Tomorrow the University of Arizona will present some political theater.  In the evening, UA presents will feature a troupe from several South Pacific islands in a program titled  “Water is Rising.”  Preceding that on Friday afternoon is a discussion led by the UofA  Institute of the Environment titled “Vanishing Islands: Culture and Climate Change.” (See article here.)

It is unfortunate that what will probably be an entertaining evening of song and dance is being used as political propaganda posing Pacific islanders as victims of global warming-caused sea level rise that will inundate their homes.  Such propaganda is not new.  Back in 2009, Members of the Maldives’ Cabinet donned scuba gear and held a meeting under water in a publicity stunt about sea level rise.

The UA’s Institute of the Environment has also, in the past, issued alarmist articles about sea level rise flooding low-lying coastlines, see Science Fiction from the University of Arizona.

If you decide to go to the afternoon discussion, here are a few things you should know. Auckland University Professor Paul Kench has measured 27 islands where local sea levels have risen 120mm – an average of 2mm a year – over the past 60 years, and found that just four had diminished in size, the remaining 23 had either stayed the same or grown bigger, according to the research published in a scientific journal, Global and Planetary Change.

The Australian government has been monitoring sea level on Pacific islands with modern instruments since 1992.   In the case of Tuvalu, they state, “If   the   depression   of   the   1998   cyclone   is   ignored,  there   was   no   change   in   sea   level   at   Tuvalu between 1994 and 2009: 14 years. The recent slight fall would probably be related to the recent earthquake.”

Here is the Australian record of sea level for Tuvalu.  Other South Pacific islands show a similar record.

See also:

Sea Level Rising?

Sea Level Rise Declining says EU

Obama parts the waters, sea level drops

Size matters in sea level studies

In a previous post Pained Earth’s summer to forget: the rest of the story, I criticized an AP story printed in the Arizona Daily Star as inaccurate and alarmist.

Within that story I had written: The story states: “The melting of land ice into the oceans is causing about 60 percent of the accelerating rise in sea levels worldwide, with thermal expansion from warming waters causing the rest. The WMO’S World Climate Research Program says seas are rising by 1.34 inches per decade, about twice the 20th century’s average.” The pretended “acceleration” is the result of cherry-picking starting and ending points. The rate of sea level rise is cyclic, but the overall trend is downward. For a detailed analysis of sea level rise, and to see why the WMO statement is dissembling, see my article, Sea Level Rising? Also, a new paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research, says “The global mean sea level for the period January 1900 to December 2006 is estimated to rise at a rate of 1.56 ± 0.25 mm/yr which is reasonably consistent with earlier estimates, but we do not find significant acceleration.”

One of the commenters complained that “New Zealand has already accepted climate change refugees from Tuvalu, an island that has seen the ocean rise around it more than eight inches over the last twenty years or so.” He took this as evidence of anthropogenic global warming. (The fact that the globe has been recently warming does not speak to the cause.)

The Australian government has been monitoring sea level on Pacific islands with modern instruments since 1992. In the case of Tuvalu, they state, “If the depression of the 1998 cyclone is ignored, there was no change is sea level at Tuvalu between 1994 and 2009: 14 years. The recent slight fall would probably be related to the recent earthquake.”

Sea level at other South Pacific islands is similar. There are seasonal oscillations and variations due to cyclones and earthquakes, but the overall trend is flat.

For more detail on the Australian study, see here.