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	<title>Wry Heat &#187; debt limit</title>
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		<title>The economy, the deficit, and the blame game</title>
		<link>http://tucsoncitizen.com/wryheat/2011/08/10/the-economy-the-deficit-and-the-blame-game/</link>
		<comments>http://tucsoncitizen.com/wryheat/2011/08/10/the-economy-the-deficit-and-the-blame-game/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Aug 2011 17:46:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jonathan DuHamel</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[debt limit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deficit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[government spending]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tucsoncitizen.com/wryheat/?p=854</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The recent volatility of the stock market caused proximally by the brinksmanship over raising the Federal debt limit ceiling has precipitated much discussion over who is to blame. From my point of view, the chart below shows the major problem.                           This whole [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: justify">The recent volatility of the stock market caused proximally by the brinksmanship over raising the Federal debt limit ceiling has precipitated much discussion over who is to blame. From my point of view, the chart below shows the major problem.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify"><a rel="attachment wp-att-855" href="http://tucsoncitizen.com/wryheat/2011/08/10/the-economy-the-deficit-and-the-blame-game/deficit/"><img class="alignleft size-large wp-image-855" src="http://tucsoncitizen.com/wryheat/files/2011/08/deficit-550x413.jpg" alt="" width="550" height="413" /></a></p>
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<p style="text-align: justify">This whole thing started in 2008 when the subprime mortgage bubble burst. Congress had encouraged, even mandated, that banks lend money to unqualified real estate buyers in the name of social justice. The banks probably realized the folly, so they repackaged the mortgages in a variety of derivatives and sold them far and wide. When, not surprisingly, it turned out that the unqualified borrowers could not repay the loans, the whole thing collapsed.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify">Once again Congress came to the rescue with a series of bailouts and massive spending projects that were supposed to, according to Keynesian theory, save the economy and create jobs. We are still waiting for that Keynesian magic to work.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify">All that led to the debt limit crisis and the downgrading of America’s credit rating by S&amp;P, something that our Turbo Tax Treasury Secretary said would never happen.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify">Hence the blame game. Thomas Sowell <a href="http://townhall.com/columnists/thomassowell/2011/08/10/a_pyrrhic_victory/page/full/"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><span style="color: #0000ff">opines</span></span></span></a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p style="text-align: justify">Why was there a financial crisis in the first place? Because of runaway spending that sent the national debt up against the legal limit. But when all the big spending bills were being rushed through Congress, the Democrats had such an overwhelming majority in both houses of Congress that nothing the Republicans could do made the slightest difference.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify">Yet polls show that many people today are blaming the Republicans for the country&#8217;s financial problems. But, by the time Republicans gained control of the House of Representatives, and thus became involved in negotiations over raising the national debt ceiling, the spending which caused that crisis in the first place had already been done &#8212; and done by Democrats.</p>
</blockquote>
<p style="text-align: justify">It seems that Democrats are better at the blame game than Republicans.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify">Through all this President Obama pontificated but offered no real plan. That has prompted Walter Williams to ask whether that was through &#8220;<a href="http://townhall.com/columnists/walterewilliams/2011/08/10/ignorance,_stupidity_or_connivance/page/full/"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><span style="color: #0000ff">Ignorance Stupidity or Connivance</span></span></span></a>.&#8221;</p>
<p style="text-align: justify">The Congress is in its August recess so we are relatively safe for the moment, but when they return, if they are to show any real responsibility, they must make real cuts government spending.</p>
<p>　</p>
<p>See also:</p>
<p><a href="http://tucsoncitizen.com/wryheat/2010/11/29/tax-the-rich-by-lowering-tax-rates/"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><span style="color: #0000ff">Tax the Rich by Lowering Tax Rates</span></span></span></a></p>
<p><a href="http://tucsoncitizen.com/wryheat/2010/05/21/taxes-and-spending/"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><span style="color: #0000ff">Taxes and Spending</span></span></span></a></p>
<p><a href="http://tucsoncitizen.com/wryheat/2010/07/30/dereliction-of-duty-by-congress-and-obama/"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><span style="color: #0000ff">Dereliction of Duty by Congress and Obama</span></span></span></a></p>
