell newspapers.