Every now and then, the stock market exhibits irrational exuberance or pessimism. But these days, the market’s long-term trend is not irrational.
For the first time since the Depression, events have aligned to create the very real possibility of something previously impossible: The United States could fundamentally transition toward a more European welfare-state model.
“The market” is simply millions of decision-makers buying or selling based on future expectations. They recognize a perfect storm when they see one.
First, take vast economic upheaval and pain that demands attention.
Second, add a popular new president with the “Old Keynesian” belief that solutions lie in major government spending and growth (whereas modern Keynsian models demonstrate limited impact of spending).
Third, add the highly rare occurrence that both legislative bodies are of the same mindset with each other and the president, and the even rarer ability to marginalize most opposition toward passing a radical restructuring into law.
Finally, add the fact that this theoretical restructuring is no longer theory: the first steps already are being taken.
I ask: Why wouldn’t the markets seem subdued? It was entirely logical for share values to descend from their October 2007 high once we realized that our financial system had the cancer of securitized “nonconforming” loans that could never be repaid.
Just as it was entirely logical for 2008 markets to recognize that we would probably have a President Obama – with a more European bent – dealing with our economic illness come January 2009.
Unfortunately, the European philosophy accepts there will be a permanent hit to business and employment because of the higher taxes needed to pay for higher government spending.
Presidents and policymakers should never react to day-to-day stock market movements, instead maintaining a long-term focus.
But a true long-term focus will look to the past and recognize that U.S. affluence has been based on encouraging U.S. business and rejecting the European model.
Yes, the economy is sick, and we are working the cancer out of our system. But we shouldn’t risk killing the patient in the process.
Shaunti Feldhahn (scfeldhahn@yahoo.com) is a conservative Christian author and speaker, and married mother of two.