<p><a href="http://tucsoncitizen.com/wryheat/2011/02/14/does-congress-really-have-to-raise-debt-ceiling/"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><span style="color: #0000ff">Does Congress Really Have to Raise Debt Ceiling?</span></span></span></a></p>
<p><a href="http://tucsoncitizen.com/wryheat/2010/11/02/note-to-the-next-congress/"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><span style="color: #0000ff">Note to the Next Congress</span></span></span></a></p>
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		<title>Does Congress Really Have to Raise Debt Ceiling?</title>
		<link>http://tucsoncitizen.com/wryheat/2011/02/14/does-congress-really-have-to-raise-debt-ceiling/</link>
		<comments>http://tucsoncitizen.com/wryheat/2011/02/14/does-congress-really-have-to-raise-debt-ceiling/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Feb 2011 16:15:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jonathan DuHamel</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bond market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Congress]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[debt limit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[default]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tucsoncitizen.com/wryheat/?p=590</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The headline in the print edition of Monday’s Arizona Daily Star read, &#8220;Failure to raise debt limit quickly could cripple US.&#8221; That editorial is a reprint of an article from the Miami Herald which begins: &#8220;As the nation struggles to revive a stalled economy, the Obama administration and House Republicans are on a collision course [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The headline in the print edition of Monday’s Arizona Daily Star read, &#8220;<strong>Failure to raise debt limit quickly could cripple US</strong>.&#8221; That editorial is a reprint of an <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/02/10/v-print/2059789/getting-serious-about-deficit.html"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><span style="color: #0000ff">article</span></span></a> from the Miami Herald which begins: &#8220;As the nation struggles to revive a stalled economy, the Obama administration and House Republicans are on a collision course over whether to lift the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling before it expires on March 4. The two sides must reach agreement within days to avoid stifling the economic recovery that is barely under way. The administration insists that there is no alternative to raising the debt ceiling. Failure would not only result in another government shutdown, but it would also cause panic in the bond markets.&#8221;</p>
<p>The Reason Foundation, a libertarian, free-market think tank takes a different view:</p>
<blockquote><p>The statutory debt limit, or debt ceiling, was designed to control congressional spending by limiting the amount of debt the federal government could accumulate. Clearly, it has not fulfilled its legislative purpose. In fact, the government has lost its ability to monitor its own spending. Having to raise the debt ceiling yet again is a sign that Congress has failed to do what is necessary to get the nation’s finances in order. Here are three myths about the debt ceiling, each one rebutted by a fact.</p>
<p><strong>Myth 1: Failure to increase the debt ceiling is insanity. Unless we increase the debt ceiling, the U.S. government will default on its debt.</strong></p>
<p><strong>Fact 1: The federal government has other options. If the debt ceiling is not increased, the Treasury Department can make interest and debt payment its first priority to avoid a default. Then it can essentially put the government on a stringent pay-as-you-go basis.</strong></p>
<p>The Obama administration warns of an economic armageddon if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling. It is called &#8220;insanity&#8221; not to take the simple step of allowing the government to borrow more money. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has warned that if we don’t increase the debt ceiling the U.S. would default, resulting in a bond market crash with disastrous impacts felt at home and abroad.</p>
<p>Technically, if the debt nears its statutory limit, the Treasury Department cannot issue new debt to manage short-term cash flows or manage the annual deficit—the government may therefore be unable to pay its bills. But in the real world things are different.</p>
<p>First, if the debt ceiling is not increased it doesn’t mean the federal government will have to repay the entire debt at once. The government just won’t be able to increase its borrowing. Americans understand the difference between not being able to borrow more money and defaulting on one’s mortgage.</p>
<p>Also, while Congress has never before refused to raise the debt ceiling, it has frequently taken its time about doing so. In 1985, for example, Congress waited nearly three months after the debt limit was reached before it authorized a permanent increase. In 1995, four and a half months passed between the time that the government hit its statutory limit and the time Congress acted. And in 2002, Congress delayed raising the debt ceiling for three months. It took three months to raise the debt limit back in 1985 as well. In none of those cases did the world end.</p>
<p>More importantly, the Treasury Department has other options. For instance, if the debt ceiling is not increased, the Treasury can prioritize interest and debt payment to avoid a default.</p>
