Tucson Citizen.com

Sneak Peak: Stoops and Wildcats need to turn advantages into huge season

by on Aug. 16, 2010, under Sports

Cat fans, raise your hand if you think it’s time.
Photo by Rob Schumacher/The Arizona Republic

They say if you want to accomplish things in life you need to write them down and set deadlines. Often those deadlines are just pulled out of thin air. But sometimes your self-imposed due date is based on a narrow window of opportunity.

Mike Stoops, this is your window.

The 2010 Arizona Wildcats absolutely need to have a peak football season. Not from a “Win or else” standpoint but more like: “If not now, when?”

It starts with the depth chart. If you scan the two-deep a couple things jump up and scream at you. Of the top ten guys listed on the offensive line seven are seniors. It’s very possible the Cats will be starting seniors at all five O-line positions against Toledo. You can’t get any more now-or-never than that.

Nic Grigsby will be gone after this year and he could be taking some 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns with him. Nick Foles and Juron Criner are juniors but there’s no guarantee one or both of them don’t absolutely dominate this year and go pro early.

Foles’ backup is also significant. Matt Scott surprisingly didn’t transfer so he gives the UA the rare luxury of two upperclassman signal-callers with starting experience. Obviously you never want your #1 guy to get hurt but this wouldn’t be like the Willie-Tuitama-to-Adam-Austin drop-off in 2006.

So the 2011 Arizona offense could be doing a sizable chunk of rebuilding. But that’s OK because the defense is so young, right?

I know it hurts but… Not exactly.

When you look at the defensive line you find another three seniors. Ricky Elmore and Brooks Reed have 25 sacks between them and the pass-rushing pair will be very hard to replace.

But wait, you say, what about the five new defensive starters behind them? That has to lower this year’s expectations a bit. Good point. In order to find a Pac-10 champion with an average defense we have to go all the way back to…2009. Oregon was only 4th in the Pac-10 in both scoring defense and total defense last year.

If you’re elite on one side of the ball you can get away with being merely decent on the other side. And if you believe strength along both lines is crucial (and you should) then this is the season you have been waiting for.

Then there’s the rest of the league. It doesn’t do you much good to peak if somebody else peaks higher. The good news is everybody has some question marks.

Oregon’s question mark was visited by the police one too many times and got kicked off the team. With Jeremiah Masoli at quarterback the Ducks wouldn’t just be the runaway pick to repeat as Pac-10 champs, they would be on the short list of national title contenders. Can one guy make that much of a difference? How did Oregon fare after Dennis Dixon went down in 2007? How does the 2009 game in Tucson end with anybody other than Masoli at QB?

Next up is the fall of Troy. Two years ago, after yet another 12-1 season, the question was if anyone else in the league would ever get within shouting distance of USC. But then the Reggie Bush investigation started heating up, Pete Carroll escaped to the NFL, and the NCAA dropped a bomb on Heritage Hall.

USC is a very interesting case from a rooting perspective this year. Every team obviously wants to beat the Trojans but after that you want them to win the rest of their games. They can hang losses on your competition without passing you in the standings or bowl pecking order. How many times do you get to play a season with a really talented team potentially assassinating your rivals without hurting you?

The schedule also works in Arizona’s favor in 2010. The 9th Pac-10 game is at home as are the games against USC and bowl regulars Oregon State and Cal. Iowa represents the highest profile non-conference home game since LSU came to town in 2003. There are going to be a lot of people in the stands which will help keep the big-game atmosphere at Arizona Stadium all season long.

Oh, and there’s the simple math. This is the last year a Pac-10 team only has to be better than nine other teams, since Utah and Colorado are already packing their bags.

It all adds up to tip the scales in the direction of the Wildcats. None of this guarantees anything, but if Mike Stoops has been waiting for the perfect opportunity to put it all together, that opportunity is here.

For Arizona Football, this has to be 1998 because next year could very well be 1999.

So. What exactly does a peak year look like?

Stay tuned…



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  • Mark Johnson

    Scott, I could not agree more. But. par for the course at Arizona Football, I can see Mike Stoops leaving when Foles leaves. Mike knows how hard it is to recruit kids to Tucson. He usually gets a few 4 stars and a bunch of 3 stars. Other schools that would take him can get 5s and 4s. I think Michigan as a rebuilding program. If he gets the rep as a turn-around coach, he will be gone soon.

    Certainly with all these seniors leaving, the program will be taking a step back. He can stay and rebuild again for 4 years and get the heat of being fired again or jump after showing a Michigan type school 3 bowl games in a row after taking over a train wreck. They could double his salery.

    I say he is gone.

    • http://uasports.net Scott Terrell

      Hi Mark!

      That’s an angle I didn’t even explore. Stoops has a “deadline” with all these seniors on his lines but the program as a whole may have a deadline if Stoops is thinking about moving on.

      If Stoops is dreaming of greener (and bigger) pastures I hope he stays until after he does something big instead of when Larry Smith jumped to USC right before Arizona reach its goals (which then didn’t get reached).

  • wildcatfight83

    Call me an optimist, but I don’t think Stoops is going anywhere for a while.  He’s got pretty good security here now which is something that he would not get at a big name school.  Big Brother Bob is doing well at a marquee school, but I think Mike knows how difficult that is.  As long as the AD keeps Stoops’ pay competitive and keeps the facilities up to date, Stoops will continue to try to build his program.  There’s something to be said about building up a program from nothing.  I think Stoops knows that.  He’s also said he wants to stay, but that could be BS.
    As for the defense.  I’m getting a little worried.  But all the videos I’ve seen of Stoops he doesn’t look terribly worried.  He’s either a great actor or he knows that things will jell.  As long as the LBs are serviceable, I think we will be fine.
    One thing worth saying about Oregon’s D last year though.  If you look at just Pac-10 play Oregon had the #1 D in yards allowed.  There’s a couple of reasons for that.  Oregon played a tougher OC schedule than Arizona and certainly ASU.  ASU’s stats were somewhat artificially inflated due to holding Idaho State to 53 yards and beating up LMU.  Also, Oregon didn’t have to play Oregon’s offense when it was really clicking.
    Still, I agree Arizona should have a Rose Bowl mentality this year.

  • sethers

    I agree with the outlook for this year. We should definately have high expectations for this team, but I also think that Arizona fans need to do away with the now or never mentality. Rather than looking at Arizona as a good football team, we need to view it as a winning and proud tradition that doesn’t just expect a good year here and there, but a program that reloads year after year and expects to be in contention for the Rose Bowl (or better). This is a city, a school and an athletic department that has the capability to produce that kind of tradition, but as long as we only expect one great year every once in a while we’ll never get there.  

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