Apprehensions of illegal aliens at the border are way down…why?

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Apprehensions of illegal aliens at the border are way down…why?

by Hugh Holub on Apr. 28, 2011, under border issues, border patrol, border patrol tucson sector, customs and border protection, drug smuggling, mexican drug cartels, politics

Seems like every where you look these days US Customs and Border Protection is touting statistics that apprehensions of illegal aliens is way down from previous levels.

The other day at the meeting between border ranchers and the Border Patrol it was noted that apprehensions in the Nogales Station area had dropped from something like 1,000 a day to 50.

Of course the story spin from the Department of Homeland Security is that the much higher numbers of Border Patrol agents deployed in the region is why apprehension levels are way down.

But there are many competing theories why the number of illegal aliens being caught in the Tucson Sector has dropped significantly.

SB 1070: One theory claims that because of Arizona passing SB 1070, illegal aliens are choosing to try and cross the border in Texas or California.

Economy: Another theory is that with the US economy in the tank…especially for construction work and the hospitality industry, there are way fewer jobs available to attract illegal immigrants.

BP effectiveness: The DHS theory is that with so many Border Patrol agents and technology out there, illegal immigrants are just not even trying to cross because they know the chances of being nabbed are really high.

There are two other explanations being offered for the reduction of illegal alien apprehensions.

Border Patrol agents under orders to not catch as many illegal aliens: There are reports coming from all directions originating with whistle blowing BP agents that they have been instructed to look the other way when they encounter illegal aliens, to greatly reduce the number of illegals “seen” who end up being counted as “got aways” or actually caught.

BP and DHS officials vehemently deny this claim.

All I can say at this point is there are a serious number of people who are willing to testify to Congress under oath this is in fact true.

Top officials of DHS and CPB are cooking the books regarding illegal alien apprehensions to create the impression of effectiveness of DHS and CPB strategies.

If the ATF “gunwalker” scandal doesn’t take down some high-ranking government officials, the effort to manipulate reality on the border will empty some offices in Washington DC.

Barak Obama is being betrayed by senior officials in his administration and he really needs to get on top of both the ATF gunwalker issue and the games being played by DHS on the border before this mess gets hung around his neck like a rotting albatross.

Drug cartel control of illegal alien flow: Another equally ominous theory…which is in fact supported by BP officials talking off the record…is that the drug cartels have taken over control of major smuggling routes into Arizona and are “managing” the number of illegal aliens allowed into these corridors so as to not attract a lot of Border Patrol deployment in certain areas…such as west of Nogales.

In one scenario the cartels will send a group of illegal aliens into Arizona to attract Border Patrol agents away from another area through which drugs are being smuggled.

In a related scenario, the drug cartels are taking total control over the coyote system and flow of illegal aliens as this is a big money-maker. Using spotters on mountain tops in southern Arizona they can direct both caravans of drug smugglers as well as groups of illegal aliens around Border Patrol deployment…of course for a premium charge. Those who fail to comply with cartel control end up buried is mass graves somewhere in northern Mexico. It is probably just a question of time before we see south of our border what is being discovered in Texas where cartels have taken control of people smuggling and eliminated anyone unwilling to become a drug mule for them or pay their “crossing” fees.

Thus the number of illegal aliens entering at any point in time may be much higher than the Border Patrol is aware of due to the use of more technology by the smugglers to evade the Border Patrol deployment with a higher cercentage of illegals succeeding in entering the US and not being caught or even “seen” by the Border Patrol.

Like they say….if you build a better mousetrap someone will build an even better mouse.

It is an absolute fact that the cartels are perched on mountain tops in Arizona guiding loads of drugs and illegal aliens through the Border Patrol deployment….and precious little is being done to knock the spotters off those mountain tops and keep them off them.

Hence their reduction of “catches” is not a result of BP effectiveness…but more a result of the higher sophistication of the smuggling system.

Or the reduction is being manipulated by the BP agents being told to look the other way.

Or the reduction is a result of a conscious management of feeding illegal aliens into the country and keeping smuggling corridors free for drug smuggling efforts by the cartels.

Given the consequences of these three options….one would really hope the reduction of illegal aliens was being caused by SB 1070 or the economy…because these scenarios –cooking the books, better cartel technology deployed on our mountain tops, and cartel immigrant flow management… have serious implications for the United States government.