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AG's Wildcat Report - Dispatches on the Wildcats, from Anthony Gimino

Arizona Wildcats football: The season prediction

by on Sep. 02, 2011, under Sports


How many times will Mike Stoops be celebrating this season? Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Arizona coach Mike Stoops, not even 30 seconds into his first weekly news conference of the season, said, “We’re tired of talking about it; we’re ready to go out and see what we’ve got.”

Amen to that.

If he’s tired of talking about it, I’m tired of writing about it after covering all of camp and posting 23 Wildcats-related stories in the past 23 hours.

There is only one thing left in our 24 Hours of Football Blogging series:

The season prediction.

From the beginning of camp until now, I might be slightly more optimistic about the Wildcats’ chances, and would be more so if not for the late-camp ACL tear of cornerback Jonathan McKnight. Will that injury cost a victory at some point in the season?

Arizona held two public scrimmages, neither of which was particularly instructive; these things are always vanilla. There were some visible tweaks, though, which you should see soon, perhaps Saturday night in the opener against NAU.

We saw some Pistol-style offense — with a running back behind the quarterback in the shotgun formation, and it looks as if first year full-time defensive coordinator Tim Kish will be more aggressive along the defensive front this season.

Some of those strategic modifications add to the unpredictability of an Arizona season that I consider already hard to predict. Anything from four to eight wins in the regular season wouldn’t surprise me. As Stoops says, this team is an odd mix of veterans and youngsters. The presence of the veterans tells me eight victories. The youth suggests four is closer to the mark.

Split the difference?

Let’s take Arizona’s three toughest games — Oklahoma State, Stanford, Oregon — and just give the Cats a loss. Let’s give UA wins for the bottom two — NAU and Louisiana-Lafayette.

That leaves seven games up for grabs.

Arizona isn’t good enough to run away and hide from Pac-12 teams. Neither is Arizona so outclassed that Pac-12 teams can face-plant the Cats into the turf.

The Wildcats played five conference games last season that were decided by eight points or less. Toss-ups, basically. They played seven league games in 2009 that were decided by eight points or less.

They are 6-6 in those close games. Win some, lose some. What do you expect?

If Arizona wins four of its seven conference “toss-up” games against teams not named Stanford and Oregon, it would be doing pretty well this season. And that would mean a six-win season.

It’s enticing to bet on a little bit more because of the prolific passing game, but it’s not wise to do so because of the inexperience on the offensive line. Arizona’s dispersal of experienced talent among its position groups just isn’t quite in sync.

The future looks bright beyond 2011 because the offensive and defensive lines project to grow up together and be something fierce, and Arizona has a quarterback succession plan with (perhaps) Matt Scott in 2012, and Tom Savage in 2012 and 2013. There appear to be no long-term issues in the secondary, at receiver or at running back.

But for now … let’s call this a 6-6 season.

Anybody up for a trip to New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque?

EDITOR’S NOTE: This is the 24th installment of our 24 Hours of Arizona Football Blogging. Miss anything? Check out the entire series with the “24 hours of blogging” tag.



  • Fraser007

    Great article. But will you repost this at the end of the season to see just how good it was??? Come on do it!
    You do great work but……I think they will do better. These pre-season predictions are bunk. One mistake either way can be big. Like keeping A. Zendejas off the field (please) Or a pass bounce the wrong way.

    • Anthony Gimino

      No need to repost; it lives on forever on the internet … but good or bad, I’ll live with the prediction, own up to it either way.

      Predictions are mostly bunk for the very reasons you state — one mistake, a couple of plays here and there, could swing the season a couple of games in either direction. And who knows about injuries.

      But, hey, it’s fun to speculate and try to put a smidge of logic behind it … and then whatever happens, happens. Let the games begin.

      • Fraser007

        Thanks!  BEAR DOWN.

  • lemonhead

    I think we win one at home against Oregon or Stanford.  Then we win the close ones without any bonehead moves from the coaching staff.  Be aggressive and bear down.  Let Foles air it out.

  • chuck freitas

    6&6 is close enough. I predict 5&7

  • Mark B. Evans

    For what it’s worth, here’s what I think:

    NAU – W

    OSU – L

    Stanford – L

    Oregon – L

    USC – W (I got a feeling about this game, I don’t think USC is as good as everyone thinks because I think Kiffin’s a great coordinator, terrible head coach – he reminds me of Josh McDaniels).

    UCLA – W

    Washington – L (Unlike Kiffin, Sarkissian can coach and the game’s in Seattle)

    Utah – W (pick ‘em, actually, but since there are no ties anymore, I’m going with my homies)

    Colorado – W

    ASU – L

    ULL – W

    Final record = 6-6.

    That said, ASU, Utah, Washington, USC and Stanford (I think Luck and Foles could get into a ridiculous shoot out) games could all go the other way, which would make them 7-5. Seven and five with this schedule and this kiddie corps offensive line and shredded-knee defense would be an incredible accomplishment.

  • Jim Sanders

    I’ve been thinking about Stanford.

    1.  They lost their coach, whom I beleive was a great one.
    2.  Apparently they lost many recievers
    3.  They lost three offensive linemen
    4.  There defenese was rarely tested as their offense was on the field so much

    I do not expect the offense to be as good.  I do not expect Stanford, overall, to be as good.  Playing here in the heat, I think we can winn that game.  It will be tough but we can do it.  However, Stanford still has to be favored.

  • sethers

    I just wish I was tailgating right now.

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