Dr. Roy Spencer presents the latest measurements of lower troposphere temperature as measured by two sets of satellites. See his post here. He presents a graph showing measured temperatures versus model predictions.

You can see that actual global temperatures have flattened out since about 1998. The “spaghetti” on the graph represents predictions of 44 models and the black line is the average of model predictions.

Spencer presents three possible explanations for the divergence:

“1) the real climate system is not as sensitive to increasing CO₂ as the models are programmed to be.” (His preferred explanation).

“2) the extra surface heating from more CO₂ has been diluted more than expected by increased mixing with cooler, deeper ocean waters (Trenberth’s explanation)”

The oceans have a high heat capacity and can absorb great quantities of heat. But have they? The subject is controversial. Anthony Watts discusses the problem here. He notes a recent study which says that between 1955 and 2010, the temperature of the global ocean, between the surface and a depth of 2,000 meters increased in temperature by 0.09 C. That’s not much and Watts wonders if we can even measure to that precision.

“3) increased manmade aerosol pollution is causing a cooling influence, partly mitigating the manmade CO₂ warming.”

However, a 2007 satellite-based NASA study shows that aerosols have been decreasing steadily since 1992. In particular, sulfate aerosols have been greatly decreasing since establishment of the 1970 Clean Air Act in the U.S. and similar measures in Europe.

Explanations #2 and #3 seem to have problems. That leaves #1: the climate is not very sensitive to carbon dioxide and is much less sensitive than models assume. The forcing effect of carbon dioxide, if any, is apparently easily overcome by stronger natural forces.

If Spencer’s first explanation is correct, the political war on fossil fuel emissions is futile and will have little or no effect on global temperatures, but that war will cost us dearly by raising energy prices and making our electric grid less reliable.

See also:

Global warming theory fails again

Failure of the Anthropogenic Global Warming Hypothesis

Methane hydrate is a solid substance in which methane (natural gas) is trapped in the crystal structure of ice. Methane hydrate occurs in marine sediments and crops out on the ocean floor where the pressure is sufficiently high and the temperature is sufficiently low. Technically, methane hydrate is called a clathrate which means that water molecules freeze into a lattice-like structure capable of trapping gas inside. These compounds can also occur in permafrost. The methane is produced from microbial decomposition of plankton which sinks to the ocean floor. See a short explanation from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) here. See also an article at Geology.com here. The map below shows the estimated global distribution of methane hydrates.

Estimates of the total resource vary widely. Gas units are often given in units of one trillion cubic feet (TCF). The USGS says that resources estimates from studies over the last 15 years vary from one million- to fifty million TCF of natural gas. The lower estimate is more than 4,000 times the annual US consumption of natural gas. The lower estimate is also at least twice as much as all other fossil fuels combined.

The big question now is: can these resources be technically and economically recovered?

Last year, the Department of Energy partnering with ConocoPhillips and Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp. produced a steady flow of natural gas in the first field test of the new method that injects carbon dioxide into Alaskan permafrost. The carbon dioxide replaces the methane in the clathrate structure.

Last month, Japan became the first country to extract natural gas from methane hydrates in the sea bed. (See story in The Asahi Shimbun here.) According to that story, Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp. was able to extract natural gas from a layer 330 meters below a 1,000-meter-deep floor of the Pacific Ocean. Water was pumped out of the methane hydrate sediment layer causing a drop in pressure which liberated the gas. Methane was collected by pipes. The Japanese government plans to establish production technology by fiscal 2018 and then begin production. “The seas around Japan are estimated to hold enough methane hydrate to produce as much natural gas as Japan consumes in 100 years.”

This is still emerging technology that could hold great promise, similar to the vast new resources made recoverable by the “fracking” revolution in shale oil and gas.

See also:

Geologic History: PETM when it really got hot

Methane hydrates probably played a part in the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) which was a global temperature spike that happened about 55 million years ago.

Torch Renewable Energy , a Houston company, is seeking permission to construct a wind farm near Allen Flat, north of Interstate 10, about 20 miles west of Willcox, Arizona. According to a story in Willcox Range News, the project proposes to construct up to 28 wind turbines with a combined plate capacity of 51 Megawatts. (Plate capacity is the ideal potential for generation. Usually, however, wind turbines actually deliver only about 20 percent of rated plate capacity.) Torch says that this project, dubbed “Red Horse 2 Wind Farm,” “will invest between $100 – $125 million in infrastructure in Cochise County related to the project.”

Each turbine will be as much as 487 feet high with a blade diameter of 192 feet. The company claims this project will employ 20 people during the construction phase and result in four permanent jobs.

 According to the company website, “Torch Renewable Energy is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Torch Energy Advisors Incorporated (“TEAI”), a diversified energy company with 27 years of experience developing, acquiring, and operating over $10 billion of oil and gas properties, gas pipelines and processing facilities, oil and gas services businesses, and renewable energy projects.”

 The website of TEAI provides little detail about their projects. Rather, they seem to be a vehicle for venture capitalists and other investors. TEAI says, “Torch Energy Advisors, Inc. (TEAI) maintains or manages the interests of third parties’ interests in a variety of oil and gas producing properties, natural gas pipelines and hydrocarbon treating and processing facilities.”

 The proposed location of the Red Horse 2 Wind Farm seems to be well away from habitation. That is good because there is some evidence that low-frequency vibrations from wind farms cause illness, dubbed wind turbine syndrome, which includes sleep problems, irritability, and depression: see “Health Hazards of Wind Turbines.”

 According to the Willcox Range News, Torch plans initial construction to begin in the 4^th quarter of this year with turbine installation in the 2^nd quarter of 2014, all contingent on the outcome of bird and bat studies. Wind turbines tend to chop up birds and bats. This is of some concern since the Willcox Playa Wildlife Area hosts hundreds of species of birds during the winter migration.

 This article originally appeared in the Arizona Daily Independent.

See also:

Wind turbines versus wildlife

Health Hazards of Wind Turbines