If there’s an elected body with a lower job approval rating than the U.S. Congress it has to be the Arizona Legislature.
Republicans and Democrats alike have been critical of how the Legislature has handled the state’s budget crisis.
Add to that the hoopla over SB 1070 and Prop. 100 and you get an electorate ready to throw the bums out.
On May 26, candidates for Legislature had to turn in their nominating petitions for the Aug. 24 primary election.
In past elections there have been huge numbers of uncontested primaries and numerous uncontested general election races.
This year it’s a mixed bag. While Democrats will challenge Republicans in almost every race in the general election in November – 26 of 30 Senate races and 28 of 30 House races – Democratic primary voters will have few choices in the primary.
Nearly three quarters of Democratic primary races are uncontested; that is, the candidates in the primary will automatically advance to the general election.
Republicans though are duking it out amongst themselves more.
While Republicans will challenge Democrats in almost every race in the general – 23 of 30 Senate races and 27 of 30 House races – only 24 of their 60 primaries are uncontested.
One contested House Republican primary includes Speaker of the House Kirk Adams.
He’s running for re-election in District 19 while his seatmate, Rich Crandall, is termed out and running for Senate. There are two other Republicans trying to pick up Crandall’s seat, which means in theory, Adams must fight his own party to advance to the general.
What’s more, Republican incumbents face primary challengers in 13 of 60 races while only seven Democratic primary races feature challenges of incumbents.
So, will we throw the bums out and inject new blood into the Legislature to undo much of the damage that’s been done the past three years?
It’s unlikely, but there’s a chance. We’ll know more after the primary. If all the incumbents advance, it’s a good bet little will change in the general. We’ll end up with most of the same characters who’ve been there the past two years.
But if we see incumbents knocked off by their own party, it could be a sign of widespread discontent.
Other factors that could influence the election include the peculiar tea party movement, the immigration debate in Congress, the economy, the SB 1070 boycott and Independent voter turnout.
Independents are key in a majority of races. Only one legislative district in the state has a majority of voters belonging to one party, District 2 in Northern Arizona where Democrats comprise 57 percent of registered voters.
That said, there are districts where Republicans outnumber Democrats 2-to-1, and some districts where the reverse is true. So independents are less influential there but at least in theory, they still hold the balance of power.
Will they vote? Probably not in the primary, which means the general election will again boast really conservative Republicans and really liberal Democrats.
We won’t know until January whether that will result in a better Legislature.
Be sure to vote Aug. 24.
Analysis of the candidate filings for House and Senate:*
There are 30 legislative districts in Arizona. One senator is elected in each district and two representatives.
How many open senate seats (no incumbent running)? 15 (50%)
How many open House seats? 21 (35%)
Percentage of open seats in entire Legislature? 40% (36 of 90)
How many current House members running for Senate (some may be termed out due to term limits)? 15 (25%)
How many current Senate members running for House? 4 (13%)
How many new Legislative members will there be next session if all incumbents win and all current members seeking to switch houses win? 20 (22%) (One race has two current House members running for one Senate seat, so only 18 current members have a chance to switch houses and return to the Legislature)
How many uncontested Democratic primary races? 44
How many uncontested Republican primary races? 24
How many Senate races with no Democrat running? 4
How many Senate races with no Republican running? 7
How many House races with no Democrat running? 2
How many House races with no Republican running? 3
How many Senate races are entirely uncontested – only one candidate entered and will automatically win the primary and the general? 8 (4 Republicans and 4 Democrats (5 if you discount the District 24 race in which Democrat Amanda Aguirre’s only opponent is a Libertarian. No Libertarian has been elected to the Legislature in recent history, if ever)).
How many House races that are entirely uncontested – only two candidates entered will automatically win the primary and the general? 1
Senate Democratic primaries in which an incumbent faces a primary challenge? 1 (Dist. 16)
Senate Republican primaries in which an incumbent faces a primary challenge? 4 (Dists. 4, 6, 12, 30)
House Democratic primaries in which an incumbent faces a primary challenge? 6 (Dists. 2, 13, 16, 23, 25, 28) (Any primary in which there is at least one Democratic incumbent and three or more Democrats running)
House Republican primaries in which an incumbent faces a primary challenge? 9 (Dists. 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 22, 26, 30) (Any primary in which there is at least one Republican incumbent and three or more Republicans running)
Republican Senate seats that will remain Republican after the general? 4 (Republicans currently hold 18 Senate seats, Democrats 12.)
Democratic Senate seats that will remain Democratic after the general? 7 (8 if you count Aguirre)
Republican House seats that will remain Republican after the general? 4 (2 RR districts) (Republicans currently hold both House seats in 14 legislative districts and Democrats hold both seats in 10 legislative districts. Six districts are split. That gives Republicans 34 seats to 26 for Democrats.)