<p>If Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling, the federal government will still have more than enough money to fully service the debt. This year, for instance, about 6.1 percent of all projected federal expenditures will go to interest on the debt, and tax revenue is projected to cover about 60.1 percent of all government expenditures. With roughly 10 times more income than needed to honor its debt obligations, why would the government ever default?</p>
<p>Let’s sum it up: As long as the government continues to pay interest on the debt, then it technically is not in default. With tax revenues expected to be $2.2 trillion, interest payments amount to roughly $300 billion—this would still leave $1.9 trillion in revenues to pay for the government&#8217;s most important priorities. For instance, lawmakers could decide to honor the promises made to people benefiting from entitlement spending, such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. In that case, even after paying for all of the entitlement spending, the Treasury would still have $300 billion left.</p>
<p>Would that involve cuts in government spending? Absolutely. But it could, and should, be done.</p>
<p>Would it make the bond market nervous? Yes, it would. Not raising the debt ceiling would probably introduce additional uncertainty. However, market participants (especially foreign creditors who now own a majority of our debt held by the public) may have already changed their expectations due to the increased attention to this issue and because of the alarmist language being used by the Treasury and White House.</p>
<p>With some signs of life—such as increases in consumer spending—we could expect declines in demand for Treasury and fixed-income assets. However, the Federal Reserve is still actively purchasing notes, which will likely increase demand. Ultimately, it makes predictions on the effect of interest rates very tricky.</p>
<p>One thing is certain: not increasing the debt ceiling will make us travel to a new equilibrium, which almost always means a certain level of disruption in the short term. But shouldn&#8217;t such change be the easiest way to mitigate short-term concerns while moving to a more sustainable long-term equilibrium?</p>
<p>Those who are worried about default should realize that our ability to remain solvent depends on our continued commitment and ability to pay the interest on our debt, not on our willingness to raise the debt ceiling. As long as we continue to run deficits, our ability to borrow money cheaply, with low interest rates, is the key to avoiding default.</p>
<p>This could change if investors become worried about their chances of getting paid back. In that case, they might find some safer or more profitable place to invest their capital than the United States government. Also, they may demand an increase in the interest rate for the money they lend. Either of these changes could result if the U.S. government’s reputation as a conscientious debtor is called into question by a continued increase in the demand for funds.</p>
<p>The bottom line is that the government must make serious changes to the way it spends and borrows money, it must stop paying the interest on the debt by borrowing additional money, and it must stop making benefit promises it will never be able to deliver.</p>
<p>Both Moody’s and Standard &amp; Poor’s have warned that our credit rating will be reduced unless we get a handle on our national debt. We’ve heard a lot recently about the European debt crisis, but, as one senior Chinese banking official recently noted, in some ways the U.S. financial position is more perilous than Europe’s. &#8220;We should be clear in our minds that the fiscal situation in the United States is much worse than in Europe,&#8221; he recently told reporters. &#8220;In one or two years, when the European debt situation stabilizes, [the] attention of financial markets will definitely shift to the United States. At that time, U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar will experience considerable declines.&#8221;</p>
<p><strong>Myth 2: These are extraordinary times. We need to increase the debt ceiling now and will cut spending later.</strong></p>
<p><strong>Fact 2: In the last 10 years, Congress has raised the debt ceiling 10 times, sometimes twice in the same year. Congress has raised the debt ceiling 98 times since 1940. The government has lost its ability to monitor its spending. Having to raise the debt ceiling again is a sign that Congress has failed to do what is necessary to get the nation’s finances in order.</strong></p>
<p><strong>Myth 3: Democrats are the big spenders and are the party of debt. We know this because they now want to increase the debt ceiling while Republicans oppose the increase.</strong></p>
<p><strong>Fact 3: Historically, the party in power always wants to increase spending. As a result, lawmakers in power—regardless of party affiliation—overwhelmingly vote to increase the debt limit.</strong></p>
<p>In conclusion, the data presented above reveals that the debt limit, far from providing fiscal discipline, has in fact served only as a symbolic cap that Congress, regardless of the party in power, will simply push higher and higher as spending increases dictate.</p></blockquote>
<p>(See complete Reason article with graphs and charts <a href="http://reason.org/news/show/the-truth-about-the-debt-ceiling"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><span style="color: #0000ff">here</span></span></a>.)</p>
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