IPCC 95% Certain – hold on to your walletsby Jonathan DuHamel on Aug. 28, 2013, under Miscellaneous Stories
As part of the runup propaganda for the IPCC’s latest summary report on climate, to be released in September, the media are abuzz with the IPCC’s latest dire wild guesses. Reuters, for instance writes this:
“Drafts seen by Reuters of the study by the U.N. panel of experts, due to be published next month, say it is at least 95 percent likely that human activities – chiefly the burning of fossil fuels – are the main cause of warming since the 1950s.”
95 percent certain? I wonder how they can tell. Anthony Watts, proprietor of WUWT blog, has devised a little quiz. Below are two graphs of temperatures, one from 1895 to 1946 when warming was due to Nature with little or no influence from carbon dioxide, versus a graph from 1957 to 2008 when warming was supposedly due to human carbon dioxide emissions according to the IPCC. Can you tell which is which?
Did Nature stop working in 1950? The Arizona Daily Star parroted the propaganda in an editorial. Within that editorial is this statement: “The past three decades were probably the hottest in 800 years.” Even if that statement were true, it reflects disingenuous cherry-picking which gives one a false impression of the state of things. That’s because the “800 years” stops short of including the Medieval Warm Period of 1,000 years ago when temperatures were warmer than now.
The Star editorial contains innuendo without providing proof “The draft is appropriately careful when discussing global warming’s effects. The sea is rising faster in recent years than before.”
The rate of sea level rise is cyclical and related to the 11-year solar cycle. NOAA puts normal sea level rise as cycling between 1 to 3mm per year, about the thickness of one or two pennies. The higher rate, if it continued until the year 2100, would produce a scary sea level rise of 10 inches (See Sea Level Rising?).
Star: “Climate change probably has caused more extreme weather events, such as heat waves.” But real data shows no trend in droughts, wet weather, hurricanes, heat wave, or snow fall (see here and here )
IPCC predictions are based on computer modeling rather than physical evidence and they have yet to present any physical evidence to back up their contention that global warming is “likely” caused by human carbon dioxide emissions.
P.S. On the quiz, I think the left graph is the more recent since it seems to show the temperature spike from the super El Nino of 1998.