Democratic House seats that will remain Democratic after the general? 4 (2 DD districts)
*I’ve double-checked these numbers but I may have made tabulation errors. If you find any, please point them out and I’ll correct the record.
Map of Arizona Legislative districts. Districts 6 through 22 are in the Phoenix metro area.
List of candidates qualifying for the Aug. 24 primary (incumbents in bold):
State Senator – District No. 1
Democratic BOB DONAHUE
Republican STEVE PIERCE
State Representative – District No. 1 (One seat open)
Democratic LINDSAY BELL
Republican NOEL CAMPBELL
Republican KAREN FANN
Republican ANDY TOBIN
District 1 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31540 | 290 | 915 | 52803 | 37884 | 123432 |
State Senator – District No. 2 (Open)
Democratic KEE ALLEN BEGAY
Democratic GLORIA HALE-SHOWALTER
Democratic JACK C. JACKSON
Democratic SYLVIA LAUGHTER
State Representative – District No. 2 (One seat open)
Democratic PAT CARR
Democratic TOM CHABIN
Democratic ALBERT HALE
Democratic ALBERT TOM
Libertarian FRANK MULLIGAN
District 2 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55712 | 211 | 921 | 14363 | 25703 | 96910 |
State Senator – District No. 3
Democratic BETH WEISSER
Republican RON GOULD
State Representative – District No. 3
Republican WYATT BROOKS
Republican RAY CULLISON
Republican DORIS GOODALE
Republican NANCY MCLAIN
District 3 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30274 | 115 | 571 | 48262 | 40858 | 120080 |
State Senator – District No. 4 (Open)
Democratic SUE DOLPHIN
Republican TONY BOUIE
Republican SCOTT BUNDGAARD
Republican SHAWN KOHNER
State Representative – District No. 4 (One seat open)
Democratic KARINA GUERRERO
Republican JUDY M. BURGES
Republican JACK W. HARPER
Republican ERIC SHEATS
Republican TIM ZOBEL
District 4 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39897 | 111 | 785 | 74381 | 47963 | 163137 |
State Senator – District No. 5
Democratic ELAINE BOHLMEYER
Republican SYLVIA TENNEY ALLEN
Republican BILL KONOPNICKI
State Representative – District No. 5 (Open)
Democratic BILL SHUMWAY
Democratic PRESCOTT WINSLOW
Republican KEITH ALEXANDER
Republican BRENDA BARTON
Republican CHESTER CRANDELL
District 5 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38168 | 73 | 466 | 39316 | 22115 | 100138 |
State Senator – District No. 6
Democratic PAT FLICKNER
Republican DAVID BRASWELL
Republican LORI KLEIN
State Representative – District No. 6
Democratic TERI CONRAD
Republican DAVID E. FITZGERALD
Republican STEVE KAISER
Republican JOHN ADAM KOWALSKI
Republican AMANDA REEVE
Republican RICK ROBINSON
Republican CARL SEEL
Republican CLINT VAN WUFFEN
District 6 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28904 | 142 | 904 | 45839 | 34578 | 110367 |
State Senator – District No. 7 (Open)
Democratic ERIC SHELLEY
Republican RAY BARNES
Republican NANCY BARTO
Republican BRAD BUCH
Republican BOB GREEN
State Representative – District No. 7 (Open)
Democratic DON CHILTON
Democratic PETER ROYERS
Libertarian JIM IANNUZO
Republican CRAIG BARTON
Republican KRISTEN BURROUGHS
Republican HEATHER CARTER
Republican MICHAEL COSKUN
Republican MICHAEL EDWARD FARRAR
Republican DAVID SMITH
Republican HOWARD LEE SPRAGUE
District 7 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26742 | 96 | 706 | 48129 | 34107 | 109780 |
State Senator – District No. 8 (open)
Democratic STUART TURNANSKY
Republican MICHELE REAGAN
State Representative – District No. 8 (One seat open)
Democratic JOHN KRIEKARD
Democratic W. JOHN WILLIAMSON
Republican MICHAEL BLAIRE
Republican JOHN KAVANAGH
Republican RAY MAHOUBI
Republican PAULA PENNYPACKER
Republican MICHELLE UGENTI
Republican ERIC ULIS
District 8 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28214 | 108 | 650 | 55316 | 36432 | 120720 |
State Senator – District No. 9 (Open)
Democratic SHERI VAN HORSEN
Libertarian MICHAEL PATTI
Republican RICK MURPHY
State Representative – District No. 9 (One seat open)
Democratic SHIRLEY MCALLISTER
Republican RICK GRAY
Republican DEBBIE LESKO
District 9 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31013 | 79 | 572 | 42465 | 29528 | 103657 |
State Senator – District No. 10
Democratic JUSTIN JOHNSON
Republican LINDA GRAY
State Representative – District No. 10
Democratic AARON JAHNEKE
Democratic JACKIE THRASHER
Republican BILL ADAMS
Republican DOUG Q”" QUELLAND
Republican JAMES WEIERS
Republican KIMBERLY YEE
District 10 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24-937 | 108 | 805 | 26172 | 23723 | 75745 |
State Senator – District No. 11 (Open)
Democratic RITA DICKINSON
Republican ANNA MARIA BRENNAN
Republican RICH DAVIS
Republican ADAM DRIGGS
Republican ANDREW SMIGIELSKI
State Representative – District No. 11(One seat open)
Democratic ERIC MEYER
Republican SHAWNNA BOLICK
Republican KATE BROPHY MCGEE
Republican BEV KRAFT
Republican DUSTI MORRIS
Republican ERIC WEST
District 11 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32240 | 125 | 862 | 44761 | 25926 | 103914 |
State Senator – District No. 12
Democratic TYLER KISSELL
Libertarian MICHAEL WHITE
Republican JOHN NELSON
Republican EVE NUNEZ
Republican CLARK SILVER
State Representative – District No. 12
Democratic ANGELA COTERA
Green JUSTIN DAHL
Republican STEVE MONTENEGRO
Republican JERRY WEIERS
District 12 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47078 | 134 | 1290 | 52031 | 49464 | 149997 |
State Senator – District No. 13 (Open)
Democratic STEVE GALLARDO
Democratic MARTHA GARCIA
State Representative – District No. 13 (One seat open)
Democratic LYDIA HERN¡NDEZ
Democratic RICHARD MIRANDA
Democratic MARTIN J. QUEZADA
Democratic ANNA TOVAR
District 13 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24222 | 27 | 1207 | 9903 | 18372 | 53731 |
State Senator – District No. 14 (Open)
Democratic ROBERT MEZA
State Representative – District No. 14 (One seat open)
Democratic CHAD CAMPBELL
Democratic DEBBIE MCCUNE-DAVIS
District 14 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17288 | 63 | 744 | 7110 | 12805 | 38010 |
State Senator – District No. 15 (Open)
Democratic KYRSTEN SINEMA
Republican BOB THOMAS
State Representative – District No. 15 (Open)
Democratic LELA ALSTON
Democratic KEN CLARK
Democratic KATIE HOBBS
Green LUISA EVONNE VALDEZ
Republican CAROLINE B. CONDIT
Republican PAUL YODER
District 15 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24441 | 163 | 892 | 13399 | 17739 | 56634 |
State Senator – District No. 16
Democratic VICTOR JETT CONTRERAS
Democratic LEAH LANDRUM
State Representative – District No. 16 (One seat open)
Democratic CLOVES CAMPBELL
Democratic RUBEN GALLEGO
Democratic SANDRA GONZALES
Democratic CRISTY LOPEZ
Democratic CATHERINE H. MIRANDA
Democratic JIM MUNOZ
Green ¡NGEL TORRES
Republican MICHAEL GULAR
District 16 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39789 | 97 | 934 | 12302 | 26537 | 79659 |
State Senator – District No. 17 (Open)
Democratic DAVID SCHAPIRA
Libertarian GARRET CHARTIER-DICKIE
Republican WENDY ROGERS
State Representative – District No. 17 (One seat open)
Democratic ED ABLESER
Democratic P. BEN ARREDONDO
Green ANTHONY GRANDPA”" GOSHORN
Green GREGOR KNAUER
Libertarian CRISTIAN DUMITRESCU
Libertarian DAMIAN TRABEL
Republican DONALD HAWKER
Republican AUGUSTUS SHAW
District 17 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28147 | 245 | 1071 | 24569 | 25851 | 79883 |
State Senator – District No. 18
Democratic ROBERT HERNANDEZ MCDONALD
Democratic ANDREW SHERWOOD
Libertarian ANDREA GARCIA
Republican RUSSELL PEARCE
State Representative – District No. 18
Democratic MICHAEL CONWAY
Libertarian CHRIS A.H. WILL
Republican CECIL ASH
Republican STEVE COURT
District 18 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18453 | 106 | 568 | 26465 | 20503 | 66095 |
State Senator – District No. 19 (Open)
Republican RICH CRANDALL
Republican JAMES MOLINA
State Representative – District No. 19 (One seat open)
Democratic KIT FILBEY
Republican KIRK ADAMS
Republican JUSTIN OLSON
Republican SCOTT PERKINSON
District 19 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26146 | 107 | 636 | 49765 | 32130 | 108784 |
State Senator – District No. 20 (Open)
Republican JOHN MCCOMISH
State Representative – District No. 20 (One seat open)
Democratic RAE WATERS
Republican JEFF DIAL
Republican BOB ROBSON
Republican CHRISTOPHER TOLINO
District 20 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29815 | 136 | 750 | 38574 | 30254 | 99529 |
State Senator – District No. 21(Open)
Republican STEVE YARBROUGH
State Representative – District No. 21 (Open)
Democratic SHARON SPANE
Green LINDA J. MACÕAS
Republican SCOTT BERGREN
Republican TOM FORESE
Republican J.D. MESNARD
Republican VENESSA WHITENER
District 21 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36424 | 164 | 927 | 56402 | 42776 | 136693 |
State Senator – District No. 22 (Open)
Republican ANDY BIGGS
State Representative – District No. 22
Republican EDDIE FARNSWORTH
Republican LAURIN HENDRIX
Republican PAUL HOWELL
Republican BRETT PETILLO
Republican KELLY TOWNSEND
Republican STEVE URIE
District 22 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37948 | 145 | 979 | 71396 | 49940 | 160408 |
State Senator – District No. 23
Democratic REBECCA RIOS
Republican MATT BYERS
Republican STEVE SMITH
State Representative – District No. 23
Democratic ERNEST BUSTAMANTE
Democratic BARBARA MCGUIRE
Democratic RALPH VARELA
Republican JOHN FILLMORE
Republican FRANK PRATT
District 23 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50960 | 141 | 915 | 43587 | 49414 | 145017 |
State Senator – District No. 24
Democratic AMANDA AGUIRRE
Libertarian JACK KRETZER
State Representative – District No. 24
Democratic LYNNE PANCRAZI
Democratic JOHN WEIL
Republican RUSS JONES
District 24 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29934 | 53 | 405 | 25452 | 25934 | 81778 |
State Senator – District No. 25
Democratic MANUEL V. MANNY”" ALVAREZ
Republican GAIL GRIFFIN
Republican CRAIG SMITH
State Representative – District No. 25
Democratic KEN DAVIS
Democratic PATRICIA V. FLEMING
Democratic RUBEN ORTEGA
Republican PEGGY JUDD
Republican DAVID STEVENS
District 25 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39124 | 164 | 622 | 30427 | 29674 | 100011 |
State Senator – District No. 26
Democratic CHERYL CAGE
Republican AL MELVIN
State Representative – District No. 26
Democratic WILLIAM WALLACE
Democratic NANCY YOUNG WRIGHT
Republican WILLIAM “WADE” MCLEAN
Republican TERRI PROUD
Republican VIC WILLIAMS
District 26 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36673 | 162 | 696 | 45545 | 31660 | 114736 |
State Senator – District No. 27 (Open)
Democratic OLIVIA CAJERO BEDFORD
State Representative – District No. 27 (Open)
Democratic JOHN BERNAL
Democratic ERIC CARBAJAL BUSTAMANTE
Democratic DUSTIN COX
Democratic BOB GILBY
Democratic SALLY ANN GONZALES
Democratic SAMI HAMED
Democratic JOHN KROMKO
Democratic MACARIO SALDATE
Green KENT SOLBERG
Republican ROBERT I. COMPTON
District 27 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39666 | 276 | 797 | 15879 | 23201 | 79819 |
State Senator – District No. 28
Democratic PAULA ABOUD
State Representative – District No. 28 (One seat open)
Democratic STEVE FARLEY
Democratic TED PREZELSKI
Democratic MOHUR SIDHWA
Democratic TIM SULTAN
Democratic BRUCE WHEELER
Republican GREG KRINO
Republican KEN SMALLEY
District 28 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36273 | 397 | 864 | 21627 | 22204 | 81365 |
State Senator – District No. 29
Democratic LINDA LOPEZ
State Representative – District No. 29
Democratic MATT HEINZ
Democratic DANIEL PATTERSON
Republican PAT KILBURN
District 29 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31035 | 131 | 673 | 14991 | 20595 | 67425 |
State Senator – District No. 30
Democratic TODD CAMENISCH
Republican FRANK ANTENORI
Republican MARIAN ANN MCCLURE
State Representative – District No. 30
Democratic ANDREA DALESSANDRO
Republican BRIAN R. ABBOTT
Republican DAVID GOWAN
Republican KURT KNURR
Republican PARRALEE SCHNEIDER
Republican DOUG SPOSITO
Republican TED VOGT
District 30 Voter Registration:
| Democrats | Green | Libertarian | Republican | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40729 | 176 | 879 | 57560 | 39959 | 139303 |